陆地水循环过程的综合集成与模拟

在气候变化与人类活动的影响下,陆地水循环过程发生了明显改变,并导致了一系列资源环境问题。深入认识陆地水循环过程的变化机理,发展陆地水循环过程综合集成模拟技术,预估未来陆地水循环的变化趋势,是当前水循环研究面临的重要任务。主要关注人类活动影响下的大尺度(大河流域或大陆尺度)陆地表层系统水循环模拟,梳理了近年来陆地水循环过程综合集成与模拟相关的研究进展,指出当前大尺度陆地表层系统水循环模拟模型的主要问题是对自然过程与人类活动过程间相互作用描述不足,以及人类活动参数化方案的不完善。因此,完善人类活动参数化方案,构建陆地水循环过程的综合集成模型,是模拟研究的重要发展方向之一。同时,考虑多要素过程的综合集成模型有助于解释气候变化与人类用水活动影响水循环变化的关键机制,为探索变化环境下陆地水循环变化成因及其效应提供理论与实践基础,其结果将为区域水资源配置及应对全球变化的战略决策提供科学依据。     

Impacts of Human Water Use on the Large-scale Terrestrial Water Cycle

Along with the increase of population and extraordinary economic and social development, human appropriation of freshwater supply increases rapidly. Anthropogenic activities have become an important driving factor of the large-scale terrestrial water cycle. The hydrological effects of human water use have attracted growing attention. In this paper, we briefly reviewed the recent studies addressing the anthropogenic disturbance of the large-scale terrestrial water cycle. The review focused on the direct alteration of the water cycle for human needs, with special coverage for the primary aspects of human water use such as irrigation, domestic and industrial water use, reservoir regulation and groundwater mining. The state-of-the-art parameterization schemes of human water use for macroscale land surface hydrological modeling were introduced and the limitations of the schemes were discussed. Considering the impacts of human water use on the terrestrial water cycle is currently a challenge for macroscale land surface hydrological modeling, which hinders the use of the models in assessing water resources under changing environment. Further studies are needed to understand the interactions between human and water systems, to develop integrated assessment model of coupled human-water systems, and to assess regional and global water security.     

Research on Climate Feedback of Human Water Use and Its Impact on Terrestrial Water Cycles —Advances and Challenges

The terrestrial water cycle is the mutual transformation of surface and near-surface water, which controls the supply of fresh water resources. It is affected by human activities, solar radiation and gravity, as well as climate and environmental conditions. Inter-basin water transfer, irrigation, crop cultivation and harvesting, exploitation of groundwater water and other human activities lead to the change of spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture, the underground water level, surface albedo, surface evaporation, as well as water and energy exchange between land surface and atmosphere. Human water use generates important feedback on the climate and changes the processes of the terrestrial water cycle significantly. The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in China is uneven. In addition, human activities further exacerbate the fragility of water resources and the contradiction between supply and demand, posing a serious challenge to the sustainable development of social economy. Therefore, understanding the laws and mechanisms of terrestrial water cycle change is very important for water resources utilization and human sustainable development. From the perspective of climate change and human activities, this paper summarized the impact of human activities on terrestrial water cycle and the progress of climate feedback research. It is urgent to consider the evolution of terrestrial water cycle and its climate under the dual impact of natural and human activities, and develop the large-scale land surface hydrological models and climate models with human water use, crop planting and irrigation, lateral groundwater flow. From the perspective of a fully coupled system, we need quantitatively to assess the climate feedback of human water use and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle process, and to explore its mechanism. We need to distinguish the contribution of human water activities and global climate change to the evolution of terrestrial water cycle in the context of climate change, and to propose water resources management strategies to address climate change.     

气候变化对陆地水循环影响研究的问题

简要地回顾了现存的由气候情景驱动水文模型研究气候变化对陆地水循环影响的方法。指出这种单向连接方法很难将气候变暖及人类活动引起的陆地水循环变化反馈给大气。这既影响对降雨的预测精度,又不能正确地描写陆地水循环的变化。近10年来气候学家对大气环流模型中陆面过程模型的改进以及水文气候学家对大尺度水文模型研究所取得的进展,展现了它们之间的互补性,以及未来用水文-气候耦合模型方法研究气候变化与人类活动对陆地水循环影响及水资源预测的可能性。     

生态海绵智慧流域建设——从状态改变到能力提升

在气候变化和人类活动日趋增强的影响下,同一流域往往面临着水资源、水环境、水生态和水沙等多种水问题,且干旱和洪涝等极端事件发生的频率日渐增强;系统治理及减缓极值化,成为流域综合治理关键任务,而提升流域对水循环多过程的调节能力则是其关键。在对中国水问题发展形势进行研判的基础上,系统剖析了传统治水模式中强调“状态改变”、“末端治理”、“过程分离”等的不足;明晰了变化环境下水问题系统治理的总体需求和生态海绵智慧流域建设的总体思路;提出了生态海绵智慧流域建设的总体技术框架和若干关键问题。生态海绵智慧流域建设将充分遵循水循环多过程的演变规律,规范人类水土资源开发活动,实现地表-土壤-地下多过程、水量-水质-泥沙-水生态的联合调控,最大限度实现“去极值化”,建设健全流域的综合服务功能,保育“山水林田湖”生命体功能。     

水文科学研究进展的回顾与展望

对水文科学的研究现状、主要进展和发展趋势进行了系统深入的总结和分析,其结果表明,社会需求是水文科学发展的根本动力,技术进步是水文科学发展的源泉。水文科学不仅要研究地表水文过程,还要研究各圈层界面上水分和能量交换过程,不仅要研究水在运动转化过程中的物理过程,还要研究水中各种化学成分的化学过程,特别需要加强水在水文循环和运动中生物过程的研究,从而使水文学向生态水文学的方向迈进。目前,生态水文学、全球气候变化影响是水文学研究的热点领域之一。今后除了进一步继续完善和深化水文科学的理论体系,还要不断丰富水文科学的社会服务功能,为经济建设和社会发展提供科技支撑。     

变化环境下城市水文学的发展与挑战——I.城市水文效应

全球气候变化和快速城市化导致的城市水循环过程变化是当前城市水文学研究的热点问题。为综合理解城市水循环演变过程,结合城市水文学的发展历程,剖析水循环过程对快速城市化进程的响应机制。总结了国内外城市化水文效应的主要成果,包括城市化对水循环过程、洪涝灾害、水生态系统以及水资源的影响。系统归纳了城市化水文效应的评估方法和技术手段。针对现有研究中的不足,指出变化环境下城市化水文效应研究面临的主要挑战及关键技术难题,提出未来研究的重点方向,如城市化降水效应的机理、不透水面的分布及有效性评估、城市化与水生态系统的响应关系与综合城市水资源管理及需水预测等。     

干旱区流域生态水文耦合模拟与调控的若干思考

系统识别全球变化和高强度人类活动影响下干旱区流域生态水文耦合作用机制及演变规律,并通过综合生态水文调控,构建健康水循环和生态安全格局,是干旱区流域亟待解决的关键科学问题。传统的基于水文过程与生态过程的分离模拟与调控,尚不能满足上述实践需求;需结合原型观测与实验,对大气模式、水文模型、生态模式（包括天然生态模拟模型和作物生长模式）进行耦合开发,构建具有统一物理机制的流域生态水文模型。以此为支撑,对干旱区流域生态水文过程演变规律及阈值特征进行系统识别;并结合水生态服务功能评价,提出流域生态安全修复及水资源合理配置与调度方案;制定有效的风险管理措施,对流域生态水文过程进行动态调控。     

湿地地表水—地下水交互作用的研究综述

湿地地表水—地下水之间的水量与水质交互作用是影响湿地水文过程及其生态环境效应的重要机制。从湿地地表水—地下水交互作用的内涵、影响因素、界面效应及其研究方法与模型等5个方面,归纳总结了国内外相关的研究成果。分析认为:湿地地表水—地下水交互作用受到地质/水文地质条件与水文情势共同控制,对未来变化环境尤其是气候变化的响应机制是其影响因素研究关注的焦点,在此背景下物理—化学—生物多层次环境界面之间的"激励—响应"更加显著,将成为理解湿地—地下水交互作用过程及其环境反馈的重要内容。结合多学科交叉理论与方法,利用不同界面特征的响应变化反馈指示湿地地表水—地下水交互作用是未来研究方法发展与创新的基本思路。结合湿地水文特性整合不同尺度的数据信息、耦合交互过程的不同机制等是模型构建的关键科学问题,实现交互作用过程中的地表水—地下水耦合、水量—水质联合模拟是模型研究的发展趋势。     

海河流域二元水循环模型开发及其应用——Ⅰ.模型开发与验证

针对高强度人类活动作用下海河流域水循环的"自然-人工"二元特性,开发了流域二元水循环模型(简称"二元模型").二元模型由分布式流域水循环模型(WEP)、水资源合理配置模型(ROWAS)和多目标决策分析模型(DAMOS)3个模型耦合而成.针对各模型的优势与不足,提出了两层耦合的技术路线,以实现统筹考虑水资源、宏观经济与生态环境的流域水资源综合管理分析的功能.WEP、ROWAS和DAMOS分别采用11752个、125个和8个计算单元对海河流域进行划分,在获取各类输入参数后,应用二元模型对海河流域进行了分析计算与模型验证.结果表明,所建立的二元模型对径流过程、入海水量以及地下水流场等均具有合理的模拟精度,模型得到验证,可望用作海河流域水资源规划与管理的情景分析工具.     

Some scientific problems facing research on hydrological processes in an inland river basin

The challenge is put forward to scientific hydrology by the advancement of water sciences; that is, how should we carry out a multidisciplinary, integrated and cooperative research on hydrological processes in the basin, regional and global scales, in order to better understand the role water plays in the changes of the natural resources and environment of the earth, and to understand the hydrosphere and its interactions with the atmosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. How the changes and transformation of the components of the water cycle and water balance occur in an inland river basin has yet to be understood. We also need to understand what the interactions of water cycle, ecosystems and environment are, and what the responses and feedback of the changes to global change and to human activities are. The water cycle in an inland river basin characterizes the runoff generation region of the mountains upstream, the artificial oases region of water resources exploitation and utilization midstream and the natural desert oases region of runoff dissipating downstream. The mountain hydrological processes are discussed from water cycle, energy balance, water balance and ecological processes. The interactions of water and vegetation are discussed in relation to ecohydrology, and the hydrological processes in the ground water-soil-vegetation layer are discussed from the concept of the critical zone newly put forward abroad. The basic frame is put forward to carry out the field measurement, experiment and studies of hydrological processes in a typical inland river basin. __________ Translated from Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(9): 940–953 [译自: 地球科学进展]     

气候与土地利用变化对水文水资源的影响研究

水资源短缺和水患灾害已成为全球关心的重大问题。气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源和旱涝的影响以及由此产生的社会经济后果已引起人类社会的广泛关注。深入综合地开展这方面的研究对国民经济建设和可持续发展规划决策有重要的意义。通过分析总结已进行的有关研究工作 ,对该领域的研究进展作了简要回顾 ,讨论了现有工作的不足和今后的研究内容和方法。     

黑河流域节水生态农业与流域水资源集成管理研究领域

概述了中国内陆河流域面临的水问题和日益激化的用水矛盾,强调了内陆河地区支柱产业——绿洲农业应该坚持节水和生态的方向,流域集成管理是持续农业的基础。长期从事该方面研究的黑河流域是个较好借鉴,同时也提供了深入开展相关研究的基础,为此提出了以黑河流域为背景的四大研究流域：水文、生物、经济系统水循环与水资源形成演变,节水农业的生物学研究与抗旱品种繁育,农业节水新材料研发与工程节水技术集成,水资源合理配置与流域集成管理;并简述了各领域的主要方向。     

气候变化对京津唐地区水资源及供需平衡的影响

根据大气环流模型(GCMs)输出的未来气候变化情景,结合历史资料的诊断分析,应用建立的流域水文模型及水资源利用综合评价模型,研究了气候变化对京津唐地区水资源数量和时空变化的影响。在地区未来经济发展及部门用水量预测的基础上,分析了气候变化对供水、需水和部门缺水的影响以及经济损失。     

乌力吉木仁河三级区水资源变异及归因分析

随着气候变化和人类活动对水资源影响越来越显著,大量水文序列的统计规律不再满足一致性要求而出现了变异。水资源日益重要的社会地位,要求在对水文变异进行检测的同时,需进一步量化影响其变异的因素,但目前归因分析的研究仍以定性或半定量为主。由于降雨和径流是水循环中关键的水文要素,且分别可以反映气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响,利用降雨-径流关系提出了定量研究水资源变异的归因分析方法。结合乌力吉木仁河三级区1956~2000的年径流和年降雨序列,在对其分别进行变异诊断的基础上,定量地分析了造成该区水文变异的原因。计算结果表明:气候变化对乌力吉木仁河三级区水资源变异的贡献率为24%,而人类活动影响的贡献率为76%,可见人类活动是造成该区水资源变异的主要因素。     

土地利用与气候变化对密云水库来水量变化的影响研究

综合应用多种方法,评估了土地利用与气候变化对密云水库来水量变化的影响.应用Mann-Kendall全时段趋势检验方法检验不同时段降水与径流的变化趋势;结合水量平衡方法分析气候与土地利用变化对流域径流的影响;利用双累积曲线方法检测了流域降水-径流关系的突变点,并探讨其原因.结果表明,1960～2016年,密云水库来水量整...     

流域绿水研究的关键科学问题

阐述了开展流域绿水研究的重要意义,分析了流域绿水研究的关键科学问题：①绿水量的测算方法与尺度转换;②流域绿水流的形成、转化及其生态水文响应机理;③流域绿水资源评价与管理。指出流域水资源评价与管理要以降水为基本水资源,综合考虑蓝水和绿水两部分,协调流域上、中、下游生态、生产和生活用水,充分开发利用非生产性绿水资源,平衡自然生态和人类用水。     

Progress in the Study of Marine Stable Nitrogen Isotopic Changes and Its Geological Records

Marine stable nitrogen isotope containing much key biogeochemical information, is an important way in identifying marine nitrogen sources and understanding the marine nitrogen cycles. These isotopic signals can be preserved in marine sediments and used to trace the marine biogeochemical cycles and environment changes during geological history. Studies in recent decades have illustrated the key role of nitrogen fixation and denitrification. Because of the spatiotemporal variability and the complexity of ocean processes and nitrogen sources in the marine environment, we need to combine the modern observations with geological records, integrate oceanography, biology, and geology, and consider the hydrological environment, geological processes and climate changes, to understand the coupling between the ocean nitrogen cycle, climate and environmental changes.     

内陆河流域水文过程研究的一些科学问题

水科学研究的发展,对水文科学提出了新的挑战,即如何在流域、区域和全球尺度进行学科交叉、综合集成和协同研究,从而更全面地认识水在地球资源和环境变化中的作用,认识水圈及其与大气圈、岩石圈和生物圈的相互作用。为了解内陆河流域水文循环和水量平衡各分量之间的变化和转化关系及其与生态和环境之间的相互作用,以及对全球变化和人类活动的响应和反馈,基于内陆河流域上游山区径流形成区、中游人工绿洲水资源开发利用区和下游荒漠绿洲径流散失区的流域水文循环特征,从能水通量、生态和生物地球化学过程讨论了山区水文过程;从生态水文、尺度转换、阈值和反馈讨论了水文和植被的相互作用;从国外提出的关键作用带的概念讨论了内陆河流域地下水—土壤—植被作用层的水文过程。提出了开展内陆河流域水文过程观测和研究的基本框架。     

Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning

Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.