昆明市土地利用变化的强度分析与稳定性研究

在遥感、地理信息系统和统计定量分析结合的基础上,引进土地利用变化强度分析理论方法。作为一种解释性的数学框架,通过不同时间间隔的土地利用转移矩阵计算了每个时间间隔和每种地类的变化面积和变化强度。强度分析自上而下分为3个层次：间隔层次、地类层次和转变层次,将观察变化强度与平均变化强度比较,揭示不同层次的变化特征,并依次用快速的与缓慢的、活跃的与平稳的、来源与转变三对术语来描述。本文以昆明市的土地利用变化为例,深入阐述了不同层次的面积变化和强度变化,并对不同层次的稳定性进行了深入分析。结果表明：在间隔层次,2000年后昆明市的土地利用变化强度逐渐加大;在地类层次,建设用地的变化强度是最活跃的,林地的变化强度是最平稳的;在转变层次,增加的建设用地主要来源于耕地,减少的林地主要转变为草地。强度分析在土地利用变化过程分析中具有系统性的优势,对深入挖掘土地利用变化信息、理解土地利用变化过程具有重要作用。     

Measuring the temporal instability of land change using the Flow matrix

This article introduces the Flow matrix, which expresses the sizes of transitions among categories between two time points. We use the Flow matrix to create a metric R that measures the instability of annual change among time intervals that partition the time extent. Specifically, R is the proportion of change that would need to be reallocated to different time interval(s) to achieve uniform change during the time extent. This article computes R for 10 Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites and for seven case studies from published land change data. Of the 10 LTER sites analyzed, the Andrews site in Oregon had the highest R value (37.1% of change), while the Luquillo site in Puerto Rico had the lowest (1.7% of change). We analyze the mathematical behavior of R, especially with respect to how the partitioning of the time extent into intervals can influence R.     

上海地区不同重现期的风速估算研究

基于上海气象站历史风速观测资料,采用极值I型和皮尔逊III型分布估算了上海市不同重现期最大风速的时间变化以及各区（县）不同重现期最大和极大风速的空间分布。结果表明,1901~2011年,上海市10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速分别为21.0、24.9、26.7和29.2 m/s。1974~2011年期间,上海各区（县）10 m高度10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速都是以南部沿海地区南汇或金山最大,分别为19.0、21.4、22.6和24.1 m/s;各重现期极大风速也是以南汇或金山最大,分别为32.3、36.4、38.4和41.0 m/s。中心城区各重现期的最大和极大风速都最小。     

A new method of computing geopotential fields

Summary. A new method is proposed for the geopotential field computation and gravitational attraction modelling. The usual method is to use a uniform density discrete numerical integration to represent either the gravitational potential or the gravitational attraction from a given density configuration. In this paper, an interpolation scheme is explained, using a piecewise continuous basis function to represent the arbitrarily varying density configuration in one, two and three dimensions. This new approach greatly simplifies the potential integrations and, in certain cases where symmetry exists, analytical evaluation of the integrals is also possible. Numerical tests and examples are given for a hypothetical salt dome, a vertical dyke with varying density structure and the hydrostatic ellipticity of earth model 1066B. The numerical error in this method is limited to the analytical approximation and interpolation errors in each case. This new approach can also be used as efficiently for other potential field studies.     

Land use change monitoring in Maryland using a probabilistic sample and rapid photointerpretation

The U.S. state of Maryland needs to monitor land use change in order to address land management objectives. This paper presents a change detection method that, through automation and standard geographic information system (GIS) techniques, facilitates the estimation of landscape change via photointerpretation. Using the protocols developed, we show a net loss of forest land, with losses due primarily to urban development and most gains in forest land coming from agricultural land conversions. This study indicates that about 75,000 photo plots would be needed to estimate land use change in Maryland at the county-level, assuming a uniform sampling intensity and a maximum desired county-level sampling error of 20 percent, with an estimated time requirement of 125 h. The protocol we present for designing, planning and conducting a photointerpretation-based land use change procedure can be used by other regions and is well suited for land use change monitoring, assuming that analysis of opportunity costs suggests that existing or new remotely sensed imagery classifications do not meet user needs.     

潮汐作用下的滨海浅层地下水水质变化

利用雷州半岛东部滨海浅层地下水的逐时采样数据,分析潮汐作用下该区浅层地下水水质变化特征,结果表明：1）研究区地下水中主要离子均以Na⁺和Cl^-为主,K⁺和 CO₃ ^2-的质量浓度则低至可以忽略。其中,东海岛地下水水质较为稳定,各离子不具有明显的相关性,而南渡河和新寮地下水中各离子的变化具有准同步特征。2）南渡河地下水对于土壤的平均碱化危害程度最低,其次是东海岛,新寮地下水对于土壤的平均碱化危害程度最高,且大潮期尤甚。东海岛地下水对土壤的碱化危害程度随潮汐变化不大;南渡河和新寮则表现出大潮期地下水的土壤碱化危害程度大于小潮期的特点,意味着潮动力的增强导致海水入侵强度变大,进而加剧了地下水对土壤的碱化危害。3）就地下水受海水入侵强度而言,东海岛的平均受侵强度最大,但随潮动力变化不大,危害具有常态化特征;新寮地下水大潮期受海水入侵的最大强度高于东海岛,但平均危害则小于后者;南渡河受海水入侵程度最低,部分时段不存在海水入侵情况。4）各监测井地下水中Na⁺和Cl^-具有同源性,是溶解性固体总量（TDS）的主要成分,也是引起TDS 变化的主要原因。就TDS 变化的剧烈程度而言,南渡河的水质波动最为显著,其次是新寮,东海岛水质维持在稳定的水平。5）南渡河和新寮可以通过监测地下水电导率的长期变化间接实现对水体矿化度及Na⁺和Cl^-的长期监测;东海岛则不适合做精确的点监测,但可以考虑进行区间监测。     

Effects of land use,slope gradient,and soil and water conservation structures on runoff and soil loss in semi-arid Northern Ethiopia

April lightning production in Richmond County, Georgia, from 1995 to 2003 is considered with regard to the associated risk to golfers and spectators at the Master's Golf Tournament and courses throughout the county. An examination of the April lightning climatology of Georgia, focusing on Richmond County, reveals a minimum in lightning activity during the time of the tournament (the first full week of April). A discriminant analysis of Richmond County lightning production utilizes several meteorological variables in order to discern between three categories of April lightning days: little or no lightning activity, minimal lightning activity, and high lightning activity. The analysis distinguishes relatively well between the categories with only 13.5% of the events misclassified. A composite regional analysis of the three lightning categories illustrates the environmental differences between these events. Although the little or no lightning and high lightning categories are somewhat similar environmentally, the intensity of features separates these events and allows for interpretation. The statistical and synoptic analyses together emphasize the importance of low-level instability and frontal proximity and intensity in enhancing lightning production in thunderstorms during April in and surrounding Richmond County. A multitude of meteorological conditions can lead to thunderstorm development. Localized studies of these environments, especially during times of major outdoor sporting events, are needed to help mitigate the risk associated with lightning.     

河西走廊东部低温事件变化特征

根据1960-2015年河西走廊东部5个气象站逐日最低、平均气温资料,通过固定阈值和百分位阈值法定义了低温事件,采用气候统计学方法,分析了该区域低温事件的强度、极值和日数的变化特征,统计结果显示,受海拔高度、地形地势和植被覆盖的影响,河西走廊东部低温事件的空间分布均存在明显地域差异,均为高寒山区天祝强度和极值最强,日数最多,绿洲平原区凉州强度和极值最弱,日数最少。河西走廊东部年代和年低温事件强度和极值呈减弱趋势,日数呈减少趋势,2010-2015年减弱和减少的趋势尤为明显。年低温事件强度、极值和日数的时间序列均存在着周期性变化,但都没有发生气候突变,只出现了转折年份。两种标准的低温事件均出现在1~3月和11~12月,强度、极值和日数高峰值均在1月或12月。年低温事件存在一定的异常性,正常低温事件强度、极值和日数的年份概率在64.3%～80.4%,对安全生产造成危害的低温事件强度、极值偏强和特强年份的概率在7.1%～16.1%,日数偏多和特多年份的概率共为16.1%。本研究可为低温的预报预警提供技术支持,同时可为地方政府提供准确的决策依据,对区域气候变化研究和经济发展有重要意义。     

TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PENNSYLVANIA SNOWFALL, 1950–1951 THROUGH 1989–1990

While speculation exists on global and regional climate change for temperature and precipitation, relatively little research is available on snowfall and its changes. Twenty-six sites were selected to describe and analyze various characteristics of snowfall in Pennsylvania from 1950–1951 through 1989–1990. Overall, the state experienced a significant stepwise change in seasonal snowfall total during this period. Abnormally high seasonal totals prevailed from 1957–1958 through 1971–1972. This rise in snowfall was accompanied by colder-than-normal temperatures and a dramatic increase in large daily snow events. Principal components analysis (PCA) revealed that the seasonal temporal patterns were not uniform across the state. The PCA revealed four distinct seasonal regions. These regions exhibited everything from nearly linear increases and decreases over time to cyclical formations. PCA performed on the months of November through April each unveiled between three and five separate temporal regions. PCA analyses generally identified an eastern region, a north-central region, and a western region across Pennsylvania. [Key words: regionalization, principal components, variability, snowfall, climate change, Pennsylvania.]     

Half-graben basin filling models: new constraints on continental extensional basin development

Three end-member models of half-graben development (detachment fault, domino-style, and fault growth) evolve differently through time and produce different basin-filling patterns. The detachment fault model incorporates a basin-bounding fault that soles into a subhorizontal detachment fault; the change in the rate of increase in the volume of the basin during uniform fault displacement is zero. Younger strata consistently pinch out against older synrift strata rather than pre-rift rocks. Both basin-bounding faults and the intervening fault blocks rotate during extension in the domino fault block model; a consequence of this rotation is that the change in the rate of increase of the volume of the basin is negative during uniform extension. Basin fill commonly forms a fanning wedge during fluvial sedimentation, whereas lacustrine strata tend to pinch out against older synrift strata. In the fault growth models, basins grow both wider and longer through time as the basin-bounding faults lengthen and displacement accumulates; the change in the rate of increase in basin volume is positive. Fluvial strata progressively onlap pre-rift rocks of the hanging wall block, whereas lacustrine strata pinch out against older fluvial strata at the centre of the basin but onlap pre-rift rocks along the lateral edges. These fundamental differences may be useful in discriminating among the three end-member models. The transition from fluvial to lacustrine deposition and hanging wall onlap relationships observed in numerous continental extensional basins are best explained by the fault growth models.     

基于模糊集的土地利用变化自动发现方法探讨

传统的逐像素比较法忽略了地理对象的模糊性,缺乏区分噪声与真实变化信息的能力,难于处理空间数据的复杂性和不确定性。基于模糊集理论,根据邻域像元的空间位置关系确定变化的程度,并利用滑窗和景观指数表达比较不同时相遥感数据(TM、ETMI、KONOS)的分类专题图。试验结果表明,模糊集的描述更接近真实情况。     

新疆城乡建设用地动态变化的时空特征分析

利用20世纪80年代末和90年代末两个时期的LandsatTM卫星影象,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,分析了新疆城乡建设用地变化的时空特征。结果表明:①在这10年的时间里,新疆城乡建设用地扩展明显,其中城镇用地增长迅速。城乡建设用地类型及其结构变化在东疆、南疆和北疆三大区域和县(市)级区域存在明显的差异。②新疆城乡建设用地扩张以占用耕地和草地为主。③新疆城乡建设用地变化驱动因素主要是人口增长、国民经济的增长、第三产业的发展。     

高级科学人才集聚成长的时空格局演化及其驱动机制——基于中国科学院院士的典型分析

以中国科学院1192 名院士为典型群体, 运用基尼系数、集中化指数和空间自相关识别和剖析了高级科学人才成长的时空规律及其演化机制。结果表明:① 中科院院士国内籍贯或出生地、国内最高学历(位)获取地和国内长期工作地, 在东中西3 大地带均呈现出较强的不平衡性;② 自20 世纪50 年代以来, 中科院院士在上述3 地的大部分省域表现出地理空间上显著的正的空间自相关性, 其国内籍贯或出生地、国内最高学历(位)获取地和国内长期工作地均呈现出集聚逐渐弱化的空间演化态势;③ 中科院院士在上述3 地带的HH集聚省域数量随年代推进分别呈现出先增后减、变化不大和逐渐增加态势, 主要分布于中国东部沿海省域及其邻近省域;④ 从20 世纪50 年代至今, 中科院院士在上述3 地带时空格局演化跃迁较多的是类型Ⅳ(省域本身及其邻居均保持了相同水平), 近半省域表现出了空间上的连续稳定性, 而类型Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅲ在数量上也有所差异, 且存在部分省域跃迁明显的现象;⑤自然环境、经济基础、政治环境和文化教育的差异和变化不同程度的影响着中科院院士的总体空间分布和时空格局演化。     

城市土地利用变化中邻域相互作用的特征——日本三大都市圈的比较研究

Local spatial interaction between neighborhood land-use categories (i.e. neighborhood interaction) is an important factor which affects urban land-use change patterns. Therefore,it is a key component in cellular automata (CA)-based urban geosimulation models towards the simulation and forecast of urban land-use changes. Purpose of this paper is to interpret the similarities and differences of the characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of different metropolitan areas in Japan for providing empirical materials to understand the mechanism of urban land-use changes and construct urban geosimulation models. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of three metropolitan areas in Japan,i.e. Tokyo,Osaka,and Nagoya,were compared using such aids as the neighborhood interaction model and similarity measure function. As a result,urban land-use in the three metropolitan areas was found to have had similar structure and patterns during the study period. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes are quite different from land-use categories,meaning that the mechanism of urban land-use changes comparatively differs among land-use categories. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction reveal the effect of spatial autocorrelation in the spatial process of urban land-use changes in the three metropolitan areas,which correspond with the characteristics of agglomeration of urban land-use allocation in Japan. Neighborhood interaction amidst urban land-use changes between the three metropolitan areas generally showed similar characteristics. The regressed neighborhood interaction coefficients in the models may represent the general characteristics of neighborhood effect on urban land-use changes in the cities of Japan. The results provide very significant materials for exploring the mechanism of urban land-use changes and the construction of universal urban geosimulation models which may be applied to any city in Japan.     

Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes: A comparative study between three metropolitan areas of Japan

Local spatial interaction between neighborhood land-use categories (i.e. neighborhood interaction) is an important factor which affects urban land-use change patterns. Therefore, it is a key component in cellular automata (CA)-based urban geosimulation models towards the simulation and forecast of urban land-use changes. Purpose of this paper is to interpret the similarities and differences of the characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of different metropolitan areas in Japan for providing empirical materials to understand the mechanism of urban land-use changes and construct urban geosimulation models. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of three metropolitan areas in Japan, i.e. Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, were compared using such aids as the neighborhood interaction model and similarity measure function. As a result, urban land-use in the three metropolitan areas was found to have had similar structure and patterns during the study period. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes are quite different from land-use categories, meaning that the mechanism of urban land-use changes comparatively differs among land-use categories. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction reveal the effect of spatial autocorrelation in the spatial process of urban land-use changes in the three metropolitan areas, which correspond with the characteristics of agglomeration of urban land-use allocation in Japan. Neighborhood interaction amidst urban land-use changes between the three metropolitan areas generally showed similar characteristics. The regressed neighborhood interaction coefficients in the models may represent the general characteristics of neighborhood effect on urban land-use changes in the cities of Japan. The results provide very significant materials for exploring the mechanism of urban land-use changes and the construction of universal urban geosimulation models which may be applied to any city in Japan.     

A TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY FOR INDIANA

Analysis of data collected between 1950 and 1995 in the state of Indiana indicates that the state experiences an average of nearly 19 tornadoes each year, which occur on approximately 8 or 9 days during an average year. Analysis of storm dimensions indicates that the annual probability of a point location in Indiana being impacted by a tornado is 1.4 × 10^-4 per year. The largest number of the more intense tornadoes (F2 and higher) typically occur from March to June, during the afternoon and evening, although tornadoes have been observed in each month of the year and each hour of the day. Inter-annual variability of tornadic events in Indiana is large and may reflect both physical causes (e.g., the variability of cyclone passages or jet stream location) and recording bias (e.g., increased public awareness during the 1950s). Using the data set from Indiana, statistical analyses of the temporal and spatial variability of tornadoes are undertaken. Analyses of tornado reports by county indicate that, in addition to area and population, surface roughness is a significant determinant of event frequency. Analyses presented herein also indicate that in contrast to previous studies, (1) no statistically significant hebdomadal cycle of tornado reporting is evident in the data and (2) the diurnal cycle of tornado records is evident for all F-scale classes and is not confined largely to the weak tornado categories. Analyses of the physical dimensions and F-scale ratings of tornadoes in Indiana indicate that there has been a decline in reported tornado intensity, width, and length between 1950 and 1995. These changes are in accord with evidence of a decreasing number of reports of strong and violent tornadoes across the United States over this period and appears to be principally a result of reporting biases at the beginning of the record. [Key words: tornado climatology, temporal and spatial variability, reporting bias.]     

Climate variability impact assessment on the flood risk in Slovenia

Assessment of climate change or climate variability is a significant topic in most geophysical disciplines. In this study, the flood frequency approach was selected to analyze changes in flood series. Discharge data from 55 gaging stations in Slovenia were used. The annual maximum method was applied to define the samples. The data sets were divided into 30-year periods based on a 10-year moving window. For each part of the data-set, the flood frequency analysis was performed. Changes in the estimated design discharge values with a 10-year return period, which is commonly used in engineering design, were observed for the two selected 30-year periods, namely 1961–1990 and 1981–2010, and the results were compared with the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. The results indicate that no uniform pattern can be found in the differences between estimated design discharge values for the two selected periods. The same applies to the MK trend test results, which were positive and statistically significant with the chosen significance level of 0.05 only for approximately 5% of stations. However, our comparison of the results of the flood frequency analyses among different 30-year periods showed considerable changes in the design discharge for some stations.     

Transformation of accommodation space of the Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation, the Songliao Basin, NE China

Analysis of accommodation space variation during deposition of the Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation in the Songliao Basin, NE China, indicates that accommodation space changed both through time and across the basin as a seesaw movement. The mid‐upper Qingshankou Formation is divided into three units. In each unit, changes of accommodation space differ in the southern and northern part of the basin. Increasing accommodation in the southern part is accompanied by a decrease in the northern part, and vice versa. Between the northern and southern basin, there was a neutral belt that is like a fulcrum, called the transformation belt here, where the accommodation did not change to any significant degree. We call this response ‘accommodation transformation’, whose characteristics are defined by tectonic subsidence analysis, palaeontological and sedimentary analyses. The accommodation increasing belt, decreasing belt, transformation belt and accommodation transformation boundary together constitute the accommodation transformation system. The recognition of accommodation transformation in the Songliao Basin provides a new insight into sequence stratigraphy and might be widely applicable.     

Environmental magnetic record of Antarctic palaeoclimate from Eocene/Oligocene glaciomarine sediments, Victoria Land Basin

The onset of continent-wide glaciation in Antarctica is still poorly understood, despite being one of the most important palaeoclimatic events in the Cenozoic. The Eocene/Oligocene boundary interval has recently been recognized as a critical time for Antarctic climatic evolution, and it may mark the preglacial–glacial transition. Magnetic susceptibility, intensity of natural and artificial remanences, hysteresis parameters and magnetic anisotropy of the lower half (late Eocene/early Oligocene) of the CIROS-1 core (from McMurdo Sound, Antarctica) reveal alternating intervals of high and low magnetic mineral concentrations that do not correspond to lithostratigraphic units in the core. Pseudo-single-domain magnetite is the main magnetic mineral throughout the sequence, and sharp changes in magnetite concentration match changes in clay mineralogy beneath and at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. The detrital magnetite originated from weathering of the Ferrar Group (which comprises basic extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks). Weathering processes and input of magnetite to the Victoria Land Basin were intense during periods when the Antarctic climate was warmer than today, but during intervals when the climate was relatively cool, chemical weathering of the Ferrar Group was suppressed and input of detrital magnetite to the Victoria Land Basin decreased. Our results also indicate that a cold and dry climate was not established in Antarctica until the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, with major ice sheet growth occurring at the early/late Oligocene boundary. Some earlier cold intervals are identified, which indicate that climate had begun to deteriorate by the middle/late Eocene boundary.     

China’s agricultural land use change and its underlying drivers: A literature review

Understanding the manifestations and underlying drivers of agricultural land use change in China is of great importance for both domestic and global food security.However,little is known about the holistic pattern of agricultural land use change across China,espe-cially from the perspective of intensity since the evidence has been gathered mainly through case studies at local levels.This study conducts a systemic review of agricultural land use change and its underlying drivers in China by aggregating 169 relevant case studies from 123 publications.The cases related to intensification and disintensification,which are the two types of agricultural land use change,are generally equal,accounting for 50％ of the total number of cases.Intensification and disintensification can be further divided into the same three categories:expansion/contraction of agricultural land,changes in agricultural land use activities and changes in land management intensity.Demographic,economic,technological,and institutional drivers,together with location factors,are frequently noted as significant underlying drivers,while sociocultural drivers and farm(er) characteristics are less frequently recognized.Finally,three major land use change trajectories are summarized mainly con-ceming rising labor costs and the concomitant increase in off-farm employment,the ecologi-cal improvement policy,and advances in agricultural technology.