农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放及情景模拟

控制农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放对中国落实温室气体减缓政策具有现实意义，对于推动农业绿色转型、实现乡村振兴具有指导价值。本文基于IPCC系数法核算了2000—2019年中国省际农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放，刻画了农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放强度时空演化规律；基于STRIPAT模型，解析了各地区农业源非二氧化碳温室气体的影响机理，模拟了不同情景组合下农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放未来演变趋势。结果表明：(1)动物肠道发酵甲烷排放是中国农业源非二氧化碳温室气体最主要的来源，中国农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放逐渐由东部沿海向西部内陆地区转移。(2)“胡焕庸线”是单位农业增加值排放强度与单位农地面积排放强度高值区的分水岭，农牧交错带是中国单位农业增加值排放强度的高值区。(3)中国农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放与人均GDP之间存在倒“N”型的EKC曲线关系，华北、东北和华中地区仍面临一定的减排压力，各区域农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放影响机理存在显著差异。有效减少动物肠道发酵CH4排放，根据区域发展特征制定因地制宜的减排政策是未来中国农业源非二氧化碳温室气体减排的关键。

Agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gases emissions and scenario simulation analysis

It is practical to control agricultural non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions for the implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation policies in China, and has a guiding value for promoting the green transformation of agriculture and realizing rural revitalization. Based on the IPCC coefficient method, this paper accounts for the provincial agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions in China from 2000 to 2019, and portrays the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emission intensity. Based on the STRIPAT model, the influence mechanism of agricultural non-CO₂ GHG in each region is analyzed, and the future evolution of agricultural non-CO₂ GHG under different scenarios simulated. The results show that: (1) Methane emissions from animal enteric fermentation are one of major sources of agricultural non-CO₂ greenhouse gases in China, and agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions in China gradually shift from the eastern coast to the western inland regions. (2) The Hu Huanyong Line is the divide between the emission intensity per unit of agricultural value added and the high value zone per unit of agricultural land area, and the agro-pastoral intersection zone is the high value zone of emission intensity per unit of agricultural value added in China. (3) The relationship between agricultural non-CO₂ GHG and per capita GDP in China has an inverted "N" type Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and North, Northeast and Central China are still under pressure to reduce emissions. Effectively reducing methane emissions from animal enteric fermentation and formulating localized emission reduction policies based on regional development characteristics are the keys to reducing agricultural non-CO₂ GHG in China in the future.