考虑地震危险性的倾倒变形边坡风险定量分析

风险分析与评估是解决边坡固有不确定性的重要工具,但同时考虑外在荷载和内在岩土力学参数的不确定性,对边坡进行系统定量风险分析的研究较少.以西藏扎拉水电站厂后倾倒变形边坡为例,基于场地地震峰值加速度概率密度函数和不同地震峰值加速度下边坡失稳概率拟合函数,采用数值积分计算了边坡在设计基准期的失稳概率,并采用离散元方法对边坡失...     

Assessing risk to groundwater quality using an integrated risk framework

Source-water protection strategies are ideally focused where the greatest amount of harm reduction can occur. This process of risk management requires an assessment of the spatial variability of risk to water. The assessment methodology presented herein combines aquifer susceptibility with a hazard threat inventory and an analysis of the consequence of contamination to assess the risk to water quality. Aquifer susceptibility combines the intrinsic susceptibility of the physical system with anthropogenic features that locally increase susceptibility. Hazard threats are assessed based on the properties of the chemicals (toxicity and environmental fate), the potential magnitude (extent and quantity of release) and the likelihood of release. The consequence is herein considered as the financial costs of the loss of the resource, including the replacement of a water source and the economic loss where water intensive businesses are lost. A second scenario is included that analyses health issues related to pathogen sources as well as the financial impact to the community where people fall ill and present a financial burden to the public health care system. The risk assessment methodology is applied to the Township of Langley, in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. The results outline the most vulnerable areas as those where susceptible aquifers coexist with potential chemical and biological threats. The risk is greatest where these vulnerable areas coincide with those with the greatest potential for financial loss: within the capture zones of major municipal production wells and where private wells serve agricultural operations with high annual farm sales.     

Landslide risk assessment

Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of <0.50=low risk, 0.50 to 1.50=moderate risk, and >1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction.     

Integrating risk perceptions into flood risk management: Trinidad case study

Natural Hazards - Flooding disasters are frequent and devastating events in Trinidad. Moderate amounts of precipitation burst riverbanks in central business districts, cities, and towns within the...     

Adaptation of hurricane risk perception scale to earthquake risk perception and determining the factors affecting women's earthquake risk perception

Natural Hazards - Worldwide studies show that gender is an important variable affecting disaster risk perception and that women have high levels of disaster risk perception. The objective of this...     

Regional disaster risk evaluation of China based on the universal risk model

A comprehensive understanding and scientific evaluation of natural disasters risk is not only the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation, but also the urgent needs of the economic and social sustainable development. Disaster risk evaluation index system in accordance with Chinese reality was constructed, which contains 5 second-class indicators and 28 third-class indicators; moreover, the universal risk evaluation model was designed combined with nonlinear damage evaluation method; then, the disaster risk of China’s 31 provinces was evaluated, as well as the urban risk ranking and risk map of 31 provinces were presented. The evaluation results can make us see the urban risk situation clearly and intuitively, which helps the related department to clearly focus on their work, as well as provides theoretical guidance for the national and local disaster prevention and mitigation planning.     

Regional-scale landslide risk assessment on Mt. Umyeon using risk index estimation

Landslides - The frequency of landslides and their magnitude are increasing worldwide due to global climate change, causing damage to people and infrastructure. Therefore, landslide risk assessment...     

Making risk real: Urban trees and the ontological politics of risk

Over the past several decades, risk has become a distinct field of social inquiry as scholars in a variety of disciplines have developed theories about the ‘nature’ of risk and the role it plays in contemporary society. Collectively, these theories enrich our understanding of the politics of risk, the dynamics of risk perception, and the way risk shapes and is shaped by space, culture, social change, and modes of governing in the neoliberal era. In this paper, however, we argue these theories are helpful but not entirely suited to understanding risk when it becomes the subject of something Whatmore (2009, p. 587, 2013) calls “environmental knowledge controversies”. These controversies are generative events where more-than-human agencies and the political and knowledge making practices of heterogeneous actors reshape our sense of the real. To address this issue, we draw on the concepts of enactment, multiplicity, and ontological politics to explore how different kinds of risk and tree were made more or less real during a contentious debate over the risk posed by a group of urban trees in Newcastle, Australia. This case study suggests we can think of risk and hazardous entities like trees as effects that also affect because they elicit interventions that transform bodies and spaces in more or less enduring ways. Attending to the enactment, multiplicity, and ontological politics of risk, we argue, provides an alternative way to navigate moments of political contestation over the assessment and management of risk that has implications for how these processes are conceived and conducted in the future.     

Effective flood risk visualisation

Natural Hazards - The effective communication of flood risk offers the opportunity to ensure communities can adapt and respond appropriately to changing local conditions. At a time of diminishing...     

Rethinking flood risk communication

Flooding is a serious hazard across Europe, with over 200 major floods documented in the last two decades. Over this period, flood management has evolved, with a greater responsibility now placed on at-risk communities to understand their risk and take protective action to develop flood resilience. Consequently, communicating flood risk has become an increasingly central part of developing flood resilience. However, research suggests that current risk communications have not resulted in the intended increase in awareness, or behavioural change. This paper explores how current risk communications are used by those at risk, what information users desire and how best this should be presented. We explore these questions through a multi-method participatory experiment, working together with a competency group of local participants in the town of Corbridge, Northumberland, the UK. Our research demonstrates that current risk communications fail to meet user needs for information in the period before a flood event, leaving users unsure of what will happen, or how best to respond. We show that participants want information on when and how a flooding may occur (flood dynamics), so that they can understand their risk and feel in control of their decisions on how to respond. We also present four prototypes which translate these information needs into new approaches to communicating flood risk. Developed by the research participants, these proposals meet their information needs, increase their flood literacy and develop their response capacity. The findings of the research have implications for how we design and develop future flood communications, but also for how we envisage the role of flood communications in developing resilience at a community level.     

Earthquake risk assessment and optimal risk management strategies for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan

In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies.     

基于等级相关的泥石流危险因子筛选与危险度评价

针对泥石流危险因子之间的单调性差异和主次危险因子之间的非线性关系,提出了结合散点图和Spearman等级相关评价泥石流主次危险因子相关性的方法,以散点图作为危险因子初步筛选的依据,以Spearman等级相关系数作为危险因子最终筛选和权重分配的依据。以云南省37条泥石流沟的基础数据为例,建立了泥石流危险度综合评价模型,以此计算东川市12条泥石流沟的危险度评价结果,计算结果表明,新方法比经典方法更能体现物源条件与动力条件对泥石流危险性的贡献,从而证明了新方法的合理性。     

Annual landslide risk and effectiveness of risk reduction measures in Shihmen watershed,Taiwan

Landslide risk analysis procedures in this study could evaluate annual landslide risk, and assess the effectiveness of measures. Risk analysis encompassing landslide hazard, vulnerability, and resilience capacity was used to evaluate annual landslide risk. First, landslide spatial, temporal, and area probabilities were joined to estimate annual probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, different elements were assigned corresponding values and vulnerabilities to calculate the expected property and life losses. Third, the resilience capacities of communities were calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of items, including “the participation experience of disaster prevention drill,” “real-time monitoring mechanism of community,” “autonomous monitoring of residents,” and “disaster prevention volunteer.” Finally, the annual landslide probabilities, expected losses, and resilience capacities were combined to evaluate annual landslide risk in Shihmen watershed. In addition, annual risks before and after the implementation of measures were compared to determine the benefits of measures, and subsequently benefit–cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit–cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit–cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating the effectiveness of measures was greater than the investment cost. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed changes in vulnerabilities and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit–cost ratio. However, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.     

Pseudo-fractal interpolation for risk analysis

Pseudo-fractal interpolation for risk analysis     

Tsunami risk analysis for China

Historical data have been used in this paper, in particular that available on the tsunami history and the geological and seismological characteristics along the coasts of China. The nature and effects of both local tsunamis and tele-tsunamis on the coasts of China are analyzed. The coastal response of China to tsunamis is estimated theoretically, also. Finally, the tsunami risk for the coast of China is calculated and the zonation of preliminary tsunami hazard of China is mapped for three levels of hazardicity.     

Carcinogenic risk evaluation for human health risk assessment from soils contaminated with heavy metals

Human activities have progressively increased in recent years. Consequently, significant environment deterioration resulted. Soils have a particularly varied vulnerability to heavy metal pollution, especially in the vicinity of industrial areas. Heavy metal contamination of soil may induce risks and hazards to humans and the ecosystem, while toxic metals in soil can severely inhibit the biodegradation of organic contaminants. This paper is focused on human health risk assessment from extremely contaminated soil with heavy metals, mainly with carcinogenic elements. The study refers to an agricultural area in the vicinity of an old metallurgical processing industrial facility. The contaminants evaluated in the present paper are beryllium (Be), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb). Contamination level is pointed out through laboratory analysis results of soil samples taken from 0–0.2 m, 0.2–0.4 m soil layers and up to 2.1 m soil depth. Some heavy metal concentrations (Cd, Cr and Pb) exceed the intervention thresholds for sensitive areas, as they are stipulated in the national regulation in Romania. The identified average concentration levels of Cd, Cr^VI and Pb in the first layer of the investigated land are 23.83, 7.71 and 704.22 mg/kg_d.w, respectively. The results show that the potential risk of human health is relevant (higher than the acceptable one after World Health Organization) and a possible solution for the remediation should become a major concern for the investigated area.     

Pseudo-fractal interpolation for risk analysis

This paper describes a new method of analyzing the risk incurred when the outcome of a decision depends on interpolated values, for example, on the flow through an aquifer sparsely sampled for permeability or on the ratio of waste to ore in a mineral deposit sparsely sampled for grade. The method uses large families of interpolations constructed between sample values using adaptations of the well-known midpoint displacement method for generating pseudo-fractional Brownian motion trajectories. The parameters defining each family are chosen interactively by specialists to incorporate their expert knowledge. Each family, or ensemble, then defines a population of values for any global characteristic (functional) such as flow rate or waste ratio. The probabilities of various outcomes are estimated by counting them and calculating their ratios. For example, if 900 out of 1000 are acceptable the chance of success is estimated to be 90%.