Biophysical impacts of climate change on some terrestrial ecosystems in Estonia |
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Authors: | Are Kont Jaak Jaagus Tõnu Oja Arvo Järvet Reimo Rivis |
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Institution: | (1) Institute of Ecology, Tallinn Pedagogical University, Tallinn, Estonia;(2) Institute of Geography, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia |
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Abstract: | Climate warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have a significant impact on the natural environment
and human activity in high latitudes. Because of its geography, wide coastal areas, water resources, forests, and wetlands,
the environment of Estonia is sensitive to climate change and sea level rise. Climate change scenarios for Estonia were generated
using a Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database,
Scenario Generator (SCENGEN). Three alternative emission scenarios were combined with data from 14 general circulation model
experiments. The assessment results of forest resources using RipFor, a forest-soil-atmosphere model, show that climate warming
would enhance forest growth in Estonia resulting in increased productivity (2–9%) of harvestable timber on highly productive
sites. Nutrient mobility increases greatly and in highly permeable soils with stable vegetation, increased mobility may result
in nutrient losses through leaching. The assessment results of water resources using the simple water balance model, WatBal,
show that the runoff regime of Estonian rivers would equilibrate and the groundwater table would rise. Climate warming would
not cause any particular problems with water supply but the groundwater quality may suffer from increased leaching. Due to
milder winters and increased storminess, the destruction of coastal areas, inundation of wetlands and disappearance of rare
plant communities in coastal areas would be the most damaging results of climate change. Most sandy beaches high in recreational
value would disappear. However, isostatic uplift and settlements inland from the present coastline reduce the risk of socio-economic
decline.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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Keywords: | Baltic Sea climate change scenarios Estonia forest modelling general circulation models nutrient cycling rivers runoff sea-level rise water balance modelling |
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