双线性模型在江淮旱涝序列预测中的应用

提出了一套用双线性模型预测旱涝序列的简便方案。实例的计算结果说明了该方案的实用性和通用性,在各种自然灾害序列预测中具有重要的理论意义和广泛的应用价值。     

The partitioning of attached and detached eddy motion in the atmospheric surface layer using Lorentz wavelet filtering

Townsend's attached eddy hypothesis states that the turbulent structure in the constant stress layer can be decomposed into attached and detached eddy motion. This paper proposes and tests a methodology for separating the attached and detached eddy motion from time series measurements of velocity and temperature. The proposed methodology is based on the time-frequency localization and filtering capabilities of the orthonormal wavelet transforms. Using a relative entropy statistical measure, the optimal wavelet basis is identified first. The turbulence time series measurements are then transformed into the wavelet domain where the contribution of specific events in the time-frequency domain is identified. The filtering scheme utilizes a recently constructed Lorentz thresholding methodology that successfully eliminates all wavelet coefficients associated with the detached eddy motion. While this filtering scheme lacks the compression efficiency of the classical Donoho and Johnstone's universal thresholding model, it conserves the higher-order statistics and important turbulence interactions related to the Reynolds stresses. Following the filtering scheme, the attached eddy motion time series is re-constructed by an inverse wavelet transform of the non-zero wavelet coefficients. The proposed partitioning methodology for attached and detached eddy motion is tested using 56 Hz triaxial sonic anemometer velocity and temperature measurements above a uniform dry lake bed in Owens valley, California, for a wide range of atmospheric stability conditions. Validation that the wavelet filtered time series represents the attached eddy motion is also discussed in the context of conservation of turbulence energy and surface fluxes.     

长江流域夏季降水的贝叶斯多模式集合概率预测

A Bayesian probabilistic prediction scheme of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) summer rainfall is proposed to combine forecast information from multi-model ensemble dataset provided by ENSEMBLES project.Due to the low forecast skill of rainfall in dynamic models,the time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall are selected as ensemble members in the new scheme,instead of commonly-used YRV summer rainfall simulated by models.Each time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall is derived from a simple linear regression.The predictor in each simple linear regression is the skillfully simulated circulation or surface temperature factor which is highly linear with the observed YRV summer rainfall in the training set.The high correlation between the ensemble mean of these regressed YRV summer rainfall and observation benefit extracting more sample information from the ensemble system.The results show that the cross-validated skill of the new scheme over the period of 1960 to 2002 is much higher than equally-weighted ensemble,multiple linear regression,and Bayesian ensemble with simulated YRV summer rainfall as ensemble members.In addition,the new scheme is also more skillful than reference forecasts (random forecast at a 0.01 significance level for ensemble mean and climatology forecast for probability density function).     

半拉格朗日、半隐式欧拉方程组大气数值模式研究

介绍了一个具有较高时间积分效率的三维弹性大气数值模式。其中,控制方程为能够描述大气非静力及可压缩性的欧拉方程组,时间积分采用了高效率的“半拉格朗日、半隐式”方案。通过引用一个简化的“云物理过程”参数化方案,针对大气中深厚湿对流过程的若干问题进行了数值试验,结果表明,模式能够对该过程中的一些基本和复杂现象进行有效地模拟。试验结果还表明,动力学框架具有很好的稳定性,能够实现高效率的时间积分,它还具有较好的频散特性,保证了空间计算的精度,从而完好地描述了风暴的形态。     

小波功率谱Monte Carlo显著性检验的一个简易方案

对一个气象量时间序列p={P（t）,t=^-1,n},通过相空间中的几何分析直观地阐明了Morlet小波功率谱W（t,k）的计算原理,给出了一个对W（t,k）作Monte Carlo显著性检验的方案。由于该方案中随机序列的产生与分析序列p的理论分布无关,实施简单易行。对6月100hPa南亚高压强度指数序列的小波功率谱显著性检验表明,该方案能充分揭示p中年际、年代际振荡随时间的变化,因而具有实际应用价值。     

Local air temperature tolerance: a sensible basis for estimating climate variability

The customary representation of climate using sample moments is generally biased due to the noticeably nonstationary behaviour of many climate series. In this study, we introduce a moment-free climate representation based on a statistical model fitted to a long-term daily air temperature anomaly series. This model allows us to separate the climate and weather scale variability in the series. As a result, the climate scale can be characterized using the mean annual cycle of series and local air temperature tolerance, where the latter is computed using the fitted model. The representation of weather scale variability is specified using the frequency and the range of outliers based on the tolerance. The scheme is illustrated using five long-term air temperature records observed by different European meteorological stations.     

EXPERIMENTS WITH SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS ON SSTA OVER THE NINO OCEANIC REGION

Predictions of averaged SST monthly anomalous series for Nino 1-4 regions in the context of auto-adaptive filter are made using a model combining the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and auto-regression (AR). The results have shown that the scheme is efticient in forward forecaning of the strong ENSO event in 1997-1998, it is of high reliability in retrospective forecasting of three corresponding historical strong ENSO events. It is seen that the scheme has stable skill and large accuracy for experiments of both independent samples and real cases.With modifications, the SSA-AR scheme is expected to become an efficient model in routine predictions of ENSO.     

Simulation of Time Series of Concentration Fluctuations in Atmospheric Dispersion Using a Correlation-distortion Technique

Short-duration fluctuations in the concentration of airborne substances can be important in a variety of atmospheric dispersion problems, especially when assessing the risks posed by harmful materials. This paper discusses a simulation technique for generating individual realisations of fluctuating concentration time series in dispersing plumes based on target probability distributions and spectral functions. The scheme uses a correlation-distortion approach to simulate these time series. Gaussian processes with modified spectral characteristics are generated and then transformed to yield non-Gaussian processes with the desired spectral characteristics. The simulation scheme is initially developed for a single receptor, and is then extended to model pairs of correlated time series at two receptors. In fact, the modelling technique can be generalised to an arbitrary number of receptors and this provides, in principal, an approach that is applicable to a wide class of similar problems (such as the modelling of instantaneous puff releases or the response of line-of-sight detection systems). The simulation technique is illustrated using observations made during recent field experiments, conducted both in the United Kingdom and in the U.S.A., investigating the short-range dispersion of a passive tracer.     

三阶龙格-库塔时间分裂显式算法的误差分析

分析了新一代非静力中尺度数值模式中常用的三阶龙格-库塔时间分裂显式算法(RK3)的稳定性和误差性质,特别是分析了空间中央差分和迎风偏斜两种不同情况下该算法不同的稳定性和误差性质。运用数学软件先进的符号计算功能,分析了该算法涉及的复杂高阶、高次幂振幅矩阵的特征值性质;并通过一维线性声波-平流方程组的数值模拟实验,检验了时间分裂算法的模拟效果。对振幅矩阵特征值模的表达式进行高阶的级数展开,得到了该算法的分裂误差项的公式;而且,由于特征值模的公式保留了较高阶项,可以同时分析迎风偏斜和中央差两种空间差分格式的分裂误差性质。根据分裂误差项公式,定量地比较了三阶和二阶龙格-库塔格式(RK2)的分裂误差大小以及误差与小时间步数的关系,发现迎风格式RK3的分裂误差明显小于RK2的误差,并具有更好的稳定性质。空间中央差格式的分裂误差项具有更高阶数,比迎风格式具有更小的时间分裂误差。对于各种不同波长的特征值分析和采用中央差格式的数值模拟,也进一步证实空间差分采用中央差时,RK3时间分裂显式算法在不同方向传播的声波振幅几乎没有差别。另外,误差公式以及数值试验结果说明RK3的分裂误差也略小于Adams-Bashforth-Moulton分裂显式法的分裂误差。     

广州中尺度模式局地要素预报性能分析

该文简要介绍了华南中尺度模式的地表要素的预报诊断方案, 站点要素时间序列预报情况.用适合站点要素时间序列预报的检验方法, 检验并分析了各要素时间序列预报的性能.表明该中尺度模式的地表要素时间序列预报方案是有效的, 预报具有较高的准确性和应用价值.     

墨西哥帽小波变换的影响域和计算方案新探讨

该文分析了Torrence等人研究的墨西哥帽 (Mexican Hat) 小波变换的影响域和高频失真问题并探讨了解决方案。平移点b处、小波尺度为a的墨西哥帽小波函数的有效定义域为[ b-2.12a, b+2.12a], 以墨西哥帽为母函数的小波变换的真正影响域是2.12a, 小波尺度a的最大值应为N/4.24(N为时间序列长度)。提出了充分利用小波函数速降性质和立方样条插值小波系数的新计算方案, 消除了该计算方案产生虚假的显著高频周期振荡问题。利用正弦函数型时间序列小波变换的解析式检验了文中提出的新计算方案的合理性。利用新计算方案对冬季Ni?o3.4指数进行分析, 冬季Ni?o3.4指数的平均整体小波功率谱表明, 存在约12年的年代际变化和准4年的年际变化, 不存在显著的准两年周期振荡。     

一个简单的陆面过程模式

本模式为针对大气环流模式所发展的一个简单的陆面过程模式，它包含:（1）地表温度计算，（2）冠层叶面贮水量和土壤湿度计算，（3）陆面与大气之间的水分和能量交换。对于表面温度和含水量的计算，采用的是联立求解计算方案，即耦合计算。植被冠层叶面的辐射特性和冠层形态对冠层中的辐射交换的影响得到有效和尽可能简单的模拟。另外，植被的气孔阻抗、表面与大气之间的水热交换通量和土壤中的水热输导作了较为细致的描写。利用此模式开展了对两个不同覆盖类型的陆面过程的模拟，模拟和观测的表面通量、温度和湿度较为相近。     

陆面特征非均一作用参数化及其对区域气候影响的数值模拟试验

本文首先改进了陆地下垫面特征非均一性的次网格尺度参数化方法，然后利用三维地气耦合的区域气候模式，设计一系列值试验，研究了下垫面特征改变对区域气候环境变化的影响，主要分析了陆地表面特征变化对我国苏南附近地区夏季温度化的影响，结果表明采用地下垫面特征非均一作用的次网格尺度参数化方法对于改进数值模拟结果的质量有一定效果。     

对流参数化与微物理过程的耦合及其对台风预报的影响研究

在SAS（Relaxed Arakawa-schubert Scheme）对流参数化方案中引入对流云和层状云的相互耦合机制,并通过一个台风个例对改进前后两种方案的预报效果进行了比较。试验结果表明：对于台风这种对流云和层状云相互作用非常强烈的天气系统,在对流参数化方案中引入对流云和层状云的耦合机制可以有效地提高模式对台风路径的预报水平,但是对于台风强度的预报效果不明显。考虑对流参数化和微物理过程耦合后模式的参数化降水变弱而格点降水增强,与NCEP再分析资料的对比发现,改进方案对于台风外围的大尺度温度场和湿度场的预报会有所改进,但仍然存在偏干偏冷的现象。对雨和雪的不同处理方式、不同云底条件以及是否考虑雨雪的卷入抬升三个方面进行了敏感性试验,发现72 h内模式预报结果对这些因素的差异不是很敏感。从多个个例的统计结果来看,新方案对台风路径预报的改进效果是比较稳定的。     

修正的质量通量积云对流方案及其模拟试验研究 Ⅱ:三种积云方案的积云对流活动及MFS方案相关参数的敏感性试验

作者在“修正的质量通量积云对流方案及其模拟试验研究I方案介绍及对1991年洪涝过程的模拟”论文中提出的质量通量方案成功地植入区域气候模式RegCM2的基础上，对比分析质量通量方案MFS，Kuo方案和Grell方案对积云对流活动的模拟，结果表明质量通量方案较好地模拟了积云对流活动过程。针对质量通量方案中的一些参数，如云水向雨水的转换率、混合卷入率、混合卷出率和下沉气流的强度等进行了一系列的敏感性试验，试验结果表明积云对流活动对这些参数比较敏感，因此提高这些参数的准确性是改进积云对流参数化方案的重要内容之一。     

MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART II:CUMULUS CONVECTION ACTIVITIES SIMULATED FROM THREE SCHEMES AND SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS BY USE OF MASS FLUX SCHEME

By comparison of simulated cumulus convection processes in RegCM2,using the Kuo scheme,the Grell scheme and the mass flux scheme (MFS),it is found that the MFS can simulate thecumulus heating and moistening very well.A series of sensitivity tests show that the parametersfor specifying the conversion coefficient from cloud droplets to raindrops,the turbulententrainment and detrainment rates in updrafts anddowndrafts,and the intensity of thedowndraftshave different degrees of influence upon the cumulus convection.Therefore.it is quite importantfor cumulus parameterization scheme to define these parameters as accurately as possible.     

MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PARTⅡ:CUMULUS CONVECTION ACTIVITIES SIMULATED FROM THREE SCHEMES AND SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS BY USE OF MASS FLUX SCHEME*

By comparison of simulated cumulus convection processes in RegCM2,using the Kuo scheme,the Grell scheme and the mass flux scheme (MFS),it is found that the MFS can simulate the cumulus heating and moistening very well.A series of sensitivity tests show that the parameters for specifying the conversion coefficient from cloud droplets to raindrops,the turbulent entrainment and detrainment rates in updrafts anddowndrafts,and the intensity of the downdrafts have different degrees of influence upon the cumulus convection.Therefore.it is quite important for cumulus parameterization scheme to define these parameters as accurately as possible.     

GRAPES区域集合预报系统模式不确定性的随机扰动技术研究

为进一步描述GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)区域集合预报系统(GRAPES Me—soscale Ensemble Prediction System,GRAPES—MEPS)中GRAPES—Meso模式的不确定性特征,本研究在GRAPES—MEPS系统中引人了模式物理参数化倾向随机扰动方案(Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies,SPPT),随机扰动型的产生是基于-阶马尔科夫链,其具有时间相关性特征,并服从正态分布,另外经过谱展开随机场具有空间结构特征,在水平结构上较平滑和连续。本文开展了基于SPPT方案的GRAPES—MEPS集合预报试验,针对SPPT方案中随机场的扰动幅度和时间相关尺度参数开展了一系列敏感性试验,并对试验结果进行了较全面的集合预报客观检验,此外,针对一次强降水过程,分析了SPPT方案对降水预报的影响。试验结果表明,引入SPPT方案能在一定程度上提高GRAPES—MEPS系统的预报技巧,降低系统的漏报率;且能显著改进预报后期大雨量级降水的预报技巧。通过敏感性试验发现,对于GRAPES—MEPS系统,SPPT方案的效果与随机扰动场幅度的范围,及扰动场的时间相关尺度选择相关,需经过敏感性试验确定出较适合的参数。     

谱模式T63L9正规模初值化方案及试验

推导了全球谱模式T63L9的正规模,对求得的垂直和水平正规模做了分析,与其他文献进行了比较.在此基础上,为其资料四维同化系统研制了一套合适的绝热非线性正规模初值化方案,并进行了一系列试验.分析表明:方案的研制是成功的,它有效地消除了模式早期积分中虚假的高频振荡,明显改进了短期预报的效果;初值化不仅对随后的一次预报有明显的改进,而且通过同化循环,提高了整个资料同化和预报的质量.