福建省温室气体排放影响因素分析

针对当前温室气体排放影响因素研究中忽视工农业生产排放源的现状，在对福建省2001―2010年各类温室气体排放量进行核算，并统一转换成CO2当量的基础上，通过引入能表达工农业生产过程自身温室气体排放的新指标，建立改进后的对数Divisia均值分解模型（LMDI）对福建省温室气体排放的影响因素进行分解分析。研究发现：2001―2010年福建省温室气体排放量不断上升，但环比增长率整体波动下降；产业结构、经济规模、人口规模、能源结构、人均收入、城市化水平、城市居民工业强度等因素的累积效应对温室气体排放增加有正向促进作用，其中城市居民工业强度的贡献率达到了13.66%；能源强度、农业生产强度的累积效应对温室气体排放有负向抑制作用，其中农业生产强度累积效应占负向效应总和的50%以上。研究结果显示：工农业生产过程对福建省温室气体排放有显著的驱动作用，不应忽视。

Influencing Factors Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Fujian Province

At present the emissions from agricultural and industrial activities are relatively neglected in the influencing factors analysis of greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, the method of 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is used to calculate the emissions of greenhouse gas of Fujian Province from 2001 to 2010. On the basis of the carbon dioxide equivalent which is converted from greenhouse gases, we have analyzed the influencing factors of greenhouse gas emissions by the model of LMDI, and introduced some new indexes to explain the influence of the emissions from industrial and agricultural activities. The results show that although the total emission of greenhouse gas was increasing during the period of the study, its growth rate was decreasing; The accumulative effects of industrial structure, economic scale, population size, energy structure, per capita income, urbanization level and industrial strength of urban residents played positive roles on greenhouse gas emissions, in which the contribution rate of industrial strength of urban residents reached 13.66%. The accumulative effects of energy intensity and agricultural production intensity played negative roles on greenhouse gas emissions, in which the contribution rate of agricultural production intensity was more than 50%. The research results indicate that the influence of industrial and agricultural activities is so significant that they can not be neglected. The paper would provide some references for Fujian province to formulate the policies and measures scientifically on energy-saving and emission reduction.