城市土地利用变化中邻域相互作用的特征——日本三大都市圈的比较研究

Local spatial interaction between neighborhood land-use categories (i.e. neighborhood interaction) is an important factor which affects urban land-use change patterns. Therefore,it is a key component in cellular automata (CA)-based urban geosimulation models towards the simulation and forecast of urban land-use changes. Purpose of this paper is to interpret the similarities and differences of the characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of different metropolitan areas in Japan for providing empirical materials to understand the mechanism of urban land-use changes and construct urban geosimulation models. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes of three metropolitan areas in Japan,i.e. Tokyo,Osaka,and Nagoya,were compared using such aids as the neighborhood interaction model and similarity measure function. As a result,urban land-use in the three metropolitan areas was found to have had similar structure and patterns during the study period. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction in urban land-use changes are quite different from land-use categories,meaning that the mechanism of urban land-use changes comparatively differs among land-use categories. Characteristics of neighborhood interaction reveal the effect of spatial autocorrelation in the spatial process of urban land-use changes in the three metropolitan areas,which correspond with the characteristics of agglomeration of urban land-use allocation in Japan. Neighborhood interaction amidst urban land-use changes between the three metropolitan areas generally showed similar characteristics. The regressed neighborhood interaction coefficients in the models may represent the general characteristics of neighborhood effect on urban land-use changes in the cities of Japan. The results provide very significant materials for exploring the mechanism of urban land-use changes and the construction of universal urban geosimulation models which may be applied to any city in Japan.     

A land-use mix allocation model considering adjacency,intensity, and proximity

ABSTRACT

Land-Use Mix (LUM) refers to the strategy of integrating complementary functions within a building or area. While LUM has become a dominant approach in urban planning, its actual benefits and vision for spatial planning remain unclear. To clarify this issue, this study discerns the spatial features of land-use patterns depending on the compatibilities among land-use categories. Accordingly, this study introduces three LUM measures – adjacency, intensity, and proximity – to identify differences in the spatial distribution of land-use categories. Based on these measures, a land-use allocation model is developed to specify spatial patterns satisfying the given compatibilities. This model is tested by applying the concept of the neighborhood unit on a case study of normative land-use patterns subject to specified compatibilities. The results describe spatial features of four compatibility sets, including a set exhibiting a compatibility conflict between the same land-use pair and LUM measures when, for example, a given land-use pair is compatible in terms of intensity but incompatible in terms of proximity. Understanding the spatial features of a normative land-use pattern that satisfies various possible compatibilities will facilitate the incorporation of the LUM approach into local planning guidance and zoning ordinances.     

Metropolitan land-use patterns by economic function: a spatial analysis of firm headquarters and branch office locations in Australian cities

This paper develops a comparative means by which to understand metropolitan spatial structure through the dynamics of economic activities. Clustering and suburbanization have been key processes within the contemporary urban landscape, but few scholarly accounts have systematically merged the two to explain the geographies of economic activity. Using firm location as a variable to discern sector- and industry-based locational requirements, we explore land-use and economic activity in Australia’s five largest metropolitan areas. Drawing upon the respective headquarters and branch office locations of a set of publically traded firms, we seek to establish general spatial patterns across Australian cities using two proxy measures for clustering and suburbanization, being well-established drivers of firm locational choice. Despite the complexity that post-industrial and suburbanizing processes add to metropolitan land-use patterns, we contend that certain patterns exist that can be generalized from one context to another across urban space, and that certain emerging trends such as the development of CBD-fringe precincts merit greater attention.     

土地利用动态模拟模型的构建及其应用——以北京市海淀区为例

CLUE-S模型是一个基于经验统计原理的模拟多土地利用类型空间变化的动态模拟模型,它在世界多个国家和地区的区域尺度农业、森林为主的土地利用变化模拟中得到应用。作者对CLUE-S模型进行了改进,改进后的模型 (CLUE-SII) 引入了动态计算的邻域分析因子,可以对土地利用变化中的自发过程、自组织过程和土地利用类型间的竞争进行模拟,还可以根据研究区域特点构建不同的模拟方案,在这些模拟方案中,局地因子和邻域因子在土地利用变化中的作用方式不同。应用CLUE-SII对北京市海淀区1991~2001年土地利用变化进行了多方案模拟,结果表明邻域因子对城镇用地变化具有重要作用,其中将邻域因子看作自发过程放大因子的模拟方案获得了较好的模拟结果,整图符合比达到77%,其中城镇用地符合比达到82%,Kappa值达到0.754。CLUE-SII在北京市海淀区的应用实例表明,该模型可以对高分辨率和多土地利用类型下的城市扩展进行有效模拟,扩展了CLUE-S的应用领域;通过构建多模拟方案,不但可以探索最佳的模拟结果,还可以研究和分析不同土地利用驱动因子在土地利用变化中的作用模式。     

基于地理模拟方法的昆明市空间拓展情景分析

改革开放以来,西部高原湖滨城市经历的快速城镇化进程给湖泊流域带来了较为严重的生态环境问题,未来城市空间发展政策的调整需要关注城市空间拓展对区域生态环境的影响。以位于滇池湖滨地区的昆明市为例,设定6种不用的城市空间拓展政策情景,应用SLEUTH模型预测了6种情景下未来20年的城市空间格局,采用空间指数和空间分析方法对预测结果进行了分析评价。结果表明：昆明市城市建成区具有典型的摊大饼式空间拓展模式,城市道路网对城市形态具有重要的影响。6种情景模式下未来昆明市建成区空间格局既有相似性,也表现出显著的差异。城市建设用地空间格局总体上呈集约、紧凑型的发展趋势。生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对滇池湖滨地区的景观影响最小。多中心城市发展格局和城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对城市总体空间规模的控制具有明显的效果,但不宜在湖滨地区实施。滇池湖滨地区需要划定景观或生态保护区,严格禁止城市建设用地对湖滨用地景观的占用与分割。滇池湖滨以外的区域,适宜执行生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的多中心发展模式。     

基于地理模拟方法的昆明市空间拓展情景分析简

改革开放以来,西部高原湖滨城市经历的快速城镇化进程给湖泊流域带来了较为严重的生态环境问题,未来城市空间发展政策的调整需要关注城市空间拓展对区域生态环境的影响。以位于滇池湖滨地区的昆明市为例,设定6种不用的城市空间拓展政策情景,应用SLEUTH模型预测了6种情景下未来20年的城市空间格局,采用空间指数和空间分析方法对预测结果进行了分析评价。结果表明：昆明市城市建成区具有典型的摊大饼式空间拓展模式,城市道路网对城市形态具有重要的影响。6种情景模式下未来昆明市建成区空间格局既有相似性,也表现出显著的差异。城市建设用地空间格局总体上呈集约、紧凑型的发展趋势。生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对滇池湖滨地区的景观影响最小。多中心城市发展格局和城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对城市总体空间规模的控制具有明显的效果,但不宜在湖滨地区实施。滇池湖滨地区需要划定景观或生态保护区,严格禁止城市建设用地对湖滨用地景观的占用与分割。滇池湖滨以外的区域,适宜执行生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的多中心发展模式。     

Simulating urban growth under planning policies through parcel-based cellular automata (ParCA) model

In recent decades, the cellular automata model, among the urban development prediction models, has been applied considerably. Studies show that the output of conventional cellular automata models is sensitive to cell size and neighborhood structure, and varies with changes in the size of these parameters. To solve this problem, vector-based cellular automata models have been introduced which have overcome the mentioned limitations and presented better results. The aim of this study was to present a parcel-based cellular automata (ParCA) model for simulating urban growth under planning policies. In this model, undeveloped areas are first subdivided into smaller parcels, based on some geometric parameters; then, neighborhood effect of parcels is defined in a radial structure, based on a weighted function of distance, area, land-use, and service level of irregular cadastral parcels. After that, neighborhood effect is evaluated using three components, including compactness, dependency and compatibility. The presented model was implemented and analyzed using data from municipal region 22 of Tehran. The obtained results indicated the high ability of ParCA model in allocating various land-uses to parcels in the appropriateness of the layout of different land-uses. This model can be used in decision-making and urban land-use planning activities, since it provides the possibility of allocating different urban land-use types and assessing different urban-growth scenarios.     

A spatial zoning approach to calibrate and validate urban growth models

Calibration and validation of models predicting urban growth have been largely developed using internal variables. Further investigation is required to improve model’s calibration and validation mixing internal and external variables. To reach this objective, a spatial zoning approach simulating long-term expansion of Mashhad, the second largest city of Iran, was presented in this study. Spatial zoning approaches distinguish local-scale urban dynamics in districts with different socioeconomic characteristics. Thiessen polygons were used to identify districts with different morphology and functional attributes. Urban growth was subsequently simulated for each district using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network and Markov chains (MC) analysis. MLP and MC algorithms were respectively used to derive transition maps from non-urban to urban use of land and to determine spatial evolution of built-up areas at the metropolitan scale. Results of simulations based on spatial zoning were compared with outcomes of traditional urban growth models. Spatial zoning improved significantly model’s accuracy in respect to more traditional simulation modes. The approach proposed here is appropriate when simulating land-use changes under discontinuous urban expansion.     

基于高速公路流的东北大都市区边界识别与结构特征研究

利用高速公路收费站数据分析东北大都市区的空间边界与中心-外围结构特征。研究发现,① 中心城市高速公路流随距离的分布符合距离衰减规律,随规模位序的累积分布符合“二八定律”,但在具体的指标阈值上却表现出显著差异。② 四大都市区在空间上相连,以较小的国土面积承载了区域主要的社会经济活动。沈阳都市区和大连都市区在城镇关联体系中已实现融合;沈阳都市区、长春都市区、哈尔滨都市区间的空间联系则相对松散。③ 高速公路流空间下,各大都市区中心-外围空间结构表现出空间圈层、功能廊道和边界切割的典型特征。     

Population landscape: a geometric approach to studying spatial patterns of the US urban hierarchy

We present a geometric and graphic approach to studying spatial patterns of urban hierarchy in the US. The multiplicatively weighted Voronoi diagram is found to be effective for visualizing theoretical regions delineated by socio‐economic variables. The population landscape of the continental US demonstrates overall and stepwise patterns reflecting population, neighborhood and distance, with overwhelming influence from huge metropolitan areas. Stepwise exploration and cluster analysis of the spatial pattern reveal an urban hierarchy. Attributes and arrangement are the two important factors of urban hierarchy, with attribute having a stronger local influence and arrangement having a stronger global influence. The study also presents a variation of Zipf's law to visualize the rank‐size distribution from tabular and statistical space to map space.     

CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN METROPOLITAN AREAS *

Different types of farming in metropolitan areas show both negative and positive responses to urban and nonurban forces of change. The variety of impacts has been neglected by most spatial intensity models and land use studies. This study examines census data from 1949 to 1982 in seven major U.S. metropolitan areas for six commodity types to detect regular patterns of changes in sales value, area harvested, number of animals, and intensity of production. Results show large declines in dairy farming, followed by poultry and fruit and nuts; some recent recovery in vegetable crops; and steady increases in both low value field crops and high value horticultural specialties. A trend toward polarization of metropolitan agriculture is indicated. Results also show differences between inner and outer urban fringe areas and a decline in the differential in intensity of production between metropolitan and non-metropolitan agriculture.     

The typology of the American metropolis: monocentricity,polycentricity, or generalized dispersion?

Although the spatial structure of employment in large US metropolitan regions is a well-researched topic, few studies focus on medium-sized and small US metropolitan regions. Consequently, there is no overall typology relating small-to-medium urban form to employment distribution. We address this gap by investigating the spatial structure of employment in 356 metropolitan regions. We conceptualize six typologies based on three categories that have overlapping properties: “monocentricity,” “polycentricity,” and “generalized dispersion.” The study has three main findings. First, the three types of urban form that we identify as “hybrid” outnumber the three “pure” types by almost four to one. Second, job dispersion is a dominant characteristic in almost 70% of all metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) (including the hybrid types), and polycentricity (56.7% of MSAs) is somewhat more common than monocentricity. Third, there is a strong relationship between population size and density. The population of medium-sized metropolitan areas is generally more dispersed than that of small and large metropolitan areas. Polycentricy emerges mostly in large metropolitan regions, while monocentrity is found in both small and large metropolitan regions.     

日本三大都市圈快速轻轨交通网的形成与发展

三大都市圈的快速轻轨交通以快速、高效而闻名于世.快速轻轨交通的建设为现代化城市交通的发展奠定了良好的基础,对于东京、大阪、名古屋三大都市圈的形成与发展起到了积极的促进作用.日本三大都市圈的快速轻轨交通的建设始于19世纪末期,到20世纪20年代,日本三大都市圈的快速轻轨交通网的骨架基本形成.在快速轻轨交通的建设中,日本政府、城市地方政府的主导作用以及民营资本的积极参与都起到了重要作用.第二次世界大战以后通过不断地对原有线路进行改造和新线的建设,使得三大都市圈的快速轻轨交通网日趋完善.随着三大都市圈城市地域结构的变化,三大都市圈快速轻轨交通的建设重点由路网的全面改造转移到提高主要线路的功能方面.其中,对临海、内陆工业区与城市中心地区的联络线路和居住、教育文化机构聚集的郊区新城与城市中心地区的联络线路的改造和新建成为日本三大都市圈快速轻轨交通发展的重点.     

MANUFACTURING LOCATION IN A POLYCENTRIC URBAN AREA: A STUDY IN THE COMPOSITION AND ATTRACTIVENESS OF EMPLOYMENT SUBCENTERS

Attention has shifted to the role of subsidiary urban centers as the new “spatial nodes” within metropolitan areas as manufacturing employment has dispersed away from its traditional central city locations over the past decades. Understanding the character and evolving functions of these new “centers” is crucial to predicting (or influencing) future metropolitan spatial patterns. This paper explores the nature and role of the principal employment centers within the Dallas-Fort Worth region from the perspective of locational choices by firms in three-digit SIC Manufacturing. First the centers are empirically identified via a methodology that “maps” employment land-use polygons onto a zip code-level geography. The industrial attributes of firms choosing such centers are then investigated using multinomial logit. The general attractiveness to firms in manufacturing of various spatial characteristics of these centers are next studied through a discrete choice framework. Finally, a “mixed” conditional logit model is specified and implemented to identify special affinities between a type of firm and a kind of location. Results of the exercise enable judgment on the utility of the employment center concept and on industrial location behavior in a modem urban context.     

Metropolitan Area Job Accessibility and the Working Poor: Exploring Local Spatial Variations Of Geographic context

Critical geographic perspectives argue that employment access in U.S. metropolitan areas is more complex than traditional understandings, calling for research utilizing approaches that reflect the spatially dynamic structure of cities. This study uses a job proximity indicator of employment access among the working poor, with cluster analysis and spatial regimes modeling, to explore the spatial dimensions of geographic context (neighborhood characteristics) at a localized scale. The findings indicate that: (1) patterns of high or low employment access are not consistent with neoclassical conceptualizations of metropolitan areas; and (2) the statistical relationship between geographic context indicators and the measure of job accessibility were not spatially constant, but varied across the urban landscape. This supports the critical geographic arguments that a high degree of complexity underlies the employment access problem. To better inform public policy, future empirical research needs access to more sophisticated data and methodological approaches to analyze this complex sociospatial phenomenon.     

东京都市圈人口变迁与产业重构特征研究

作为一种新的城市功能地域形态,都市圈是城镇化发展到一定阶段的产物。论文以东京都市圈为研究对象,借助人口密集地区(Densely Inhabited District,DID)、人口净迁入率、产业区位商、空间基尼系数等指标,系统梳理20世纪60年代以来东京都市圈人口集疏格局演化、人口流动时空变迁以及产业结构转换和空间重组特征。研究表明,从人口集疏格局来看,东京都市圈人口分布逐渐从“孤岛式集聚”走向“连绵式展开”,但核心辐射范围仍集中于50 km半径内,此外,DID人口集聚趋势持续强化。从人口流动格局来看,东京都市圈始终表现出强大的人口集聚态势,成为日本人口困境中的一枝独秀,内部大规模郊区化基本结束,“都心回归”趋势明显。从产业结构调整来看,东京都市圈三产比重持续上升、二产比重大幅下滑、第一产业持续萎缩,已逐步实现从工业主导向服务业主导转变。从产业空间重组来看,东京都市圈逐步形成梯度发展、阶层趋于固化的产业空间结构,服务业和高附加值轻工业中心集聚,技术密集型重工业外围布局。     

HISTORIC PRESERVATION AND SOCIAL STABILITY IN SACRAMENTO'S OLD CITY

Sacramento’s Old City contains the CBD of a metropolitan area of 1.5 million people and adjacent residential neighborhoods housing 32,000 people. This essay reviews the evolving social character of the Old City, which has been the subject of substantial preservation efforts since 1960. Survey questionnaires sent to members of the Sacramento Old City Association (SOCA) in 1977 and 1992 reveal continuity in most characteristics and attitudes. Although SOCA is a largely white and upper-income organization, and although SOCA’s main policy thrust is to preserve the single-family housing stock of the Old City, the record of neighborhood social change over the past two decades shows limited gentrification and enduring economic, ethnic, and life-style diversity. Characteristics of the metropolitan area and of the locality-its inherited land-use patterns and building stock, traffic, and indistinct residential image-work against gentrification. The Old City continues as a physically and socially eclectic place, in contrast to more thoroughly gentrified central neighborhoods in other, larger and more globally oriented, American cities.     

大连市内部地域结构转型与郊区化

在回顾大连城市内涪地域结构形成发展的基础上,分析了８０年代以来大连城市土地利用结构的总体变化趋势,并尝试提出了大连市内部地域结构模式图。８０年代期间,大连市内部地域结构已开始由单中心集聚型向多中心集聚与扩散并存型转型,而这种转型是大连市效区化现象在城市地域上的空间反映。     

职住建成环境对郊区居民通勤方式的影响

郊区化带来的职住空间分离与机动化出行问题受到了城市地理与城市规划界的广泛关注。汽车依赖已经成为大城市郊区空间发展过程中面临的现实问题,如何减少汽车通勤比例、鼓励公共交通和非机动化通勤,已经成为城市交通可持续发展的重要目标。基于城市兴趣点数据（POI）与2017年上海市郊区居民活动日志调查数据,通过多项logit模型分析了居民居住地与工作地周边建成环境对通勤方式的影响,并建立中介效应模型探讨长距离通勤对通勤方式产生的间接效应。研究发现提升居住地的地铁站可达性、土地混合利用程度,控制居住地和工作地的设施密度等措施有利于减少汽车出行,而建成环境特征差异对通勤方式的影响要大于对通勤距离的影响。通勤距离对通勤方式选择具有显著的中介效应,对于步行和自行车通勤的影响最为明显。社区环境的提升应从增加设施多样性和公共交通可达性,营造良好的步行、骑行环境等方面来促进居民的绿色通勤行为。     

多元主体视角下大城市边缘区空间治理结构、机制及路径研究

随着新型城镇化和乡村振兴战略的深入推进,大城市边缘区空间治理对于实现城乡均衡发展具有重要意义。多元主体协同共治是国家治理体系及治理能力提升的明确要求,论文基于多元主体视角,对大城市边缘区空间治理理论框架模型、结构、问题、机制以及路径进行了深入探究。随着大城市边缘区治理主体由单一主体向多元主体协同转型,城乡空间逐渐向均衡状态发展。在治理结构上,大城市边缘区空间治理结构逐渐由单中心结构向多中心网络结构转型。治理问题上,多元主体对大城市边缘区空间资源争夺造成物质空间混杂、社会空间分异以及空间权力不均衡3个方面问题。从机制角度分析,多元主体遵循各自的空间治理需求和逻辑对大城市边缘区实施相应的治理机制。基于多元主体协同,提出大城市边缘区空间治理优化路径。最后,总结大城市边缘区空间“治理结构—治理问题—治理机制—路径优化”递进式研究框架,以完善多元主体视角下大城市边缘区空间治理理论与实践分析研究。