堵江滑坡作坝主要工程地质问题及实例

国内外大量的文献资料和作者的野外现场调查表明,滑坡堵江成坝形成堰塞湖在山区一带广泛发育.研究发现堵江滑坡作坝存在的工程地质问题,主要包括坝体的渗透变形、稳定性、沉降及不均匀沉降和砂土液化问题.对上述工程地质问题进行探讨,并对堵江滑坡坝进行实例分析,对开发利用滑坡堵江形成堰塞湖蕴藏的丰富水能资源具有指导作用.     

堵江滑坡作坝主要是工程地质问题及实例

国内外大量的文献资料和作者的野外现场调查表明,滑坡堵江成坝形成堰塞湖在山区一带广泛发育研究发现堵江滑坡作坝存在的地质问题,主要包括坝体的渗透变形、稳定性、沉降及不均匀沉降和砂土液化问题。对上术叶质问题进行探讨,并对堵江滑坡坝进行实例分析,对开发利用滑坡堵江形成堰寒湖藏的丰富水能资源具有指导作用。     

一个由左右岸滑坡形成的滑坡坝成因机制分析

滑坡坝及形成的堰塞湖在世界各国特别是山区一带广泛分布。它能够形成天然水库 ,在发生溃坝和洪水漫坝的情况下 ,造成的灾害损失很大。历史上产生过许多天然滑坡坝 ,有些很快发生溃坝 ,有些存在时间很长。存在时间较长的滑坡坝 ,它周围风景秀丽 ,成为旅游热点地区 ,同时也可开发其水资源。滑坡坝的形成有滑坡堵江、崩塌堵江和泥石流堵江 3种形式 ,它的形成机制对于滑坡坝的存在时间起了重要的作用。在开发和利用滑坡坝时 ,它的成因机制需要分析评价。本文对某滑坡坝的形成机制进行了研究 ,在研究某滑坡坝时发现 ,它由左右两岸的滑坡共同作用形成 ,这种形成模式在国内外报道很少 ,对类似工程也有一定的借鉴意义     

中国堵江滑坡的分布,成因和基本特征研究

滑坡堵江在中国山区广泛发育,全部或不完全堵塞江河,形成堰塞湖。作者近年来的研究工作主要在堵江滑坡的识别和调查上,目前已识别堵江滑坡１６０余个。在这些资料的基础上,研究了中国堵江滑坡的诱发因素、不同类型堵江滑坡发育的背景条件,天然堆石坝和堰塞湖的基本特征。     

堰塞坝形成机理及稳定性分析

滑坡、崩塌和泥石流是形成堰塞坝的三种主要方式,其形成堰塞坝的条件非常复杂,涉及因素广泛。另一方面,堰塞坝完全堵江形成堰塞湖在世界各国山区广泛分布,时有发生,造成严重灾害。因此,有必要对堰塞坝形成机理及安全性状评估进行研究。本文主要针对滑坡、崩塌、泥石流和碎屑流形成堰塞坝机理进行介绍并探讨了堰塞坝的破坏机制。同时,通过渗透稳定性、抗滑稳定性和抗冲刷稳定性3个方面评估了堰塞坝稳定性分析,以期为堰塞湖的防治与治理提供科学依据。     

大型崩滑堵江事件及其环境效应研究综述

详细介绍了目前国外对滑坡堵江自然灾害在各方面的研究现状,包括了滑坡堵江事件的识别研究、滑坡堵江天然堆石坝和堰塞湖的研究、骨坡堵江事件的灾害研究和天然堆石坝的合理利用和治理以及中国地质人员近几年在这类灾害研究中所做的工作,提出了堵江灾害研究中存在的问题和发展方向。     

滑坡堵江的地貌效应

综合采用现场调查、测量及室内理论分析等方法,以金沙江干流寨子村巨型滑坡群和金沙江支流海口大型滑坡为例,对滑坡堵江的地貌效应进行了初步探讨.寨子村古滑坡群的滑坡坝及堰塞湖沉积均有残留,后者沿江分布长度55km,面积约120km2.堵江段的金沙江平面弯曲、纵断面比降小、横断面宽而浅,具有平原区河流特征,与非堵江段差异显著.堰塞湖沉积分布区地形开阔,发育有土塬、冲沟及土梁等地貌单元,有时还会发生沙尘暴.海口滑坡的滑坡坝和堰塞湖沉积均保存完整:前者顺河水平投影长约1000m、最大厚度135m,后者沿河长3krn、面积8km2;两者分别使海口河河床比降增大、减小了11‰ 和95‰.滑坡堵江的地貌效应显著,它可以抑制高1山峡谷区的河流底蚀,使之成为“走两步退一步”的自我调节过程,而营造开阔空间的堰塞湖沉积大多都可开垦为农田,在长期影响所在区域地貌演化的同时,也为人类在复杂山区创造了若干宜居场所.     

金沙江上游特米古滑坡堰塞湖形成与溃决时间讨论

开展古滑坡堰塞湖形成演化过程研究,可以揭示古灾害地质环境效应,重建区域构造历史活动序列和古气候演变特征。特米古滑坡发育于金沙江上游巴塘段,滑坡堆积地貌和堰塞湖相沉积物保存较好,是研究区内古地质环境的良好载体。在遥感解译、无人机测绘、现场调查和地质测年的基础上,结合前人研究成果,分析探讨了特米古滑坡发育特征、堰塞湖形成时间与溃决演化过程。结果表明,特米古滑坡是特大型岩质历史堵江滑坡,滑坡堰塞湖实际形成时间应该远早于2.15 ka BP,历史上曾发生过多次溃决,完全溃决时间大约为1.08 ka BP,堰塞湖稳定保存时间大于1.07 ka。金沙江巴塘段大型堵江滑坡群并非由单次地质事件形成,而是由金沙江断裂带多次强烈地震诱发。     

未受河流阻止的滑坡水平运动距离与滑坡堵江判别

滑坡堵江是滑坡诱发的次生灾害之一,常导致堰塞湖、洪水等次生的灾害链,其根本原因在于滑坡与河流的空间区域小于滑坡运动的距离。如果滑坡的运动未受河流的显著阻止,滑坡的水平运动距离主要受控于滑坡的诱发机制、滑坡体积和滑坡的垂直运动距离。因此,根据未受河流明显阻止的地震和降雨滑坡的水平运动距离与滑坡体积和垂直运动距离的相关性以及预测模型,可对滑坡堵江的危险性进行判别。由此,根据我国西南地区降雨和汶川地震诱发的无明显受阻的滑坡数据,在分析了滑坡等效摩擦系数与体积关系的基础上,分别建立地震和降雨滑坡水平运动距离的预测模型。研究结果表明在不同体积等级滑坡水平运动距离的预测分布图上,地震和降雨诱发的堵江滑坡都明显的偏离其对应的体积曲线,根据建立的经验关系可对滑坡堵江的危险性进行判别。     

金沙江寨子村滑坡坝堰塞湖沉积及其对昔格达组地层成因的启示

金沙江干流右岸寨子村滑坡后缘与前缘高差638 m,滑坡体积约2.5×108m3,曾诱发严重的滑坡堵江事件,左岸坡残留滑坡坝顶面高出江面118 m,方量约180×104m3。寨子村滑坡坝堰塞湖沉积沿江连续分布长度46 km,平均宽度26 km,对金沙江干流及其支流的追踪使得堰塞湖沉积平面上呈现树枝状结构。堰塞湖沉积分布于1180 ~1500 m标高之间,主要由纹层状粉土、粉质粘土、粘土及粉细砂构成,偶夹砂卵石层,以水平层理为主,粉细砂层中见有小型交错层理,湖相沉积特征显著,而树枝状平面分布格局进一步证实其形成于堰塞湖环境,属于典型的昔格达组地层。大部分昔格达组地层应形成于滑坡坝堰塞湖,堰塞湖成因模式可以很好地解释昔格达组地层的露头区平面形态、埋藏特征、与冲积砂卵石层之间的成生关系、对河流的高度依赖性、不同地区昔格达组地层之间的沉积规模差异及空间离散性。     

滑坡堰塞湖溃决风险与过程研究进展

滑坡堰塞湖是山区常见的一种自然灾害, 对其溃决风险与过程的科学认知和合理评估是应急处置的关键。外荷载作用下滑坡堰塞体的力学响应、滑坡堰塞湖渐进破坏机理与溃决洪水预测理论是滑坡堰塞湖风险评估研究领域的关键科学问题。本文围绕滑坡堰塞湖形成后的溃决风险与过程展开综述, 从定性和定量的角度分别对堰塞湖危险性评价方法进行分析总结, 从小尺度、大尺度和超重力场试验技术的角度总结了堰塞湖的溃决机理、溃决过程及其影响因素, 从数学方法的角度对堰塞湖溃决洪水预测中经验公式法、简化和精细化数值模拟方法的进展进行总结评价。然而, 国内外关于滑坡堰塞湖风险评估领域的研究仍处于起步阶段, 空-天-地一体化监测技术、堰塞湖危险性评价中的不确定性问题、堰塞体材料冲蚀特性与溃决机理、堰塞湖溃决洪水精细化模拟等将是未来的重点研究方向。本综述可为堰塞湖防灾减灾和流域水工程风险管理提供有价值的参考。     

崩滑堰塞坝(湖)的地貌环境效应

崩滑堰塞坝(湖)具有显著的地貌环境效应,这种效应在时间尺度上分为短期和长期2种,主要表现在河流水文过程、地貌演变、环境生态、景观等方面.堰塞坝形成初期河流原有生境受到干扰,河流生态和景观出现退化.堰塞体溃决强烈改变下游水文过程及河流地貌,严重冲击河流生境和生态,并可能对下游基础设施和群众生命财产造成灾难性破坏.长期稳定维持的堰塞坝深刻影响河流地貌过程,并显著改善河流生境、生态,提升景观水平.堰塞坝(湖)是河床持续下切、岸坡失稳而自然反馈形成的裂点,能增加河流阻力,控制河床下切,如能长期维持是河流健康稳定的促进因素.     

The 12 May Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide lakes: distribution and preliminary risk evaluation

The Wenchuan earthquake, measured at M _s 8.0 according to the China Earthquake Administration, occurred at 14:28 on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province of China. It brought overwhelming destruction to eight provinces and cities. Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the earthquake produced 257 landslide lakes which were distributed along the fault rupture zone and river channels. The authors traveled to the disaster zone immediately after the earthquake to examine some of the features of the debris dams and performed a quick evaluation of the potential for outburst of earthquake-induced landslide lakes for the purpose of disaster relief. The preliminary analysis indicated that the landslide lakes could be classified as those exhibiting extremely high risk, medium risk, and low risk according to field observations and remote sensing, to determine material composition, dam structure, dam height, maximum water storage capacity, and size of the population potentially affected area. The failure risk of 21 debris dams were evaluated as follows: one dam with an extremely high danger risk, seven dams with a high danger, five dams with a medium danger, and eight dams of low danger. More concern was given to the Tangjiashan Lake and different scenarios for the potential sudden failure of its dam were assessed. The risk evaluation result was accepted in full, by the earthquake disaster relief office. A successful emergency dam treatment for risk reduction was planned, based on our assessments, and these measures were quickly carried out. According to this research, the earthquake destabilized the surrounding mountains, resulting in a prolonged geohazard for the area. Landslides and debris flows will continue to develop for at least 5 to 10 years after the Wenchuan earthquake and will produce additional dammed lakes. Recommendations and plans for earthquake–landslide lake mitigation were proposed, based on past successful practices.     

黄河上游德恒隆-锁子滑坡堵塞黄河事件

黄河上游龙羊峡刘家峡河段两岸岸坡形成了众多残留体积超过10⁸ m³的古巨型滑坡,最大体积近30×10⁸ m³,且大部分堵塞过黄河。但部分巨型滑坡至今未有学者进行科学研究,其中包括德恒隆滑坡和锁子滑坡。结合区域地质环境条件,通过对德恒隆-锁子两个巨型滑坡基本特征和滑坡堵塞黄河的野外7个地质现象进行分析,并对德恒隆-锁子滑坡形成机制进行初步探讨,认为德恒隆-锁子滑坡为地震型滑坡,且形成原因与青藏高原8万 a的构造期有密切关系。通过分析黄河沿岸堰塞湖湖相沉积,认为堰塞湖形成时间为8万 a左右,这与德恒隆-锁子滑坡的形成年代一致。因此德恒隆-锁子滑坡在地震作用下触发并堵塞黄河。     

Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

西藏东南雅鲁藏布大峡谷入口处 第四纪多次冰川阻江事件*

在第四纪的末次冰期、新冰期和小冰期期间,位于大峡谷入口处的则隆弄跃动冰川发生多次的快速前进,多次发生阻塞雅鲁藏布江事件,在大峡谷以上河段形成4期(Ⅳ~Ⅰ)的林芝古堰塞湖。¹⁴ C测年结果指示第2次、第3次和第4次堰塞湖分别发生在9760~11300aB.P.,1220±40~1660±40aB.P.和287±93~394±83aB.P.。估计Ⅳ~Ⅱ期堰塞湖库容量约2150km³,835km³和81km³。冰川阻塞湖坝的溃决释放突发性洪水,对下游的雅鲁藏布大峡谷河段及下游地区的环境产生巨大的影响。     

Development of an empirical model for predicting peak breach flow of landslide dams considering material composition

The existing empirical models do not consider the influence of material composition of landslide deposits on the peak breach flow due to the uncertainty in the material composition and the randomness of its distribution. In this study, based on the statistical analyses and case comparison, the factors influencing the peak breach flow were comprehensively investigated. The highlight is the material composition-based classification of landslide deposits of 86 landslide cases with detailed grain-size distribution information. In order to consider the geometric morphology of landslide dams and the potential energy of dammed lakes, as well as the material composition of landslide deposits in an empirical model, a multiple regression method was applied on a database, which comprises of 44 documented landslide dam breach cases. A new empirical model for predicting the peak breach flow of landslide dams was developed. Furthermore, for the same 44 documented landslide dam failures, the predicted peak breach flow obtained by using the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dams and that obtained by using the newly developed model were compared. The comparison of the root mean square error (E_rms) and the multiple coefficient of determination (R²) for each empirical model verifies the accuracy and rationality of the new empirical model. Furthermore, for fair validation, several landslide dam breach cases that occurred in recent years in China and have reliable measured data were also used in another comparison. The results show that the new empirical model can reasonably predict the peak breach flow, and exhibits the best performance among all the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dam breaching.