STUDY ON THE MAIN CLIMATE MODES OF SHANDONG PRECIPITATION AND THEIR RELATIONS WITH THE EAST ASIAN WESTERLY JET

Summer precipitation patterns of Shandong Province are relatively independent with regard to the whole eastern China region.To study the rules and causes of precipitation variations,three main climate modes-on the annual,seasonal,and climatic intra-seasonal oscillation(CISO) scales-are extracted using a harmonic analysis method based on daily precipitation of Shandong during 1965-2009 and multi-year averaged pentad precipitation at 722 stations in China during 1971-2000.Among the three precipitation climate modes,the annual mode is closely related to the annual cycle of Earth-Atmosphere thermal system,which is characterized by the periodic dry and wet seasons.The seasonal mode reflects the monsoon effect on precipitation and the main flood season’s contribution to annual precipitation variations.As an important climatic signal,the CISO mode is more evident during summer monsoon.The gradual modulations of the CISO mode,seasonal mode,and annual mode control the annual variation of precipitation.To study the relationship between precipitation climate modes and atmospheric circulations,an East Asian Westerly Jet Index(EAWJI) is defined in this paper.It is revealed that precipitation of Shandong is closely related to EAWJI in all climate modes.A wet or dry phase of each climate mode corresponds to a specific atmospheric circulation pattern.The phase of the annual mode is reverse to that of EAWJI.During the wet phase of the seasonal mode(weak phase of EAWJI),the atmospheric circulation in and around Shandong is characterized by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.A reversed atmospheric circulation exists for the dry phase(strong phase for EAWJI).In the summer wet phase of CISO mode(strong phase of EAWJI),Shandong is controlled by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.Again,the dry phase is corresponding to a reversed circulation structure.The methodology employed in this research,i.e.studying the precipitation climatic variations in terms of independent components of different temporal scales,provides a new approach for annual and seasonal precipitation prediction.     

11月气候异常型及前期环流信号

利用全国160站1951—2008年11月温度、降水资料和同期秋季NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa高度场再分析资料,分析了我国东部季风区11月暖湿、暖干、冷湿、冷干年同期环流特征,并对同期、前期环流特征进行了差异t检验。结果表明:暖型 (冷型) 同期环流对应乌拉尔山阻塞高压不明显 (明显),欧亚中高纬度地区盛行纬向 (经向) 环流;干型 (湿型) 同期环流对应西太平洋副热带高压偏弱 (强)、偏东 (西)。差异t检验分布特征表明:在亚洲中高纬度地区,暖干、冷湿型 (暖湿、冷干型) 同期环流主要表现为南北 (东西) 气压场的差异;暖干、冷湿型的前期和同期环流特征分别具有EU (Eurasia) 和反EU遥相关距平结构,而暖湿、冷干型前期和同期环流特征分别具有反PNA (Pacific/North American) 和PNA遥相关距平结构。     

Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001

Summary In this study, the trends of annual and seasonal precipitation time series were examined on the basis of measurements of 22 surface stations in Greece for the period 1955–2001, and satellite data during the period 1980–2001. For this purpose, two statistical tests based on the least square method and one based on the Mann-Kendall test, which is also capable of detecting the starting year of possible climatic discontinuities or changes, are applied. Greece, in general, presents a clear significant downward trend in annual precipitation for the period 1955–2001, which is determined by the respective decreasing trend in winter precipitation. Both winter and annual series exhibit a downward trend with a starting year being 1984. Satellite-derived precipitation time series could be an alternative means for diagnosing the variability of precipitation in Greece and detecting trends provided that they have been adjusted by surface measurements in the wider area of interest. The relationship between precipitation variability in Greece and atmospheric circulation was also examined using correlation analysis with three circulation indices: the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), a Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI) and a new Mediterranean Circulation Index (MCI). NAOI is the index that presented the most interesting correlation with winter, summer and annual precipitation in Greece, whereas the MOI and MCI were found to explain a significant proportion of annual and summer precipitation variability, respectively. The observed downward trend in winter and annual precipitation in Greece is linked mainly to a rising trend in the hemispheric circulation modes of the NAO, which are connected with the Mediterranean Oscillation Index.     

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation in Vojvodina,Serbia

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation observed at 92 stations in Vojvodina (Serbia) were analyzed during the period 1946–2006. The rainfall series were examined by means of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The first set of singular vectors explains from 68.8 % (in summer) to 81.8 % (in winter) of the total variance. The temporal variability of the time series associated with the main EOF configurations (the principal components, PCs) was examined using the Mann–Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The time series of PC1 revealed decreasing trend in the winter and spring precipitation and increasing trend in the autumn, summer, and annual precipitation. The relationships between the first PC and circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, were also investigated. The PC1, displaying temporal behavior of the first mode, demonstrated evident correspondence with the NAO index in analysis of the annual, winter, and autumn precipitation. Power spectra of the PC1 show statistically significant oscillations of about 3.3 years for the spring precipitation and about 8 and 15 years for the winter precipitation. Comparisons with spectral analysis of authors for some regions in Europe, most of them in the Mediterranean domain, show that similar periodicities are detected.     

佛山市前汛期旱涝及其环流异常特征

基于佛山市降水量和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用二维风场差异的显著性检验方法等,分析了佛山市前汛期降水异常特征及旱、涝年水平风场和垂直经圈环流的差异。结果表明,佛山市前汛期降水量存在多时间尺度振荡,降水量的气候变化趋势不明显。旱、涝年热带低纬度的南海中北部及西太平洋地区的850 hPa风场存在显著差异,影响前汛期旱涝的关键区是副高的西北侧和南侧。分析还表明,旱、涝年经圈环流差异显著,北半球风场显著区位于南海区域和华南地区,层次集中在大气低层和中层。     

1961—2019年河南秋季连阴雨天气气候特征分析

利用河南省103个地面气象站1961-2019年逐日资料,采用滑动平均、小波分析、EOF分解等方法分析了河南区域性秋季连阴雨降水的时空分布特征,采用自组织神经网络方法(SOM)对河南区域性秋季连阴雨环流进行客观分型。结果表明：河南区域性秋季连阴雨以7-9 d的过程居多,其次为10 d以上过程。20世纪60年代和80年代是河南区域性秋季连阴雨多发期,90年代为连阴雨少发期,70年代和21世纪10年代发生次数与近59 a年均频次基本持平,21世纪10年代河南区域性秋季连阴雨比其他年代强,20世纪90年代强度最弱。20世纪70年代区域性秋季连阴雨年平均过程降水量存在准5 a周期,21世纪00年代前半期及10年代区域性秋季连阴雨年平均过程降水量存在2-3 a周期。近59 a河南区域性秋季连阴雨平均降水量分布上,黄河以南地区比黄河以北地区降水多,山区比平原地区多,降水大值区与山区分布基本一致。河南区域性秋季连阴雨降水空间分布型上,最主要的特征是全省一致变化型,其次是南北反相型。SOM方法不仅可以区分出环流形态上的差别,还可以区分出环流型的发生时间和连阴雨期间环流的阶段性演变特征。SOM分型得到8类区域性连阴雨环流型,从天气学意义上可归结为阻塞型、低槽型和平直环流型。大部分河南区域性秋季连阴雨过程为2到3种环流型的组合,不同环流型之间存在转换关系。     

Time changes of atmospheric precipitation in Russia from the corrected data during 1936–2000

Homogeneous time series of atmospheric precipitation with corrected systematic errors of measurements at 100 stations in Russia for the period of 1936–2000 are obtained. Combined effects are considered of all kinds of systematic errors of standard network precipitation-measuring instruments (the raingauge with the Nifer shield and the Tret’yakov raingauge) on the measured precipitation totals. Comparative analysis is carried out of the measured and corrected long-term mean characteristics of precipitation amounts (annual totals, warm and cold season totals, and different types of precipitation). On the basis of the obtained archives of precipitation homogeneous time series, linear trends are estimated for the period under consideration with estimation of their statistical significance. Schematic charts are plotted and analyzed of time changes in the annual precipitation amounts and in the amounts of different types of precipitation.     

闽东干旱概况及夏季人工增雨作业天气形势分析

对闽东干旱的成因和干旱的环流形势进行了探讨,着重分析了夏旱期间人工增雨作业的天气形势以及不同形势、不同云型下的降水情况。结果表明:闽东干旱的形成与大型环流形势、地理因素、土壤植被等有关,平均而言,沿海干旱明显多于内陆山区;夏季发生干旱的机率最大而且强度级别高,西太平洋副热带高压是致旱的主要天气系统;在夏季,台风型(T)、弱流场型(R)是进行人工增雨作业的优势天气型,Cb、Cu、Sc云是开展人工增雨作业比较适合的作业云。这些结果为夏旱期间开展人工增雨作业提供了理论依据。     

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA

The spatio-temporal characteristics of typhoon precipitation over China are analyzed in this study. The results show that typhoon precipitation covers most of central-eastern China. Typhoon precipitation gradually decreases from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern mainland. The maximum annual typhoon precipitation exceeds 700 mm in central-eastern Taiwan and part of Hainan, while the minimum annual typhoon precipitation occurs in parts of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan, with values less than 10 mm. Generally, typhoons produce precipitation over China during April – December with a peak in August. The annual typhoon precipitation time series for observation stations are examined for long-term trends. The results show that decreasing trends exist in most of the stations from 1957 to 2004 and are statistically significant in parts of Taiwan, Hainan, coastal Southeast China and southern Northeast China. The anomaly of typhoon precipitation mainly results from that of the general circulation over Asia and the Walker Cell circulation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Typhoon torrential rain is one of the extreme rainfall events in the southeastern coastal regions and parts of central mainland. In these regions, torrential rains are mostly caused by typhoons.     

东北地区降水与大气环流关系

利用Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法, 将1951—2004年逐日的海平面气压场分型, 得到27种不同的环流型, 研究了大气环流型与我国东北地区降水的关系。给出了8种出现频率最高的主要环流型出现的规律及它们平均的环流形势, 分析了8种主要环流型下东北地区降水异常分布状况, 并选出东北地区资料齐全、有代表性的9个站点进行了深入细致地分析, 成功地建立了降水与环流型出现频率的统计关系, 并用此重建了9个代表站54年的降水序列。结果表明:Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法可以很好地应用于我国东北地区, 由此划分的环流型符合实际情况; 8种主要环流型与降水的空间分布特征有很好的对应关系; 所建立的9个代表站降水距平回归方程能够解释近54年各站的大部分降水变化, 进一步证明了东北地区降水与大气环流之间的密切关系。     

Moderate to heavy cold-weather precipitation occurrences in Tehran and the associated circulation types

Large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with 133 moderate to heavy cold-weather precipitation events recorded at Mehrabad station in Tehran, Iran, during the period 1951–2013 are analysed. To this end, the performance of un-rotated, orthogonally rotated and obliquely rotated solutions of T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is examined in classifying the atmospheric circulations into a few representative circulation types (CTs). The T-mode PCAs were applied to the 500-hPa geopotential height for the events in a domain from 10^°E to 70^°E and from 20^°N to 50^°N. The first six leading principal components were retained and then orthogonally and obliquely rotated using varimax and promax solutions, respectively. Statistical inter-comparison of the CTs obtained using the three solutions suggests that the obliquely rotated solution is the better choice for circulation classification in the present study. The six CTs obtained using the oblique rotation were then linked to the daily total precipitation and daily mean temperature variability at Tehran station as well as to the standardized anomalies of the daily total precipitation and mean daily temperature of a dense network of stations distributed across Iran. It is found that the CTs identified, though generally comparable in producing significant precipitation in Tehran, vary in their potential to bring cold weather and generate snowfall in Tehran specifically and in the country in general. While the first three CTs give rise to regional patterns of standardized precipitation anomalies centred in Tehran, the next three CTs leave a pronounced precipitation signature almost across the whole country. As regards the standardized temperature anomalies, with the exception of one CT that causes deep and widespread negative standardized anomalies over most parts of the country, the other CTs are characterized with a dipolar structure of a deep intrusion of cold weather to the west and prevailing warm weather to the east of the country.     

Winter precipitation variability and large-scale circulation patterns in Romania

Summary The spatial and temporal variability of winter precipitation and its links to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in Romania are examined. The data set is composed of observed rainfall at 30 meteorological stations during the 1961–1996 period. The large-scale field is represented by the observed geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) over the same period, covering the latitudinal belt between 20° N–90° N (resolution 2.5°×2.5°).The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) is applied to detect inhomogeneities in the data, and the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests are used in order to identify trends and change points in the winter precipitation time series. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique is used for data reduction in order to highlight the basic patterns of rainfall variability in Romania. The covariance map between precipitation EOF time series (PCs) and the Z500 field, as well as the correlation coefficients between the PCs and circulation indices are calculated in order to identify the influence of large-scale circulation patterns on winter precipitation in Romania.A significant decreasing trend is identified in winter precipitation with a downward shift in winter 1969/1970, most significant from a statistical point of view in the extra-Carpathian region. This change seems to be real since the SNHT test does not reveal any inhomogeneity during the period tested. Significant relationships are found between winter precipitation variability in Romania and the large-scale circulation pattern, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the blocking phenomenon in the Atlantic-European sector. The positive phase of the NAO and the reduction in blocking activity could be one of the causes of the decrease in winter precipitation in Romania.     

夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型的环流特征及预测信号

利用中国南方66站降水观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解（EOF）、合成分析和相关分析等方法,对夏季长江中下游和华南两类雨型进行了划分,对比分析了两类雨型同期大气环流和前期海温及环流的差异,以探讨两类雨型的形成机制及前期预测信号。结果表明:20世纪80年代之前华南型出现的频次较高,之后长江中下游型出现频次增多;长江中下游型年西太平洋副热带高压（副高）偏强偏西偏南,东亚夏季风（EASM）偏弱,副热带西风急流位置偏南,乌拉尔山阻塞高压（乌阻）和鄂霍次克海阻塞高压（鄂阻）较强,欧亚中高纬以经向环流为主,冷暖空气在长江中下游辐合,导致长江中下游降水偏多;华南型年大气环流与长江中下游型年大体相反,登陆华南的台风偏多,冷暖空气在华南地区辐合,导致华南地区降水偏多;其中副高的脊线位置和中高纬阻塞强弱是长江中下游型和华南型形成的关键因素。两类雨型前期海温分析表明,长江中下游型年,前冬赤道中东太平洋和印度洋偏暖,为典型的东部型El Ni?o,副热带南印度洋偶极子（SIOD）呈负位相,春季El Ni?o衰减,SIOD负位相也减弱,但印度洋持续增暖;华南型年,前冬和春季的海洋演变与长江中下游型年大体相反;关键区域海温与长江中下游夏季降水（YRR）和华南夏季降水（SCR）的年际关系存在年代际变化,YRR和SCR与前冬Ni?o3.4指数、SIOD指数和春季热带印度洋全区一致海温模态（IOBW）指数的相关关系在80年代之后逐步减弱,这主要是由于这三个关键海温指数与EASM及副高脊线的相关关系在80年代之后逐步减弱;两类雨型前期大气环流差异分析表明,春季大气环流的差异性要比前冬显著,长江中下游型年,春季副高、南海副高、马斯克林高压（马高）、澳大利亚高压（澳高）均偏强,大西洋欧洲区极涡强度偏弱,北太平洋涛动（NPO）呈正位相;华南型年春季的关键环流系统异常不明显,仅大西洋欧洲区极涡强度偏强,NPO呈负位相。前期海温演变及春季大气环流关键系统的异常可以作为两类雨型年的一些预测信号。     

Climatological Characteristics of Frontogenesis and Related Circulations over East China in June and July

Based on daily precipitation data from 212 stations in East China and NCEP/NCAR daily global final analysis data in June and July from 2000 to 2010, the climatological characteristics of frontogenesis and related circulations have been analyzed. The results demonstrate that frontogenesis function distributes nonuniformly in East China. The different terms of the kinematic frontogenesis show different intensities and distributions of frontogenesis. The strongest frontogenesis integrated from different kinematic frontogenesis terms is observed in the Jianghuai area. Frontogenesis events are separated into four types as per the different shear and convergence types of horizontal wind along the strong frontogenesis band at 850 hPa. The four types include the warm shear type, cold shear type (with two subtypes), west wind convergence type, and east wind convergence type. The events in different frontogenesis types occur with different frequencies over the past decade. The warm shear type occurs most frequently. Different types of frontogenesis have distinctive horizontal and vertical structures. Strong frontogenesis is featured with 340-K contour of θ_se parallel to the frontal zone in the vertical. Varied large-scale circulation patterns manifested in shifted location and strength of cyclone or anticyclone, wind convergence, as well as vertical circulation structure are associated with different types of frontogenesis. Moreover, a strong positive correlation between frontogenesis and precipitation is found, i.e., the stronger the frontogenesis, the more precipitation there is. Daily precipitation related to the warm shear type frontogenesis is the largest, and often occurs inside the frontal zone with the same orientation with the strong frontogenesis belt. The second largest daily precipitation occurs with the cold shear type frontogenesis, and related rainfall is usually observed to the south of the frontal zone, with the rain belt extending northeastward. Precipitation related to the west wind convergence type frontogenesis is the third largest, occurring mostly in the south of the frontal zone.     

近60年中国日降水量分区及气候特征

根据中国国家级地面气象站均一化降水数据集,使用1956~2015年512个台站的日降水量资料,通过旋转经验正交函数（REOF）得到七个分区。比较了各分区平均日降水量的年内变化和多年倾向率差异:我国偏南分区的小雨日数减少,大雨、暴雨日数、日降水量的区域年均值增加;偏北分区的小雨、大雨、暴雨日数、降水量年均值为递减;长江中下游区（东北区）日降水量、小雨日数、暴雨日数的年均值的近60年倾向率分别是0.0071 mm a-1（-0.0010 mm a-1）、-0.0729 d a-1（-0.0615 d a-1）、0.0132 d a-1（-0.0007 d a-1）。100°E以西地区:小雨、中雨日数在增加,无雨日数显著减少,日降水量的年均值呈递增特点。通过自相关函数和小波功率谱估计,揭示了七个分区的日降水量年均值普遍存在2~4 a周期震荡。使用NCEP/NCAR月均再分析资料,以区域日降水量年均值为指数得到500 hPa、700 hPa、850 hPa回归风系数场、旱涝年整场水汽通量和水汽通量散度差异场相结合分析,结果表明:"东高西低,南高北低"环流型和区域降水有密切关系,水汽差异场是上述环流特点的反映。     

Inter-annual temperature and precipitation variations over the Litani Basin in response to atmospheric circulation patterns

This study examines the sensitivity of a mid-size basin’s temperature and precipitation response to different global and regional climate circulation patterns. The implication of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Monsoon and ten other teleconnection patterns of the Northern Hemisphere are investigated. A methodology to generate a basin-scale, long-term monthly surface temperature and precipitation time series has been established using different statistical tests. The Litani River Basin is the focus of this study. It is located in Lebanon, east of the Mediterranean Basin, which is known to have diverse geophysical and environmental characteristics. It was selected to explore the influence of the diverse physical and topographical features on its hydroclimatological response to global and regional climate patterns. We also examine the opportunity of conducting related studies in areas with limited long-term measured climate and/or hydrological data. Litani's monthly precipitation and temperature data have been collected and statistically extrapolated using remotely sensed data products from satellites and as well as in situ gauges. Correlations between 13 different teleconnection indices and the basin’s precipitation and temperature series are investigated. The study shows that some of the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation variance can be partially associated with many atmospheric circulation patterns. This would give the opportunity to relate the natural climate variability with the watershed’s hydroclimatology performance and thus differentiate it from other anthropogenic induced climate change outcomes.     

一种经验建模的客观分型方法及其应用

介绍一种应用常规历史天气图资料进行天气学客观分的思路和方法,首先建立某种天气 若干环不充模型,然后确定各模型的判别条件和顺序,由计算机进行自动分型,和到各环流型样本,实现客观分型。此方法于威海市冬季分区降水预报系统 天气分型,卫水模型物理意义明确,识别近前和,系统自动化。指出了天气分型在数值预报产品释用中的重要性及应注意的问题。     

Modulation of monthly precipitation patterns over East China by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Previous studies suggest that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates annual and summer precipitation patterns over East China. In this study, the effect of the PDO on monthly precipitation anomalies over this region is investigated. The new results show that the effect is month-dependent. The well-known North–South dipole patterns of annual precipitation are dominated by the July–August precipitation. In other months, the corresponding patterns vary in strength, position, and even shape. For example, the May and June precipitation patterns show opposite signs to the July–August or annual mean patterns, whereas the September–December monthly precipitation anomalies show a triple pattern. Monthly precipitation patterns over East China are largely determined by large-scale moisture transport controlled by atmospheric circulation. The PDO affects East China precipitation patterns by modulating the large-scale circulation pattern.     

Circulation indices over the Mediterranean and Europe and their relationship with rainfall conditions across the Mediterranean

Summary Circulation types were identified by means of zonal and meridional indices calculated separately over ten different regions of 20° × 20° over the Mediterranean and Europe. Seasonal and annual rainfall totals in four stations Lisbon, Luqa (Malta), Athens and Jerusalem, were compared with circulation types for the period 1873–1991. Correlation coefficients of circulation indices with precipitation, for each station in each season were calculated and mapped.An oscillation in the meridional index during the winter and the spring, between the western and eastern Mediterranean, was detected.Time series analysis of the circulation indices demonstrates a significant reduction in zonality and an increase in meridionality mainly in spring and in summer, over most of the study area.With 9 Figures     

The band characteristics of long-term variation of precipitation and water resources in east asia monsoon region

In this paper, by means of the “CWH” (circulation-weather and climate-agricultural harvest) analytical meth-od, drawing from the monthly mean long-term data of the global sea level pressure field and annual precipitation data and grain yield data of some regions in East Asia, the time-space characters of low-frequency fluctuation of East Asian precipitation with band distribution are analyzed.It is revealed that the band of 20-30 years quasi-periodic fluctuation is located in Southeast Asia and the coastal areas of South China. Moving forward to west and north, the period of fluctuation of precipitation tends to become longer, both bands, with about 40-yr and 60-80-yr quasi-periodic fluctuation are respectively situated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and North or Southwest China. Furthermore, the relationships between the fluctuations of precipitation bands and large-scale circulations are analyzed. The relationships between precipita-tion and types of water resources are discussed as well. In addition, the tendency of long-term variation in rainfall is predicted.