Sea surface temperature anomalies in the South China Sea during mature phase of ENSO

Based on the 18-year(1993–2010) National Centers for Environmental Prediction optimum interpolation sea surface temperature(SST) and simple ocean data assimilation datasets,this study investigated the patterns of the SST anomalies(SSTAs) that occurred in the South China Sea(SCS) during the mature phase of the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation.The most dominant characteristic was that of the outof-phase variation between southwestern and northeastern parts of the SCS,which was influenced primarily by the net surface heat flux and by horizontal thermal advection.The negative SSTA in the northeastern SCS was caused mainly by the loss of heat to the atmosphere and because of the cold-water advection from the western Pacific through the Luzon Strait during El Ni?o episodes.Conversely,it was found that the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened western boundary current during El Ni?o episodes led to the development of the positive SSTA in the southwestern SCS.     

Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Niño indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST, over the period of January 1982 to October 2003, the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Niño1+2, Niño3.4, Niño3, and Niño4 indices with time lags of 10, 3, 6, 5, and 6 months, respectively. Thus, a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1–12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated, using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992. The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1–12 months. The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1–12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent. The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years, in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years. We designed the two forecast models: one using both DMI and Niño indices and the other using only Niño indices without DMI, and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases. The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas. By turning off the DMI, the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS, suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area. The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI, while using both of Niño indices and DMI, the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months, suggesting that the Niño indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS. Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1–12 month lead time (the persisted prediction). Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction, especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months). The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy, i.e., the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas, when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level. For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts, the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2. The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1–12 month lead time are also examined.     

Long term sea level change and water mass balance in the South China Sea

Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993–2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea. The altimeter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of (3.5±0.9) mm yr-1 during the period 1993–2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly d...     

Interannual variability of latent and sensible heat fluxes in the South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) is significantly influenced by El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through ENSO-driven atmospheric and oceanic changes. We analyzed measurements made from 1960 to 2004 to investigate the interannual variability of the latent and sensible heat fluxes over the SCS. Both the interannual variations of latent and sensible heat fluxes are closely related to ENSO events. The low-pass mean heat flux anomalies vary in a coherent manner with the low-pass mean Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Time lags between the heat flux anomalies and the SST anomalies were also studied. We found that latent heat flux anomalies have a minimum value around January of the year following El Niño events. During and after the mature phase of El Niño, a change of atmospheric circulation alters the local SCS near-surface humidity and the monsoon winds. During the mature phase of El Niño, the wind speed decreases over the entire sea, and the air-sea specific humidity difference anomalies decreases in the northern SCS and increases in the southern SCS. Thus, a combined effect of wind speed anomalies and air-sea specific humidity difference anomalies results in the latent heat flux anomalies attaining minimum levels around January of the year following an El Niño year.     

Extreme Sea Level Rise off the Northwest Coast of the South China Sea in 2012

Tide gauge data are used to investigate sea level variability off the northwest coast of the South China Sea (SCS) in 2012, and a significant sea level elevation with a magnitude approaching 79 mm is observed. Analysis suggests that an abnormal sea surface heat flux and freshwater flux may have contributed to this abnormal rise in sea level, together with the remote influence of an ENSO event. Further investigation shows that the event was dominated by the positive freshwater flux, where large volumes of water entered the ocean, and a maximum is centered to the south of Guangdong province, China. Simultaneously, a positive anomalous heat flux occurred in the northwestern part of the SCS, which is considered to have made a positive contribution to the high local sea level elevation. In addition to the heat flux, the ENSO event also had a significant effect on the event, where the La Niña-induced northwest Pacific cyclone contributed to sea level rise over the northwestern SCS through dynamic and thermodynamic interactions.     

Asymmetric response of the South China Sea SST to El Niño and La Niña

The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated according to its relationship with El Nio/La Nia (EN/LN) using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS SST bears two peaks associated with EN/LN and shows the asymmetric features. Coinciding with the mature phase of EN/LN, the first SST warming/cooling peaks in December(0)-February(1) (DJF(1)) and centers in the southern part. The major difference is in the amplitude associated with the strength of EN/LN. However, the SCS SST anomaly shows distinct difference after the mature phase of EN/LN. The EN SST warm-ing develops a mid-summer peak in June-August(1) (JJA(1)) and persists up to September-October(1), with the same amplitude of the first warming peak. Whereas the LN SST cooling peaks in May(1), it decays slowly until the end of the year, with amplitude much weaker. Comparing with SST and atmospheric circulations, the weak response and early termination of the second cooling is due to the failure of the cyclonic wind anomalies to develop in the northwest Pacific during JJA(1).     

Imprint of the ENSO on rainfall and latent heating variability over the Southern South China Sea from TRMM observations

Analyses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets revealed a prominent interannual variation in the convective-stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern South China Sea (SCS) during the winter monsoon between 1998 and 2010. Although the height of maximum latent heating remained nearly constant at around 7 km in all of the years, the year-to-year changes in the magnitudes of maximum latent heating over the region were noticeable. The interannual variations of the convective- stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern SCS were highly anti-correlated with the Niño-3 index, with more (less) rainfall and latent heating during La Niña (El Niño) years. Analysis of the large-scale environment revealed that years of active rainfall and latent heating corresponded to years of large deep convergence and relative humidity at 600 hPa. The moisture budget diagnosis indicated that the interannual variation of humidity at 600 hPa was largely modulated by the vertical moisture advection. The year-to-year changes in rainfall over the southern SCS were mainly caused by the interannual variations of the dynamic component associated with anomalous upward motions in the middle troposphere, while the interannual variations of the thermodynamic component associated with changes in surface specific humidity played a minor role. Larger latent heating over the southern SCS during La Niña years may possibly further enhance the local Hadley circulation over the SCS in the wintertime.     

Interannual variations of North Equatorial Current transport in the Pacific Ocean during two types of El Niño

Interannual variations of Pacific North Equatorial Current (NEC) transport during eastern-Pacific El Niños (EP-El Niños) and central-Pacific El Niños (CP-El Niños) are investigated by composite analysis with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Ocean Analysis/Reanalysis System 3. During EP-El Niño, NEC transport shows significant positive anomalies from the developing to decay phases, with the largest anomalies around the mature phase. During CP-El Niño, however, the NEC transport only shows positive anomalies before the mature phase, with much weaker anomalies than those during EP-El Niño. The NEC transport variations are strongly associated with variations of the tropical gyre and wind forcing in the tropical North Pacific. During EP-El Niño, strong westerly wind anomalies and positive wind stress curl anomalies in the tropical North Pacific induce local upward Ekman pumping and westward-propagating upwelling Rossby waves in the ocean, lowering the sea surface height and generating a cyclonic gyre anomaly in the western tropical Pacific. During CP-El Niño, however, strength of the wind and associated Ekman pumping velocity are very weak. Negative sea surface height and cyclonic flow anomalies are slightly north of those during EP El Niño.     

The interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2007 period and the thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2005 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published are used to investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level observed by altimeter and those of the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data in the JES are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by the thermal expansion in the JES. An ‘enigma’ is revealed that the correlation between the thermosteric sea level and ENSO during the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) warm phase (post mid-1970s) is inconsistent with that during the cold phase (pre mid-1970s) in the JES. The thermosteric sea level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest a strong negative correlation during the period 1977–1998, whereas there appears a relatively weak positive correlation during the period 1945–1976 in the JES. Based on the SODA (Simple Oceanographic Data Assimilation) datasets, possible mechanisms of the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the JES are discussed. Comprehensive analysis reveals that the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southeast wind stress, the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES during the PDO warm phase. During the PDO cold phase, the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southwest wind stress, the negative anomalies of the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES.     

Analyzing the influences of two types of El Niño on tropical cyclone genesis with a modified genesis potential index

To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of El Niño cycle on tropical cyclones (TC) is important and useful for TC forecast. Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction for the period 1975–2014, we investigated the influences of two types of El Niño, the eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) and central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño), on global TC genesis. We also examined how various environmental factors contribute to these influences using a modified genesis potential index (MGPI). The composites reproduced for two types of El Niño, from their developing to decaying phases, were able to qualitatively replicate observed cyclogenesis in several basins except for the Arabian Sea. Certain factors of MGPI with more influence than others in various regions are identified. Over the western North Pacific, five variables were all important in the two El Niño types during developing summer (July–August–September) and fall (October–November–December), and decaying spring (April–May–June) and summer. In the eastern Pacific, vertical shear and relative vorticity are the crucial factors for the two types of El Niño during developing and decaying summers. In the Atlantic, vertical shear, potential intensity and relative humidity are important for the opposite variation of EP- and CP-El Niños during decaying summers. In the Southern Hemisphere, the five variables have varying contributions to TC genesis variation during peak season (January–February–March) for the two types of El Niño. In the Bay of Bengal, relative vorticity, humidity and omega may be responsible for clearly reduced TC genesis during developing fall for the two types and slightly suppressed TC cyclogenesis during EP-El Niño decaying spring. In the Arabian Sea, the EP-El Niño generates a slightly positive anomaly of TC genesis during developing falls and decaying springs, but the MGPI failed to capture this variation.

     

Meridional Variation of the 1955-2003 Sea Level Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Associated with El Nifio Events

The Sea Level Anomaly-Torque （SLAT, relative to a reference location in the Pacific Ocean）, which means the total torque of the gravity forces of sea waters with depths equal to the Sea Level Anomaly （S/A） in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is defined in this study. The time series of the SLAT from merged altimeter data （1993-2003） had a great meridional variation during the 1997-1998 E1 Nifio event. By using historical upper layer temperature data （1955-2003） for the tropical Pacific Ocean, the temperature-based SLAT is also calculated and the meridional variation can be found in the historical E1 Nifio events （1955-2003）, which suggests that the meridional shifts of the sea level anomaly are also intrinsic oscillating modes of the E1 Nifio cycles like the zonal shifts.     

Surface thermal centroid anomaly of the eastern equatorial Pacific as a unified Niño index

By analyzing the variability of global SST(sea surface temperature) anomalies,we propose a unified Ni o index using the surface thermal centroid anomaly of the region along the Pacific equator embraced by the 0.7°C contour line of the standard deviation of the SST anomalies and try to unify the traditional Ni o regions into a single entity.The unified Ni o region covers almost all of the traditional Ni o regions.The anomaly time series of the averaged SST over this region are closely correlated to historical Ni o indices.The anomaly time series of the zonal and meridional thermal centroid have close correlation with historical TNI(Trans-Ni o index) indices,showing differences among El Ni o(La Ni a) events.The meridional centroid anomaly suggests that areas of maximum temperature anomaly are moving meridionally(although slightly) with synchronous zonal movement.The zonal centroid anomalies of the unified Ni o region are found helpful in the classification of the Eastern Pacific(EP)/Central Pacific(CP) types of El Ni o events.More importantly,the zonal centroid anomaly shows that warm areas might move during a single warming/cooling phase.All the current Ni o indices can be well represented by a simple linear combination of unified Ni o indices,which suggests that the thermal anomaly(SSTA) and thermal centroid location anomaly of the unified Ni o region would yield a more complete image of each El Ni o/ La Ni a event.     

Sea level along the southeast coast of China during El Niño

In El Niño years, along the southeast China coast, the seasonal cycle of sea level variation—low in spring, high in autumn—is attenuated: specifically, the autumn peak is reduced by about 10 cm. This negative anomaly increases toward the south and occurs at the same time as a similar (but five times larger) sea level anomaly at Truk Island (7.5°N) in the western Pacific.     

Interannual variability in the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation

We analyzed the temporal and spatial variation, and interannual variability of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation using an empirical orthogonal function method, and calculated mass transport using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation Data from 1958–2008. The meridional streamfunction field in the North Pacific tilts N-S; the Tropical Cell (TC), Subtropical Cell (STC), and Deep Tropical Cell (DTC) may be in phase on an annual time scale; the TC and the STC are out of phase on an interannual time scale, but the interannual variability of the DTC is complex. The TC and STC interannual variability is associated with ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The TC northward, southward, upward, and downward transports all weaken in El Niños and strengthen in La Niñas. The STC northward and southward transports are out of phase, while the STC northward and downward transports are in phase. Sea-surface water that reaches the middle latitude and is subducted may not completely return to the tropics. The zonal wind anomalies over the central North Pacific, which control Ekman transport, and the east-west slope of the sea level may be major factors causing the TC northward and southward transport interannual variability and the STC northward and southward transports on the interannual time scale. The DTC northward and southward transports decrease during strong El Niños and increase during strong La Niñas. DTC upward and downward transports are not strongly correlated with the Niño-3 index and may not be completely controlled by ENSO.     

Short- and long-term response of phytoplankton to ENSO in Prydz Bay,Antarctica: Evidences from field measurements,remote sensing data and stratigraphic biomarker records

The study provides one of the first lines of evidence showing linkages between Antarctic phytoplankton abundance and composition in response to ENSO, based on historical reconstruction of sediment biomarkers. In addition to sediment biomarkers, field measured and remote sensing data of phytoplankton abundance were also recorded from Prydz Bay, Eastern Antarctica. Com-munity structure of field measured phytoplankton showed significant El Ni？o/La Ni？a-related succession during 1990 to 2002. In general, the number of algae species decreased during El Ni？o and La Ni？a years compared to normal years. Austral summer monthly variation of remotely sensed chlorophyll-a （Chl-a）, particulate organic carbon （POC）, and sea surface temperature （SST） indicated that ENSO impacted the timing of phytoplankton blooms during 2007 to 2011. Phytoplankton blooms （indicated by Chl-a and POC） preceded the increases in SST during El Ni？o years, and lagged behind the SST increases during La Ni？a years. Stratigraphic record of marine sedimentary lipid （brassicasterol, dinosterol and alkenones） biomarkers inferred that the proportions of different algae （diatoms, dinoflagellates and haptophytes） changed significantly between El Ni？o and La Ni？a events. The relative proportion of diatoms increased, with that of dinoflagellates being decreased during El Ni？o years, while it was reversed during La Ni？a years.     

Interpretation of sea surface wind interannual vector EOFs over the China seas

Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Niño events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Niño 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Niño event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Niño occurs in winter. If El Niño happens in summer, the reverse is true.     

Movements of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Centroid and Their Relationship to Sea Surface Temperature Changes in Nifio Regions

By using monthly historical sea surface temperature (SST) data for the years from 1950 to 2000, the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) climatology and anomalies are studied in this paper. The analysis of WPWP centroid (WPWPC) movement anomalies and the Niño-3 region SST anomalies(SSTA) seems to reveal a close, linear relation between the zonal WPWPC and Niño-3 region SSTA, which suggests that a 9° anomaly of the zonal displacement from the climatological position of the WPWPC corresponds to about a l°C anomaly in the Niño-3 region area-mean SST. This study connects the WPWPC zonal displacement with the Niño-3 SSTA, and it may be helpful in better understanding the fact that the WPWP eastward extension is conducive to the Niño-3 region SST increase during an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.     

Distribution of the tropical Pacific surface zonal wind anomaly and its relation with two types of El Niño

El Nio events with an eastern Pacific pattern(EP) and central Pacific pattern(CP) were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions(REOF).Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decomposition(RSVD) analyses were then carried out to study the relation between the surface zonal wind(SZW) anomalies and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific.A possible physical process for the CP El Ni o was proposed.For the EP El Ni o,strong westerly anomalies that spread eastward continuously produce an anomalous ocean zonal convergence zone(ZCZ) centered on about 165°W.This SZW anomaly pattern favors poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator.For the CP El Nio,westerly anomalies and the ZCZ are mainly confined to the western Pacific,and easterly anomalies blow in the eastern Pacific.This SZW anomaly pattern restrains poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator;however,there is an eastward Sverdrup transport at about 5°N,which favors the warming of the north-eastern tropical Pacific.It is found that the slowness of eastward propagation of subsurface warm water(partly from the downwelling caused by Ekman convergence and the ZCZ) is due to the slowdown of the undercurrent in the central basin,and vertical advection in the central Pacific may be important in the formation and disappearance of the CP El Nio.     

SST variations of the Kuroshio from AVHRR observation

1 INTRODUCTION The Kuroshio Current (KC), being the western boundary current in the North Pacific subtropical gyre, is the second strongest current in the world af- ter the Gulf Stream and is famous as a strong and fast flow. KC plays an important role in…     

Environmental anomalies in the northeastern East China Sea during the last 3 000 years: implications for El Niño activity in the Holocene

To reconstruct the productivity changes for the last 10 500 a in the northeastern East China Sea (ECS), biogenic compounds (such as carbonate, organic carbon and opal), marine micropaleontological fossils (planktonic foraminifera, benthic foraminifera, radiolarian and silicoflagellate) and the compositional characters of benthic foraminifera fauna analyses were carried out on a sediment core DOC082 obtained from the western slope of Okinawa Trough (29°13.93′N, 128°08.53′E; 1 128 m water depth). The long-term changes of biogenic and micropaleontological proxies display some similarities through the last 10 500 a, which show three different phases: lower values are recorded during the early and middle Holocene (before about 4 000 a BP), followed by an abrupt and remarkable increase at about 4 000 a BP, the late Holocene (after about 3 000 a BP) is characterized by continuously high values. The multi-proxy data of paleoproductivity and percents of benthic foraminifera genera (Uvigerina and Bulimina) show that during the early and middle Holocene (10 500–4 000 a BP) productivity was relatively low with a sudden and distinct increase at about 4 000 a BP, and the late Holocene (3 400–0 a BP) is marked by significantly higher productivity. Also, the radiolarian-based sea surface temperature (SST) records reveal a distinct decline in SST in the late Holocene after 3 200 a BP, very different from the early and middle Holocene. For the last 3 000 a, the enhanced biological productivity and distinctly lower SST indicate a major change of oceanographic conditions in the northeastern ECS. These marine environmental anomalies are consistent with other paleoclimatic records for the late Holocene in the Chinese continent and its surrounding regions. After analyzing the mechanisms of modern productivity and SST changes in the northeastern ECS, and based on the climatic anomalies in the Chinese continent and variations in the Kuroshio Current during modern El Niño periods, we suggest that the anomalous environmental conditions in the northeastern ECS may imply intensified El Niño activity during the late Holocene.