中国东北洮儿河流域过去50年气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响（英文）

Taoer River Basin, which is located in the west of Northeast China, is an agropastoral ecotone. In recent years, the hydrological cycle and water resources have changed significantly with the deterioration of the environment. Many water problems such as river blanking, wetland shrinking and salinization have occurred in this region. All of these phenomena were directly caused by changes in stream flow under climate variability and human activities. In light of the situation, the impact of climate variability and human activities on stream flow should be identified immediately to identify the primary driving factors of basin hydrological processes. To achieve this, statistical tests were applied to identify trends in variation and catastrophe points in mean annual stream flow from 1961 to 2011. A runoff sensitive coefficients method and a SIMHYD model were applied to assess the impacts of stream flow variation. The following conclusions were found: 1) The years 1985 and 2000 were confirmed to be catastrophe points in the stream flow series. Thus, the study period could be divided into three periods, from 1961 to 1985(Period I), 1986 to 2000(Period II) and 2001 to 2011(Period III). 2) Mean annual observed stream flow was 31.54 mm in Period I, then increased to 65.60 mm in Period II and decreased to 2.92 mm in Period III. 3) Using runoff sensitive coefficients, the contribution of climate variability was 41.93% and 43.14% of the increase in stream flow during Periods II and III, suggesting that the contribution of human activities to the increase was 58.07% and 56.86%, respectively. 4) Climate variability accounted for 42.57% and 44.30% of the decrease in stream flow, while human activities accounted for 57.43% and 55.70% of the decrease, according to the SIMHYD model. 5) In comparison of these two methods, the primary driving factors of stream flow variation could be considered to be human activities, which contributed about 15% more than climate variability. It is hoped that these conclusions will benefit future regional planning and sustainable development.     

潮河上游降水- 径流关系演变及 人类活动的影响分析

以潮河密云水库上游流域为研究对象, 利用双累积曲线将1961~2005 年期间年降水- 径 流关系演变划分为三个阶段: 1961~1978, 1979~1993, 1994~2005。第二和第三阶段相对第一阶段 而言, 平均年径流有较大幅度的减少, 年径流对降水的响应程度在减弱。与此相对应, 进入1980 年代后, 流域内的人类活动强度在增加, 主要表现为小水库、塘坝等水利设施的大规模建成并投 入使用, 以及农垦和造林等土地利用活动导致耕地和林地面积的增加。人类活动使得流域总蒸发 和入渗增加, 从而改变水量平衡, 径流对降水的响应变得迟缓, 减少流域总径流; 不同降水年型降 水- 径流的关系表现出很大差异, 人类活动对枯水年份年径流的影响相对较大。     

气候变化和人类活动对信江流域径流影响模拟

以1960―1990年为基准期、1991―2005年为影响期,使用HSPF（Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran）水文模型定量分析了影响期气候变化和人类活动对信江流域径流的影响及其各自的贡献率。结果表明：1）相对于1960―1990年,1991―1995、1996―2000年的年平均径流深分别增加了271.9和246.3 mm,2001―2005年的年平均径流深减少64.1 mm。其中,气候变化对径流的影响分量在65.6%~88.0%之间,人类活动对径流的影响分量在12.0%~34.4%之间。2）人类活动对极值流量有影响。在影响期,年最大7 d平均流量和最大15 d平均流量模拟值大于对应的实测极值流量。3）在气候变化因子中,流域降水量的增加,是引起20世纪90年代信江流域径流显著增大的主要原因,其次是蒸发量的下降;人类活动包括植树造林、城市化以及水利工程修建,是影响流域径流变化的次要原因。     

60年来洞庭湖区进出湖径流特征分析

采用集中度与集中期、M-K趋势检验法、变差系数法等方法对洞庭湖入湖径流河流（荆江三口、湖南四水）和出湖径流（城陵矶）年径流量序列进行分析。结果显示：① 洞庭湖区径流集中期为每年6~7月份,最大径流出现时间为6月底7月初;径流集中期合成向量方向介于103.2~190.2°之间,均能够反映各河流进出湖径流量最大值出现的月份。② 径流变差系数介于0.194~0.761之间,说明径流年际变率大。各河流径流极值比均在0.6以上,径流量衰减较为明显。③ 从径流的丰枯交替规律来看,湖南四水水量分配相对较为平均。荆江三口以藕池口丰水年和枯水年概率最大,分别占到32.79%和57.38%,径流年际变化较为剧烈,不利于水资源的合理利用。     

气候变化和人类活动对汾河流域径流情势影响分析

在人类活动和气候变化的影响下,汾河入黄径流量锐减,加剧了山西省水资源短缺的现状,并引起生态环境的恶化,同时入黄径流量的减少致使黄河干流流量的减少,加剧了黄河中下游的水资源短缺。以汾河流域为研究区,采用水文变异诊断系统分析了汾河流域入黄控制站河津站1956-2012年的径流情势的变化情况,入黄径流有显著下降的趋势,并且在1971年左右发生了突变减少。然后采用多元分析方法,分析造成径流突变减少的影响因子,其径流受到降水量、潜在蒸散发量和人类活动引起的流域属性改变的影响。随后采用Budyko公式分析其敏感性,在相对较长的时间尺度上,气候变化对径流的影响比人类活动更加敏感。最后采用累计斜率法分析上述参数对径流的影响比率,得到径流量受降水量、潜在蒸散发量和流域属性的影响比率分别为16.29%、-4.86%和88.57%。     

50年来秦岭金钱河流域水文特征及其对降水变化的响应

运用集中度和集中期、Kendall秩相关系数、R/S分析法、降水—径流双累积曲线模型及其他数理统计方法,分析了金钱河流域径流的变化特征,探讨了年际、季节及月尺度上径流变化的趋势并预测了未来趋势,用集中期指标反映了径流对降水响应的滞后效应,并定量分析了降水变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:50 a来径流量呈现出显著的递减趋势(p<0.05),递减率为34.33 m3(/s 10a),Hurst指数H=0.669>0.5,表明未来的一段时间内变化趋势与现在相同;1~12月各月径流均表现为下降趋势。流域内径流对降水的响应存在滞后效应,50 a径流对降水平均每年滞后23.6 d,且滞后天数具有明显上升趋势。50 a来径流系数呈极显著减小趋势,降水量转化为径流的部分在逐年减少,被植物截留、填洼、入渗和蒸发的部分增加;径流发生突变后比突变前径流系数降低了35.2%。50 a来降水变化对径流变化的影响率为53.4%,高于人类活动影响率46.6%,是导致径流变化的主要原因,人类活动为次要原因。     

1961-2005年水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响(英文)

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area,the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961-2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station(Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations.Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method.The referenced period(1961-1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period(1981-2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961-2005 applying double accumulative curve method,mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique.Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model,impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively.The major results could be summarized as follows:(1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s,the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970.(2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities.(3) During 1981-1990,1991-2000,2001-2005 and 1981-2005,the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108,0.28×108,1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%,7.13%,40.71% and 23.79% accordingly.Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.     

Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961–2005

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area, the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961–2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station (Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations. Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method. The referenced period (1961–1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period (1981–2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961–2005 applying double accumulative curve method, mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique. Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model, impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s, the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970. (2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities. (3) During 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2005 and 1981–2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108, 0.28×108, 1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%, 7.13%, 40.71% and 23.79% accordingly. Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.     

Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961–2005

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area, the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961–2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station (Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations. Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method. The referenced period (1961–1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period (1981–2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961–2005 applying double accumulative curve method, mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique. Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model, impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s, the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970. (2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities. (3) During 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2005 and 1981–2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×10⁸, 0.28×10⁸, 1.10×10⁸ and 0.79×10⁸ m³ respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%, 7.13%, 40.71% and 23.79% accordingly. Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.     

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Water Suitability in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Tao’er River Area

Due to the impact of climate change and human activities, the upper and middle reaches of the Tao’er River have become an ecologically sensitive area in Northeast China. It is important to evaluate the contributions of climate change and human activities to water suitability in the Tao’er River area. From the perspective of water and heat balance, the water suitability index (c_r) was used to analyze the water suitability of the upper and middle reaches of the river. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, moving t-test and cumulative anomaly methods were used to detect abrupt changes in Taonan station runoff from 1961 to 2012. Three inflexion years were detected. Thus, the entire time period was divided into four periods: 1961-1974, 1975-1983, 1984-1998, and 1999-2012. In order to estimate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) was adopted. Finally, the contribution of climate change and human activity to c_r was transformed from the contribution of climate change and human activity to runoff by the sensitivity coefficient method and SCRCQ method. The results showed that the water suitability index (c_r) had a decreasing trend 1961-2012. Factors influencing c_r, such as net radiation and runoff, also exhibited a decreasing trend, while precipitation exhibited an increasing trend over the past 52 years. The trends of c_r, net radiation and runoff were obvious, which passed the Mann-kendall test of significance at α=0.05. Human activities were the main factors that affected runoff, although the degree of impact was different at different times. During the past 52 years, the biggest contributor to the change in c_r was precipitation.     

气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀上游水源区径流的影响

白洋淀是华北平原最大的湖泊湿地,对维持华北平原生态平衡具有极其重要的作用。近年来,白洋淀流域水源减少已经引起了严重的生态环境问题,本文以唐河上游流域为例,根据流域内1960-2008 年水文气象数据,采用气候弹性系数和水文模拟方法,研究了气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀上游水源区径流量的影响。结果表明：年径流下降趋势显著,下降速率为1.7 mm/a,且径流在1980 年前后发生了突变;气候变化对唐河上游流域径流减少的贡献率为38%~40%,人类活动对径流的减少起主导作用,为60%~62%。为维持白洋淀的生态功能,必须保证一定的最小生态需水量,开展湿地生态用水调度与监管。     

1961—2010年讨赖河山区径流变化特征及其驱动因素

以1961—2010年讨赖河山区气温、降水和径流资料为基础,综合运用线性趋势、距平百分比、重标极差、Mann-Kendall突变检测、小波变换和多元线性回归等多种数理分析方法,研究了讨赖河山区径流的年内和年际变化规律,并探讨了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：径流年内分配极不均匀且呈单峰型分布,汛期径流占年径流的比重为62.11%。径流经历了“丰-枯-丰-枯”4次波动,在1984年发生由多到少的显著性突变,但整体呈不显著减少趋势且具有持久性。径流在22年准周期上振荡最为明显,经历了“少-多-少-多-少-多-少”7次循环交替,2010—2015年径流可能再次偏多。近50年来山区气温呈“稳定波动-快速上升”变化,降水量呈显著增加趋势,但山区降水转化为径流的比例减少。气温升高和降水量增加引起的蒸散发增加,同时气候变化和人类活动共同作用下的地表覆盖类型的变化均对径流变化产生影响。     

气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀水源区径流的影响(英文)

As the largest wetland in the North China Plain(NCP),the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP.In the past few decades,the decreasing streamflow in the Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate variability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmental issues.In this study,we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake,based on analyses of hydrologic changes of the upper Tanghe river catchment(a sub-basin of the Baiyangdian Basin) from 1960 to 2008.Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities.The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly(P>0.05) by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identified around the year 1980.The quantification results indicated that climate variations accounted for 38%-40% of decreased streamflow,while human activities accounted for 60%-62%.Therefore,the effect of human activities played a dominant role on the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake.To keep the ecosystem health of the Baiyangdian Lake,we suggest that minimum ecological water demand and integrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.     

基于Budyko假设和分形理论的水沙变化归因识别——以北洛河流域为例

全球气候变化及人类活动深刻影响了区域水文过程,进行水沙变化归因识别对流域生态保护和高质量发展尤为重要。基于Budyko假设和分形理论,采用弹性系数法,对北洛河流域上（丘陵沟壑区）、中（土石山林—高塬沟壑区）、下游（渭北旱塬农区）3种不同地貌和植被类型区1959—2019年的水、沙通量变化进行归因分析。结果表明,北洛河上、中、下游径流量均显著减少,由20世纪60年代的35 mm、32 mm、34 mm,减少到21世纪10年代的19 mm、24 mm、6 mm,60 a减少率分别为0.3 mm a^-1、0.2 mm a^-1、0.4 mm a^-1。上游输沙量极显著减少,中游降低趋势不显著,下游显著减少,由20世纪60年代的99×10⁶ t、8×10⁶ t、3×10⁶ t,减少到21世纪10年代的10×10⁶ t、3×10⁶ t、0.3×10⁶ t,60 a减少率分别为1.5×10⁶ t a^-1、0.04×10⁶ t a^-1、0.1×10⁶ t a^-1。20世纪70年代以来,上游径流变化逐渐受人类活动影响,且影响程度逐渐增强,21世纪10年代人类活动贡献率达66.3%;气候变化是中游径流变化的主控因子,21世纪10年代降雨和潜在蒸散发的贡献率分别为77.0%和20.2%;下游径流减少主要为人类活动影响,21世纪10年代其贡献率为64.3%。对比20世纪60年代流域输沙量变化始终受人类活动主导,21世纪10年代人类活动对上、中、下游输沙量减少的贡献率分别为80.7%、59.2%和92.7%。上游人类活动对输沙量减少的贡献中,退耕还林等沟坡措施和沟道工程措施分别为39.0%、42.7%,中、下游人类活动贡献的估算结果反映出高植被覆盖区和农区汲水灌溉对区域水、沙的影响特征。     

气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响

作为联结大气圈和地圈的纽带,水文循环同时承受气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）的双重影响,然而大多数的水文响应研究主要关注未来气候变化对径流的影响,忽略了未来LUCC的作用。因此,本文的研究目的是评估未来气候变化和LUCC对径流的共同影响。首先采用2种全球气候模式（BCC-CSM1.1和BNU-ESM）输出,基于DBC降尺度模型得到未来气候变化情景;然后,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来LUCC情景;最后,通过设置不同的气候和LUCC情景组合,采用SWAT模型模拟汉江流域的未来径流过程,定量评估气候变化和LUCC对径流的影响。结果表明：① 未来时期汉江流域的年降水量、日最高、最低气温相较于基准期（1966—2005年）,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下,分别增加4.0%、1.8 ℃、1.6 ℃和3.7%、2.5 ℃、2.3 ℃;② 2010—2050年间,流域内林地和建设用地的面积占比将分别增加2.8%和1.2%,而耕地和草地面积占比将分别减少1.5%和2.5%;③ 与单一气候变化或LUCC情景相比,气候变化和LUCC共同影响下的径流变化幅度最大,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下未来时期年平均径流分别增加5.10%、2.67%,且气候变化对径流的影响显著大于LUCC。本文的研究结果将有助于维护未来气候变化和LUCC共同影响下汉江流域的水资源规划与管理。     

气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域蓝水绿水影响研究

以渭河流域为研究对象,探讨了1980~2009年气候变化和人类活动对蓝绿水资源的影响。结果表明：① 研究时段内,在气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下,蓝水流、绿水流和绿水储量分别下降了23.56 mm/a、39.41 mm/a和17.98 mm/a,中北部的蓝水流和绿水储量呈现增加的趋势,流域上游地区的绿水流呈现下降趋势。② 归因分析表明,蓝水流、绿水流和绿水储量在气候变化驱动下分别下降了13.17 mm/a、44.99 mm/a和22.79 mm/a;土地利用/覆盖变化则导致蓝水流和绿水流分别减少0.42 mm/a和0.37 mm/a,绿水储量增加了0.79 mm/a;而农业灌溉使蓝水流减少了9.97 mm/a,绿水流和绿水储量分别增加了5.95 mm/a和4.02 mm/a。③ 气候变化导致研究区东南部绿水系数呈现增加趋势,而泾河流域绿水系数呈现减小趋势。同时,土地利用/覆盖变化使得东南部的一些子流域绿水系数呈减小的趋势,而在加入农业灌溉情景后,平原地区灌区绿水系数呈明显的上升趋势。     

近50年鄱阳湖流域径流变化特征研究

利用鄱阳湖流域1955-2003年3个主要水文站(外洲、李家渡、梅港)月径流实测资料,采用统计方法和小波方法,分析近50年该流域径流的年内、年际和周期变化特征.结果表明:鄱阳湖流域年内最大径流主要出现在4月、5月或6月;就季节变化而言,春季径流量最大,夏季次之,秋季和冬季较小.径流年际变化在开始较长时段呈增长趋势,1998年出现转折,之后递减,下降速度略低于前期增长速度.外洲等3水文站存在25～26 a的第一主周期,8 a和3～4 a的次主周期,周期变化基本一致.通过对相应影响因素的分析,发现该流域径流变化是气候、流域覆被和水利工程等多种因素共同作用的结果,而气候因素中的降水和蒸发起着主要作用.     

黄河中游流域环境要素对水沙变异的影响

目前 ,黄河中游地区流域的水沙变化主要以水文法和水保法研究为主。由于黄河中游具有明显的自然地带性分布特征 ,流域系统的水沙过程受到环境要素的综合影响。本文根据黄河中游河口镇至龙门区间已控一级支流的测站资料 ,采用地理环境要素法分析水沙变异及成因。研究表明 ,河龙区间流域径流量和输沙量与地理环境因子的影响密切相关。 2 0世纪 70年代以来 ,降雨减水减沙作用不断减小 ,随着水土保持措施的提高 ,人类活动减水减沙所占比重不断增大。 70年代与 80年代气候波动和人类活动影响的平均减水减沙作用分别为5 3 4 %、 2 8 6 %和 4 6 6 %、 71 4 %。     

青藏高原年楚河流域径流变化特征分析

基于青藏高原河流年楚河1961-2000年天然径流量资料,选用Mann-Kendal分析方法和小波分析等方法对年楚河径流变化特征进行研究。结果表明：年楚河流域径流量年际变化相对平稳,年内分配极不均衡。丰水季节与枯水季节径流量相差悬殊,6-9月径流量占全年65%,最大月径流量占全年百分比达24.56%;在1961-2000年中,年楚河径流量呈现显著增加趋势,在1985年左右径流量发生突变性增加;日喀则和江孜两站5-8年左右时间尺度的周期震荡最显著,其次10-15年左右时间尺度的周期震荡也较为显著,两站径流量变化的主周期分别为5年和7年,次周期分别为13和12年。年楚河流域气温升高引起冰川融水增加可能是年楚河径流量增加的主要原因。     

气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究

本文结合资料分析和文献阅读,对全球气候变化背景下的中亚天山山区水文、水资源变化进行了讨论分析。在全球升温滞缓背景下,中亚天山山区在过去的10余年,气温却一直处于高位态波动状态;气候变暖及持续高位态波动加剧了山区冰川和积雪等固态水体的消融,导致山区降雪率降低,天山山区降雪率从1960-1998年的11%~24%降低到2000年以来的9%~21%,有97.52%的冰川表现为退缩状态,水储量呈明显减少趋势,减小幅度约为-3.72 mm/a;气候变暖直接影响区域水循环和水系统的稳定性,引起径流补给方式和水资源数量的改变,加大了水资源时空分布的不确定性。天山山区在短时期内因冰雪融水增多,会出现径流量增加现象。但在未来气候持续变暖、降水条件维持不变的条件下,河川径流量将会出现减少趋势。