| 气候变化对京津唐地区水资源及供需平衡的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 王建生,张世法.气候变化对京津唐地区水资源及供需平衡的影响[J].水科学进展,1996,7(1):26-36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王建生 张世法 |
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| 作者单位： | 水利部南京水文水资源研究所 南京 210024 |
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| 基金项目： | “八五”国家重点科技攻关项目(85-913-03-03) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据大气环流模型(GCMs)输出的未来气候变化情景,结合历史资料的诊断分析,应用建立的流域水文模型及水资源利用综合评价模型,研究了气候变化对京津唐地区水资源数量和时空变化的影响。在地区未来经济发展及部门用水量预测的基础上,分析了气候变化对供水、需水和部门缺水的影响以及经济损失。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水资源供需平衡 影响评价 京津唐 |
| 收稿时间： | 1994-06-23 |
Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Jing-Jin-Tang Region |
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| Wang Jiansheng,Zhang Shifa,Huang Guobiao,Li Jiangqiang,Mao Fenglian.Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Jing-Jin-Tang Region[J].Advances in Water Science,1996,7(1):26-36. |
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| Authors: | Wang Jiansheng Zhang Shifa Huang Guobiao Li Jiangqiang Mao Fenglian |
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| Institution: | Nanjing Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing 210024 |
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| Abstract: | The effect of global climate change on water resources of Jing-Jin-Tang region in North China was studied using basin hydrological model and the comprehensive evaluation model for the water resources utilization of the region,diagnostic analysis of historic data was made and the GCMs output of climate change scenarios in the future was adopted. The study includes the impact of climate change on water resources quantity and its temporal and spatial variation and on water supply,water demand and sectoral water deficit in the region. The possible economic loss due to climate change impact was estimated. |
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| Keywords: | climate change water resources impact evaluation adaptation strategy Jing-Jin-Tang |
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