A disaster risk management performance index

The Risk Management Index, RMI, proposed in this paper, brings together a group of indicators that measure risk management performance and effectiveness. These indicators reflect the organizational, development, capacity and institutional actions taken to reduce vulnerability and losses in a given area, to prepare for crisis and to recover efficiently from disasters. This index is designed to assess risk management performance. It provides a quantitative measure of management based on predefined qualitative targets or benchmarks that risk management efforts should aim to achieve. The design of the RMI involved establishing a scale of achievement levels or determining the distance between current conditions and an objective threshold or conditions in a reference country, sub-national region, or city. The proposed RMI is constructed by quantifying four public policies, each of which is described by six indicators. The mentioned policies include the identification of risk, risk reduction, disaster management, and governance and financial protection. Risk identification comprises the individual perception, social representation and objective assessment; risk reduction involves the prevention and mitigation; disaster management comprises response and recovery; and, governance and financial protection policy is related to institutionalization and risk transfer. Results at the urban, national and sub-national levels, which illustrate the application of the RMI in those scales, are finally given.     

灰色关联度分析法在北京通州区地裂缝灾害危险性评价中的应用

地裂缝是地质灾害中的地面变形灾害之一,是直接或间接地恶化环境、降低环境质量、危害人类和生物圈发展的地质事件。本文介绍了利用灰色关联度分析法对地裂缝灾害危险性进行评价,并系统阐述了灰色关联度分析法的评价方法与模型,旨在为城市规划和防灾减灾提供科学依据。文中以北京市通州区为例,对北京市通州区地裂缝现状进行了说明并对其进行了成因分析,选取了灾害发育强度、地质条件和水文地质条件三项因子共六个评价指标,然后对评价指标进行权重计算评定地裂缝的危险性等级,并绘制区划图。根据区划的结果,划分地裂缝中度易发区、轻度易发区、微度易发区以及非易发区。     

基于自然灾害风险评价框架的省级地质灾害风险区划方法探讨——以吉林省为例

地质灾害风险区划是地质灾害风险管理与防治的有效手段之一,对于科学防治地质灾害具有重要意义。基于自然灾害风险理论,从致灾因子危险性,承灾体暴露性和脆弱性以及防灾减灾能力（恢复力）等入手,选取评价指标,构建省级地质灾害风险评价模型,对全省地质灾害进行风险区划。该模型在吉林省地质灾害风险区划中应用表明,评价结果合理,与野外调查情况吻合,可以为规划和地质灾害防治等工作提供依据。     

Comprehensive evaluation of urban flood-bearing risks based on combined compound fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model

The extreme precipitation events caused by climate change and the rapid development of urbanization have brought hidden flood risks to the cities. This paper comprehensively considered two major factors of vulnerability of urban flood-bearing and disaster prevention and mitigation (DPAM) capacity and built a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban flood-bearing risks. Secondly, a combined model consisted of composite fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model was constructed to calculate the comprehensive risk indicator. Finally, the Zhengzhou City was taken as an example, the comprehensive indices of urban flood-bearing risk from 2006 to 2015 were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive risk of Zhengzhou City was generally on a slow upward trend, from II level (moderate-risk) in 2006 to III level (secondary high-risk) in 2015, which was mainly due to the mismatch between the rapid development of urbanization and the slow improvement of DPAM capabilities. This paper is expected to provide scientific reference and technical support for urban flood disaster prevention and sponge city construction.

     

城市泥石流灾害预警问题探讨

随着城市灾害日益加剧,城市安全引起更广泛的关注,加强防御、控制城市泥石流灾害,增强城市综合减灾抗灾能力是泥石流减灾工作的重点。近几十年来,泥石流预警减灾的作用已得到了高度重视,探讨现代预警技术方法目的在于为城市减灾提供可靠的应急防灾对策。指出改进目前城市泥石流监测预警状况可以大大减轻泥石流暴发带来的损失。在分析国内外泥石流预警研究进展的基础上,针对目前存在的问题,提出当前城市泥石流防灾研究中应重视开展预警工作,注重将泥石流预警与形成机制、新技术方法和减灾决策系统等相结合,其中要特别加强城市数字减灾系统、城市防灾预案,以及城市风险管理和损失评估系统的综合研究。     

Methodology and its application for community-scale evacuation planning against earthquake disaster

In urban area, popular and property is accumulated in a small area, potential risk of earthquake disaster in urban community is great. Pre-disaster emergency evacuation zoning has become a significant topic of disaster prevention and mitigation research. Based on the present layout of evacuation facilities and shelters as well as the evacuation demands in urban communities, a systematical methodology for occupant evacuation against earthquakes on community scale was developed by employing spatial analysis techniques of Geographical Information System (GIS). The methodology included the following aspects: the distribution analysis of emergency evacuation demands, the calculation of shelter space accessibility, and the optimization of evacuation destinations. This methodology was applied to Lujiazui Street in Pudong, a new district located in Shanghai, China. It was found that the proposed methodology could be used to formulate pre-event planning for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation on a community scale, especially for organizing a rapid and smooth evacuation and optimizing the location allocation of shelters.     

Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China

Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China.     

Risk evaluation of ice-jam disasters using gray systems theory: the case of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River

Risk evaluation for natural disasters is an important part of the emergency management, disaster prevention and mitigation. Because of the complexity and uncertainty of practical evaluation problems, the evaluation information available generally needs depiction of interval gray numbers instead of real numbers. This paper presents an evaluation method with three-parameter interval gray numbers which can deal with dynamic multiple indicators in order to evaluate efficiently the ice-jam disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River in China. The gray range transformation is introduced into the process of model building to eliminate the incomparability of different dimensions. Moreover, model GM(1,1) is used to simulate and predict the development trend of risk vector. As the results show, while the ice-jam disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River reveals certain wave characteristics, the overall trend remains smooth. The risk degree of ice-jam disaster with Bayangol and Toudaoguai is expected to decrease in the years between 2013 and 2015, while that with Sanhu River tends to increase.     

The comprehensive risk evaluation on rainstorm and flood disaster losses in China mainland from 2004 to 2009: based on the triangular gray correlation theory

In this paper, we introduce the gray correlation method of risk evaluation in meteorological disaster losses based on historical disaster data in China (mainland) and apply the improved gray relational analysis model (the triangular gray relational model) to the risk evaluation of rainstorm and flood disaster losses. In addition, we divide the risk grade standards of rainstorm and flood disaster losses according to 186 rainstorm and flood disaster data of four optimization indexes (disaster area, suffered population, collapsed houses, and direct economic losses), evaluate the extent of dynamic rainstorm and flood disaster losses in 31 provinces of China (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan exclusive) comprehensively, and draw China’s zoning map of rainstorm and flood disaster from 2004 to 2009. The method provides reasonable and effective references for national disaster preventions which can be used in other researches focused on risk evaluation of meteorological disaster losses.     

强震区城市地质灾害风险管理的研究内容与方法探讨

地质灾害风险管理是一种寻求更加合理有效的地质灾害减灾防灾的理念和模式。随着山区城市化进程的加快,经济和人口在城市的相对聚集,加之强烈地震活动,使得山区城市面临风险不断地提高。研究强震城市风险管理,已成为当前城市防灾减灾工作的一项重大课题。本文概述了国内外研究进展,提出该研究方向的主要研究内容和研究方法。未来研究内容应该包括（1）强震区城市地质灾害风险结构与风险量化分析,（2）城市地震地质灾害风险判据研究与风险准则建立,（3）强震区城市地质灾害管制的途径和方法研究,（4）强震区城市地质灾害管制的效能监控机制研究,（5）强震区城市地质灾害风险管制的模式与规范体系研究。     

层次分析法在单沟泥石流危险度评价中的应用

单沟泥石流危险度评价是泥石流危险性评价中的重要内容,对实现山区的安全减灾有着重要意义。文章从系统理论出发,运用层次分析法(AHP)对影响泥石流沟谷危险度的相关因子进行分析,构建单沟泥石流危险度评价的层次指标系统,并对各参与评价因子的权重作了计算,建立起单沟泥石流危险度评价模型。通过对泥石流沟的实例验证,评价结果与实际情况有较好的一致性。该方法将定量与定性相结合,能很好地解决泥石流危险度综合评价问题,对提高泥石流危险度评价的可靠性、准确性及客观性有一定的实践意义。     

洪涝灾害风险评估与分区研究进展

在全球气候变化和城市化进程不断加快的背景下,城市洪涝灾害频发,造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡问题。对近年来中国典型城市洪涝灾害进行系统整理介绍,说明洪涝灾害带来的人员伤亡和经济损失巨大。风险评估作为一种非工程性防洪措施,是城市洪涝风险管理的首要工作,精确、高效的把握洪灾过程等特征可以为防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。对城市洪涝风险评估与分区的概念和内容进行系统梳理,常用的风险评估方法有数理统计法、不确定性分析法、遥感影像评估法、指标体系评估法、情景模拟评估法；风险分区常用方法有阈值法、经验公式法和物理机制法。论述了城市洪涝风险评估与分区常用方法的应用范围、优缺点及其发展前景。     

基于GIS的城市防震减灾信息系统设计

本文以地理信息系统系列工具软件为开发平台,采用先进的计算机数据库管理技术和可视化技术,设计了城市防震减灾信息系统,为政府部门进行城市震前、震时、震后的科学管理提供有力的辅助工具,为提高城市综合防震能力提供有效手段。文章采用了系统化设计思想,阐述了城市防震减灾信息系统的组成及其功能,并详细介绍了基础数据库的构建过程。     

城市地面塌陷灾害风险评估研究

随着城市化进程不断加快,城市地下空间安全问题引起广泛关注。本文以影响地下空间安全的典型灾害-地面塌陷为例,开展可能性风险评估研究,为降低地面塌陷灾害损失提供理论支撑。城市地面塌陷成因复杂,为了保证评价过程和结果的客观全面,通过调研对塌陷引发因素进行了总结,从管道因素、病害体因素、环境因素三个方面建立风险发生可能性评价指标体系,并使用AHP-熵权法-灰色关联法组合评价,建立地面塌陷风险评价模型。将该模型应用于郑州市典型地下空洞工程案例进行评估分析,结果表明:地面塌陷风险评价结果与实测结果相符,证明了评估模型的科学性,同时为城市地面塌陷预防提供了决策参考。     

Exploring the characteristics of major natural disasters in China and their impacts during the past decades

The exploration of the characteristics of natural disasters (NDs) and their impacts have important implications for guiding disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper discussed the characteristics of the major NDs that occurred in mainland China between 1980 and 2011 based on the number of disasters and fatalities, the affected population, and the resulting economic damages. We further examined the relationships between the level of social/economic development and the disaster losses. At last, we also explored the trend variations in disaster losses and losses expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (losses/GDP) for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1990 to 2011. The results show that over the past three decades, the number of major NDs and the number of affected population appear to exhibit a detectable increasing trend, while the direct economic losses and the deaths show a slight increase trend. The correlations between the number of disasters and the economic losses as well as deaths and between the economic losses and socioeconomic status were not significant (p > 0.05), which indicates that the growth in the number of disasters do not result in a significant increase in the disaster losses. Further investigations demonstrate that as economies develop, there are fewer losses/GDP in China over the past two decades. The per capita accumulative losses and losses/GDP in the western and central regions were higher than that in the eastern parts of China. There are significant regional differences in the trends in disaster losses and losses/GDP in China. Statistics also indicate that more than 70 % provinces in underdeveloped regions show an increasing trend in disaster losses, whereas exceeding 90 % provinces exhibit a decreasing trend in their losses/GDP. These results suggest that the economic development may have played an important role in improving the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction.     

Flood risks in a dynamic urban agglomeration: a conceptual and methodological assessment framework

The analysis of risk and its causes is a crucial prerequisite for the development of risk prevention and mitigation measures in the scope of disaster risk management. This paper investigates on the problem of annually occurring floods in Santiago de Chile applying a framework for risk assessment, especially developed for the usage in a large urban area. A case-specific set of variables and indicators was compiled to show the relevant components and their interrelations influencing the flood risk and to provide a tool for monitoring and evaluating their changes over time. Methods for gathering information about the three components of risk, that is, hazard, elements at risk, and vulnerability, comprise the interpretation of very high resolution satellite data, the analysis of GIS, and census data as well as household surveys and expert interviews. The work shows how the assessment framework can be applied in practice to derive a geodata-based flood risk map at the scale of the administrative unit of a building block that can be used as a local decision-making tool.     

The 12 May Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide lakes: distribution and preliminary risk evaluation

The Wenchuan earthquake, measured at M _s 8.0 according to the China Earthquake Administration, occurred at 14:28 on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province of China. It brought overwhelming destruction to eight provinces and cities. Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the earthquake produced 257 landslide lakes which were distributed along the fault rupture zone and river channels. The authors traveled to the disaster zone immediately after the earthquake to examine some of the features of the debris dams and performed a quick evaluation of the potential for outburst of earthquake-induced landslide lakes for the purpose of disaster relief. The preliminary analysis indicated that the landslide lakes could be classified as those exhibiting extremely high risk, medium risk, and low risk according to field observations and remote sensing, to determine material composition, dam structure, dam height, maximum water storage capacity, and size of the population potentially affected area. The failure risk of 21 debris dams were evaluated as follows: one dam with an extremely high danger risk, seven dams with a high danger, five dams with a medium danger, and eight dams of low danger. More concern was given to the Tangjiashan Lake and different scenarios for the potential sudden failure of its dam were assessed. The risk evaluation result was accepted in full, by the earthquake disaster relief office. A successful emergency dam treatment for risk reduction was planned, based on our assessments, and these measures were quickly carried out. According to this research, the earthquake destabilized the surrounding mountains, resulting in a prolonged geohazard for the area. Landslides and debris flows will continue to develop for at least 5 to 10 years after the Wenchuan earthquake and will produce additional dammed lakes. Recommendations and plans for earthquake–landslide lake mitigation were proposed, based on past successful practices.     

基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的滑坡危险性评价

危险性评价与预测是滑坡灾害预防与减灾工作首要解决的重要内容。以西藏隆子县研究区内发育的滑坡为例,据其特有的地质环境条件,选取滑坡发育高程、坡度等13项影响因素作为滑坡危险性评价的指标,并建立分级标准将滑坡危险性划分为高度、中度和低度三级。采用组合赋权-未确知测度理论耦合评价模型,构建了评价指标未确知测度函数、评价指标组合赋权值、置信度判别准则,对研究区内20个滑坡进行了危险性评价,获得了每个滑坡危险性等级,并与模糊物元和突变理论评价结果及实测结果对比,评价结果基本符合实际情况,证明该方法科学合理,可为滑坡危险性预测提供新思路。     

Multi-level geospatial modeling of human exposure patterns and vulnerability indicators

In the context of disaster risk management and in particular for improving preparedness and mitigation of potential impacts, information on socioeconomic characteristics including aspects of situation-specific human exposure and vulnerability is considered vital. This paper provides an overview on available multi-level geospatial information and modeling approaches from global to local scales that could serve as inventory for people involved in disaster-related areas. Concepts and applications related to the human exposure and social vulnerability domains are addressed by illustrating the varying dimensions and contextual implications. Datasets and methods are highlighted that can be applied to assess earthquake-related population exposure, ranging from global and continental-scale population grids (with a focus on recent developments for Europe) to high-resolution functional urban system models and space–time variation aspects. In a further step, the paper elaborates on the integration of social structure on regional scale and the development of aggregative social and economic vulnerability indicators which would eventually enable the differentiation of situation-specific risk patterns. The presented studies cover social vulnerability mapping for selected US federal states in the New Madrid seismic zone as well as the advancement of social vulnerability analysis through integration of additional economic features in the index construction by means of a case study for Turkey’s provinces.     

Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster for maize based on integrating multi-sources data in the region of the northwest of Liaoning Province, China

The traditional studies on drought disaster risk were based on the ground point data, which were unable to realize the continuity of space and the timeliness. It is shown that the monitoring and evaluation precision on drought were reduced significantly. However, remote sensing data in adequate spatial and temporal resolution can overcome these limitations. It can better monitor the crop in large area dynamically. This study presents a methodology for dynamic risk analysis and assessment of drought disaster to maize production in the northwest of Liaoning Province based on remote sensing data and GIS from the viewpoints of climatology, geography and disaster science. The model of dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster was established based on risk formation theory of natural disaster, and the expression of risk by integrating data came from sky, ground and space. The risk indexes were divided into four classes by data mining method, and the grade maps of drought disaster risk were drawn by GIS. It is shown that the spatial and temporal risk distributions of maize at each growth stage changed over time. The model has been verified against reduction in maize yield caused by drought. It demonstrated the reasonability, feasibility and reliability of the model and the methodology. The dynamic risk assessment of regional drought disaster for maize can be used as a tool, which can timely monitor the status (the possibility and extent of drought) and trends of regional drought disaster. The results obtained in this study can provide the latest information of regional drought disaster and the decision-making basis of disaster prevention and mitigation for government management and farmers.