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Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems |
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| Authors: | Donald Scavia John C Field Donald F Boesch Robert W Buddemeier Virginia Burkett Daniel R Cayan Michael Fogarty Mark A Harwell Robert W Howarth Curt Mason Denise J Reed Thomas C Royer Asbury H Sallenger James G Titus |
| Institution: | 1. National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1305 East West Highway, 20910, Silver Spring, Maryland 2. College of Ocean and Fisheries Science, University of Washington, 1492 NE Boat Street, 98195, Seattle, Washington 3. University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P. O. Box 775, 21401, Cambridge, Maryland 4. Kansas Geological Survey, University of Kansas, 1930 Constant Avenue, 66047, Lawrence, Kansas 5. National Wetlands Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 700 Cajundome Boulevard, 70506, Lafayette, Louisiana 6. Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, 92093-0224, La Jolla, California 7. National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 166 Water Street, 02543, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 8. Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, 33149, Miami, Florida 9. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, 14853, Ithica, New York 10. RR2 Box 156AB, 25414, Charles Town, West Virginia 11. Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of New Orleans, 2000 Lakeshore Drive, 70148, New Orleans, Louisiana 12. Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Department of Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Old Dominion University, 768 West 52nd Street, 23529, Norfolk, Virginia 13. Center for Coastal Geology, U.S. Geological Survey, 600 4th Street, South, 33701, St. Petersburg, Florida 14. Office of Economy and the Environment, Global Programs Division (6205J), Environmental Protection Agency, 20460, Washington, DC |
| Abstract: | Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. |
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