Analysis of sea surface height variabilities in the Kuroshio Current region by using Geosat altimeter data

INTRODUCTIONBeing a current of high temperature and high salinity, the Kuroshio carries a large amount ofheat from low latitude tropical ocean to high latitude ocean, and plays an imPOrtant role in theheat balance in East Asia. The variability of the Kurosl,io can affect the climate of East Asia, aswell as the ocean environment and the fishery resources. A lot of studies showed that the variabilitiies of the Kuroshio were related to the global changes especially to the onset of ENSO.…     

有界赤道大洋波包解及其年际年代际变率

Linearized shallow water perturbation equations with approximation in an equatorial β plane are used to obtain the analytical solution of wave packet anomalies in the upper bounded equatorial ocean. The main results are as follows. The wave packet is a superposition of eastward travelling Kelvin waves and westward travelling Rossby waves with the slowest speed, and satisfies the boundary conditions of eastern and western coasts, respectively.The decay coefficient of this solution to the north and south sides of the equator is inversely proportional only to the phase velocity of Kelvin waves in the upper water. The oscillation frequency of the wave packet, which is also the natural frequency of the ocean, is proportional to its mode number and the phase velocity of Kelvin waves and is inversely proportional to the length of the equatorial ocean in the east-west direction. The flow anomalies of the wave packet of Mode 1 most of the time appear as zonal flows with the same direction. They reach the maximum at the center of the equatorial ocean and decay rapidly away from the equator, manifested as equatorially trapped waves. The flow anomalies of the wave packet of Mode 2 appear as the zonal flows with the same direction most of the time in half of the ocean, and are always 0 at the center of the entire ocean which indicates stagnation, while decaying away from the equator with the same speed as that of Mode 1. The spatial structure and oscillation period of the wave packet solution of Mode 1 and Mode 2 are consistent with the changing periods of the surface spatial field and time coefficient of the first and second modes of complex empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis of flow anomalies in the actual equatorial ocean. This indicates that the solution does exist in the real ocean, and that El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole(IOD) are both related to Mode 2.After considering the Indonesian throughflow, we can obtain the length of bounded equatorial ocean by taking the sum of that of the tropical Indian Ocean and the tropical Pacific Ocean, thus this wave packet can also explain the decadal variability(about 20 a) of the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans.     

The ocean's role in climate variability

Because of its vast volume and heat capacity, the ocean contains most of the memory of the earth's ocean - atmosphere coupled system. It has been suggested that the ocean may delay global warming by absorbing large amounts of heat, that it may cause ab- rupt climate change due to its disrupted thermohaline circulation, and that it may set the time-scales for various climate oscilla- tions. Although the slow pace and persistence of oceanic variations give hope to long-range prediction, there still exist large uncer- tainties in climate predictability. Presently available observations and models are generally inadequate for studying and predicting long-term climate changes. However, some short-term fluctuations such as ENSO have been well studied and shown to be highly predictable even with simplified models.     

Heat oscillation in the upper ocean of the southern South China Sea

Data used in this study are temperature/depth profiles taken over the upper 400 m of the ocean in the southern South China Sea (4°-14° N, 106°-120° E) for the period 1961-1973. The data are analyzed on the grid 2 (latitude) by 2 (longitude) in space and bimonthly in time. The vertically averaged temperature (TAV) over the upper 100 m of the ocean is calculated as the estimate of the heat content in the upper ocean.The TAV is cooler in the northwest region of the study area and warmer in the southeast in the annual and seasonal mean figures. The first EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) of anomalous TAV accounts for 41 % of the total variance for the period 1961-1973. The time function associated with it displays a significant interannual changes in the heat content, with 2-4 a oscillation period and associated with the ENSO events. During ENSO event TAV increases with the tendency of increasing towards equator along the basin. This anomalous states also exist in the water layers below 100 m depth. T     

The influence of ENSO on sea surface temperature variations in the China seas

Positive SST anomalies usually appear in remote ocean such as the China seas during an ENSO event.By analyzing the monthly data of HadISST from 1950 to 2007,it shows that the interannual component of SST anomalies peak approximately 10 months after SST anomalies peak in the eastern equatorial Pacific.As the ENSO event progresses,the positive SST anomalies spread throughout the China seas and eastward along the Kuroshio extension.Atmospheric reanalysis data demonstrate that changes in the net surface heat flux entering into the China seas are responsible for the SST variability.During El Ni o,the western north Pacific anticyclone is generated,with anomalous southwester lies prevailing along the East Asian coast.This anticyclone reduces the mean surface wind speed which decreases the surface heat flux and then increases the SST.The delays between the developing of this anticyclone and the south Indian Ocean anticyclone with approximately 3–6 months cause the 2–3 months lag of the surface heat flux between the China seas and the Indian Ocean.The northwestern Pacific anticyclone is the key process bridging the warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and that in the China seas.     

Reconstruction of eddies by assimilating satellite altimeter data into Princeton Ocean Model

An optimal interpolation assimilation model for satellite altimetry data is developed based on Princeton Ocean Model (POM), which is applied in a quasi-global domain, by the method of isotropic correlation between sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea temperature anomaly. The perfor- mance of this assimilation model is validated by the modeled results of SLA and the current patterns. Comparisons between modeling and satellite data show that both the magnitudes and distribution patterns of the simulated SLA are improved by assimilation. The most signiˉcant improvement is that meso-scale systems, e.g., eddies, are well reconstructed. The evolution of an eddy located in the northwest Paciˉc Ocean is traced by using the assimilation model. Model results show that during three months the eddy migrated southwestward for about 6 degrees before merging into the Kuroshio. The three dimensional structure of this eddy on 12 August 2001 is further analyzed. The strength of this warm, cyclonic eddy decreases with the increase of depth. The eddy shows di?erent horizontal patterns at di?erent layers, and the SLA and temperature ˉelds agree with each other well. This study suggests that this kind of data assimilation is economic and reliable for eddy reconstruction, and can be used as a promising technique in further studies of ocean eddies as well as other ˉne circulation structures.     

中国科学院气候系统模式模拟的ENSO循环

On the basis of more than 200-year control run, the performance of the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS-ESM-C) in simulating the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) cycle is evaluated, including the onset, development and decay of the ENSO. It is shown that, the model can reasonably simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability of sea surface temperature(SST) in the tropical Pacific, as well as the seasonal phase-locking of the ENSO. The model also captures two prerequisites for the El Ni?o onset, i.e., a westerly anomaly and a warm SST anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific. Owing to too strong forcing from an extratropical meridional wind, however, the westerly anomaly in this region is largely overestimated. Moreover, the simulated thermocline is much shallower with a weaker slope. As a result, the warm SST anomaly from the western Pacific propagates eastward more quickly, leading to a faster development of an El Ni?o. During the decay stage, owing to a stronger El Ni?o in the model, the secondary Gill-type response of the tropical atmosphere to the eastern Pacific warming is much stronger, thereby resulting in a persistent easterly anomaly in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, a cold anomaly in the warm pool appears as a result of a lifted thermocline via Ekman pumping. Finally, an El Ni?o decays into a La Ni?a through their interactions. In addition, the shorter period and larger amplitude of the ENSO in the model can be attributed to a shallower thermocline in the equatorial Pacific, which speeds up the zonal redistribution of a heat content in the upper ocean.     

Air-sea interactions associated with tropospheric biennial oscillation in South China Sea summer monsoon and their effects on El Niño-Southern Oscillation

The South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) behaves with prominent climate variability from the intraseasonal to interdecadal time scales. On the interannual time scale, the biennial variability (so-called tropospheric biennial oscillation, TBO) is as important as the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period. Some observed data sets, including reanalysis data, are used to explore the associated air-sea interactive physical processes and how the SCSSM TBO affects the ENSO. The results show that the shearing vorticity induced by the north Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone both contribute to the TBO in the SCSSM. The results also indicate that the ENSO has a weak effect on the SCSSM TBO, whereas the latter affects the ENSO to some extent.     

Impacts of a wind stress and a buoyancy flux on the seasonal variation of mixing layer depth in the South China Sea

The seasonal variation of mixing layer depth(MLD) in the ocean is determined by a wind stress and a buoyance flux.A South China Sea(SCS) ocean data assimilation system is used to analyze the seasonal cycle of its MLD.It is found that the variability of MLD in the SCS is shallow in summer and deep in winter,as is the case in general.Owing to local atmosphere forcing and ocean dynamics,the seasonal variability shows a regional characteristic in the SCS.In the northern SCS,the MLD is shallow in summer and deep in winter,affected coherently by the wind stress and the buoyance flux.The variation of MLD in the west is close to that in the central SCS,influenced by the advection of strong western boundary currents.The eastern SCS presents an annual cycle,which is deep in summer and shallow in winter,primarily impacted by a heat flux on the air-sea interface.So regional characteristic needs to be cared in the analysis about the MLD of SCS.     

Are trends in SeaWiFS chlorophyll time-series unusual relative to historic variability

For selected locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, we compared surface ocean chlorophyll time series extracted from SeaWiFS imagery from 1997–2004 with the results of an ocean coupled circulation and biogeochemical model covering the period 1958–2004. During the 1997–2004 time period, linear trends in model and satellite time series were significantly correlated at most of the 44 sites we studied. Eleven sites were selected for further study, and we used the longer time series of the model to assess whether trends observed during the SeaWiFS period at these 11 sites were unusual in relation to those observed over the longer historical period covered by the model. The results show that the trends observed during the SeaWiFS period were not unusual and fell well within the range in magnitude of linear trends observed in other 8-year periods of model output. This result implies that the SeaWiFS satellite ocean color time series is not yet sufficiently long, on its own, to directly observe any long term changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll that may be occurring in the surface waters of the open ocean as a result of increased ocean stratification linked to global climate changed.     

Impact of observational MJO forcing on ENSO predictability in the Zebiak-Cane model: PartⅠ.Effect on the maximum prediction error

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) as external forcing on El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) predictability is studied. The observational data are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform(CWT) and then used to extract MJO signals, which are added into the model to get a new model. After the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP) method has been used, the initial errors which can evolve into maximum prediction error, model errors and their join errors are gained and then the Nino 3 indices and spatial structures of three kinds of errors are investigated. The results mainly show that the observational MJO has little impact on the maximum prediction error of ENSO events and the initial error affects much greater than model error caused by MJO forcing. These demonstrate that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the adaptive data assimilation of the ENSO forecast and contribute to the ENSO target observation.     

南海北部珊瑚生长率对4.2 ka气候事件的记录

The 4.2 ka event that occurred during the period from 4 500–3 900 a BP was characterized by cold and dry climates and resulted in the collapse of civilizations around the world. The cause of this climatic event, however, has been under debate. We collected four corals(Porites lutea) from Yongxing Island, Xisha Islands, South China Sea, dated them with the U-series method, and measured the annual coral growth rates using X-ray technology. The dating results showed that the coral growth ages were from 4 500–3 900 a BP, which coincide well with the period of the4.2 ka event. We then reconstructed annual sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) variations based on the coral growth rates. The growth rate-based SSTA results showed that the interdecadal SSTA from 4 500–3 900 a BP was lower than that during modern times(1961–2008 AD). A spectral analysis showed that the SSTA variations from4 500–3 900 a BP were under the influence of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) activities. From 4 500–4 100 a BP, the climate exhibited La Ni?a-like conditions with weak ENSO intensity and relatively stable and lower SSTA amplitudes. From 4 100–3 900 a BP, the climate underwent a complicated period of ENSO variability and showed alternating El Ni?o-or La Ni?a-like conditions at interdecadal time scales and large SSTA amplitudes. We speculate that during the early and middle stages of the 4.2 ka event, the cold climate caused by weak ENSO activities largely weakened social productivity. Then, during the end stages of the 4.2 ka event, the repeated fluctuations in the ENSO intensity caused frequent extreme weather events, resulting in the collapse of civilizations worldwide. Thus, the new evidence obtained from our coral records suggests that the 4.2 ka event as well as the related collapse of civilizations were very likely driven by ENSO variability.     

The relationship between the canonical ENSO and the phase transition of the Antarctic oscillation at the quasi-quadrennial timescale

A correlation analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO) at the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) timescale.It is found that the cold tongue index (CTI) and the AAO index (AAOI) are negatively correlated with about a 7-month lead-time,while they are positively correlated with about a 15-month lag-time.To further explore this relationship,complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is employed in the QQ sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies from 1951 to 2002.The results indicate that,during the ENSO cycle,there exists one kind of global tropical wave of wavenumber 1 (GTW1) propagating eastward.With the traveling of GTW1,the tropical SLP anomaly tends to intrude into the southern mid-latitudes.Accordingly,three strong signals travel synchronously along the circumSouth-Pacific path,and a relatively weak signal extends eastward and poleward over the South Ocean in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector.Following the propagation of these signals,the AAO phase tends to be reversed progressively.As a result,there exists an evident lead-lag correlation between CTI and AAOI.It can be concluded that ENSO plays a key role in the phase transition of AAO at the QQ timescale.It is also noticed that this regular relationship is only evident in the canonical ENSO events,for which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend westward from the tropical eastern Pacific.On the other hand,the similar relationships are not found among those atypical ENSO events for which SST anomalies spread eastward from the central Pacific,such as the 1982-1983 ENSO event.     

“Trends” and variations of global oceanic evaporation data sets from remote sensing

The variability in global oceanic evaporation data sets was examined for the period 1988-2000. These data sets are satellite estimates based on bulk aerodynamic formulations and include the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Flux version 2 （ GSSTF2）, the Japanese-ocean flux using remote sensing observations （J-OFURO）, and the Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite version 2 （HOAPS2）. The National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis is also included for comparison. An increase in global average surface latent heat flux （SLHF） can be observed in all the data sets. Empirical mode decomposition （EMD） shows long-term increases that started around 1990 for all remote sensing data sets. The effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 is clearly evident in HOAPS2 but is independent of the longterm increase. Linear regression analyses show increases of 9.4%, 13.0%, 7. 3%, and 3.9% for GSSTF2, J-OFURO, HOAPS2 and NCEP, for the periods of the data sets. Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analyses show that the pattern of the first EOF of all data sets is consistent with a decadal variation associated with the enhancement of the tropical Hadley circulation, which is supported by other satellite observations. The second EOF of all four data sets is an ENSO mode, and the correlations between their time series and an SO1 are 0.74, 0.71,0.59, and 0.61 for GSSTF2, J-OFURO, HOAPS2, and NCEP in that order. When the Hadley modes are removed from the remote sensing data, the residue global increases are reduced to 2.2% , 7. 3%, and 〈 1% for GSSTF2, J-OFURO and HOAPS, respectively. If the ENSO mode is used as a calibration standard for the data sets, the Hadley mode is at least comparable to, if not larger than, the ENSO mode during our study period.     

The long-term trend of the sea surface wind speed and the wave height (wind wave, swell, mixed wave)in global ocean during the last 44 a

Utilizing the 45 a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)reanalysis wave data(ERA-40),the long-term trend of the sea surface wind speed and(wind wave,swell,mixed wave)wave height in the global ocean at grid point 1.5×1.5 during the last 44 a is analyzed.It is discovered that a majority of global ocean swell wave height exhibits a significant linear increasing trend(2–8 cm/decade),the distribution of annual linear trend of the significant wave height(SWH)has good consistency with that of the swell wave height.The sea surface wind speed shows an annually linear increasing trend mainly concentrated in the most waters of Southern Hemisphere westerlies,high latitude of the North Pacific,Indian Ocean north of 30 S,the waters near the western equatorial Pacific and low latitudes of the Atlantic waters,and the annually linear decreasing mainly in central and eastern equator of the Pacific,Juan.Fernandez Archipelago,the waters near South Georgia Island in the Atlantic waters.The linear variational distribution characteristic of the wind wave height is similar to that of the sea surface wind speed.Another find is that the swell is dominant in the mixed wave,the swell index in the central ocean is generally greater than that in the offshore,and the swell index in the eastern ocean coast is greater than that in the western ocean inshore,and in year-round hemisphere westerlies the swell index is relatively low.     

Hilbert transform and its application to modulation of capillary gravity waves

INTRODUCFIONlt is well known that the stability and interaction of nonlinear waves lead to modulations ofwavenumber and frequency, as well as arnplitude, with the frequency dePendent on bothwavenumber and arnplitude (Witham, l974; Philips, l98l ). These medulations are not justtheoretical curiossities but have important conSequences in oceanography and meteorology, aswell as naval architecture and ocean engineering (honguer-Higgins, l980).By means of Hilbert transfOrm technique, Melvill…     

基于浮游植物吸收的海洋初级生产力模型的不确定性分析

Satellite-derived phytoplankton pigment absorption(a_(ph)) has been used as a key predictor of phytoplankton photosynthetic efficiency to estimate global ocean net primary production(NPP). In this study, an a_(ph)-based NPP model(Ab PM) with four input parameters including the photosynthetically available radiation(PAR), diffuse attenuation at 490 nm(K_d(490)), euphotic zone depth(Z_(eu)) and the phytoplankton pigment absorption coefficient(a_(ph)) is compared with the chlorophyll-based model and carbon-based model. It is found that the Ab PM has significant advantages on the ocean NPP estimation compared with the chlorophyll-based model and carbonbased model. For example, Ab PM greatly outperformed the other two models at most monitoring sites and had the best accuracy, including the smallest values of RMSD and bias for the NPP estimate, and the best correlation between the observations and the modeled NPPs. In order to ensure the robustness of the model, the uncertainty in NPP estimates of the Ab PM was assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation. At first, the frequency histograms of simple difference(δ), and logarithmic difference(δ~(LOG)) between model estimates and in situ data confirm that the two input parameters(Z_(eu) and PAR) approximate the Normal Distribution, and another two input parameters(a_(ph) and K_d(490)) approximate the logarithmic Normal Distribution. Second, the uncertainty in NPP estimates in the Ab PM was assessed by using the Monte Carlo simulation. Here both the PB(percentage bias), defined as the ratio of ΔNPP to the retrieved NPP, and the CV(coefficient of variation), defined as the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean are used to indicate the uncertainty in the NPP brought by input parameter to Ab PM model. The uncertainty related to magnitude is denoted by PB and the uncertainty related to scatter range is denoted by CV.Our investigations demonstrate that PB of NPP uncertainty brought by all parameters with an annual mean of5.5% covered a range of –5%–15% for the global ocean. The PB uncertainty of Ab PM model was mainly caused by a_(ph); the PB of NPP uncertainty brought by a_(ph) had an annual mean of 4.1% for the global ocean. The CV brought by all the parameters with an annual mean of 105% covered a range of 98%–134% for global ocean. For the coastal zone of Antarctica with higher productivity, the PB and CV of NPP uncertainty brought by all parameters had annual means of 7.1% and 121%, respectively, which are significantly larger than those obtained in the global ocean. This study suggests that the NPPs estimated by Ab PM model are more accurate than others, but the magnitude and scatter range of NPP errors brought by input parameter to Ab PM model could not be neglected,especially in the coastal area with high productivity. So the improving accuracy of satellite retrieval of input parameters should be necessary. The investigation also confirmed that the SST related correction is effective for improving the model accuracy in low temperature condition.     

Responses of carbon dioxide in western tropical Pacific to 1991~1993 ENSO event

On the basis of the data of the partial pressure of CO₂ (P_CO2)and the concentration of the total dissolved CO₂(T_CO2) in surface water during the expeditions in Nov.-Dec. 1991, the world ocean circulation experiment (WOCE) and Oct. 1992-Mar. 1993, the tropical ocean-global atmosphere coupled ocean-atmosphere response experiment (TOGA COARE) in the western tropical Pacific and of the comparison with data from 1986 to 1990 TOGA expeditions and that from Japan Meteorological Agency, the response of CO₂ in surface water to ENSO event is proved. The CO₂ signals indicated that the air-sea system in the western and central tropical Pacific from 1991 to 1993, except for a short period in autumn of 1992, was in a strong state of ENSO.
The change of CO₂ in the floating stations near 2°S, 155°E from Nov. 1992 to Mar. 1993 reflected the change of currents, water mass and its thermal and salt content during the forming and developing of ENSO.     

Numerical simulation of the tropical Pacific response to equatorial wind stress anomalies

The results of the tropical Pacific response to the sudden onset of the equatorial wind stress anomalies are discussed. The ocean model is a barotropic, non-linearized one that includes reduced-gravity and an equation for the temperature of the ocean mixed-layer. The experiments are based on a state of equilibrium reached through a long running under the action of annual mean wind stress. There are two kinds of westward wind intensity regions: the whole tropical Pacific and the western tropical Pacific, which are all between latitude 6. 8癗 and 6. 8癝.In these cases, the results show that the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Eastern Pacific and the negative SST anomalies in the Western Pacific are produced, and the positive SST anomalies propagate eastward, just as those observed during the actual El Nino phenomena. The propagations of the Kelvin waves and Rossby waves in the ocean are discussed.Another experiment is also carried out in simulating the process of the decay of El Ni     

Dynamic of ENSO towards upwelling and thermal front zone in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia

The El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is a natural phenomenon that relates to the fluctuation of temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO significantly affects the ocean dynamics including upwelling event and coastal front. A recent study discovered the seasonal upwelling in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia(ECPM), which is significant to the fishery industry in this region. Thus, it is vital to have a better understanding of the influence of ENSO towards the coastal upwelling and thermal front in the ECPM. The sea surface temperature(SST) data achieved from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) aboard Aqua satellite are used in this study to observe the SST changes from 2005 to 2015. However, due to cloud cover issue, a reconstruction of data set is applied to MODIS data using the data interpolating empirical orthogonal function(DINEOF) to fill in the missing gap in the dataset based on spatial and temporal available data. Besides, a wavelet transformation analysis is done to determine the temperature fluctuation throughout the time series. The DINEOF results show the coastal upwelling in the ECPM develops in July and reaches its peak in August with a clear cold water patch off the coast. There is also a significant change of SST distribution during the El Ni?o years which weaken the coastal upwelling event along the ECPM. The wavelet transformation analysis shows the highest temperature fluctuation is in 2009–2010 which indicates the strongest El Ni?o throughout the time period. It is suggested that the El Ni?o is favourable for the stratification in water column thus it is weakening the upwelling and thermal frontal zone formation in ECPM waters.