The use of successive dynamic initialization by nudging to simulate cyclogenesis during GALE IOP 1

Summary Synoptic/diagnostic case studies have increasingly come to rely on numerical simulations started from some initial state after which the model generated fields receive no further information from observed data. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of a dynamic data assimilation technique based on nudging to create a dynamically consistent high-resolution four-dimensional data set that can be used for synoptic diagnostic studies. The nudging technique is applied in the Goddard Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (GMASS) using the 3-h radiosonde data collected during GALE IOP 1. A unique aspect of this application is nudging toward data analyses for which the areal coverage shifts with time. One of the two nudging simulations assimilates surface pressure in addition to the temperature, mixing ratio, and wind components. The nudging values are determined by linear interpolation between 3-h observation times. Assuming a linear variation of the assimilated value in time leads to estimates of the nudging coefficients which take into account the accuracy of the observations.Both nudging simulations are more accurate in terms of S hand root-mean-square error (RMSE) scores than a control sunulation without successive initialization. The nudging simulation with surface pressure is more accurate than the nudging simulation without surface pressure assimilation for this case. The simulation with surface pressure nudging captures the surface cyclogenesis and the associated strong rise-fall couplet in the 500 hPa height field. It also exhibits the strongest ageostrophic flow and exit region vertical circulation associated with a jet streak on the western side of the intensifying upper-level trough.The data sets made possible by the dynamic assimilation/ simulation cycles are dynamically consistent, have high spatial and temporal resolution and are ideally suited for diagnostic studies. Examples presented include the evolution of the ageostrophic flow associated with the exit region of an upper-level jet propagating toward the base of an intensifying trough with increasing cyclonic curvature of the flow. The nudging simulation with surface pressure provides the resolution and accuracy required to depict the rapid transformation (within a 12-h period) of the exit region ageostrophic flow from predominantly cross contour to along contour as the jet streak approaches the base of the trough.With 19 Figures     

四维数据同化在一次梅雨锋暴雨过程中的应用研究

通过2008年梅雨季内的一次暴雨过程来着重研究WRF模式中四维测站同化技术的应用情况以及不同的同化策略对模拟结果的影响,使用的同化资料包括常规高空和地面探测资料。结果表明:高空探测资料的同化能够较好地修正中α尺度系统的移动发展速度,从而有效地改进强降雨带的落区位置;湿度观测资料的同化反而降低了强降雨带的降水强度,这可能因为同化湿度观测量可能减小近饱和区域内的水汽混合比,从而导致这些区域内的潜热加热减小,对流强度变弱,降水减少;地面观测资料的同化能够对模式行星边界层进行修正,这种同化影响通常在模式最低层上表现得较为明显,向上逐渐减小,而边界层模拟质量对降水至关重要,因此地面观测资料的加入使得模拟降水更加接近于实况。区域嵌套模拟试验表明对粗网格区域进行四维分析同化处理可以有效抑制中α尺度模式误差的增长,对细网格区域进行四维测站同化处理则可以进一步抑制中β尺度模式误差增长。     

Land-Surface Heterogeneity Effects in the Planetary Boundary Layer

We investigate the cumulative added value of assimilating temperature, moisture, and wind observations in the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model MM5 and use these forecasts to analyze the relationship between surface forcing and planetary boundary-layer (PBL) depth. A data assimilation methodology focused on the surface and the PBL, previously tested in a one-dimensional version of MM5, is applied to 29 May, 6 June, and 7 June 2002 during the International $\hbox {H}_{2}\hbox {O}$ Project over the Southern Great Plains. Model-predicted PBL depth is evaluated against PBL depth diagnosed from data across 4,800 km of airborne lidar data (flight tracks 100–300 km long). The forecast with data assimilation verifies better against observations and is thus used to investigate the environmental conditions that govern PBL depth. The spatial structure in PBL depth is found to be most affected by spatial variations in surface buoyancy flux and capping inversion strength. The spatial scales of surface flux forcing reflected in the PBL depth are found through Fourier analysis and multiresolution decomposition. Correlations are ${<}0.50$ at scales of 64 km or less and increase at larger scales for 29 May and 6 June, but on 7 June low correlations are found at all scales, possibly due to greater within-PBL wind speeds, a stronger capping inversion on this day, and clouds. The results suggest a minimum scale, a function of wind speed, below which heterogeneity in surface buoyancy fluxes is not reflected directly in PBL depth.     

Improved ENSO forecasts by assimilating sea surface temperature observations into an intermediate coupled model

A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models (ICMs) using only sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984–2003 and the period 1997–2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.     

Reducing Drift and Bias of a Global Ocean Model by Frequency-Dependent Nudging

Frequency-dependent nudging is applied to a coarse resolution (nominal 1°) global ocean model to suppress its drift and bias, and the impact of the nudging on the skill of the model is assessed. The nudging is applied to temperature and salinity in frequency bands centred on 0 and 1 cycles per year. As expected, the nudging significantly reduces the biases in the long-term mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and sea level. By comparing the simulated (i) sea surface temperature with operational analyses based on observations, (ii) vertical profiles of temperature and salinity with observations made by Argo floats, and (iii) sea level with altimeter observations, it is shown that the skill of the model in simulating variability about the annual cycle is also improved. The potential benefit of applying frequency-dependent nudging to the ocean component of a coupled atmosphere–ocean model is discussed.     

Comparison of Two Air Pollution Episodes over Northeast China in Winter 2016/17 Using Ground-Based Lidar

This study analyzes and compares aerosol properties and meteorological conditions during two air pollution episodes in 19–22 (E1) and 25–26 (E2) December 2016 in Northeast China. The visibility, particulate matter (PM) mass concentration, and surface meteorological observations were examined, together with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient and volume depolarization ratio that were measured by a ground-based lidar in Shenyang of Liaoning Province, China during December 2016–January 2017. Results suggest that the low PBL height led to poor pollution dilution in E1, while the high PBL accompanied by low visibility in E2 might have been due to cross-regional and vertical air transmission. The PM mass concentration decreased as the PBL height increased in E1 while these two variables were positively correlated in E2. The enhanced winds in E2 diffused the pollutants and contributed largely to the aerosol transport. Strong temperature inversion in E1 resulted in increased PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations, and the winds in E2 favoured the southwesterly transport of aerosols from the North China Plain into the region surrounding Shenyang. The large extinction coefficient was partially attributed to the local pollution under the low PBL with high ground-surface PM mass concentrations in E1, whereas the cross-regional transport of aerosols within a high PBL and the low PM mass concentration near the ground in E2 were associated with severe aerosol extinction at high altitudes. These results may facilitate better understanding of the vertical distribution of aerosol properties during winter pollution events in Northeast China.     

Application of Radar Reflectivity Factor in Initializing Cloud-Resolving Mesoscale Model. Part Ⅱ： Numerical Simulation Experiments

Microphysics elements and vertical velocity retrieved were incorporated using the nudging method into the initial data assimilation of GRAPES （Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） model. Simulation experiments indicated that nudging technique was effective in forcing the model forecast gradually consistent to the observations, yielding the thermodynamically and dynamically balanced analysis field. As viewed from the simulation results, water vapor is vital to precipitation, and it is a governing factor for the amount and duration of precipitation. The initial cloud water, rain water, and vertical velocity determine the strength distribution of convection and precipitation at the beginning time of forecast; the horizontal wind field steers the motion of the mesoscale weather system embedded in and impacts the position of precipitation zone to a large extent. The simulation experiments show that the influence of the initial retrieval data on prediction weakens with the increase of forecast time, and within the first hour of forecast, the retrieval data have an important impact on the evolution of the weather system, but its influence becomes trivial after the first three hours. Changing the nudging coefficient and the integral time-spacing of numerical model will bring some influences to the results. Herein only one radar reflectivity was used, the radar observations did not cover the whole model domain, and some empirical parameters were used in the retrieval method, therefore some differences still lie between simulation and observation to a certain extent, and further studies on several aspects are expected.     

Application of Radar Reflectivity Factor in Initializing Cloud-Resolving Mesoscale Model. Part Ⅱ: Numerical Simulation Experiments

Microphysics elements and vertical velocity retrieved were incorporated using the nudging method into the initial data assimilation of GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) model.Simulation experiments indicated that nudging technique was effective in forcing the model forecast gradually consistent to the observations, yielding the thermodynamically and dynamically balanced analysis field. As viewed from the simulation results, water vapor is vital to precipitation, and it is a governing factor for the amount and duration of precipitation. The initial cloud water, rain water, and vertical velocity determine the strength distribution of convection and precipitation at the beginning time of forecast; the horizontal wind field steers the motion of the mesoscale weather system embedded in and impacts the position of precipitation zone to a large extent. The simulation experiments show that the influence of the initial retrieval data on prediction weakens with the increase of forecast time, and within the first hour of forecast, the retrieval data have an important impact on the evolution of the weather system, but its influence becomes trivial after the first three hours. Changing the nudging coefficient and the integral time-spacing of numerical model will bring some influences to the results. Herein only one radar reflectivity was used, the radar observations did not cover the whole model domain, and some empirical parameters were used in the retrieval method, therefore some differences still lie between simulation and observation to a certain extent, and further studies on several aspects are expected.     

CMA-MESO三维变分同化系统2 m相对湿度资料同化研究

为了提高CMA-MESO （China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale model）（原GRAPES）三维变分同化系统中2 m相对湿度资料的应用效果,改善模式中相对湿度的分析和降水预报效果,分析了2015年6—8月T639（T639L60全球中期数值预报系统,0.28125°×0.28125°）分析场低层相对湿度和2 m相对湿度之差与表征稳定度的理查森数（Ri）的关系,发现二者有很好的相关,Ri＜0时,模式低层相对湿度与2 m相对湿度的差异较小,基本在同化观测误差范围内。依据该统计结果,对CMA-MESO同化系统中2 m相对湿度同化方案进行优化,Ri＜0时,将观测站地形低于模式地形的2 m相对湿度观测由观测站高度改为模式最低层高度进行同化,形成新的2 m相对湿度同化方案,旨在解决2 m相对湿度资料同化时模式地形高度与观测站高度不同的影响。2018年7月CMA-MESO三维变分同化系统（3DVar）个例和连续试验结果显示:新的2 m相对湿度同化方案同化分析资料数量明显增加,且08时多于20时（北京时）,新增观测点新息向量（背景减观测）与周围原有观测新息向量保持基本一致,分析残差偏差和均方根误差减小,降水预报效果明显改善。新2 m相对湿度同化方案通过提高观测站低于模式地形高度的观测资料合理应用,从而改善了3 km模式系统同化分析和预报效果。      

EXPERIMENTS ON ASSIMILATION OF INITIAL VALUES IN NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A WARM-SECTOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA

In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation of conventional sounding and surface data, testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of radar-derived radial wind, are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that occurred over South China, by using the GRAPES_MESO model. The results show that (1) assimilating conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast, and (3) the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude. These results serve as significant technical reference for the study on short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the future.     

GRAPES地面风场同化方案研究

随着预报准确度要求以及同化分析循环周期的缩短,具有高时空分辨率的地面观测资料在同化系统中也越来越受到重视,而且一个好的资料同化系统应该能够给出模式近地面动力、热力和湿度状况的合理分析。利用GRAPES区域同化预报系统(GRAPES——Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System),在近地层Monin_Obukhov相似理论的基础上,考虑了边界层的动力和湿热力约束,建立新的地面风场观测算子。将此新方案与目前GRAPES系统使用的三次样条插值的地面同化方案进行高度场预报试验、统计试验以及降水预报的TS评分比较,结果表明,加入新方案地面风场资料同化后,预报效果和对降水的预报能力都比旧方案有所提高。     

The wind in the baroclinic boundary layer with three sublayers incorporating the weak non-linear effect

In considering the weak non-linear effect, and using the small parameter expansion method, the analyt-ical expressions of the wind distribution within PBL (planetary boundary layer) and the vertical velocity at the top of the PBL are obtained when the PBL is divided into three layers and different eddy transfer coefficients K are adopted for the three layers. The conditions of barotropy and neutrality for the PBL are extended to that of baroclinity and non-neutral stratification. An example of a steady circular vortex is used to display the characteristics of the horizontal wind within the PBL and the vertical velocity at the top of the PBL. Some new results have been obtained, indicating that the magnitude of the speed in the lower height calculated by the present model is larger than that by the model in which k is a constant within the whole boundary layer, for example, in the classical Ekman boundary layer model and the model by Wu (1984). The angle between the wind at the top of the PBL and the wind near the surface calculated by the present model is less than that calculated by the single K model. These results are in agreement with the observations.     

边界层方案对华北低层O3垂直分布模拟的影响

利用WRF-Chem模式,采用3种边界层参数化方案 (YSU, MYJ和ACM2),针对1个晴空、静稳日 (2013年8月26日20:00—27日20:00(北京时)) 进行模拟,着重分析不同边界层参数化方案对夜间残留层形成及日出前后O₃浓度垂直分布形式的模拟效果,并与固城站地面及垂直同步观测资料进行对比。结果表明:3种边界层参数化方案均能够模拟出温度及风速的区域分布形式以及风温垂直结构的变化特征;相比之下,MYJ方案模拟的夜间边界层高度较YSU方案和ACM2方案明显偏高,该对比结果可能是导致近地面污染物浓度模拟差异的重要原因;在夜间稳定层结至日出后稳定状态打破的边界层结构演变过程中,采用YSU方案和ACM2方案模拟的温度和风速垂直扩线形式与观测结果更为接近;同样采用非局地闭合的YSU方案和同时考虑局地和非局地闭合的ACM2方案,对于边界层高度内O₃浓度垂直分布形式的模拟效果具有明显优势。     

Analysis of dust events in 2008 and 2009 using the lidar network, surface observations and the CFORS model

The Asian dust events in 2008 (May 24–June 4 in 2008) and in 2009 (March 12–25, October 13–26, and December 15–28 in 2009) were analyzed with the lidar network observations, surface observations in China, Korea, Japan, and Mongolia, and with the chemical transport model CFORS. Transport of Asian dust and mixing of dust with air pollution aerosols were studied. The event of May 24 to June 4 in 2008 was a significant event unusually late in the spring dust season. The dust event of March 12–25, 2009 was an interesting example of elevated dust layer, and transport of dust from the elevated dust layer to the ground by the boundary layer activity was observed with the lidars and surface observations in Japan. The concentration of air pollution aerosols was relatively high during the dust event, and the results suggest that vertical structure as well as transport path is important for the mixing of dust and air pollution aerosols. The dust events in October and December 2009 were examples of dust events in autumn and winter. The online mode CFORS reproduced the observation data generally well, except for the event of May 24 to June 4 in 2008. The results of the fourdimensional variational assimilation of the lidar network data reproduced the dust concentration in Korea and Japan reasonably in that event.     

Nudging方法对中国西北强降水过程的模拟试验研究

通过在WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式中运用松弛逼近方法(Nudging)同化NCEP-FNL资料,对中国西北地区夏季3次对流降水过程进行了模拟试验,检验了模式运用谱逼近(Spectral Nudging,SN)和格点逼近(Grid Nudging,GN)方案后对研究区域内降水过程的模拟性能。结果表明:SN和GN试验相对于控制试验,模拟的降水结果更接近于站点观测。在降水落区和量级的模拟效果上都有显著提高,且SN试验所得结果优于GN试验。通过分析两个同化试验在降水时段的基本要素场(湿度、温度和风速)变化,在近地面层,GN试验模拟的风速和温度较SN试验更接近观测;但700 hPa上,SN试验中风速、风向、温度、湿度的增量场变化及分布同降水的模拟结果存在较好的对应关系。最后,从物理诊断量—水汽通量散度的空间垂直变化来看,SN试验中600 hPa和700 hPa的水汽通量散度的正负分布有效调节降水的空间分布,更逼近观测。因此700 hPa的物理量场变量增量是降水模拟效果改善的主要原因之一。     

BJ-RUC系统对北京夏季边界层的预报性能评估

以北京市观象台2010年8月、2011年8月每日3次 (08:00, 14:00, 20:00,北京时,下同) L波段探空秒间隔数据为实况,对BJ-RUC系统 (rapid updated cycle system for the Beijing area) 分析和预报边界层性能进行了初步评估。结果表明:BJ-RUC系统对北京地区夏季白天边界层的细致特征具有较好的预报能力,但也存在明显的系统性误差。08:00边界层偏冷; 14:00和20:00 1 km以下的边界层则显著偏暖, 边界层内明显偏湿。整体上模式对边界层内温度、湿度的预报误差均高于自由大气。该系统对北京地区边界层内早晨 (08:00) 从夜间山风向白天谷风环流过渡、午后 (14:00) 到日落后 (20:00)1500 m以下盛行西南偏南气流的日变化特征具有较强的预报能力。系统预报的14:00边界层顶高度与评估时段内实际对流边界层高度的变化趋势一致。但预报的对流边界层顶偏高,这与BJ-RUC系统采用YSU边界层参数化方案的垂直混合更强有关。     

Optimal nudging strategies in regional climate modelling: investigation in a Big-Brother experiment over the European and Mediterranean regions

The objective of this work is to gain a general insight into the key mechanisms involved in the impact of nudging on the large scales and the small scales of a regional climate simulation. A “Big Brother experiment” (BBE) approach is used where a “reference atmosphere” is known, unlike when regional climate models are used in practice. The main focus is on the sensitivity to nudging time, but the BBE approach allows to go beyond a pure sensitivity study by providing a reference which model outputs try to approach, defining an optimal nudging time. Elaborating upon previous idealized studies, this work introduces key novel points. The BBE approach to optimal nudging is used with a realistic model, here the weather research and forecasting model over the European and Mediterranean regions. A winter simulation (1 December 1989–28 February 1990) and a summer simulation (1 June 1999–31 August 1999) with a 50 km horizontal mesh grid have been performed with initial and boundary conditions provided by the ERA-interim reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast to produce the “reference atmosphere”. The impacts of spectral and indiscriminate nudging are compared all others things being equal and as a function of nudging time. The impact of other numerical parameters, specifically the domain size and update frequency of the large-scale driving fields, on the sensitivity of the optimal nudging time is investigated. The nudged simulations are also compared to non-nudged simulations. Similarity between the reference and the simulations is evaluated for the surface temperature, surface wind and for rainfall, key variables for climate variability analysis and impact studies. These variables are located in the planetary boundary layer, which is not subject to nudging. Regarding the determination of a possible optimal nudging time, the conclusion is not the same for indiscriminate nudging (IN) and spectral nudging and depends on the update frequency of the driving large-scale fields τ _a . For IN, the optimal nudging time is around τ = 3 h for almost all cases. For spectral nudging, the best results are for the smallest value of τ used for the simulations (τ = 1 h) for frequent update of the driving large-scale fields (3 and 6 h). The optimal nudging time is 3 for 12 h interval between two consecutive driving large-scale fields due to time sampling errors. In terms of resemblance to the reference fields, the differences between the simulations performed with IN and spectral nudging are small. A possible reason for this very similar performance is that nudging is active only above the planetary boundary layer where small-scale features are less energetic. As expected from previous studies, the impact of nudging is weaker for a smaller domain size. However the optimal nudging time itself is not sensitive to domain size. The proposed strategy ensures a dynamical consistency between the driving field and the simulated small-scale field but it does not ensure the best “observed” fine scale field because of the possible impact of incorrect driving large-scale field. This type of downscaling provides an upper bound on the skill possible for recent historical past and twenty-first century projections. The optimal nudging strategy with respect to dynamic downscaling could add skill whenever the parent global model has some level of skill.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地大气边界层参数化方案的模拟评估

沙尘起沙、沉降、传输均受到沙漠地区大气边界层条件的制约。沙漠地区观测资料匮乏,限制大气边界层模拟效果的检验和评估。利用WRFV3.7.1中尺度数值模式中5种边界层参数化方案(ACM2、BL、MYJ、MYNN2.5、YSU),模拟2014年4月塔克拉玛干沙漠大气边界层特征,并与塔中80 m塔及风廓线雷达晴朗天气下的观测资料对比分析。结果表明:5种方案均能模拟出近地面气温及地表温度,边界层高度,感热、潜热、地表热通量的变化趋势,但未能模拟出边界层风速的日变化趋势,温风湿廓线能较好的反映晴日沙漠地区边界层结构的变化特征,但未模拟出风速随高度变化趋势。沙漠地区下垫面干燥,热容量低,晴天极易形成对流不稳定边界层,非局地湍流参数化方案,ACM2方案是沙漠地区大气边界层模拟较为合理的选择。     

Ensemble Square Root Filter Assimilation of Near-Surface Soil Moisture and Reference-Level Observations into a Coupled Land Surface-Boundary Layer Model

The potential for using the ensemble square root filter data assimilation technique to estimate soil moisture profiles, surface heat fluxes, and the state of the planetary boundary layer （PBL） is explored. An observing system simulation experiment is designed to mimic the assimilation of near-surface soil moisture observations （θo ） and in-situ measurements of 2-m temperature （To ）, 2-m specific humidity （Qo ）, and 10-m horizontal winds [Vo =（Uo , Vo ）]. The background forecasts are generated by a one-dimensional coupled land surface-boundary layer model （CLS-BLM） with soil, surface-layer and PBL parameterization schemes similar to those used in the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model. Soil moisture, surface heat fluxes, and the state of the PBL evolve on different characteristic timescales, so the minimum assimilation time intervals required for skillful estimates of each target component are different. Correct estimates of the soil moisture profile are obtained effectively when a 6-h update time interval is used, while skillful estimates of surface fluxes and the PBL state require more frequent updates. The CLS-BLM requires a shorter assimilation time interval to correctly estimate the soil moisture profile than previously indicated by experiments using an off-line land surface model （LSM）. Results from assimilating different subsets of observations show that θo makes a larger contribution to soil moisture estimates, while To , θo , and Vo are more important for estimates of surface heat fluxes and the PBL state. It is therefore necessary to combine these variables to accurately estimate the states of both the land surface and the PBL. Experimentation with different prescribed observational errors shows that the assimilation system is more sensitive to increases in observational errors than to reductions in observational errors.