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1.
Climate change affects not only water resources but also water demand for irrigation. A large proportion of the world’s agriculture depends on groundwater, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In several regions, aquifer resources face depletion. Groundwater recharge has been viewed as a by-product of irrigation return flow, and with climate change, aquifer storage of such flow will be vital. A general review, for a broad-based audience, is given of work on global warming and groundwater resources, summarizing the methods used to analyze the climate change scenarios and the influence of these predicted changes on groundwater resources around the world (especially the impact on regional groundwater resources and irrigation requirements). Future challenges of adapting to climate change are also discussed. Such challenges include water-resources depletion, increasing irrigation demand, reduced crop yield, and groundwater salinization. The adaptation to and mitigation of these effects is also reported, including useful information for water-resources managers and the development of sustainable groundwater irrigation methods. Rescheduling irrigation according to the season, coordinating the groundwater resources and irrigation demand, developing more accurate and complete modeling prediction methods, and managing the irrigation facilities in different ways would all be considered, based on the particular cases.  相似文献   

2.
Global warming is likely to have significant effect on the hydrological cycle. Some parts of the world may see significant reductions in precipitation or major alterations in the timing of wet and dry seasons. Climate change is one of the serious pressures facing water resources and their management over the next few years and decades. As part of the southern belt of Mediterranean Europe, Turkey is highly vulnerable to anticipated climate change impacts. The changes in global climate will seriously affect inland freshwater ecosystems and coastal lakes. Mogan and Eymir Lakes located in Central Turkey are shallow lakes that may be impacted significantly by climate change. The interaction between the lakes and groundwater system has been modelled in order to analyse the response of lake levels to climate change over a planning period of 96 years, beginning from October 2004 and ending in September 2100. The impacts of the emission scenarios of A2 and B1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on lake levels have been analyzed with the help of the lake-aquifer simulation model. The fluctuations in lake levels due to climate change scenarios are compared with the results of a scenario generated by the assumption of the continuation of the average recharge and discharge conditions observed for 1999 and 2004. The results show that very small, but long-term changes to precipitation and temperature have the potential to cause significant declines in lake levels and temporary drying of the lakes in the long-term. The impact of climate change on lake levels will depend on how these water resources are managed in the future.  相似文献   

3.
A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011–2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961–2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.  相似文献   

4.
Rising sea levels due to climate change are expected to negatively impact the fresh-water resources of small islands. The effects of climate change on Shelter Island, New York State (USA), a small sandy island, were investigated using a variable-density transient groundwater flow model. Predictions for changes in precipitation and sea-level rise over the next century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report were used to create two future climate scenarios. In the scenario most favorable to fresh groundwater retention, consisting of a 15% precipitation increase and 0.18-m sea-level rise, the result was a 23-m seaward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.27-m water-table rise, and a 3% increase in the fresh-water lens volume. In the scenario supposedly least favorable to groundwater retention, consisting of a 2% precipitation decrease and 0.61-m sea-level rise, the result was a 16-m landward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.59-m water-table rise, and a 1% increase in lens volume. The unexpected groundwater-volume increase under unfavorable climate change conditions was best explained by a clay layer under the island that restricts the maximum depth of the aquifer and allows for an increase in fresh-water lens volume when the water table rises.  相似文献   

5.
The sea levels along the semi-arid South Texas coast are noted to have risen by 3–5 mm/year over the last five decades. Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that this trend will continue in the 21st century with projected sea level rise in the order of 1.8–5.9 mm/year due to the melting of glaciers and thermal ocean expansion. Furthermore, the temperature in South Texas is projected to increase by as much as 4 °C by the end of the 21st century creating a greater stress on scarce water resources of the region. Increased groundwater use hinterland due to urbanization as well as rising sea levels due to climate change impact the freshwater-saltwater interface in coastal aquifers and threaten the sustainability of coastal communities that primarily rely on groundwater resources. The primary goal of this study was to develop an integrated decision support framework to assist land and water planners in coastal communities to assess the impacts of climate change and urbanization. More specifically, the developed system was used to address whether coastal side (primarily controlled by climate change) or landward side processes (controlled by both climate change and urbanization) had a greater control on the saltwater intrusion phenomenon. The decision support system integrates a sharp-interface model with information from GCMs and observed data and couples them to statistical and information-theoretic uncertainty analysis techniques. The developed decision support system is applied to study saltwater intrusion characteristics at a small coastal community near Corpus Christi, TX. The intrusion characteristics under various plausible climate and urbanization scenarios were evaluated with consideration given to uncertainty and variability of hydrogeologic parameters. The results of the study indicate that low levels of climate change have a greater impact on the freshwater-saltwater interface when the level of urbanization is low. However, the rate of inward intrusion of the saltwater wedge is controlled more so by urbanization effects than climate change. On a local (near coast) scale, the freshwater-saltwater interface was affected by groundwater production locations more so than the volume produced by the community. On a regional-scale, the sea level rise at the coast was noted to have limited impact on saltwater intrusion which was primarily controlled by freshwater influx from the hinterlands towards the coast. These results indicate that coastal communities must work proactively with planners from the up-dip areas to ensure adequate freshwater flows to the coast. Field monitoring of this parameter is clearly warranted. The concordance analysis indicated that input parameter sensitivity did not change across modeled scenarios indicating that future data collection and groundwater monitoring efforts should not be hampered by noted divergences in projected climate and urbanization patterns.  相似文献   

6.
Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.  相似文献   

7.
Seawater intrusion is a major problem to freshwater resources especially in coastal areas where fresh groundwater is surrounded and could be easily influenced by seawater. This study presents the development of a conceptual and numerical model for the coastal aquifer of Karareis region (Karaburun Peninsula) in the western part of Turkey. The study also presents the interpretation and the analysis of the time series data of groundwater levels recorded by data loggers. The SEAWAT model is used in this study to solve the density-dependent flow field and seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer that is under excessive pumping particularly during summer months. The model was calibrated using the average values of a 1-year dataset and further verified by the average values of another year. Five potential scenarios were analyzed to understand the effects of pumping and climate change on groundwater levels and the extent of seawater intrusion in the next 10 years. The result of the analysis demonstrated high levels of electrical conductivity and chloride along the coastal part of the study area. As a result of the numerical model, seawater intrusion is simulated to move about 420 m toward the land in the next 10 years under “increased pumping” scenario, while a slight change in water level and TDS concentrations was observed in “climate change” scenario. Results also revealed that a reduction in the pumping rate from Karareis wells will be necessary to protect fresh groundwater from contamination by seawater.  相似文献   

8.
Climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those set by humans. We use a biocomplexity framework to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal wetland ecogeomorphology. We concentrate on three dimensions of climate change affects on ecogeomorphology: sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs. While sea level rise, storms, sedimentation, and changing freshwater input can directly impact coastal and estuarine wetlands, biological processes can modify these physical impacts. Geomorphological changes to coastal and estuarine ecosystems can induce complex outcomes for the biota that are not themselves intuitively obvious because they are mediated by networks of biological interactions. Human impacts on wetlands occur at all scales. At the global scale, humans are altering climate at rapid rates compared to the historical and recent geological record. Climate change can disrupt ecological systems if it occurs at characteristic time scales shorter than ecological system response and causes alterations in ecological function that foster changes in structure or alter functional interactions. Many coastal wetlands can adjust to predicted climate change, but human impacts, in combination with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems. Management for climate change must strike a balance between that which allows pulsing of materials and energy to the ecosystems and promotes ecosystem goods and services, while protecting human structures and activities. Science-based management depends on a multi-scale understanding of these biocomplex wetland systems. Causation is often associated with multiple factors, considerable variability, feedbacks, and interferences. The impacts of climate change can be detected through monitoring and assessment of historical or geological records. Attribution can be inferred through these in conjunction with experimentation and modeling. A significant challenge to allow wise management of coastal wetlands is to develop observing systems that act at appropriate scales to detect global climate change and its effects in the context of the various local and smaller scale effects.  相似文献   

9.
A three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented using the SEAWAT code to quantify the spatial variation of water-table depth and salinity of the surficial aquifer in Merritt Island and Cape Canaveral Island in east-central Florida (USA) under steady-state 2010 hydrologic and hydrogeologic conditions. The developed model is referred to as the ‘reference’ model and calibrated against field-measured groundwater levels and a map of land use and land cover. Then, five prediction/projection models are developed based on modification of the boundary conditions of the calibrated ‘reference’ model to quantify climate change impacts under various scenarios of sea-level rise and precipitation change projected to 2050. Model results indicate that west Merritt Island will encounter lowland inundation and saltwater intrusion due to its low elevation and flat topography, while climate change impacts on Cape Canaveral Island and east Merritt Island are not significant. The SEAWAT models developed for this study are useful and effective tools for water resources management, land use planning, and climate-change adaptation decision-making in these and other low-lying coastal alluvial plains and barrier island systems.  相似文献   

10.
气候变化对天山伊犁河上游河川径流的影响   总被引:19,自引:7,他引:19  
用水量平衡模型研究气候变化对天山降雪比较丰富的伊犁河上游山区河川径流的影响。研究表明,作为西北干旱区水资源主要形成区的山区,由于气温较低和降水丰富,未来气候变化对水资源量的影响将主要取决于降水量的变化,气温升高的影响相对较小。气候的变暖,一方面使径流的年内分配发生变化,月径流峰值减少,时间提前,春季径流增加,而其余季节径流减少,其中夏季减少最多;另一方面将使年径流量的变率增大,这对水资源的利用极淡  相似文献   

11.
Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer–autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.  相似文献   

12.
Climate change has become a major global concern and threatens the security of natural environmental resources, including groundwater, especially for Cambodia. In this study, literature reviews related to climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia were evaluated to address the impact of climate change on the groundwater environment. In Cambodia, global climate change will likely affect available water resources by driving changes in the groundwater recharge and usage pattern. Despite a general increase in the mean annual rainfall, a reduction in rainfall is anticipated during the dry season, which could lead to shortages of fresh water during the dry season. The impact of climate change on water resource environments can significantly affect national economic development. Thus, strategic management plansfor groundwater in response to climate change should be established to ensure the security of water resources in Cambodia.  相似文献   

13.
胡爱萍  刘万锋  李生永  赵欣  杨阳 《冰川冻土》2017,39(5):1157-1162
干旱的河西走廊永昌县境内分布有弥足珍贵的刘克庄、焦家庄、北海子、圣容寺等4块面积达20.38 km2的湿地,均分布于西大河中游的永昌盆地。湿地的形成是地貌-构造所控制的水文地质条件及地表水、地下水(泉水)相互转化共同作用的结果。受20世纪以来气候变暖趋势及人类过度开发利用水资源的影响,西大河中游湿地面积呈逐步减少的萎缩状态,目前较大的泉眼仅有879个,近30年来湿地面积减少40%以上。加强西大河上游祁连山径流形成区和水资源涵养区的生态环境保护,减少出山地表水的引用量,控制中游地下水开采量及地下水位,是保护有限湿地资源的主要对策措施。  相似文献   

14.
Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.  相似文献   

15.
气候变化对玛纳斯河的径流量影响预测模拟分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
王晓杰  刘海隆  包安明 《冰川冻土》2012,34(5):1220-1228
山区积雪和冰川融水径流是内陆干旱区的重要水资源, 研究全球变暖情景下温度对融雪径流的影响具有重要意义. 以典型的内陆河玛纳斯流域上游为例, 利用基于度-日因子算法的SRM(Snowmelt Runoff Model)融雪径流模型, 根据当前变化趋势和年内分配模拟出20种假定来模拟未来气候情景(气温上升1 ℃、 2 ℃、 3 ℃、 4 ℃和降水变化率为0、 ±10%、 ±20%的随机组合情况)下的河道径流量, 从而计算出径流量的变化率, 分析了温度和降水变化对径流量的影响. 结果表明: 对于以雪冰融水为主要补给的玛纳斯河, 随着温度和降水的增加, 径流量也会增加, 并会使融雪径流提前. 假定降水量不发生大的变化, 温度增高1 ℃, 径流量增大13%~16%; 在气温一定时, 降雨量增加10%, 径流量增加2%左右, 说明气温和降水都对干旱区内陆河山区径流形成具有重要影响. 该研究对制定气候变化情景下的水资源适应对策具有重要指导意义.  相似文献   

16.
The coastal semi-arid region of south Texas is known for its erratic climate that fluctuates between long periods of drought and extremely wet hurricane-induced storms. The standard precipitation index (SPI) and the standard precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) were used in this study in conjunction with precipitation and temperature projections from two general circulation models (GCMs), namely, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre model (HCM) for two emission scenarios—A1B (~720 ppm CO2 stabilization) and B1 (~550 ppm CO2 stabilization) at six major urban centers of south Texas spanning five climatic zones. Both the models predict a progressively increasing aridity of the region throughout the twenty-first century. The SPI exhibits greater variability in the available moisture during the first half of the twenty-first century while the SPEI depicts a downward trend caused by increasing temperature. However, droughts during the latter half of the twenty-first century are due to both increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. These results suggest that droughts during the first half of the twenty-first century are likely caused by meteorological demands (temperature or potential evapotranspiration (PET) controlled), while those during the latter half are likely to be more critical as they curtail moisture supply to the region over large periods of time (precipitation and PET controlled). The drought effects are more pronounced for the A1B scenario than the B1 scenario and while spatial patterns are not always consistent, the effects are generally felt more strongly in the hinterlands than in coastal areas. The projected increased warming of the region, along with potential decreases in precipitation, points toward increased reliance on groundwater resources which are noted to be a buffer against droughts. However, there is a need for human adaptation to climate change, a greater commitment to groundwater conservation and development of large-scale regional aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facilities that are capable of long-term storage in order to sustain groundwater availability. Groundwater resource managers and planners must confront the possibility of an increased potential for prolonged (multi-year) droughts and develop innovative strategies that effectively integrate water augmentation technologies and conservation-oriented policies to ensure the sustainability of aquifer resources well into the next century.  相似文献   

17.
海平面上升导致的地下水入侵沿海地区的建筑地基造成显著风险。提出了一个考虑地下水侵入导致土壤强度退化的沿海建筑地基韧性模型。该模型由地基的性能函数在服役期内的积分得到。考虑条形基础的韧性,其极限承载力由Terzaghi公式描述。韧性模型考虑气候变化背景下地下水位的上升对土壤强度的影响。通过一个算例,展示了所提出的韧性模型的适用性。结果表明,如果不考虑气候变化影响下地下水位的上升,则会得到不保守的结构韧性评估结果。结构全寿命周期内的韧性也取决于所采用的维护措施(即,修复受损的结构性能)。未来的研究中,还应考虑其他因素(如锈蚀)对沿海建筑地基性能退化的联合影响。  相似文献   

18.
It is important to predict how groundwater levels in an aquifer will respond to various climate change scenarios to effectively plan for how groundwater resources will be used in the future. Due to the overuse of groundwater resources and the multi-year drought in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain in Iran, some land subsidence and a drop in groundwater levels has taken place, and without active management, further degradation of the groundwater resource is possible under predicted future climate change scenarios in the country. To determine the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the region, the groundwater model GMS was coupled with the atmospheric circulation model HADCM3 using scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 2016–2030. The results of the climate modelling suggest that the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will experience an increase in minimum temperature and maximum temperature of, respectively, between 0.03 and 0.47, and 0.32–0.45 °C for this time period. The results of the groundwater modelling suggest that water levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will continue to decline over the forecast period with decreases of 34.51, 36.57 and 33.58 m being predicted, respectively, for climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Consequently, groundwater resources in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will urgently need active management to minimize the effects of ongoing water level decline and to prevent saltwater intrusion and desertification in the region.  相似文献   

19.
Changes in the climatic system introduce uncertainties in the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4 °C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases will impact the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing the evaporation of surface water sources. Consequently, changes in precipitation will indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs(i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.). In addition, increases in temperature contribute to increases in the sea level, which may lead to sea water intrusions, water quality deterioration, potable water shortages, etc. Climate change has direct impacts on the surface water and the control of storage in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, which indirectly controls the groundwater recharge process. The main and direct impact of climate change on groundwater is changes in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables and accurate estimations of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models(GCMs) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change.These GCMs can be downscaled to a basin scale, and when they are coupled with relevant hydrological models, the output of these coupled models can be used to quantify the groundwater recharge, which will facilitate the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change.  相似文献   

20.

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

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