“热带气旋等级”升级

以往，近中心风速达12级以上的热带气旋都被称为“台风”，这也是热带气旋家族最高的强度级别。自今年6月15日起，新“热带气旋等级”国家标准正式颁布实行。新标准根据我国热带气旋监测、预警和服务以及防灾减灾的实际需要，增加了“强台风”和“超强台风”两个等级（详见表）。     

热带气旋降水模拟研究进展

中国是遭受热带气旋灾害最为严重的国家之一,准确的降水模拟对于开展热带气旋灾害风险评估有重要意义。本文从热带气旋灾害风险评估的视角,将降水模拟分为基于极值理论的降水极值模拟、基于站点的降水时空模拟和基于热带气旋路径的降水事件模拟3大类;根据风险评估对降水模拟的需求,从模型构建、发展及其特点等方面对3类模型进行分析评述;进而提出面向风险评估的热带气旋降水模拟,应兼顾降水模拟的一般性和热带气旋暴雨模拟的特殊性,平衡处理降水模拟结果的准确性、统计量的可靠性和计算量问题。以极值理论对降水极值模拟为基础,充分发挥降水时空模拟在处理长时间降水序列中的优势,并加强热带气旋降水的理论研究,进一步完善热带气旋降水事件的模拟模型。     

福建沿海主要海洋灾害与防灾减灾对策

本文分析了福建沿海地区的主要海洋灾害，并根据灾害的总体情况及特点，提出6点对策加强沿海海洋防灾减灾的教育和训练，防灾设施的建设和防灾标准，预报和监测工作，以法防灾减灾，建立和完善海洋灾害信息系统及国际、地区的合作。     

城市减灾研究综述

加强防御、控制城市灾害,增强城市综合减灾抗灾能力是当今国内外减灾工作的重点中的重点。在分析国内外城市减灾研究的基础上,提出当前城市防灾减灾研究中应重视开展城市灾害形成机制与活动规律、减灾理论与方法和减灾管理与对策的研究,其中要特别加强城市数字减灾系统构建、城市空间信息基础设施建设、城市易损性、风险性评价和灾害损失评估系统的研究。     

福建沿海主要海洋灾害与防灾减灾对策

本文分析了福建沿海地区的主要海洋灾害，并根据灾害的总体情况及特点，提出6点对策：加强沿海海洋防灾减灾的教育和训练，防灾设施的建设和防灾标准，预报和监测工作，以法防灾减灾，建立和完善海洋灾害信息系统及国际、地区的合作。     

云南省自然灾害风险防范对策

根据习近平总书记对防灾减灾工作的指示和视察云南时的三个指示精神,结合国家和云南省综合防灾减灾规划(2016-2020年),从云南省灾情特点即:地震频发,小震大灾;地质灾害点多面广;气象灾害增暖效应明显;森林火灾趋高;多灾种复合发生等现状出发,以风险管理4R模式为视角,找出云南防灾减灾主要存在的问题,即:防灾减灾多为应急模式;体制机制不够灵活;分部门分灾种与部门联动不够;防灾减灾高效社会治理机制尚待建立;科普宣传教育力度不够;社会防灾减灾意识与能力较弱等。针对这些问题,提出未来云南省自然灾害风险防范主要对策是加强风险管理,加强综合减灾,加强科技创新,推进社会购买服务等。     

广东气象灾害对经济建设的影响

气象灾害是影响社会经济发展的主要因素之一,中国是世界上气象灾害较严重的国家,其中广东又是气象灾害最频发的地区,成灾因子众多,灾情特别严重。因此,加强防灾减灾工作,建立防灾减灾系统,减轻灾害造成的损失,是快速发展广东经济建设的重大战略措施之一。     

宁夏强沙尘暴生态调控对策的初步研究

沙尘暴是恶劣生态环境的直接产物,沙尘暴防灾、减灾的根本出路在于改善生态环境。做好生态治理、提高生态调控自然灾害能力,应首先确保自然资源尤其是水资源的合理开发利用及涵养。依据对沙尘暴形成机理研究和历史演变分析,认为生态调控防灾减灾工作的开展,应强调地球科学、环境科学等多学科的有机交叉综合,从地球各圈层相互作用过程来揭示强沙尘暴运动规律和成灾机理,加强人口、资源、环境、灾害之间互馈的关系研究,通过土地荒漠化与强沙尘暴间的相互耦合关系以及风暴时空特征,分层次地摸清极限气候条件下生态环境的改良对强沙尘暴天气防灾减灾的生态调节功能,突破传统、被动的气象灾害"预测-救灾"体制,初步形成更适合现代社会经济可持续发展的高效、动态的"生态治理-灾害控制"的强沙尘暴调控体系。     

广东公路地质灾害的特点及防治对策

介绍了广东近年公路出现崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害的基本类型和特点, 分析了各种类型的成因机制和触发因素, 提出在道路选线和施工时, 应重视地质环境调查, 必须对路线的工程地质条件和场地的稳定性进行综合评价, 提高防灾意识。对崩塌或滑坡等地质灾害作整治时, 应注意调查灾害区的地质环境及其灾害的机制, 必须重视排除地表水和地下水的措施, 有针对性地施用抗滑和边坡治理方法。应加强重点路段潜在危险的路基和边坡进行预测预报, 提高减灾防灾的成效。     

我国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析

利用热带气旋路径资料和灾情资料,综合考虑热带气旋的频数、强度、范围以及持续时间,建立热带气旋潜在影响力指数,分析了1949-2009 年我国热带气旋的潜在影响力的空间格局和年际变化特征,并以0608 号超强台风“桑美”为例分析了该指数与灾害损失、过程极大风速、过程雨量的关系。研究结果表明：1949-2009 年间,我国的热带气旋的潜在影响力呈现出弱减少的趋势,这种趋势并不显著,但各阶段性的趋势比较明显;近20 年来,我国海南、广东、广西等华南沿海受热带气旋潜在影响力在下降,而浙江、福建、台湾等东南沿海省份受热带气旋潜在影响力在上升;潜在影响力指数最高的区域主要分布在台湾、海南、广东沿海、福建沿海以及浙江南部沿海等地;TCPI 与灾害损失、过程极大风速、过程降水量等有较好的相关性,并都通过了0.01 的显著性检验。     

厄尔尼诺事件的强度与登陆广东热带气旋数量的关系初探

文章对厄尔尼诺事件的强度与登陆广东的热带气旋数量之间的关系进行初步的了统计分析。结果表明: 就总的厄尔尼诺年份来看, 厄尔尼诺事件对登陆广东的热带气旋总数量没有显著的影响;但就具体的厄尔尼诺事件的强度来看, 强、中和弱的厄尔尼诺事件都对登陆广东的热带气旋有明显的影响, 只是强和弱的厄尔尼诺事件使登陆广东的热带气旋数量比非厄尔尼诺年份明显偏少; 而中等厄尔尼诺事件却使登陆广东的热带气旋数量比非厄尔尼诺年份偏多。厄尔尼诺通过影响沃克环流,使沃克环流随着厄尔尼诺强度的不同而产生不同幅度的东移,进而使登陆广东的热带气旋源地的气流出现不同情况,最后影响登陆广东的热带气旋的数量。     

Impacts of particulate matter on Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclones

This research analyzes the relationship between tropical cyclones and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) for landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones from 2000 to 2015. Daily mean PM₂.₅ concentrations were collected from the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Tropical cyclone data were acquired from Tropical Prediction Center Best Track Reanalysis in Unisys weather. GRIdded Binary (GRIB formatted) data were downloaded from the Data Support Section of the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Tracks of tropical cyclones were overlaid with the interpolated daily mean PM₂.₅ concentration value. Results suggest that, in general, tracks are distant from areas with the largest PM₂.₅ concentrations. To examine the cause-effect nature of this relationship, simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model suggests that the intensity of Hurricane Lili was weakened only after passing the most PM₂.₅-polluted area in Louisiana. This result suggests that aerosol loading may weaken the intensity of tropical cyclones, at least in some cases.     

THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

Traditionally, the development of tropical cyclones has been attributed to the coincidence of warm water, weak upper level divergence, and weak upper level wind shear. In this study, numerical simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of moisture on the intensification of these systems. Simulated tropical cyclones develop more quickly and become more intense when a moister initial sounding is used. Thus, attempts to explain the spatial and temporal distributions of tropical cyclones should include humidity in the list of variables to be examined.     

中国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析(英文)

Tropical cyclone,a high energy destructive meteorological system with heavy rainfall and gale triggered massive landslides and windstorms,poses a significant threat to coastal areas.In this paper we have developed a Tropical Cyclone Potential Impact Index (TCPI) based on the air mass trajectories,disaster information,intensity,duration,and frequency of tropical cyclones.We analyzed the spatial pattern and interannual variation of the TCPI over the period 1949-2009,and taking the Super Typhoon Saomai as an example have examined the relationship between the TCPI and direct economic losses,total rainfall,and maximum wind speed.The results reveal that China’s TCPI appears to be a weak decreasing trend over the period,which is not significant overall,but significant in some periods.Over the past 20 years,the TCPI decreased in the southern China coastal provinces of Hainan,Guangdong and Guangxi,while it increased in the southeastern coastal provinces of Zhejiang,Fujian and Taiwan.The highest values of TCPI are mainly observed in Taiwan,Hainan,the coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian and Zhejiang’s southern coast.The TCPI has a good correlation (P=0.01) with direct economic loss,rainfall,and maximum wind speed.     

影响蔬菜周年供应的原因及其对策

影响蔬菜周年均衡供应的原因是多方面的，不利的天气气候影响是主要原因之一。广西以广州市为例，剖析了影响蔬菜年供应的原因，并提出缩短淡季实现周年均衡供应的对策。     

Relative vulnerability of the forests along southeastern African coasts to cyclones

The forests of southeastern Africa are vulnerable to damage imposed by tropical cyclones operating in the South Indian Ocean. We undertook a geographical analysis to determine the relative vulnerability of forests given tropical cyclones recorded during the 1959–2008 storm seasons. From this analysis, eastern coastal forests of Madagascar seem to be the most vulnerable, although return intervals for severe storms vary along the eastern coast, and are shorter (about 10 years) through the central portion of the country. Therefore, the central lowland to upper montane rainforests on the eastern coast seem to be more vulnerable to damage from tropical cyclones than others in the area. While not as extensive, western coastal forests of Madagascar are also as vulnerable in part due to the recurvature of storms in the Mozambique Channel. Though the coastal forests of Mozambique are all nearly equal in terms of vulnerability, the return interval for severe storms to this area is highly variable. The inland Miombo forests of southeast Africa are less vulnerable to damage from tropical cyclones; however, portions of western Mozambique and Zimbabwe have experienced strong tropical storms in the last 50 years. A number of caveats and limitations associated with the data and analyses are noted. Given the broad scale of the study, the relative vulnerability and the return intervals for severe storms should be considered general representations of these phenomena for the southeastern African coast and the island of Madagascar.     

中国登陆热带气旋与太平洋海表温度的关系

根据1951～2000年中国登陆热带气旋与厄尔尼诺年、拉尼娜年的关系分析,得到了一些重要认识：(1) 在厄尔尼诺年,中国登陆热带气旋数偏少;(2) 厄尔尼诺事件强度越大,中国登陆热带气旋数越少;(3) 厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过5月1日,那么次年中国登陆热带气旋数偏少;(4) 中国登陆热带气旋数的特多年主要集中在拉尼娜年;(5) 在拉尼娜次年,中国登陆热带气旋数偏少;(6) 中国登陆热带气旋强度越大,在厄尔尼诺年出现机会越少;(7) 在厄尔尼诺年,中国初旋偏迟,终旋偏早。同时对其机理进行了探讨。     

Tropical Storm Gamma and the Mosquitia of eastern Honduras: a little-known story from the 2005 hurricane season

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was unprecedented in terms of storm activity in the United States, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean. Given the impacts of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the Honduran Mosquitia sparked little attention despite being hit by two hurricanes and a tropical storm in 2005. This article recounts the history of these storms in the Afro-Caribbean community of Batalla, drawing from public weather advisories and testimony of local residents obtained through participatory research. We contextualise this local history with results from the first paleotempestological study undertaken in the Mosquitia to shed light on long-term risk of catastrophic storms in the region and to demonstrate the value of integrating these two research approaches. Our findings contribute to recent ethnographic research on hazards by describing how a coastal people understand and respond to tropical cyclones and how landscape change influences the vulnerability of a coastal area. Although residents have not witnessed a storm as intense as those documented in the paleotempestological record, their knowledge and perceptions show how tropical cyclones can be disasters while leaving behind no sedimentary records. The paleotempestological evidence, however, reminds us that catastrophic hurricanes have struck the Mosquitia in the past and will do so again in the future. Understanding the interactions between contemporary human perceptions and responses and long-term hurricane risk provides insight for emergency managers and local stakeholders to better prepare for such a catastrophic event.     

广东省逐年初台登陆时间的变化特点

通过对广东省初始登陆时间资料的分析,发现其具周期变化的特点。根据循环阶段（周期）的划分,比较满意地解释了近３年广东省初始登陆时间明显偏迟的原因。