大豆密植小气候效应及高产机理分析

在田间实测资料的基础上，研究了密植大豆田小气候效应，并进一步分析了密植大豆田的高产机理，为探索作物合理密植以及种植制度的优化提供相应的依据。     

大豆密植小气候效应及高产机理分析

在田间实测资料的基础上 ,研究了密植大豆田小气候效应 ,并进一步分析了密植大豆田的高产机理 ,为探索作物合理密植以及种植制度的优化提供相应的依据。     

紫外线辐射增加对大豆的影响及其估算

在田间及盆栽试验中观测到经超量紫外线（UV280～400 nm）辐射处理的大豆作物，其株型、生理活动及产量均受到不同程度的影响，其影响量随UV辐射强度，大豆品种以及环境条件不同而异。文章还给出了计算紫外线辐射对大豆影响程度的公式，该计算方法效果较好。     

黑龙江省大豆产量丰歉年型气象指标的初步研究

通过回归模型对中国大豆主产区黑龙江省1970－1995年大豆产量丰歉年型的气象指标进行了初步研究。结果表明，这些影响大豆产量丰歉年型的气象指标具有较高的指示性，可供农业气象业务服务和大豆产量预报使用。     

OTC-1型开顶式气室中CO2对大豆影响的试验结果

利用OTC-1型开顶式气室对大豆进行了长时期不同CO_2浓度处理的接触试验,结果表明:不同CO_2浓度处理对大豆生长发育、生物产量、籽粒产量及叶片光合作用率等影响显著,且均为正效应。     

九三地区大豆产量模型和气象因子分析

对九三地区1970－1995年大豆单产与气象因子进行了分析，建立时间序列分析模型，求出了气象产量。利用逐步回归方法，建立了大豆单产与各气象因子的多元线性回归预测模型，找到影响大豆产量的主要气象因子。     

东北地区大豆生产的气候资源潜力实现率及其生产建议

本文分析了１９９１年—１９９４年东北地区各地大豆的平均产量。采用统计—模拟模式计算了大豆生产的气候资源潜力，并与现实产量相比较得出气候资源潜力实现率。发现该地区大豆单产普遍偏低，气候资源潜力很大，尚待深入开发．最后提出了提高单产的途径和建议。     

驻马店地区大豆生育期旱涝分析

根据大豆生理特性及所需气候条件确定了大豆主要生育期旱涝指标．通过对丰歉年型气候特征分析发现，大豆全生育期干旱出现的频率远大于雨涝，但雨涝对大豆产量影响比干旱重，花荚期的旱涝对产量影响更为明显．     

扎兰屯地区近30年气象条件变化及与作物产量的关系

利用扎兰屯地区1971-2000年的温度和降水资料，分析大于等于0℃、10℃、15℃、20℃活动积温的变化及各界限温度持续期间降水的变化，发现它们都呈上升趋势。用10年直线滑动平均法对扎兰屯地区作物产量资料进行处理，分离出趋势产量和气象产量，计算各气象因子与气象产量的相关系数，分析气象因子对产量的影响。玉米和大豆产量与积温关系较大，积温增加使产量增加；马铃薯和小麦产量则与降水量关系较大，降水增多会使产量降低。     

未来气候变化对鲁南地区春大麦生产潜力的影响

文章采用春大豆生产潜力的宏观动态模拟模型，对山东省鲁南地区春大豆的生产潜力进行估算，并分析了在未来气候条件下，大豆生产力的变化情况，文章除了考虑温度、降水、ＣＯ２等因子之外，还考虑了紫外线对大豆生长，发育及产量的影响。综合研究状况表明，在未来气候条件下，山东省鲁南地区春大豆的生产潜力有下降趋势。     

水稻气候生产力的数值模拟及其应用

在水稻气候生产力数值模拟的基础上,利用杂交水稻种植区１８省１６５站３０年逐旬光温整编资料,模拟并分析了早、中、晚稻气候生产力的空间分布规律及其气象原因;利用模糊聚类分析,进一步对我国水稻种植区域作了气候生态类型区划,结果早季稻划分为七个类型区,中季稻和晚季稻可划分为六个类型区。     

Can crop albedo be increased through the modification of leaf trichomes,and could this cool regional climate?

Managing the land surface to increase albedo to offset regional warming has received less attention than managing the land surface to sequester carbon. We test whether increasing agricultural albedo can cool regional climate. We first used the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0) coupled to the Community Land Model (CLM 3.0) to assess the broad climatic effects of a hypothetical implementation of a strategy in which the albedo of cropland regions is increased using high albedo crops. Simulations indicate that planting brighter crops can decrease summertime maximum daily 2 m air temperature by 0.25°C per 0.01 increase in surface albedo at high latitudes (>30°). However, planting brighter crops at low latitudes (<30°) may have negative repercussions including warming the land surface and decreasing precipitation, because increasing the land surface albedo tends to preferentially decrease latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which decreases cloud cover and rainfall. We then test a possible method for increasing crop albedo by measuring the range of albedo within 16 isolines of soybeans that differ only with trichome color, orientation, and density but find that such modifications had only minor impacts on leaf albedo. Increasing agricultural albedo may cool high latitude regional climate, but increasing plant albedo sufficiently to offset potential future warming will require larger changes to plant albedo than are currently available.     

贝叶斯准则在农牧交错带农业种植决策中的应用

为揭示呼伦贝尔市农牧交错带农业种植结构的实质,利用贝叶斯准则及该区气象资料,主要作物大豆、玉米和小麦的种植面积及产量资料进行了分析。结果表明:①该区种植作物的经济效益大小排序为:大豆>玉米>小麦;②如果预报有干旱发生,则作物种植比例大小排序为:玉米>大豆>小麦;如果预报有洪涝或低温冷害发生,则作物种植比例大小排序为:大豆>玉米>小麦;③设计了两种在干旱气候年型下的作物种植比例最优方案,产值可分别增加3%和5%以上。     

膜下滴灌模式下种植密度对棉田蒸散发规律影响研究

为探求绿洲棉区膜下滴灌条件下不同种植密度棉田蒸散发规律，运用大型称重式蒸渗仪对膜下滴灌棉田蒸散过程连续监测，结果表明：在不同种植密度条件下，棉花的日蒸散量曲线都表现为单峰曲线，不同生育时期一膜六行（30株/m2）种植的棉田蒸散量比一膜四行（20株/m2）大，花铃期棉田的蒸散发强度最大，一膜四行、一膜六行分别为4.76mm/d、5.94mm/d。同时，一膜六行种植的叶面积指数大于一膜四行种植,株高小于一膜四行种植。花铃期棉田的蒸散发量与日平均气温（p<0.01）和空气相对湿度(p<0.01)具有很好的相关性，与日平均风速和日平均水汽压的关系不大。     

基于卫星遥感的临沂市冬小麦种植时空变化特征分析

以临沂地区为研究区,基于Terra/MOD13Q1遥感植被数据产品,通过分析冬小麦的遥感光谱特征、物候历特征及其生物学特性,提取2009—2019年临沂地区冬小麦种植信息,利用GIS空间分析方法和统计分析方法分析了临沂冬小麦种植的时空分布变化规律。结果显示：1）空间上,近10年来临沂地区冬小麦种植面积在2 800～3 000 km2之间浮动,占整个地区土地面积的17%左右,总体变化较小,种植区域呈南多北少的分布格局,主要集中在兰陵、临沭和郯城;2）从冬小麦种植稳定度上看,连续种植冬小麦10 a及以上的区域,主要集中在兰陵和郯城,面积为1 638 km2,稳定度高,连续种植小于4 a的区域有1 914 km2,主要分布在莒南和费县,种植不稳定;3）时间上,冬小麦面积由2009年的2 838 km2增加到2019年的2 985 km2,变化幅度和年均变化率分别为5.5%和0.5%,呈缓慢增加趋势。本研究为临沂地区冬小麦种植的深入了解以及农业结构调整提供了较为准确、科学的参考依据。     

东北春大豆精细化气候区划

以东北春大豆为研究对象,分早熟、中熟和晚熟3类熟型构建东北春大豆气候区划指标。利用基于模糊数学的区划指标隶属度函数和作物反应函数两种气候适宜度评价方法,结合精细化插值（Anusplin插值）后的东北地区1990—2019年气象数据,从时间、空间（1 km×1 km农田）和熟型开展东北春大豆精细化气候区划。结果表明:8月平均温度、5—9月累积降水量和7月累积日照时数是影响春大豆相对气象产量的主要气象要素。分熟型的气候区划结果在表达春大豆单产分布和产量稳定性方面优于不分熟型。根据气候适宜度和减产率的定量关系将适宜度评价结果分为最适宜、适宜、次适宜、不适宜4个等级,其中东北地区最适宜春大豆种植的区域主要集中在松嫩平原的北部和三江平原中南部。随着气候变暖,适宜春大豆种植区域向高纬度和高海拔地区扩大。     

Coping with food crises: Lessons from the American Dust Bowl on balancing local food,agro technology,social welfare,and government regulation agendas in food and farming systems

This paper examines four broad policy and public responses to the American Dust Bowl in the 1930s as a way of exploring how society today could address our own “food crisis”. More particularly, in the Dust Bowl some argued that solutions would be found by engineers and farmers who would develop new ways of watering dry fields. A second group believed that inappropriate political and economic incentives had led to bad farming practices prior to the drought and this contributed to wide-spread erosion. To this group, the best solutions included governmental regulation of farm practices. A third group focused on the welfare of individuals, arguing that creating a social safety net to protect marginalized families was the highest priority. Finally, there were commentators who advocated for a smaller scale, ecological, and holistic approach to farming. Today, the same four perspectives are present in debates about how to maintain global food security in light of population growth, high energy prices and climate change. Exploring the similarity of the discourses between today's food crisis and the one that hit American society 80 years ago reveals that advocates of the four different camps are motivated by very different principles. Briefly, proponents of technological solutions base many of their arguments on the assumption that human ingenuity is capable of producing extremely productive food systems. The managerial arguments, by contrast, are based on the idea that the natural environment can be rationally and efficiently managed using scientific principles. The social welfare narrative seeks to create a more equitable food system. Finally, the ecological and holistic narrative argues that diverse, small scale and local food systems are a prerequisite for long term sustainability. The primary contribution of this paper, therefore, is to expose these deeply held ontological tensions as a way of arguing that policy makers today must de-politicise arguments and use the principles embedded in all four narratives when designing programmes to ensure that the 21st century does not face a repeat of the crisis of the 1930s.     

Paper 2. agricultural impacts of and responses to climate change in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region

The climate of the 1930s was used as an analog of the climate that might occur in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (the MINK region) as a consequence of global warming. The analog climate was imposed on the agriculture of the region under technological and economic conditions prevailing in 1984/87 and again under a scenario of conditions that might prevail in 2030. The EPIC model of Williamset al. (1984), modified to allow consideration of the yield enhancing effects of CO₂ enrichment, was used to evaluate the impacts of the analog climate on the productivity and water use of some 50 representative farm enterprises. Before farm level adjustments and adaptations to the changed climate, and absent CO₂ enrichment (from 350 to 450 ppm), production of corn, sorghum and soybeans was depressed by the analog climate in about the same percent under both current and 2030 conditions. Production of dryland wheat was unaffected. Irrigated wheat production actually increased. Farm level adjustments using low-cost currently available technologies, combined with CO₂ enrichment, eliminated about 80% of the negative impact of the analog climate on 1984/87 baseline crop production. The same farm level adjustments, plus new technologies developed in response to the analog climate, when combined with CO₂ enrichment, converted the negative impact on 2030 crop production to a small increase. The analog climate would have little direct effect on animal production in MINK. The effect, if any, would be by way of the impact on production of feed-grains and soybeans. Since this impact would be small after on-farm adjustments and CO₂ enrichment, animal production in MINK would be little affected by the analog climate.     

中国公众对气候变化和气象灾害认知的社会性别差异

对2015年全国公众气象服务评价调查结果的分析显示,我国公众中男性对气候变化认识程度以及对气象灾害预警的认知水平和满意度都比女性高。城镇女性选择环保产品、环保出行及愿意对生活或工作方式做出改变来应对气候变化的比例高于城镇男性,而农村男性选择调整或改变种植或养殖方式、改变种植或养殖品种及转换谋生方式的比例高于女性。男性选择购买相关气象或气候保险、参加培训或辅导的比例比女性高,而女性选择学习气象灾害和气候变化相关的专业知识比例高于男性。女性对气象服务信息的需求比例比男性高。建议：1)积极推进气候变化及其灾害认知的社会性别研究,建立灾害认知性别数据库,将社会性别融入到气象灾害风险管理的整个过程;2)在气象服务中引入社会性别视角,加强针对女性的宣传和指导,开发适合女性的服务产品和信息传播渠道,提升她们应对灾害的意识和能力。