ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURE EVOLUTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

Fifty-eight extratropical transition (ET) cases in the years 2000-2008, including 2,021 observations (at 6-hour intervals), over the western North Pacific are analyzed using the cyclone phase space (CPS) method, in an effort to get the characteristics of the structure evolution and environmental conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs) during ET over this area. Cluster analysis of the CPS dataset shows that strong TCs are more likely to undergo ET. ET begins with the increment of thermal asymmetry in TCs, along with the generation and intensification of an upper-level cold core, and ends with the occurrence of a lower-level cold core. ET lasts an average duration of about 28 hours. Dynamic composite analysis of the environmental field of different clusters shows that, in general, when TCs move northward, they are gradually embedded in the westerlies and gradually transform into extratropical cyclones under the influence of the mid- and higher-latitude baroclinic systems. As for those TCs which complete ET, there is always much greater potential vorticity gradient in the northwest of them and obvious water vapor transport channels in the environment.     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE DIFFERENT FEATURES OF TC EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER LAND AND OCEAN

The extratropical transitions(ETs)of tropical cyclones(TCs)over China and the ocean east to 150°E are investigated by the use of best-track data and JRA-25 reanalysis spanning 1979-2008.The ET events occurring north of 25°N and in the warm season(from May to October)are extracted from the reanalysis to emphasize the interaction between TC and midlatitude circulation.Statistical analysis shows that 18.5%of the warm-season TCs go through land ETs north of 25°N in the western North Pacific.And 20.5%of the ET events occur over the ocean east of 150°E.Most(62.2%)ET TCs over China gradually die out after ET,but more(70.7%)ocean ET cases have post-ET reintensification.The evolutions in cyclone phase space and the composite fields for land and ocean ETs,as well as the ET cases with and without post-ET reintensification,are further analyzed.It is found that most TCs with ET over China and those without post-ET reintensification evolve along the typical ET phase path as follows:emergence of thermal asymmetry→losing upper-level warm core→losing lower-level cold core→evolving as extratropical cyclone.The TCs undergoing ETs over ocean and those with post-ET reintensification form a high-level cold core before the ET onset.The TCs with land ET have long distance between the landing TC and a high-level trough.That makes the TC maintain more tropical features and isolates the TC flow from the upstream and downstream jets of the midlatitude trough.The structure of circulation leads to weak development of baroclinicity in land ET.On the contrary,shorter distance between ocean TC and high-level trough makes the high-level trough absorb the TC absolutely.Under that baroclinicity-favorable environment,strong cold advection makes the TC lose its high-level warm core before ET onset.The composite fields confirm that the TC with ocean ET has stronger baroclinic features.Generally,the TC at land ET onset is located to the south of the ridge of the subtropical high,which tends to prevent the TCs from interacting with midlatitude circulation.But for the ocean ET,the situation is just the opposite.Similar analyses are also carried out for the TCs with and without post-ET reintensification over both land and ocean east of 150°E.The results further prove that the TC with stronger baroclinic characteristics,especially in the circumstance favorable to its interaction with high-level midlatitude systems,has more opportunity to reintensify as an extratropical cyclone after ET.     

A CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

Based on best-track data and JRA-25 reanalysis, a climatology of western North Pacific extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclone (TC) is presented in this paper. It was found that 35% (318 out of 912) of all TCs underwent ET during 1979–2008. The warm-season (June through September) ETs account for 64% of all ET events with the most occurrence in September. The area 120°E–150°E and 20°N–40°N is the most favorable region for ET onsets in western North Pacific. The TCs experience ET at latitudes 30°N–40°N and have the greatest intensity in contrast to other latitude bands. The distribution of ET onset locations shows obviously meridional migration in different seasons. A cyclone phase space (CPS) method was used to analyze the TC evolution during ET. Except for some cases of abnormal ET at relatively high latitudes, typical phase evolution paths—along which TC firstly showed thermal asymmetry and an upper-level cold core and then lost its low-level warm core—can be used to describe the main features of ET processes in western North Pacific. Some seasonal variations of ET evolution paths in CPS were also found at low latitudes south of 15°N, which suggests different ET onset mechanisms there. Further composite analysis concluded that warm-season ETs have generally two types of evolutions, but only one type in cold season (October through next May). The first type of warm-season ETs has less baroclinicity due to long distance between the TC and upper-level mid-latitude system. However, significant interactions between a mid-latitude upper -level trough and TC, of either approaching or being absorbed into the trough, and TC’s relations with downstream and upstream upper-level jets, are the fingerprints for both a second type of warm-season ETs and almost all the cold-season ETs. For each type of ETs, detailed structural characteristics as well as precipitation distribution are illustrated by latitude.     

Impact of the Subtropical High on the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Recent publications have investigated the interactions between the extratropical transitions （ETs） of tropical cyclones （TCs） and midlatitude circulations; however, studies of ET events have rarely considered the relationship between the storm and the nearby subtropical high. The TC best-track data provided by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center-Tokyo Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorology Agency are used in conjunction with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to discuss the potential effects of the subtropical high on ETs over the western North Pacific basin. When the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） is weakened and withdrawn toward the east, more TCs follow recurving paths and the midlatitude trough activity is intensified. These changes lead to enhanced ET activity. By contrast, when the WPSH strengthens and extends westward, the number of TCs that follow direct westward paths increases and the midlatitude trough is relatively inactive. These conditions lead to reduced occurrences of ET cases. Abnormal activity of the WPSH should be considered as an important factor in determining ET activity.     

1957-2004年影响我国的强热带气旋频数和强度变化

Based on tropical cyclone track dataset in the western North Pacific from China Meteorological Administration(CMA),variations in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the western North Pacific,affecting-China TCs(ACTCs)and landfall TCs(LTCs)achieving a typhoon intensity during 1957-2004 were studied.Frequencies of strong tropical cyclones showed significant decreasing trends from 1957 to 2004 and the linear trend was much greater when the intensity was stronger.There was no linear trend in the portion of strong tropical cyclones achieving a typhoon(TY)intensity,while those reaching a strong typhoon(STY)and a super typhoon(SuperTY)intensity showed decreasing trends during 1957-2004.The maximum intensities of TCs,ACTCs and LTCs all decreased during the period of 1957-2004.The mean intensities of TCs and ACTCs displayed decreasing trends and the mean intensity of LTCs achieving a TY intensity also showed a decreasing trend.     

Variations in Frequency and Intensity of Strong Tropical Cyclones Affecting China During

 Based on tropical cyclone track dataset in the western North Pacific from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), variations in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific, affecting-China TCs (ACTCs) and landfall TCs (LTCs) achieving a typhoon intensity during 1957-2004 were studied. Frequencies of strong tropical cyclones showed significant decreasing trends from 1957 to 2004 and the linear trend was much greater when the intensity was stronger. There was no linear trend in the portion of strong tropical cyclones achieving a typhoon (TY) intensity, while those reaching a strong typhoon (STY) and a super typhoon (SuperTY) intensity showed decreasing trends during 1957-2004. The maximum intensities of TCs, ACTCs and LTCs all decreased during the period of 1957-2004. The mean intensities of TCs and ACTCs displayed decreasing trends and the mean intensity of LTCs achieving a TY intensity also showed a decreasing trend.     

2019年夏季海洋天气评述

2019年夏季（6—8月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,中高纬度西风带呈4波型分布,欧亚大陆为“两槽一脊”的环流型。6月,我国北方海域多入海气旋和海雾,7—8月副热带高压位置较常年偏东、偏南,不利于热带气旋生成。我国近海有10次8级以上大风过程,其中热带气旋过程大风有6次,2次由入海温带气旋造成,另外2次过程主要由雷暴大风引起;出现了14次明显的海雾过程,其中6月出现7次,7月出现4次,8月出现3次;发生13次2 m以上的大浪过程,6月出现4次,7月出现5次,8月出现4次。西北太平洋和南海共有10个热带气旋命名,比常年平均偏少1个;其他各大洋共有14个命名热带气旋生成,分别为：北大西洋4个、东太平洋9个、北印度洋1个。     

1957-2004年影响我国的强热带气旋频数和强度变化

以中国气象局西北太平洋热带气旋资料为基础,分析1957-2004年影响我国并达到台风强度以上的三类热带气旋,即生成热带气旋、影响热带气旋和登陆热带气旋的频数和强度的变化。结果表明：强热带气旋频数在1957-2004年间呈显著减少趋势,强度越强,其减少趋势越明显。近50 a台风以上强度的强热带气旋频次占总频次的比例没有明显的增加或减少趋势,强台风和超强台风比例呈减少趋势。1957-2004年热带气旋的最大强度呈线性减弱趋势,生成热带气旋和影响热带气旋的平均强度亦呈减弱趋势,登陆台风的平均强度也呈减弱趋势。     

影响登陆我国不同区域热带气旋活动的大尺度环流定量分析

利用日本的JRA－25 (Japanese 25－year Reanalysis) 逐日再分析风场资料以及美国联合台风预报中心的热带气旋(TC)数据, 以厦门为分界点, 分别对影响登陆我国厦门以北和厦门以南TC的西北太平洋副热带高压和季风槽作了相关的环流分析。通过定义副热带高压的西伸脊点和南北脊线指数, 以及季风槽的倾斜和强度指数, 定量研究它们与登陆我国不同区域TC的关系。研究结果表明, 所定义的指数对西北太平洋地区TC的生成位置、能量及登陆我国的路径有很好的指示作用。西北太平洋副高位置东西以及南北位置的偏移对登陆我国厦门以北TC的路径有很大影响; 西北太平洋季风槽线斜率对登陆我国厦门以南TC的路径有一定影响, 且倾斜程度与西北太平洋地区TC平均生成地的南北向偏移有密切的关系, 并且, 西北太平洋季风槽线的平均涡度对于西北太平洋地区TC生成时的能量也有很大影响。     

COMPARISONS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPERIENCING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASED ON DIFFERENT DATASETS

The differences in the climatology of extratropical transition(ET) of western North Pacific tropical cyclones(TCs) were investigated in this study using the TCs best-track datasets of China Meteorological Administration(CMA),Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC). The results show that the ET identification, ET completion time, and post-ET duration reported in the JTWC dataset are greatly different from those in CMA and JMA datasets during 2004-2010. However, the key differences between the CMA and JMA datasets from 1951 to 2010 are the ET identification and the post-ET duration, because of inconsistent objective ET criteria used in the centers. Further analysis indicates that annual ET percentage of CMA was lower than that of JMA, and exhibited an interannual decreasing trend, while that of JMA was an unchanged trend. The western North Pacific ET events occurred mainly during the period June to November. The latitude of ET occurrence shifted northward from February to August,followed by a southward shift. Most of ET events were observed between 35°N and 45°N. From a regional perspective,TCs tended to undergo ET in Japan and the ocean east to it. It is found that TCs which experienced the ET process at higher latitudes were generally more intense at the ET completion time. TCs completing the ET overland or offshore were weaker than those finishing the ET over the ocean. Most of the TCs weakened 24 h before the completion of ET.In contrast, 21%(27%) of the TCs showed an intensification process based on the CMA(JMA) dataset during the post-ET period. The results presented in this study indicate that consistent ET determination criteria are needed to reduce the uncertainty involved in ET identification among the centers.     

西北太平洋变性台风时空分布特征

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的1961-2000年共40 a热带气旋年鉴资料,对发生在西北太平洋上的变性台风的时空分布特征进行了诊断分析和研究.研究发现,发生于西北太平洋上的变性台风的年频数呈现出明显的年代际变化特征,主要特征是20世纪60年代偏多,70至80年代显著减少,90年代初又略有回升,至90年代下半期每年发生变性的台风个数均极少;年际变化趋势呈现出逐年减少的特征,与西北太平洋上生成的总台风频数的变化趋势一致;西北太平洋上的变性台风多发生于夏、秋两季,特别集中于夏季与秋季的转换时期(变性比例分别达到40%及46%);秋季较夏季台风发生变性的位置整体偏东;台风变性前移动路径主要集中于朝鲜半岛以南及日本海附近,变性后路径多北上偏东;西北太平洋各月变性台风在变性后6小时内平均强度均减弱,变性后12小时内平均强度仍继续减弱,变性后强度加强的气旋的最低平均气压仅在6、7月份较变性前最明显.进一步通过对NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料的500 hPa高度场的EOF分析,发现夏、秋两季,纬向环流指数与台风变性频数呈显著负相关;中高纬度500hPa距平高度场在夏半年为正距平区,对应着高压,宜于冷空气入侵向高纬地区北上的台风,促进台风发生变性.     

Chaba (0417) 台风变性前后热力结构特征

运用美国NOAA-15极轨气象卫星高分辨率的AMSU探测资料, 结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和GMS-5气象卫星红外云顶亮温(TBB)资料, 对2004年Chaba(0417)台风(TC)变性前后的热力结构特征进行分析。发现变性前TC暖核结构呈对称分布, 在高空存在一强暖心; 变性后原TC对称暖心结构消失, 存在于温带气旋上空的相对暖区呈现出倾斜的非对称分布, 在高、低层各形成一弱的暖区中心, 锋面的斜压特性显著。通过热力结构对比, 进一步揭示出TC在向高纬度方向移动时, 与中纬度系统相互作用发生变性, 实质上是两个相继过程, 即热带气旋的消亡和温带气旋的生成发展。TC西侧高空干冷空气的入侵下沉, 破坏了其发展所需的水汽条件, 造成TC对称暖核结构的削弱和损毁。与此同时, 在TC残留区域, 由于空气较暖且存在气旋式环流, 暖空气在东侧呈气旋式上升, 与西侧高空入侵下沉的干冷空气形成偶极, TC暖气团与冷空气相交发展形成斜压的结果, 则为温带气旋的生成和发展创造了有利条件。     

2020年夏季海洋天气评述

2020年夏季（6—8月）,北半球极涡呈现明显的单极型分布,极涡主体位于北极圈内,中心偏向东半球,中高纬环流呈现4波型分布。6—7月,西太平洋副热带高压较常年平均偏强,且位置偏西偏南,不利于热带气旋活动。2020年夏季共有8个热带气旋在西北太平洋和南海生成,其中7月没有热带气旋生成。除西北太平洋和南海之外,其他热带洋面另有20个热带气旋生成,其中北大西洋11个,东太平洋8个,北印度洋1个。受偏南暖湿气流的影响,我国北方海域多海雾天气。同时受入海气旋活动影响,多海上大风过程。夏季近海海域共出现了7次比较明显的海雾过程,其中6月3次,7月1次,8月3次。大风过程出现了10次, 2次由热带气旋影响,7次与入海气旋活动有关。发生2 m以上的大浪过程12次,6—8月分别出现了4次、5次和3次。     

热带大气准双周振荡对西北太平洋地区热带气旋路径的影响

利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,简称NO-An）的逐日对外长波辐射（outgoing longwave radiation,简称OLR）场资料,欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Center for Medium—Range Weather Forecasting,简称ECMWF）逐日风场（850hPa）资料,以及美国联合台风预警中心（Joint Typhoon Warning Center,简称JTWC）的热带气旋（tropicalcy—clone,简称TC）数据,参考Wheeler and Hendon（2004）提出的季节内振荡（Madden—Julianoscilla．tion,简称MJO）指数,通过多元EOF方法定义热带准双周振荡（quasi—biweekly oscillation,简称QBW）指数,诊断分析了西北太平洋地区QBW不同位相对于TC路径的影响。结果表明,TC主要生成在QSW对流湿位相中,集中位置随QBW向西北的传播而向西北移动。在QSW位相phasel中,南海上空盛行QBW反气旋性环流,西太副高西伸,其西南侧偏东南气流受QBW反气旋性环流东北侧气流抑制,生成在副高南侧的TC首先在副高南侧偏东气流的引导下移动至近海,在西南季风以及副高西侧偏南气流作用下顺时针北折,因此在140°E以西转折类路径的TC比例最高;而在phase3中,西太副高偏东,南海上空盛行QBW气旋性环流,西太副高西南侧气流强度受QBW气旋东北侧气流影响增强,季风槽偏东,140°E以东转折类的TC比例最高。本文还对TC个例中的QBW流场形势进行了分析,发现当QBW气旋或反气旋环流中心同TC中心一致时,热带气旋路径会发生突然的右折。     

2017年春季海洋天气评述

2017年春季（3—5月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈单极型分布,主体位于北冰洋上空,中高纬西风带呈5波型分布。3月,地面冷高压偏强,冷空气活动频繁。4月,环流由纬向型向经向型逐渐调整,冷空气势力减弱。5月,东北气旋明显加强,冷暖势力相当,入海气旋增多。春季,我国近海海域主要有16次8级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程有7次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程有1次,入海温带气旋过程有4次,东北冷涡影响大风过程有3次,强对流导致雷暴大风过程1次;且有8次明显的浪高在2 m以上的大浪过程。春季共有6次比较明显的海雾过程,分别为3月1次、4月2次、5月3次。西北太平洋和南海共生成1个台风“梅花”和1个热带低压,其他各大洋共有热带气旋15个,分别为大西洋1个、东太平洋1个、南太平洋5个、南印度洋6个、北印度洋2个。     

西北太平洋热带气旋变性阶段强度变化的比较研究

选取西北太平洋上两个生命史中发生变性的热带气旋Yagi和Francisco,前者变性后有一个24小时的再增强过程,而后者则继续减弱直至消亡。利用日本气象厅提供的热带气旋资料和美国环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的FNL全球分析资料,对比分析两个TC在变性阶段的形势场,发现两者在高低层的环境场均具有明显的差异:Yagi在变性阶段其高空槽较强且在低层有一个与中纬度原先存在的温带气旋合并的过程;而Francisco在变性阶段其高空槽较弱,且变性后自行消亡。另外探讨了导致Yagi变性增强的原因,结果表明:(1)Yagi变性阶段与高空槽前的急流相互作用时,高空急流入口区左侧和出口区右侧的次级环流将产生高空辐散低空辐合的趋势,有利于低层TC低压的发展。同时,当Yagi在穿越急流的过程当中,垂直风切变的增加将导致斜压不稳定增强,低层锋区强烈发展,锋区内的斜压能量可能向TC动能转化,从而使得Yagi发展增强;(2)高空槽所对应的高层湿位涡下传可使得低层正涡度增长,从而在低层诱生出气旋性环流,有利于Yagi变性后重新发展;(3)Yagi与中纬度原先存在的温带气旋发生合并,温带气旋所带来的较高纬度冷空气的入侵增强了低层的水平温度梯度,使得低层锋区强烈发展,从Yagi以一个锋面气旋的形式而再度发展,促使其变性后进一步增强。而这些特征都是Francisco所不具备的。     

热带气旋变性过程客观判别方法在“海马”变性过程中的应用

介绍了一种判别热带气旋变性过程的客观方法.此客观方法使用三个判别参数: 对流层低层热力非对称参数B、高低层的热成风、对变性过程进行诊断判别.此方法使用格点的数值预报产品,计算简单、使用方便,便于业务化.同时针对2004年影响我国的0421号热带风暴"海马",使用NCEP再分析资料对其变性过程进行了分析验证,结果表明:此客观方法所定义的三个判别参数B、、在"海马"的变性过程中有很好的指示作用.     

RESEARCH ON THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

In this paper, we mainly summarize and review the progresses in recent climatological studies (by CMSR, IAP/CAS and some associated domestic and international institutions) on the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of monsoon troughs and their impacts on tropical cyclones and typhoons (TCs) geneses over the western North Pacific Ocean. The climatological characteristics of monsoon troughs and four types of circulation patterns favorable to TCs genesis over the western North Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn are given in this paper. It is also shown in this paper that the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean has obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities. Especially, it is revealed in this paper that the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean influence the TCs genesis not only through the impact on distributions of the vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, the water vapor in the mid- and lower troposphere and the vertical shear of wind fields between the upper and lower troposphere over the western North Pacific Ocean, but also through the dynamical effects of the transition between convectively coupled tropical waves and providing disturbance energy. Besides, some climatological problems associated with TCs activity over the western North Pacific Ocean that need to be studied further are also pointed out in this paper.     

Insight into the Role of Lower-Layer Vertical Wind Shear in Tropical Cyclone Intensification over the Western North Pacific

Vertical wind shear fundamentally influences changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclogenesis and evolution in the western North Pacific basin are not well understood. We present a new statistical study of all named TCs in this region during the period 2000-2006 using a second-generation partial least squares (PLS) regression technique. The results show that the lower-layer (between 850 hPa and 10 m above the sea surface) wind shear is more important than the commonly analyzed deep-layer shear (between 200 and 850 hPa) for changes in TC intensity during the TC intensification period. This relationship is particularly strong for westerly low-level shear. Downdrafts induced by the lower-layer shear bring low θ e air into the boundary layer from above, significantly reducing values of θ e in the TC inflow layer and weakening the TC. Large values of deep-layer shear over the ocean to the east of the Philippine Islands inhibit TC formation, while large values of lower-layer shear over the central and western North Pacific inhibit TC intensification. The critical value of deep-layer shear for TC formation is approximately 10 ms-1 , and the critical value of lower-layer shear for TC intensification is approximately ±1.5 ms-1 .     

黄渤海登陆热带气旋活动的统计分析

利用中国气象局整编的1949-2000年的热带气旋资料,分析了52年间在黄渤海沿岸登陆的热带气旋的年际和季节分布、强度、移向和移速、源地及变性等气候特征,揭示了此类气旋大部分强度较强并易发生陆上变性,变性后增强的气旋的雏持时间较长等事实,并发现了其变性的高频地区位于黄海北部至中朝边境。