我国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析

利用热带气旋路径资料和灾情资料，综合考虑热带气旋的频数、强度、范围以及持续时间，建立热带气旋潜在影响力指数，分析了1949-2009 年我国热带气旋的潜在影响力的空间格局和年际变化特征，并以0608 号超强台风“桑美”为例分析了该指数与灾害损失、过程极大风速、过程雨量的关系。研究结果表明：1949-2009 年间，我国的热带气旋的潜在影响力呈现出弱减少的趋势，这种趋势并不显著，但各阶段性的趋势比较明显；近20 年来，我国海南、广东、广西等华南沿海受热带气旋潜在影响力在下降，而浙江、福建、台湾等东南沿海省份受热带气旋潜在影响力在上升；潜在影响力指数最高的区域主要分布在台湾、海南、广东沿海、福建沿海以及浙江南部沿海等地；TCPI 与灾害损失、过程极大风速、过程降水量等有较好的相关性，并都通过了0.01 的显著性检验。

Study on Tropical Cyclone Potential Impact Index in China

Based on tropical cyclone traces and disasters information, considering the tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, scope and duration, the study established the Tropical Cyclone Potential Impact Index (TCPI). It also analyzed the spatial pattern and interannual variations of TCPI for China during 1949-2009. As an example, the Super Typhoon "Saomai" (No.0608) was selected to analyze the relationship between TCPI and the direct economic losses, total rainfall, and maximum wind speed. The research had the following results: China's TCPI presented a weak decreasing trend during 1949-2009 and this trend was not significant, but in different phases the decreasing or increasing trend was more significant. The tropical cyclones potential impact decreased in coastal provinces of southern China such as Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi while it increased in southeastern coastal provinces such as Zhejiang, Fujian and Taiwan in recent 20 years. Highest TCPI is mainly observed in Taiwan, Hainan, Guangdong coast, Fujian coast and southern Zhejiang coast. TCPI has good correlation with the direct economic losses, rainfall and maximum wind speed, and the correlation is significant at the 0.01 level.