农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放及情景模拟

控制农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放对中国落实温室气体减缓政策具有现实意义,对于推动农业绿色转型、实现乡村振兴具有指导价值。本文基于IPCC系数法核算了2000—2019年中国省际农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放,刻画了农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放强度时空演化规律;基于STRIPAT模型,解析了各地区农业源非二氧化碳温室气体的影响机理,模拟了不同情景组合下农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放未来演变趋势。结果表明：(1)动物肠道发酵甲烷排放是中国农业源非二氧化碳温室气体最主要的来源,中国农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放逐渐由东部沿海向西部内陆地区转移。(2)“胡焕庸线”是单位农业增加值排放强度与单位农地面积排放强度高值区的分水岭,农牧交错带是中国单位农业增加值排放强度的高值区。(3)中国农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放与人均GDP之间存在倒“N”型的EKC曲线关系,华北、东北和华中地区仍面临一定的减排压力,各区域农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放影响机理存在显著差异。有效减少动物肠道发酵CH4排放,根据区域发展特征制定因地制宜的减排政策是未来中国农业源非二氧化碳温室气体减排的关键。     

A quantitative comparison and analysis on the assessment indicators of greenhouse gases emission

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emission and related global warming issues have been the focus of international communities for some time. The international communities have reached a consensus to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and restrain global warming. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the scientific basis to find out the status of global GHG emission, identify the commitments of each country, and arrange the international efforts of GHG emission reduction. Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emission include national indicator, per capita indicator, per GDP indicator, and international trade indicator etc. The introduction to the above indicators is put forward and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Based on the GHG emission data from the World Resource Institute (WRI), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), the results of each indictor are calculated for the world, for the eight G8 industrialized countries (USA, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Russia), and the five major developing countries including China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico. The paper points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The Indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita (IAEC) is put forward as the equitable indicator to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator can reflect the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emission per capita in industrialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those of the world average and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per GDP, consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.     

博台线作为中国区域发展均衡线的佐证分析——以城市温室气体排放为例

国际政治经济形势正在发生深刻变化,实现区域协调均衡发展对于形成以国内大循环为主的新发展格局至关重要。方创琳于2020年2月提出垂直于胡焕庸线的博台线可以表征中国区域发展的均衡格局。本文通过对中国338个地级市的温室气体排放水平进行分析,旨在论证博台线作为中国区域发展均衡线的合理性和可能性。结果显示：① 2015年二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）、氧化亚氮（N₂O）和含氟温室气体总量以博台线为界呈南北对称的空间分布格局,且博台线两侧各类温室气体的排放强度和人均排放量分布基本均衡,各产业部门CO₂排放强度和人均排放量的区域差异均较小;② 博台线西南半壁和东北半壁内各类温室气体排放在GDP和人口维度上总体呈均衡分布态势,且各部门CO₂排放强度和人均排放量的空间分布也较为均衡。总体而言,博台线两侧表征人类活动强度的温室气体排放水平较为均衡,一定程度上反映出其作为中国区域发展战略均衡线的科学性与合理性。     

温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases （GHG） emission and related global warming issues have been the focus of international communities for some time. The international communities have reached a consensus to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and restrain global warming. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the scientific basis to find out the status of global GHG emission, identify the commitments of each country, and arrange the international efforts of GHG emission reduction. Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emission include national indicator, per capita indicator, per GDP indicator, and international trade indicator etc. The introduction to the above indi- cators is put forward and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Based on the GHG emission data from the World Resource Institute （WRI）, the US Energy Information Administration （EIA）, and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center （CDIAC）, the results of each indictor are calculated for the world, for the eight G8 industrialized countries （USA, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Russia）, and the five major developing countries including China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico. The paper points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The Indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita （IAEC） is put forward as the equitable indicator to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator can reflect the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emission per capita in indus- trialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those of the world average and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per GDP, consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.     

Energy solution or future pollution? Applying an energy justice perspective to coal seam gas in New South Wales

ABSTRACT

The emergence of an unconventional extractive industry of coal seam gas (CSG) in New South Wales, Australia has caused a range of social tensions. Although the industry has generally received strong support from state-level governments across Australia, an eclectic social movement has arisen in opposition. Critical questions of justice have emerged in these debates about CSG, particularly about the ‘winners' and ‘losers' that would emerge should large-scale CSG extraction be introduced into New South Wales. However, the question of justice in relation to CSG extraction is not altogether so simple. Actors on all sides of CSG development have mobilised the language of justice in their claims about this energy source in sophisticated ways and at different scales. In this paper, we draw upon ‘energy justice’ scholarship to tease out different energy justice dimensions of the CSG debate in New South Wales. We show how there are significant issues that will likely intensify regarding the recognition of different forms of knowledge, the access citizens have to forms of decision-making, and the risks that span geographic and temporal scales. We argue that it is vital to appreciate the significant and interrelated injustices faced by those challenging the industry.     

An ‘Effective’ Involvement of Indigenous People in Environmental Impact Assessment: the cultural impact assessment of the Saru River Region,Japan

The Cultural Impact Assessment of the Saru River Region represents the first time that a site investigation was implemented in Japan in order to preserve an ethnic culture in relation to the construction of a dam. One of the project's basic concepts was to get local residents, especially those of Ainu ethnicity, to participate in the investigation. Existing case studies of environmental impact assessment have argued that the assessment has failed to sufficiently involve Indigenous people in its process and has largely failed to incorporate Indigenous knowledge, cultural values, and voices into its processes and outcomes. Also, intangible aspects of Indigenous cultural heritage have not been protected. In the Cultural Impact Assessment of the Saru River Region, the Final Report was released in 2006 and significantly included the 3 year investigation of input by local residents. In this sense, this assessment succeeded in effectively involving Indigenous people in its process and in reflecting their cultural values in its results. The more important issue is, however, how these results were included in the final outcomes. If Indigenous people have no power over final decision making, their involvement is not effective. This paper analyses the significance and unresolved problems involved in this overall assessment process.     

Does I = PAT Work in Local Places?

An aspect of global change currently not well understood is how processes operating on spatial scales finer than those used in recent global circulation models (GCMs) contribute to changes in atmospheric composition and the subsequent changes in climate. We use the ‘IPAT’ formulation as a framework to test relationships among social driving forces and user group greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northwestern North Carolina. Using regression, correlation, and bivariate mapping to examine relationships between a suite of socioeconomic variables and GHG emissions for the residential, commercial/industrial, and agricultural end‐user categories, we find that various measures of population and affluence serve equally well as explanatory variables.     

福建省温室气体排放影响因素分析

针对当前温室气体排放影响因素研究中忽视工农业生产排放源的现状,在对福建省2001―2010年各类温室气体排放量进行核算,并统一转换成CO2当量的基础上,通过引入能表达工农业生产过程自身温室气体排放的新指标,建立改进后的对数Divisia均值分解模型（LMDI）对福建省温室气体排放的影响因素进行分解分析。研究发现：2001―2010年福建省温室气体排放量不断上升,但环比增长率整体波动下降;产业结构、经济规模、人口规模、能源结构、人均收入、城市化水平、城市居民工业强度等因素的累积效应对温室气体排放增加有正向促进作用,其中城市居民工业强度的贡献率达到了13.66%;能源强度、农业生产强度的累积效应对温室气体排放有负向抑制作用,其中农业生产强度累积效应占负向效应总和的50%以上。研究结果显示：工农业生产过程对福建省温室气体排放有显著的驱动作用,不应忽视。     

温室气体清单编制方法研究进展

温室气体清单反映了温室气体排放和吸收的状况,是制定与衡量应对气候变化政策和措施的基础。虽然联合国规定了国家清单采用生产者责任方法编制,但很多研究认为该方法存在“碳泄漏”,容易造成发达国家转移减排责任等问题,并提出了其他清单编制方法。本文对已有的温室气体清单编制方法研究进行了总结,将其归纳为3大类:生产者责任方法、消费者责任方法和生产—消费者共同责任方法,并进一步总结了3大类方法下的多种估算方法;通过图表、数据等方式分析了各类方法的原理、优点及局限性。通过已有的研究分析推断,未来一段时间内生产者责任方法仍将是推荐的国家温室气体清单编制方法。最后展望了我国国家和省级温室气体清单编制研究方向。     

基于最终需求的中国出口贸易碳排放研究

以2002年为例,采用投入产出模型,从最终需求的角度对中国出口贸易引起的碳排放(包括直接和间接排放)进行了评估。结果表明,2002年中国为满足对外出口需求而在国内和国外引起的碳排放约288.22~330.49 MtC,其中国内出口排放261.19 MtC,约占当年国内一次能源消费碳排放量的23.45%;大部分部门的出口碳排放主要是由国内排放所贡献,进口再出口排放对总出口排放的平均贡献率在9.38%~20.97%之间。中国单位产值出口的平均碳排放为0.093~0.106 kgC,其中0.084 kgC是在国内排放;碳密集部门多集中于重化工业、交通运输和部分轻工业。将来一方面,中国不宜增加高耗能行业的出口;另一方面,国外发达国家也应积极向中国等发展中国家转让先进生产技术,以减少全球温室气体排放,实现全球减排行动中公平与效率的双赢。     

Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sources in order to plan for needs of low carbon economy at local level in Poland

Agriculture is often not included in the baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories created for local low carbon economy plans in Poland and other European countries. We therefore estimate the size of the carbon footprint from agricultural sources and indicate the share of agriculture in the total GHG emissions in selected Polish communes (LAU level 2). We propose a solution whereby local government units can estimate their carbon footprint independently and monitor the impact of actions taken to reduce emissions. The value of the carbon footprint from agriculture in the selected communes varies from .5 to 46.5 thousand Mg CO₂eq/year, with a mean value of 12.6 thousand Mg CO₂eq/year and a standard deviation of 11.4 thousand Mg CO₂eq/year. Per capita, these values range from 10 kg CO₂eq/year to 8.4 Mg CO₂eq/year, with a mean of 1.1 Mg CO₂eq/year and a standard deviation of 1.5 Mg CO₂eq/year. In all communes, the contribution of agriculture to total emissions is at an average of 14% (values range from .2 to 57.4%). The obtained results confirm the appropriateness of including emissions from the agricultural sector and other related sources in low carbon economy plans.     

温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析

温室气体排放的科学定量评价是建立国际温室气体减排框架、确定各国合理的减排责任、部署国际减排行动的基础。通过系统阐述目前国际上通行的温室气体排放的主要评价指标(国别排放指标、人均排放指标、GDP 排放指标和国际贸易排放指标等), 并通过定量评价剖析这些评价指标的优缺点及其局限性。讨论了发展科学、公平和易于广泛接受的新评价指 标的可能性。基于可持续发展的公平性原则, 提出了“工业化累积人均排放量” 的新指标, 以客观定量评价世界各国工业化以来温室气体历史累积排放量的当代人均量。新指标的结果显示, 英美等老牌工业化国家的工业化累积人均排放量远高于全球平均水平和发展中国家的 水平。还提出并讨论了人均单位GDP 排放量、消费排放量、生存排放量等潜在的评价指标。     

Worldwide Estimates of Deep Natural Gas Resources Based on the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000

The U.S. Geological Survey recently assessed undiscovered conventional gas and oil resources in eight regions of the world outside the U.S. The resources assessed were those estimated to have the potential to be added to reserves within the next thirty years. This study is a worldwide analysis of the estimated volumes and distribution of deep (>4.5 km or about 15,000 ft), undiscovered conventional natural gas resources based on this assessment. Two hundred forty-six assessment units in 128 priority geologic provinces, 96 countries, and two jointly held areas were assessed using a probabilistic Total Petroleum System approach. Priority geologic provinces were selected from a ranking of 937 provinces worldwide. The U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Team did not assess undiscovered petroleum resources in the U.S. For this report, mean estimated volumes of deep conventional undiscovered gas resources in the U.S. are taken from estimates of 101 deep plays (out of a total of 550 conventional plays in the U.S.) from the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources. A probabilistic method was designed to subdivide gas resources into depth slices using a median-based triangular probability distribution as a model for drilling depth to estimate the percentages of estimated gas resources below various depths. For both the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 and the 1995 National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources, minimum, median, and maximum depths were assigned to each assessment unit and play; these depths were used in our analysis. Two-hundred seventy-four deep assessment units and plays in 124 petroleum provinces were identified for the U.S. and the world. These assessment units and plays contain a mean undiscovered conventional gas resource of 844 trillion cubic ft (Tcf) occuring at depths below 4.5 km. The deep undiscovered conventional gas resource (844 Tcf) is about 17% of the total world gas resource (4,928 Tcf) based on the provinces assessed and includes a mean estimate of 259 Tcf of U.S. gas from the U.S. 1995 National Assessment. Of the eight regions, the Former Soviet Union (Region 1) contains the largest estimated volume of undiscovered deep gas with a mean resource of343 Tcf.     

木薯燃料乙醇的碳效应分析

出于能源安全的考虑及对温室气体减排的关注,世界各国近些年大力发展生物液体燃料,我国政府提倡以木薯等非粮作物为原料生产燃料乙醇。但一直以来科学家们对生物液体燃料的碳效应争论激烈,争论的焦点在于原料种植对土壤碳库的影响及不同技术条件下副产品利用的评估。本文通过建立碳平衡分析模型,将原料种植对土壤碳库影响及副产品利用的替代效应纳入研究体系,评估了我国木薯燃料乙醇生命周期内的碳排放,研究结果显示：我国每生产单位质量（1kg）木薯燃料乙醇,在新旧两种技术条件下的碳排放分别为0.457kg和0.647kg。碳排放主要来自于氮肥的使用、木薯种植对土壤碳库的破坏及木薯燃料乙醇加工转化过程能源投入,在新技术条件下分别占总排放量的9%、29%和50%。以汽油的碳排放为参照,在旧技术条件下我国木薯燃料乙醇碳排放呈现负效益,在新技术条件下其碳排放为汽油的90%,倘若能避免对土壤碳库的破坏,则这一比例将下降到64%。因此,为了促进我国木薯燃料乙醇的发展,首先应该引导农民合理施肥,利用边际土地种植木薯,不转换林地、草地等土地类型的利用方式;此外,要开发高效节能的燃料乙醇转化技术及加强对副产品的二次利用。     

多年冻土地区工程建设生态环境影响研究评述

多年冻土地区工程建设的研究在国际上开展很早,而关于工程建设项目对区域生态环境影响的研究则相对滞后。在对生态环境要素所受影响角度的考察中,相关研究集中于工程建设项目对冻土层以及多年冻土地区植被、湿地、土地荒漠化、野生动物、自然保护区的影响上;在对生态环境影响预测和评价方法角度的考察中,相关研究集中于冻土层和多年冻土地区水土流失的影响预测和评价上。从既有的研究成果来看,多年冻土地区工程建设生态环境影响研究应向体系化、定量化和全面化发展,具体的工作包括生态环境影响评价指标体系的建立和综合性生态环境影响评价方法的制定等。     

Media Constructions of Aboriginality: implications for engagement with coal seam gas development in Australia

Recent neo-liberal policy frameworks in Australia advocate economic development opportunities for Aboriginal Australians as a viable strategy to redress the marginalisation and social disadvantage that appear to characterise many Aboriginal communities. In New South Wales (NSW), Aboriginal peoples are currently negotiating with industry for the chance to participate in coal seam gas (CSG) development opportunities. Based upon research focusing on CSG development in the Northern NSW region, this paper argues that certain constructions of Aboriginality inhibit successful Aboriginal engagement with the economic opportunities provided by CSG. This paper illuminates the role of the media in facilitating dominant discourse about Aboriginality and the implications of those constructions for Aboriginal engagement with the mainstream economy. Findings demonstrate that the media are complicit in constructing Aboriginal peoples in a way that could prejudice their attempts to engage in economic opportunities that do not align with the dominant constructions of Aboriginality.     

城市空间形态应对气候变化研究进展及展望

气候变化与城市化的叠加使城市成为温室气体减排和气候变化许多关键风险集中的区域,如何应对气候变化已成为城市面临的重大挑战。以空间形态作为切入点,开展城市应对气候变化研究日益成为城市环境与气候变化领域的发展前沿和热点问题。本文通过文献分析和归纳,综述了城市空间形态应对气候变化研究的主要影响及评估方法、城市空间形态与温室气体排放和气候变化主要风险之间的关系、空间形态应对策略以及规划应用研究。在此基础上,展望了未来的研究重点和方向。     

Assessment Methodology and Results From the Canadian Gas Potential Committee 2001 Report

Since 1991 volunteers from the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) have conducted assessments of undiscovered gas potential in Canada. Reports were published in 1997 and 2001. The 2001 CGPC report assessed all established and some conceptual exploration plays in Canada and incorporated data from about 29,000 discovered gas pools and gas fields. Mainly year-end 1998 data were used in the analysis of 107 established exploration plays. The CGPC assessed gas in place without using economic cut offs. Estimates of nominal marketable gas were made, based on the ratio between gas in place and marketable gas in discovered pools. Only part of the estimated nominal marketable gas actually will be available, primarily because of restrictions on access to exploration and the small size of many accumulations. Most plays were assessed using the Petrimes program where it could be applied. Arps-Roberts assessments were made on plays where too many discovered pools were present to use the Petrimes program. Arps-Roberts assessments were corrected for economic truncation of the discovered pool sample. Several methods for making such corrections were tried and examples of the results are shown and compared with results from Petrimes. In addition to assessments of established plays, 12 conceptual plays, where no discoveries have been made, were assessed using Petrimes subjective methodology. An additional 65 conceptual plays were recognized, discussed, and ranked without making a quantitative assessment. No nominal marketable gas was attributed to conceptual plays because of the high risk of failure in such plays. Nonconventional gas in the form of coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas, and shale gas are discussed, but no nominal marketable gas is attributed to those sources pending successful completion of pilot study projects designed to demonstrate commercially viable production. Conventional gas resources in Canada include 340 Tcf of gas in place in discovered pools and fields and 252 Tcf of undiscovered gas in place. Remaining nominal marketable gas includes 96 Tcf in discovered pools and fields and 138 Tcf of undiscovered nominal marketable gas. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin holds 61% of the remaining nominal marketable gas. Future discoveries from that area will be mainly in pools smaller than 2.5 Bcf of marketable gas and increasing levels of exploratory drilling will be required to harvest this undiscovered resource. A pragmatic, geologically focussed approach to the assessment of undiscovered gas potential by the CGPC provides a sound basis for future exploration and development planning. Peer reviewed assessment on a play-by-play basis for entire basins provides both detailed play information and the ability to evaluate new exploration results and their impact on overall potential.     

Synergy between Virtual Local Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases Emissions Embodied in China’s International Trade

Increasing pressure from the international community to reduce carbon emissions, coupled with the need to reduce domestic air pollutants, is forcing China to deal with both sources of emissions. Air pollutants and greenhouse gases are closely linked via their common source, fossil fuels. As a result of globalization, large portions of these emissions are associated with trade. This study uses data from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), including 27 EU countries and 13 major countries, covering the period from 2000 to 2009, and applies MRIO (Multiregional input-output) to estimate emissions embodied in China’s international trade. We focus on the synergy between LAPs (local air pollutants) and GHG consumption-based emissions, and the relationship between virtual LAPs and virtual GHGs associated with China’s international trade from 2000 to 2009. The results indicate that a strong synergistic relationship exists and that air pollutant control can serve as an endogenous mechanism to mitigating greenhouse gases. Thanks to domestic actions to control air pollutants, every ton reduction of LAP emissions related to export can save 27.1 tons of GHG emissions in 2005 over emissions efficiency levels, and can save 32.4 tons of GHG emissions in 2009 over 2005. Mitigation actions taken to reduce air pollutants could also reduce GHG emissions.     

土地利用规划环境影响评价

土地利用规划的环境影响评价对提高政府决策的科学化具有重要意义。国外相关方面的研究已有30年之久,但我国刚刚起步。对于评价内涵及内容的探讨是开展这一领域研究的基础。本文从现阶段土地利用规划的需求出发,在综合分析项目环境影响评价的经验及相关的研究成果基础上提出土地利用规划环境影响评价的主要内容和研究的建议。