全球变暖背景下三亚湾上升流的冷水有利于珊瑚的生存

It has been reported that global warming has negative effects on coral ecosystems in the past 50 years and the effects vary in different ocean environment. In order to make clear the coral reef status in the background of global warming along the south coast of Hainan Island of China, satellite and in situ data are used to retrieve the information of the coral reef status and surrounding environmental factors. The results show that cool water induced by upwelling along the south coast of Hainan Island is found in the area every summer month, especially in the relatively strong El Ni?o years(2002–2003 and 2005). From the NOAA satellite data, degree heating week(DHW) index does not exceed 3 in Sanya Bay even in the relatively strong El Ni?o years. By comparison of a coral reef growth rate in the Sanya Bay with respect to El Ni?o events from 1957 to 2000, coral's growth rate is relatively greater during 1972, 1991–1994 and 1998 El Ni?o event. By analyzing the environmental factors, it is found that the cool water induced by upwelling may be the main reason for protecting corals from global warming effects.     

High resolution oxygen isotope and grayscale records of a medieval fossil giant clam (Tridacna gigas) in the South China Sea：physiological and paleoclimatic implications

Mollusks are well known for their detailed recording of paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic changes in their carbonate shells. In this study, we constructed 18-year blue color intensity and oxygen isotope profiles of a 14 C dated(AD 990±40) fossil giant clam, Tridacna gigas, from Shidao Island, South China Sea. The δ18O profile of the T. gigas specimen displayed regular annual cycles and was probably controlled by seasonal variations of the climatic parameters. The blue color intensity profile showed good agreement with the δ18O series, and both had 18 clear annual cycles in accordance with the 18 visually identified annual growth bands. The annual shell growth rate determined from the blue color intensity and oxygen isotope profiles indicated that the annual shell increment of the Tridacna specimen was stable after the onset of sexual maturity. Spectral analysis of the δ18O and blue color intensity time series suggested that the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) period observed in the instrumental temperature and precipitation records of the South China Sea during the past 50 years also existed in medieval times. Our results showed that fossil giant clams could provide a good archive of historical intra-seasonal to decadal climate variations.     

中国东海和南黄海沿海平原MIS 3晚期海侵层的动力模拟研究

Abundant evidences of higher sea levels from Jiangsu and Fujian coasts have proved a marine transgression event during 30–40 ka BP, suggesting that there was a stage with high sea level and a warm climate when ice sheets shrank in the Northern Hemisphere. The duration of 30–40 ka BP spanned a period in the late Marine Isotope Stage 3(MIS 3) and was in nature an interstadial epoch during the Last Glacial period of the Quaternary. Different from the glacial period with a cold climate, this marine transgression considered as a penultimate higher sea level during the Quaternary remains a puzzle that why the evidence is contrary to the Quaternary glacial theory. It is important to understand sea level rise for these areas sensitively responding to the global changes in the future. To recognize the key issues on sea level changes, the eustatic sea level(H_S) was defined as the glaciation-climateforced sea levels, and the relative sea level change(H_R) was defined as that a sea level record was preserved in sediment that experienced multiple secondary actions of land and sea effects. On the basis as defined above, we constructed multi-level models of climate-driven glacio-eustatic changes and land-sea systems. By integrating data sets from eight borehole cores and prescribing the boundary conditions, we simulated the changes of HS and HR in the East China Sea and southern Yellow Sea areas in the late MIS 3. The marine transgression strata from the borehole core data was identified at ca. 30 m below present sea level as a result of the collective influence of ice melting water, neotectonic subsidence, sediment compaction and terrestrial sediment filling since ca. 35 ka ago,whereas the simulated relative sea-levels turned out to be –26.3––29.9 m a.s.l. The small error involved in the simulation results of ±(2.5–4.5) m demonstrated the credibility of the results. Our results indicated that sea level change in the late MIS 3 was dominated by glacial effects, in which the eustatic sea-level was between –19.2––22.1m a.s.l. The study sheds light on the nature of sea-level changes along the east coast of China in the late MIS 3 and contributes to understanding the characteristics of marine transgression under the effects of multiple complex land-sea interactions.     

Multi-proxy reconstructions of hydrological changes from continental shelf sediments in the northern South China Sea during the interval 9200–6200 cal a BP

Past hydroclimatic conditions in southern China are poorly constrained owing to the lack of high-resolution marine-sediment records. In this study, we present high-resolution geochemical and grain-size records of marine sediments from the coastal shelf of the northern South China Sea to investigate regional hydrological variations.Results suggest a warm and humid climate during the interval 9 200–7 600 cal a BP, followed by a cold and dry climate from 7 600 cal a BP to 6 500 cal a BP, and progre...     

How does the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole trigger the tropical Indian Ocean dipole via the Mascarene high？

The variation in the Indian Ocean is investigated using Hadley center sea surface temperature(SST)data during the period 1958–2010.All the first empirical orthogonal function(EOF)modes of the SST anomalies(SSTA)in different domains represent the basin-wide warming and are closely related to the Pacific El Ni o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon.Further examination suggests that the impact of ENSO on the tropical Indian Ocean is stronger than that on the southern Indian Ocean.The second EOF modes in different domains show different features.It shows a clear east-west SSTA dipole pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean(Indian Ocean dipole,IOD),and a southwest-northeast SSTA dipole in the southern Indian Ocean(Indian Ocean subtropical dipole,IOSD).It is further revealed that the IOSD is also the main structure of the second EOF mode on the whole basin-scale,in which the IOD pattern does not appear.A correlation analysis indicates that an IOSD event observed during the austral summer is highly correlated to the IOD event peaking about 9 months later.One of the possible physical mechanisms underlying this highly significant statistical relationship is proposed.The IOSD and the IOD can occur in sequence with the help of the Mascarene high.The SSTA in the southwestern Indian Ocean persists for several seasons after the mature phase of the IOSD event,likely due to the positive wind–evaporation–SST feedback mechanism.The Mascarene high will be weakened or intensified by this SSTA,which can affect the atmosphere in the tropical region by teleconnection.The pressure gradient between the Mascarene high and the monsoon trough in the tropical Indian Ocean increases(decreases).Hence,an anticyclone(cyclone)circulation appears over the Arabian Sea-India continent.The easterly or westerly anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean,inducing the onset stage of the IOD.This study shows that the SSTA associated with the IOSD can lead to the onset of IOD with the aid of atmosphere circulation and also explains why some IOD events in the tropical tend to be followed by IOSD in the southern Indian Ocean.     

南半球热带外气候变量与两种ENSO的联系

This study uses the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR) to investigate the responses of the Southern Hemisphere(SH) extratropical climate to two types of El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)—the eastern Pacific(EP) type and the central Pacific(CP) type in different seasons. The responses are denoted by the anomalies of climate variables associated with one-standard-deviation increase in the Ni?o3 or Ni?o4 index. The results show that in austral spring the differences in the ENSO-related anomaly(ERA) patterns of atmospheric circulation between the EP ENSO period(1979–1998) and CP ENSO period(1999–2010) are mainly associated with the change in the ENSO-PSA2 relationship. Such differences affect the ERA fields of surface air temperature and mixed layer temperature, and finally result in significant differences in sea-ice concentration anomalies in the Atlantic sector. In austral summer, significant correlation exists between the variations of SAM and both of the variations of Ni?o3 and Ni?o4 in 1979–1998, while the correlation between SAM and Ni?o4 disappears in 1999–2010. For all seasons, the strength of the climate ERAs depend on if there are close relationship between ENSO and the major climate variation modes of the SH extratropics. For the climate variables, the ERA patterns of surface air temperature are generally controlled by surface wind anomalies and mirrored by the mixed layer temperature anomalies. The mixed layer depth anomalies are primarily modulated by surface heat flux anomalies and occasionally by anomalous wind. There are strikingly strong anomalies of surface heat flux in the autumn of 1979–1998 related to the Ni?o3 variation, the period when there is only significant correlation between ENSO and PSA2. There are no evidence that the SH extratropical climate variability induced by Ni?o3 variations are stronger in the EP-ENSO period, and that variability induced by Ni?o4 variations are stronger in the CP-ENSO period.     

热带太平洋波浪输运与海表面温度异常关系研究

Large-scale water transport is one of the key factors that affect sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the eastern equatorial Pacific(EEP).The relationship between the wave transport in the tropical Pacific and the SSTA in the EEP is examined by different methods,including band-pass filtering,period analysis,correlation analysis,significant analysis,and empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis.We have found that the eastward shift of the wave transport anomaly in the tropical Pacific,with a period of 2 a and enhancing the transport of warm waters from the western Pacific warm pool,precedes the increase of sea surface temperature(SST) in the EEP.The wave transport and the SSTA in the EEP have a maximum correlation of 0.65 with a time-lag of 6 months(transport variation precedes the temperature).The major periods(3.7 a and 2.45 a) of the wave transport variability,as revealed by the EOF analysis,appear to be consistent with the SSTA oscillation cycle in the EEP.Based on the first occurrence of a significant SSTA in the Ni?o 3 region(5°S–5°N,90°–150°W),two types of warm events are defined.The wave transport anomalies in two types present predominantly the west anomaly in the tropical Pacific,it is that the wave transport continues transport warm water from west to east before the onset of the warm event.The impact of wave-induced water transport on the SSTA in the EEP is confirmed by the heat flux of the wave transport.The wave transport exerts significant effect on the SSTA variability in the EEP and thus is not neglectable in the further studies.     

Dynamic of ENSO towards upwelling and thermal front zone in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia

The El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is a natural phenomenon that relates to the fluctuation of temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO significantly affects the ocean dynamics including upwelling event and coastal front. A recent study discovered the seasonal upwelling in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia(ECPM), which is significant to the fishery industry in this region. Thus, it is vital to have a better understanding of the influence of ENSO towards the coastal upwelling and thermal front in the ECPM. The sea surface temperature(SST) data achieved from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) aboard Aqua satellite are used in this study to observe the SST changes from 2005 to 2015. However, due to cloud cover issue, a reconstruction of data set is applied to MODIS data using the data interpolating empirical orthogonal function(DINEOF) to fill in the missing gap in the dataset based on spatial and temporal available data. Besides, a wavelet transformation analysis is done to determine the temperature fluctuation throughout the time series. The DINEOF results show the coastal upwelling in the ECPM develops in July and reaches its peak in August with a clear cold water patch off the coast. There is also a significant change of SST distribution during the El Ni?o years which weaken the coastal upwelling event along the ECPM. The wavelet transformation analysis shows the highest temperature fluctuation is in 2009–2010 which indicates the strongest El Ni?o throughout the time period. It is suggested that the El Ni?o is favourable for the stratification in water column thus it is weakening the upwelling and thermal frontal zone formation in ECPM waters.     

Response of winter cohort abundance of Japanese common squid Todarodes pacificus to the ENSO events

The Japanese common squid Todarodes pacificus is an economically important species with one year lifespan,which is significantly influenced by climatic and environmental variability. According to the fishery data of the winter cohort of T. pacificus from 2003 to 2012, as well as environmental data and the Oceanic Ni?o index(ONI,which was defined by the sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly in the Ni?o 3.4 region), variations in the SST,chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentration, suitable spawning area(SSA) and sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) on the spawning ground of T. pacificus were examined under the El Ni?o and La Ni?a conditions. Their influences on squid abundance(defined by catch per unit effort, CPUE) were further assessed. The results showed that seasonal changes were found in SST, Chl a and SSA on the spawning ground of T. pacificus. Correlation analysis suggested that annual CPUE was significantly positively correlated with Chl a and SSA(p0.05), but had insignificant relationship with SST(p0.05). Moreover, the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events tended to dominate the changes of SSA and Chl a concentration in the key area between 25°–29°N and 122.5°–130.5°E, driving the variability of squid abundance. However, this influence varied with the intensity of each anomalous climatic event: the weak El Ni?o event occurred, the spawning ground was occupied by waters with enlarged SSA but with extremely low Chl a concentration, leading to low squid recruitment, the CPUE then decreased; the moderate intensity of El Ni?o event resulted in shrunk SSA but with high Chl a concentration on the spawning ground, the squid recruitment and CPUE increased; the moderate intensity of La Ni?a events yielded elevated SSA and high Chl a concentration on the spawning ground, the squid recruitment and CPUE dramatically increased. Our findings suggested that the ENSO events played crucial effects on the incubating and feeding conditions of the winter cohort of T. pacificus during the spawning season and ultimately affected its abundance.     

广西钦州湾晚全新世红树林演变及对海平面变化的响应

Mangroves, widely distributed along the coasts of tropical China, are influenced by Asia monsoon, relative sea level change and enhanced human activity. To predict the impacts of future climate change on mangrove ecosystems, it can be understood by reconstructing past mangrove dynamics using proxies preserved in coastal sediments. In this study, we quantitatively partitioned buried organic matter(OM) sources, collected from a vulnerable mangrove swamp in the Qinzhou Bay of northwestern South China Sea, using a ternary end-member mixing model of δ~(13)C and C:N values. Mangrove-derived OM(MOM) contribution was used as a tracer for mangrove development since 2.34 cal ka BP. This information, together with paleoclimate records(i.e.,speleothem δ~(18)O values, sea level change, grain size parameters) and human activity, was used to divide mangrove development into three stages during the late Holocene: relative flourish(2.34–1.13 cal ka BP), relative degradation(1.13–0.15 cal ka BP) and further degradation(0.15–0 cal ka BP). Before 1.13 cal ka BP, mangroves flourished with a high MOM contribution((88.9±10.6)%), corresponding to stable and high sea level under a warm and humid climate. After 1.13 cal ka BP, rapid fall in relative sea level coupled with the strengthening of the Asian winter monsoon, resulted in mangrove degradation and MOM reduction((62.4±18.9)%). Compared with air temperature and precipitation, the relative sea level fall was the main controlling factor in mangrove development before entering the Anthropocene(the time of the Industrial Revolution). After ～150 cal a BP, reclamation of mangrove swamps to shrimp ponds is the main factor causing mangrove degradation and MOM reduction.     

中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系

利用中国沿海台站潮位和中国近海及赤道太平洋的卫星测高、海表温度、风及气压资料,分析了中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系。分析结果表明:中国沿海海平面季节变化受ENSO影响明显,在厄尔尼诺事件期间,中国沿海海平面Sa分潮的振幅明显减小,其中年振幅的历史极小值均出现厄尔尼诺年,不同区域历史极小值出现的年份不同;另外,中国沿海Sa分潮的振幅对厄尔尼诺事件的响应与其强弱有关,在强事件中,响应区域和幅度较大,弱事件中,响应区域和幅度偏小。在厄尔尼诺年,中国沿海海平面多低于相邻年份,并且其年际变化存在明显的2~3a、4~7a、准9a、11a和准19a的周期,其中4~7a的周期在冬春季节震荡最显著,其震荡幅度接近2cm。中国近海海平面与赤道东太平洋区域的海表温度年际变化之间存在反相关关系,其相关系数为-0.42;同时与Nio4和Nio3.4指数序列也呈现反相关关系。针对典型的1997/1998年尼诺事件发生前后的风场和气压场分析发现,尼诺发生前的冬半年,冬季风偏强,气压梯度加强,中国沿海海平面偏低;到了厄尔尼诺的盛期,出现较强的南风异常,气压梯度反向,季风转向,过渡到了厄尔尼诺事件的衰减期,为拉尼娜事件做准备,此时海平面偏高。     

两类强度厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件对中国近海鲐鱼栖息地的影响

鲐鱼是中上层鱼类，具有较高经济价值，其种群受到气候和海洋环境的显著影响。本文根据2006-2015年7-9月中国远洋渔业数据中心提供的中国近海鲐鱼捕捞和海表温度以及海面高度两个关键环境因子的数据，构建了基于捕捞努力量的鲐鱼综合栖息地指数模型，分析研究了在不同强度厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜条件下鲐鱼栖息地适宜性的变动规律。通过计算和交叉验证，结果发现，基于算术平均法的栖息地模型能够较好地预测鲐鱼渔场栖息地适宜性指数。空间相关性结果表明，鲐鱼渔场主要作业海域范围内海表温度异常与栖息地指数值呈显著正相关关系，而海表面高度异常与栖息地指数值呈显著负相关关系。不同强度厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件对鲐鱼种群影响不同，具体表现为:相对于中强度厄尔尼诺事件（或中强度拉尼娜事件），超强厄尔尼诺事件（或强拉尼娜事件）驱动鲐鱼主要作业海域内温度下降（或上升），海面高度上升（或降低），鲐鱼渔场适宜栖息地面积显著减小（或增大），导致鲐鱼单位捕捞努力量渔获量骤减（或显著增加）。研究表明，中国近海鲐鱼栖息地适宜性与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件显著相关，且随着异常气候事件强度的不同而发生变化。     

异常气候条件下秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地的时空变动

茎柔鱼主要分布于东太平洋，是我国鱿钓渔船的主要捕捞对象，气候变化对其栖息地有较大影响。本研究依据1950?2015年海表温度(SST)、海表高度距平(SSHA)以及尼诺指数(Ni?o3.4指数)，计算秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性指数(HSI)，分析在厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)、正常气候和拉尼娜(La Ni?a)条件下适宜栖息地的时空变动。分析表明，海表温度距平(SSTA)和SSHA与Ni?o3.4指数的变化趋势基本相同，Ni?o3.4指数与SSTA和SSHA均呈显著正相关，但与HSI值呈显著负相关。依据气候事件的定义，将研究年份划分为El Ni?o年，正常年和La Ni?a年。研究发现，在El Ni?o年，茎柔鱼渔场水温变暖，海面高度上升，适宜的SST和SSHA范围缩小，导致适宜的栖息地面积范围缩减；而在正常气候和La Ni?a年份，茎柔鱼渔场水温变冷，海面高度下降，适宜的SST和SSHA范围增大，因此适宜的栖息地面积范围增加。此外，Ni?o3.4指数和茎柔鱼渔场HSI纬度重心呈显著正相关，在El Ni?o事件下适宜的栖息地纬度重心向南偏移。研究认为，不同ENSO事件下茎柔鱼渔场环境变化显著，进而影响茎柔鱼适宜的栖息地范围及其空间分布。     

The interanual rainfall variability in Indonesia corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole

The Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) event for Indonesian rainfall has been investigated for the period from 1950 to 2011. Inter-annual change of IOD and ENSO indices are used to investigate their relationship with Indonesian rainfall. By using the wavelet transform method, we found a positive significant correlation between IOD and Indonesian rainfall on the time scale of nearly 2.5–4 years.Furthermore, the positive significant correlation between ENSO(sea surface temperature anomaly at Ni?o3.4 area indices) and Indonesian rainfall exists for shorter than 2 years and between 5.5 to 6.5-year time scales.     

热带太平洋气候变率的三类模态及与ENSO强度变化的关系

基于Kaplan等重建的1856—2001年全球海表水温距平(SSTA)资料，用小波变换分析了热带太平洋SSTA的气候变率，对热带太平洋SSTA分别进行2—8、8—30和30—100a带通滤波，然后进行EOF分解。结果发现，ENSO模态具有5a左右的年际变化和15a左右的年代际变化2种显著周期，当二者位相相同时，ENSO事件加强，当二者位相相反时，ENSO事件减弱，当年际变化不明显时，显著的年代际变化也可单独导致ENSO事件；热带太平洋SSTA气候态变率以西太平洋暖池和赤道两侧的热带中东太平洋明显海温同号异常为主要特征，具60a左右的周期，其相位变化与气候跃变及El Nifio事件的类型有密切联系；长期增温倾向加大了El Nifio事件的振幅。文章最后指出，ENSO事件强度变化是由年际、年代际和气候态等3类模态变率共同作用的结果，在ENSO预报模式中考虑并引入年代际和气候态变化对ENSO循环的影响，是提高ENSO预测水平的有效途径之一。     

冬季婆罗洲岛西北沿岸上升流的时空特征及机理研究

Winter coastal upwelling off northwest Borneo in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated by using satellite data, climatological temperature and salinity fields and reanalysis data. The upwelling forms in December, matures in January, starts to decay in February and almost disappears in March. Both Ekman transport induced by the alongshore winter monsoon and Ekman pumping due to orographic wind stress curl are favorable for the upwelling. Transport estimates demonstrate that the month-to-month variability of Ekman transport and Ekman pumping are both consistent with that of winter coastal upwelling, but Ekman transport is two times larger than Ekman pumping in January and February. Under the influence of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), the upwelling shows remarkable interannual variability: during winter of El Ni?o(La Ni?a) years, an anticyclonic(a cyclonic) wind anomaly is established in the SCS, which behaves a northeasterly(southwesterly) anomaly and a positive(negative) wind stress curl anomaly off the northwest Borneo coast, enhancing(reducing) the upwelling and causing anomalous surface cooling(warming) and higher(lower) chlorophyll concentration. The sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) associated with ENSO off the northwest Borneo coast has an opposite phase to that off southeast Vietnam, resulting in a SSTA seesaw pattern in the southern SCS in winter.     

海洋初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用

2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,是暖海温中心出现在赤道中太平洋区域的一种新型厄尔尼诺,即中太平洋型厄尔尼诺。本文基于一个厄尔尼诺预测系统,利用三组回报试验来详细区分海洋表层和次表层初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用,并由此来探寻对预报厄尔尼诺演变过程最有利的初始条件。回报试验分为三组:(1)仅同化海表温度观测(sea surface temperature;简称SST)来优化海洋表层初始状态(Assim_SST);(2)仅同化海表高度观测(sea level;简称SL)来更新海洋次表层初始状态(Assim_SL);(3)同时同化SST和SL观测来一起更新海洋表层和次表层初始状态(Assim_SST+SL)。回报试验结果表明,三种不同的初始条件都可以使模式提前一年成功地预报2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,并且"Assim_SST+SL"回报试验的效果最好。三组回报试验结果间的对比表明:海洋表层和次表层初始状态均对成功地预报该事件有重要作用,但其作用分别集中在事件发展的不同阶段。精确的海洋表层初始状态更容易激发模式预报出一次厄尔尼诺事件,而更合理的海洋次表层初始状态则能有效地提高厄尔尼诺事件预报的强度。     

两类El Niño事件对中国近海及毗邻海域海表温度的影响

为研究东部型和中部型两类厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)事件与中国近海海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)变化间的联系,基于中国科学院大气物理研究所连续80年(1940—2019年)的SST再分析数据,采用EOF分解、合成分析等方法做了初步分析,发现中国近海及毗邻海域近80年SST变化与全球变暖密切相关。并且两类El Ni?o事件对中国近海SST变化的影响存在显著差异。东部型El Ni?o事件发展过程中,中国近海及毗邻海域SST在发展年主要为负异常,衰退期为正异常;中部型ElNi?o事件发展过程中, SST变化区域差异大,发展年日本附近海域为正异常, 28°N以南为弱的负异常。两类El Ni?o事件引发西太平洋风场反气旋涡的时间、位置与强度等的不同,是造成中国近海风场与海表温度异常(sea surface temperature anomaly, SSTA)差异的主要原因。     

渤海海冰的年际和年代际变化特征与机理

根据1951-2013年间的渤海冰情等级资料,利用最大熵谱分析、相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了渤海冰情等级的年际和年代际变化特征,探讨了局地气候、大气环流、ENSO(El Nio-Southern Oscillation)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)对海冰的影响。结果表明,渤海海冰具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,并在1972年前后发生了一次由重到轻的气候跃变,在跃变后冰情较跃变前平均降低了0.7级。相关分析与合成分析结果显示,渤海冰情的年际变化除受局地气候的影响外,还受西太平洋副热带高压(副高)、极涡和欧亚环流的共同调控,特别在1972年以后,秋季副高、冬季欧亚和亚洲纬向环流对渤海冰情的年际变化均有重要影响,可作为渤海海冰预报的重要因子,而春季PDO、ENSO、冬季副高及欧亚和亚洲经向环流则是渤海冰情年代际变化的影响因素。