基于地理模拟方法的昆明市空间拓展情景分析简

改革开放以来，西部高原湖滨城市经历的快速城镇化进程给湖泊流域带来了较为严重的生态环境问题，未来城市空间发展政策的调整需要关注城市空间拓展对区域生态环境的影响。以位于滇池湖滨地区的昆明市为例，设定6种不用的城市空间拓展政策情景，应用SLEUTH模型预测了6种情景下未来20年的城市空间格局，采用空间指数和空间分析方法对预测结果进行了分析评价。结果表明：昆明市城市建成区具有典型的摊大饼式空间拓展模式，城市道路网对城市形态具有重要的影响。6种情景模式下未来昆明市建成区空间格局既有相似性，也表现出显著的差异。城市建设用地空间格局总体上呈集约、紧凑型的发展趋势。生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对滇池湖滨地区的景观影响最小。多中心城市发展格局和城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对城市总体空间规模的控制具有明显的效果，但不宜在湖滨地区实施。滇池湖滨地区需要划定景观或生态保护区，严格禁止城市建设用地对湖滨用地景观的占用与分割。滇池湖滨以外的区域，适宜执行生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的多中心发展模式。

Scenario analysis of urban growth in Kunming based on geosimulation system

Cities in the lake watershed on the plateau of western China have experienced a rapid urbanization process and greatly changed land-use/land-cover since 1978 when China started the reform and opening up policy. The great land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) brought serious ecosystem and environmental problems to the lake watershed. Regional and urban development policies should be adjusted to improve human-friendly ecosystem and environment. This paper uses LULCC data derived from remote sensing images to calibrate geosimulation system for grasping the mechanism of LULCC in a case study of Kunming city in the Lake Dianchi watershed of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Six kinds of urban development policies are set to forecast land-use/land-cover pattern of Kunming through calibrated geosimulation system. Spatial metrics and spatial analysis methods are adopted to assess the impact of policies scenarios on the Lake Dianchi watershed. The results show that LULCC in Kunming city was characterized by typical urban sprawl since 1974. Urban road network played an important role in land-use/land-cover pattern. Urban landscape of Kunming in the future shows a characteristic of intensive and compact development trend. The integrated policy scenario of environmental protection and urban development control has positive impact on the watershed. The policy also advantages the share of urban public facilities and concentrated process of urban garbage. When the integrated policy scenario of multi-centers and urban development control has notable effect on urban size control, the policy is not appropriate in the near shore area of Lake Dianchi. Landscape preservation area should be set in the near shore area of Lake Dianchi to prohibit the transformation of agricultural land to urban built-up area. The integrated policy of environmental protection and urban development control should be carried out in the area except the near shore of Lake Dianchi.