基于等级相关的泥石流危险因子筛选与危险度评价

针对泥石流危险因子之间的单调性差异和主次危险因子之间的非线性关系，提出了结合散点图和Spearman等级相关评价泥石流主次危险因子相关性的方法，以散点图作为危险因子初步筛选的依据，以Spearman等级相关系数作为危险因子最终筛选和权重分配的依据。以云南省37条泥石流沟的基础数据为例，建立了泥石流危险度综合评价模型，以此计算东川市12条泥石流沟的危险度评价结果，计算结果表明，新方法比经典方法更能体现物源条件与动力条件对泥石流危险性的贡献，从而证明了新方法的合理性。

Screening of debris flow risk factors and risk evaluation based on rank correlation

In view of the difference in the monotonicity for risk factors and the nonlinear relationship between the primary risk factors and secondary risk factors in the evaluation of debris flow risk, a new method to evaluate the correlation between the primary risk factors and secondary risk factors by using scatter diagrams and Spearman rank correlation is proposed. In the method, the scatter diagrams are used to analyze the relationship between the primary risk factors and the secondary risk factors, and on this basis, a preliminary screening of the secondary risk factors can be made. Spearman coefficients of rank correlations are used to further screen the secondary risk factors and identify their weights. With the new method, a new formula of debris flow risk is established by using the basic data of 37 debris flow gullies in Yunnan province. Finally, the new formula is taken to calculate the debris flow risk of 12 debris flow gullies in Dongchuan city. The results verify that the source conditions and dynamic conditions are significant to the potential risk of debris flows, so as to justify the rationality of this method.