A qualitative risk assessment for the impacts of climate change on nationally and internationally important geoheritage sites in Scotland

Climate change is a significant concern for nature conservation in the 21?st century. One of the goals of the 2014 Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme is to identify the consequences of climate change for protected areas and to put in place adaptation or mitigation measures. As a contribution to the process, this paper develops a methodology to identify the relative level of risk to nationally and internationally important geological and geomorphological sites in Scotland from the impacts of climate change. The methodology is based on existing understanding of the likely responses of different types of geosite to specific aspects of climate change, such as changes in rainfall, rising sea levels or increased storminess, and is applied to assess the likelihood of damaging impacts on groups of similar geoheritage features in sites with similar characteristics. The results indicate that 80 (8.8%) of the ～900 nationally and internationally important geoheritage sites in Scotland are at ‘high’ risk from climate change. These include active soft-sediment coastal and fluvial features, finite Quaternary sediment exposures and landforms in coastal and river locations, active periglacial features, sites with palaeoenvironmental records, finite or restricted rock exposures and fossils. Using this risk-based assessment, development of indicative geoheritage climate-change actions have been prioritised for these sites. Depending on the characteristics of the sites, management options may range from ‘do nothing’ to rescue excavations and posterity recording. Monitoring is an essential part of the management process to trigger evidence-based interventions.     

我国冰冻圈变化的影响在气候变化背景下的识别

全球气候变化对自然生态系统和人类社会系统的各个方面产生了很重要的直接影响,其中冰冻圈由于其脆弱性与灵敏性而首当其冲.同样,气候变化通过影响冰冻罔而对自然生态系统和人类社会系统产生很重要的间接影响.通过论述冰冻圈变化的影响,选取较为典型的领域,在时空尺度、作用机制以及影响过程等方面,对气候变化背景下我国冰冻圈变化的具体影响进行了识别.结果表明,气候变化的正面或者负面影响通过冰冻圈变化的作用之后可以加强或者削弱,从而为制定冰冻圈变化的适应对策提供科学依据.     

气候变化适应对策的评价方法和工具

气候变化影响和适应对策方法评估的研究目的主要是建立和应用先进有效的分析工具和评价方法对气候变化脆弱性和适应对策进行科学评估. 因此需要了解当前已经在自然资源和环境研究中广泛使用的决策分析工具,掌握和了解各种适应对策评估工具的关键特性及其优缺点. 首先介绍各种有关适应对策的定义及两大类适应评估方法途径, 同时举例介绍不同方法在气候变化影响和适应评估研究中的应用. 常规的适应对策评估分析主要以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)气候变化影响和适应对策评估技术指南中的方法工具为代表, 另一种适应对策研究则致力于改善各种对气候变化敏感系统的适应能力和复原能力. 文中对各种适应对策评估方法和工具进行了介绍和讨论,并提出气候变化适应研究的新方向.     

Déjà vu or something new? The adaptation concept in the climate change literature

This paper reflects on the resurgence and meaning of the adaptation concept in the current climate change literature. We explore the extent to which the early political economic critique of the adaptation concept has influenced how it is used in this literature. That is, has the current conceptualization been enriched by the political economic critique of the 1970s and 1980s and thus represent something new? Or is the concept used in a way today that echoes previous debates; that is, is this a déjà vu experience? To answer this question, we review the early political economic critique of the natural hazards school’s interpretations of vulnerability and adaptation. We then examine the revival of the adaptation concept in the climate change literature and discuss its main interpretations. For the purposes of this paper, the climate change literature encompasses the four IPCC reports and adaptation-focused articles in four scholarly journals: Global Environmental Change, Climatic Change, Climate and Development, and Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Our content analysis shows the dominance (70%) of “adjustment adaptation” approaches, which view climate impacts as the main source of vulnerability. A much smaller percentage (3%) of articles focus on the social roots of vulnerability and the necessity for political–economic change to achieve “transformative adaptation.” A larger share (27%) locates risk in both society and the biophysical hazard. It promotes “reformist adaptation,” typically through “development,” to reduce vulnerability within the prevailing system. We conclude with a discussion of continuity and change in the conceptualization of adaptation, and point to new research directions.     

全球变化对农业的影响及适应对策

政府间气候变化专门委员会是为气候变化框架公约提供科学和技术评价的机构，下设负责气候和温室气体、影响和对策、社会和经济问题三个工作组。它的第一次评价报告完成于１９９０年，修订于１９９２年。为了于１９９５年９月完成它的第二次评价报告，ＩＰＣ组织了世界各国２００多名各领域的科学家（１３名来自中国）分５０多个章节撰写，于１９９５年３月完成了ＩＰＣＣ第二次评价报告的第三稿。本文浓缩介绍了ＩＰＣＣ第二工作组Ｄ     

气候变化的影响与长期气候目标的建立研究进展

IPCC报告指出,气候变化已经并将继续显著地影响人类赖以生存和发展的资源、生态和环境,并对经济、水资源、海岸带以及生态系统造成重大影响。随着全球气候的进一步增暖,各种不利影响的严重程度可能会加剧。在研究气候变化带来影响的基础上,分析了气候变化的驱动因素,提出减缓气候变化影响应该建立一个长期的气候目标,并建议采取相应对策。     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN

Climate change alters global food systems, especially agriculture and fisheries—significant aspects of the livelihoods and food security of populations. The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report identified Southeast Asia as the most vulnerable coastal region in the world, and highlighted the potential distribution of impacts and risks of climate change in the region. While climate hazards may differ across geographical regions, the impact of climate extremes on food production will affect marginal farmers, fishers and poor urban consumers disproportionately, as they have limited capacities to adapt to and recover from extreme weather events. Governments and other stakeholders need to respond to climate extremes and incorporate adaptation into national development plans. Unfortunately, there is still limited peer-review publication on the subject matter. This paper presents some findings from research on observed and projected loss and damage inflicted by climate extremes on agricultural crops in Southeast Asia.     

Biophysical impacts of climate change on some terrestrial ecosystems in Estonia

Climate warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have a significant impact on the natural environment and human activity in high latitudes. Because of its geography, wide coastal areas, water resources, forests, and wetlands, the environment of Estonia is sensitive to climate change and sea level rise. Climate change scenarios for Estonia were generated using a Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database, Scenario Generator (SCENGEN). Three alternative emission scenarios were combined with data from 14 general circulation model experiments. The assessment results of forest resources using RipFor, a forest-soil-atmosphere model, show that climate warming would enhance forest growth in Estonia resulting in increased productivity (2–9%) of harvestable timber on highly productive sites. Nutrient mobility increases greatly and in highly permeable soils with stable vegetation, increased mobility may result in nutrient losses through leaching. The assessment results of water resources using the simple water balance model, WatBal, show that the runoff regime of Estonian rivers would equilibrate and the groundwater table would rise. Climate warming would not cause any particular problems with water supply but the groundwater quality may suffer from increased leaching. Due to milder winters and increased storminess, the destruction of coastal areas, inundation of wetlands and disappearance of rare plant communities in coastal areas would be the most damaging results of climate change. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value would disappear. However, isostatic uplift and settlements inland from the present coastline reduce the risk of socio-economic decline. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

气候变化对地表水资源的影响

总结了气候变化对水文水资源影响方面的研究方法, 分析了气候变化条件下水文水资源变化的研究现状和存在问题.并以山西省和黄河源区为研究对象, 以分布式水文模型为工具、GCMs输出的气候情景为输入条件, 针对不同的下垫面特征建立不同的分布式水文模型, 分别采用气候情景趋势分析结果和直接利用GCMs输出结果两类方法确定气候变化的数据源, 对研究区域未来的地表径流过程和地表水资源可能的变化趋势进行了研究.从气候情景的预测结果来看, 未来50年山西省的气温和降水都呈增加趋势, 但由于各自对水资源带来的影响不同, 将使山西省水资源呈现先增加后减少的趋势; 且由于冬季气温和降水的增幅比夏季大, 使得未来山西省的水资源年内分布有略微平缓的趋势.对黄河源区而言, 虽然未来100年内的降水和气温都呈增加趋势, 但由于降水增长引起的地表水资源的增加不足以抵消气温升高带来的影响, 因此将导致径流量不断降低的总体趋势, 并使径流年内分布略趋平缓, 而年际分布将越来越不均匀, 旱涝威胁日趋严峻.      

Development of a model-based high-resolution extreme surface wind climatology for Switzerland

An innovative methodology aimed at establishing a numerical model-based high-resolution climatology of extreme winds over Switzerland is described, that makes use of the Canadian Regional Climate Model where a new windgust parameterization has been implemented. Self-nesting procedures allow windstorms to be studied at resolution as high as 2-km. The analysis of ten major windstorms concludes that the average spatial pattern and magnitude of the simulated windspeeds are well captured, and the areas that experienced extreme winds correspond well with observations and to the location where forest damage was reported following the last two of these storms. This climatology would eventually serve to form risk assessment maps based on the exceedance of windspeed thresholds. There is, however, a need for further investigations to encompass the full range of potential extreme wind cases. The ultimate goal of this methodology is to assess the change in the behaviour of extreme winds for a climate forced by enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, and the impact of future windstorms over the Alpine region at high resolution.     

Adaptation to climate change in the insurance sector: examples from the UK,Germany and the Netherlands

Adaptation to climate change, particularly flood risks, may come to pose large challenges in the future and will require cooperation among a range of stakeholders. However, there presently exists little research especially on the integration of the private sector in adaptation. In particular, recently developed state programs for adaptation have so far been focused on the public sector. Insurance providers may have much to contribute as they offer other parts of society services to appropriately identify, assess and reduce the financial impacts of climate change-induced risks. This study aims to explore how the institutional distribution of responsibility for flood risk is being renegotiated within the UK, Germany and Netherlands. Examining how the insurance industry and the public sector can coordinate their actions to promote climate change adaptation, the study discusses how layered natural hazard insurance systems may result from attempts to deal with increasing risks due to increasing incidences of extreme events and climate change. It illustrates that concerns over the risks from extreme natural events have prompted re-assessments of the current systems, with insurance requiring long-term legislative frameworks that defines the objectives and responsibilities of insurers and the different political authorities.     

Patterns of the Impacts of Climate Change on Civilization

Climate change has profoundly impacted the development of human civilization. It is one of the basic forces that have led to the rise and fall of regional civilization. The manifestations and ultimate consequences of the impacts of climate change on social development are the products of the interaction between climate change and human society, which are both related to the characteristics of climate change and to the adaptation of human society. Based on the published papers on climate change and civilization during the past 20 years, five patterns of the impacts of climate change on civilization were summarized. They are periodic changes, pulse, adaptive transition, collapse, migration and replacement. Periodic changes and pulse occurred when climate change impacts were within the resilience of human social systems. Thus, there was no need for major structural changes in the human society. Adaptive transition was a fruit of successful response of the human system when the extent of abrupt climatic change or the trend of climate change exceeded the available range of human social systems In contrast, collapse was a result of failed response of the human system. Migration and replacement, in which people moved from their original living place to other regions and sometimes even replaced the aboriginal civilizations with the colonized civilization, could occur no matter the impacts of climate change had exceeded the resilience of human system. The summarization is expected to be useful for the understanding of the mechanism on the relationship between climate change and civilization, and for coping with the challenges of future global climate change.