土地利用与气候变化对密云水库来水量变化的影响研究

综合应用多种方法,评估了土地利用与气候变化对密云水库来水量变化的影响。应用MannKendall全时段趋势检验方法检验不同时段降水与径流的变化趋势;结合水量平衡方法分析气候与土地利用变化对流域径流的影响;利用双累积曲线方法检测了流域降水-径流关系的突变点,并探讨其原因。结果表明,1960~2016年,密云水库来水量整体呈显著的减少趋势;1980s以后,土地利用变化、人类活动用水量剧增是引起径流减少的重要因素,其中土地利用变化导致蒸散发减少,对径流变化的贡献率达60%。

Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Water Inflow Variation in the Miyun Reservoir

This paper evaluated the impacts of land use and climate changes on water inflow variation in the Miyun Reservoir by applying multi-methods.Firstly,the all periods Mann-Kendall trend test method was applied to detect trends of precipitation and runoff in each period.Spatial and temporal characters of land use change was also analyzed.Then,the hydrological budget balance method was used to evaluate impact of climate and land use changes on runoff in the reservoir catchment.Finally,the double mass curve method was applied to detect abrupt changing point of the relationship of precipitation-runoff.The results show that the trend of water inflow variation in the Miyun Reservoir is significantly decreased during 1960-2016.Land use change and increasing water consumption by human activities are the main reasons for decreased runoff after 1980 s.Land use change leadd to the decrease of evapotranspiration,and its’contribution rate to the runoff change reaches 60%.