欧亚积雪与京津冀秋季10—11月霾日频数年际变率的联系及其可能机制

基于1980—2017年京津冀地区定时观测资料、欧亚陆面积雪资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF）再分析资料,美国国家环境预报中心/大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析资料以及英国哈德莱中心提供的海冰密集度资料,分析了秋季10—11月京津冀霾日频数年际变率与同期欧亚积雪的物理联系,并通过气候统计诊断和敏感性试验探讨了积雪异常影响京津冀10—11月霾日频数年际变率的可能机理。结果表明,10—11月京津冀霾日频数年际变率与同期东欧—西伯利亚平原地区（记为R_Eu;50°~60°N,40°~80°E）积雪厚度和积雪覆盖度均呈现显著的正相关关系。R_Eu积雪正异常与其西北侧的挪威海—巴伦支海海域以及北欧到东欧地区上空大气冷源密切联系,该冷源可激发一个自上述区域途经R_Eu一直到东北亚的准正压大尺度纬向Rossby波列来调制影响京津冀霾日频数年际变率的关键环流系统,即东北亚异常反气旋。上述异常环流背景下,京津冀地区对流层低层为偏南风异常所控制,稳定大气层结易于建立,边界层高度偏低、地面风速偏弱且相对湿度偏高。该环境条件有利于霾天气发生发展,使得同期霾日偏多。作为预测信号,当前期9月楚科奇海—西波弗特海海冰偏少（多）时,10—11月京津冀霾日可能偏多（少）。     

冬春季节北极海冰的年际和年代际变化

利用1953～1990年海冰密集度资料,研究了冬、春季节北极海冰的时空变化特征.结果表明:冬,春季节海冰变率大的海区主要有巴伦支海、格陵兰海、巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡以及白令海;在巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡和白令海海区,冬季海冰变率比春季的大;冬、春季节喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积均与春季白令海海冰面积呈反向变化关系,与巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡海冰面积也存在相反的变化趋势.分析还表明:北极海冰面积还表现出年代际时间尺度变化,尤其在冬季.春季格陵兰海海冰明显存在12年变化周期,而在冬、春季节,喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰存在l0年变化周期.     

2007—2018年金衢盆地地闪气候特征大数据分析

本文选取2007—2018年金华地区地闪资料，研究分析金衢盆地地闪大数据的气候特征，及地闪资料与地形、海拔高度的对应关系.结果显示：1）2007—2018年金华地区地闪年均次数为45 481次，年均地闪密度为4.3次·km^-2·a^-1，地闪密度变化范围为2.64~5.92次·km^-2·a^-1；2）2007—2018年金华地区逐年地闪空间分布差异大，各年的空间分布不均匀，地闪主要分布在西南角的仙霞岭及其至会稽山沿线，以及兰溪市、婺城区及金东区交界的金华山，而东南角海拔较高的大盘山和北面的龙门山的总地闪密度高值面积较小；3）将总地闪密度分段与地形、海拔高度对比显示，80次·km^-2以上总地闪密度与高海拔山区有较好的一致性，强地闪（电流强度100 kA以上）密度为5~7次·km^-2的25个点中有23个点分布在海拔208~989 m山区；4）下垫面电阻率较低的三江流域地区地闪密度为金衢盆地内最大的"洼地"，杭长铁路及附近的地闪密度仅接近平均值，这与其他相关研究结论不一致；5）2007—2018年中有41.7％年份的地闪次数和总地闪次数随海拔高度增加，其他年份的地闪强度均值和总地闪强度均值随海拔高度增长，且均通过了显著性检验.     

全球多源海冰密集度融合资料研制试验

为了发展一套全球多源海冰密集度逐日融合资料,以欧洲气象卫星应用组织（EUMETSAT）海洋海冰应用中心（OSI SAF）海冰密集度数据、中国国家卫星气象中心（NSMC）的MWRI和VIRR全球海冰密集度数据、美国国家冰雪数据中心（NSIDC）的NISE海冰密集度数据、美国国家冰中心（NIC）的IMS北半球海冰数据为观测数据源,以ERA-Interim模式数据为背景场,采用以下方案开展融合试验。首先,对各数据源资料进行质量控制;其次,以OSI SAF海冰密集度数据为基准,采用概率密度函数（PDF）匹配方法订正其他卫星资料的系统误差;然后,根据订正后的误差生成超级观测场;最后,利用STMAS方法将超级观测场和作为背景场的ERA-Interim海冰密集度数据进行融合,生成全球逐日0.25°分辨率海冰密集度融合试验数据。通过与国际广泛使用的OISST、OSTIA海冰密集度数据对比,评估融合试验产品的质量。结果表明:融合方案中的PDF方法通过调整非基准资料的概率密度分布,实现非基准资料和基准资料概率密度分布一致,从而使3种海冰密集度卫星资料系统误差均显著减小;STMAS方法能够将超级观测场和背景场进行有效融合,生成融合试验产品;风云卫星数据的使用提高了融合数据生产的自主可控能力;同时,融合方案考虑了卫星数据源的时效性、获取的稳定性等因素。融合产品与OISST和OSTIA海冰密集度数据的空间分布在南、北极均高度吻合,相关系数均超过0.985,与OISST和OSTIA的偏差分别为?1.170%和0.276%,融合试验产品整体偏差介于两种资料之间,反映了试验产品系统误差较小的良好特性。可见,融合方案能够满足实时业务需要,融合试验产品具有较高的质量。      

长时间序列卫星遥感渤海海冰时空分布特征及与气温关系分析

利用气象卫星资料整理分析了1996—2011年冬季渤海海冰的时空分布变化:年际统计表明,单日海冰面积最大的3个年份分别是2011、2010和2001年,日最大冰面积均超过30000 km~2;单日海冰面积最小的3个年份分别是1999、2002和2007年,日最大冰面积均不超过10000 km~2。分区统计显示,海冰主要集中在辽东湾,其次是渤海湾,莱州湾最小;辽东湾海冰从东北向西南、从海滨到远海出现频率依次降低;渤海湾和莱州湾从海滨到远海,海冰的出现频率逐渐降低。在此基础上,分析了渤海逐日冰面积与营口站日均气温积温(≤-2℃)及气温的关系,结果表明渤海逐日冰面积与积温、气温之间均为负相关关系,其相关性在不同阶段表现不同:海冰发展期,渤海逐日冰面积与营口日均气温积温(≤-2℃)之间的相关性最为显著,相关系数为-0.90;海冰消融期,渤海逐日冰面积与营口3日(当日与前两日)平均气温的相关性最为显著,相关系数为-0.84;通过回归分析方法获得了渤海逐日冰面积与营口日均气温积温及3日平均气温的线性回归方程。最后,结合积温回归方程和3日平均气温回归方程,提出了分阶段的海冰面积预报方程,并利用该方程对2013和2014年度冬季渤海冰面积进行预报检验,检验结果证明上述方程具有一定的预报能力。     

2016年12月16~21日重度霾过程及大气环流异常

针对2016年12月16~21日华北黄淮及周边地区的重度霾过程开展了诊断分析,发现全球、区域大气环流异常和局地气象条件是此次重度霾形成的重要原因之一。在此次过程中,受重度霾影响的面积为71×10⁴ km²,霾持续时间达到6 d,过程最高小时细颗粒物（PM2.5）浓度超过1100 μg/m³。东大西洋/西俄罗斯和西太平洋波列（中高层）和北极涛动（近地面）均表现为显著的正位相型分布,综合调控了华北黄淮局地的环流场和气象条件,有利于霾的发生。华北、黄淮上空的异常反气旋能够有效抑制垂直运动,减弱水平风速。与之对应,近地面层为明显的弱低压区和偏南暖湿气流。从局地气象条件看,地面小风速、高湿度以及浅薄的边界层是促使本次重度霾发生的重要因子。     

一次强飑线过程多尺度回波系统特征分析

采用自动气象站观测资料、MICAPS天气图、江西二维和三维雷电数据和江西WebGIS雷达拼图等多源资料,分析了2021年5月10—11日江西强飑线天气过程的回波系统特征。结果表明,当江西处于500 hPa槽前、100 hPa出流区、850 hPa切变线和西南急流和925 hPa西南倒槽之中,有利于出现冰雹、雷暴大风、强雷电等天气;一次飑线过程有若干个不同尺度回波系统过程,中尺度对流回波系统、局地热对流雷暴回波、雷暴回波群、A飑线回波带、辐合线雷暴回波带、B飑线回波带等多尺度回波系统;直径d≤2 cm的冰雹发生在组合反射率(Composite Reflectivity, CR)回波强度超过60 dBZ并且强回波面积超过100 km²的回波中,当CR强度超过65 dBZ并且强回波面积超过300 km²时,容易出现d≥ 5 cm的大冰雹。     

东西伯利亚——波弗特海海冰多年代际变率及其与大西洋多年代际振荡的联系

基于哈得来中心（Hadley Centre）逐月的海表温度、海冰密集度资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）的大气环流再分析资料,分析了1950—2020年秋季（8—10月）东西伯利亚—波弗特海（East Siberian-Beaufort,EsCB）海冰年代际变化的时空特征,并阐述了大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）对EsCB海冰年代际变率的可能调制作用。结果表明,EsCB是秋季北极海冰年代际变化最主要的区域,该区海冰密集度年代际变率可占其异常总方差的40%以上。进一步研究发现,AMO对秋季EsCB海冰存在明显的调制作用,在AMO正位相,北大西洋正海温异常激发向极传播的大气罗斯贝波列,有利于北极中部出现高压异常,相应的大气绝热下沉运动使得对流层低层出现明显的升温,从而有利于EsCB海冰的融化。与此同时,地表升温和EsCB海冰消融会引起局地云量的增多、大气向下长波辐射增大,这反过来又使得地表气温升高,这种地表气温-云-长波辐射的正反馈过程有利于年代际海冰信号的长时间维持。耦合模式的北大西洋“起搏...     

孟加拉湾的叶绿素a,海表温度和风速的趋势

孟加拉湾（BoB）是一个高能量活跃的地区,其短期内的动态变化将对浮游环境产生巨大影响."风泵"能够在BoB海域导致垂直的混合从而影响海表温度和叶绿素浓度.本文对2006——2016年的月平均Aqua-MODIS叶绿素a （chl-a）浓度数据和Sea WiFS月度气候态数据进行了分析,研究了叶绿素浓度的时间/季节变化和温度以及风速的关系.基于季风期间的chl-a变异与海表温度（SST）,评估了在BoB海域它们之间的关系和变化.chl-a浓度值的趋势分析表明,该区域的垂直混合非常低,冬季最高,夏季最低.冬季最大chl-a浓度值为0.50 mg/m³,并且从2月开始下降到夏季季风期间.与冬季季风相比,夏季季风期间叶绿素表现出较低的浓度.在夏季季风期间,特别是在7月和8月,由于云层密集,卫星传感器无法准确捕获chl-a浓度值.chl-a浓度和SST之间相关系数R²值为0.218 1.     

CICE海冰模式中反照率相关参数对北极海冰模拟的影响

国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM2.0最新耦合了美国Los Alamos国家实验室发展的海冰模式CICE5.0,为试验模式中与反照率相关参数的敏感性及其对模拟结果的影响,提高模式对北极海冰的模拟能力,选取海冰模式中3个主要参数进行了敏感性试验。利用以BCC_CSM2.0耦合框架为基础建立的海冰-海洋耦合模式,选取CORE资料为大气强迫场开展试验,试验的3个参数分别为冰/雪表面反射率、雪粒半径和雪粒半径参考温度。结果表明,参数取值的不同对北极海冰的模拟有显著的影响,优化后的取值组合极大提高了模式的模拟能力,主要表现在:（1）改善了对北极冬季海冰厚度的模拟,海冰厚度增大,与观测资料更为吻合;（2）显著提高了对北极夏季海冰密集度的模拟能力,从而模拟的北极海冰范围年际循环与观测更为一致。参数取值的优化改进了模式对海冰反照率的模拟,进而影响了冰面短波辐射的吸收和海冰表层的融化,最终提高了模式对海冰密集度和厚度的模拟效果。      

The formation and maintenance of the North Water Polynya

Abstract

This paper investigates the formation and maintenance of the North Water Polynya, Baffin Bay in winter using a multi‐category sea‐ice model coupled with the Princeton ocean model. Monthly climatological atmospheric data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis provides the forcing. An objectively‐analysed climatology provides the initial ocean temperature and salinity. Wind stress drives the ice in a cyclonic gyre around northern Baffin Bay. Localized regions of thin ice form where wind drives ice away from coastlines or fast ice. The regions of thin ice are characterized by enhanced ice growth, exceeding 1.2 m mo^?1. In the regions of thin ice, surface ocean heat flux is also enhanced and is between 30–60 W m^?2. Surface heat flux is, in part, attributable to convective mixing and entrainment driven by ice growth. The surface heat flux reflects advection of the warm West Greenland Current. Heat and salt balances show that horizontal advective exchange counterbalances surface fluxes of heat and salt.     

Thinner Sea Ice Contribution to the Remarkable Polynya Formation North of Greenland in August 2018

In August 2018, a remarkable polynya was observed off the north coast of Greenland, a perennial ice zone where thick sea ice cover persists. In order to investigate the formation process of this polynya, satellite observations, a coupled iceocean model, ocean profiling data, and atmosphere reanalysis data were applied. We found that the thinnest sea ice cover in August since 1978(mean value of 1.1 m, compared to the average value of 2.8 m during 1978-2017) and the modest southerly wind caused by a positive North Atlantic Oscillation(mean value of 0.82, compared to the climatological value of-0.02) were responsible for the formation and maintenance of this polynya. The opening mechanism of this polynya differs from the one formed in February 2018 in the same area caused by persistent anomalously high wind. Sea ice drift patterns have become more responsive to the atmospheric forcing due to thinning of sea ice cover in this region.     

General Characteristics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over a Flaw Lead Polynya Region in Winter and Spring

A time series of microwave radiometric profiles over Arctic Canada’s Cape Bathurst (70°N, 124.5°W) flaw lead polynya region from 1 January to 30 June, 2008 was examined to determine the general characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer in winter and spring. A surface based or elevated inversion was present on 97% of winter (January–March) days, and on 77% of spring (April–June) days. The inversion was the deepest in the first week of March (≈1100 m), and the shallowest in June (≈250 m). The mean temperature and absolute humidity from the surface to the top of the inversion averaged 250.1 K (−23.1°C), and 0.56 × 10⁻³ kg m⁻³ in winter, and in spring averaged 267.5 K (−5.6°C), and 2.77 × 10⁻³ kg m⁻³. The median winter atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) potential temperature profile provided evidence of a shallow, weakly stable internal boundary layer (surface to 350 m) topped by an inversion (350–1,000 m). The median spring profile showed a shallow, near-neutral internal boundary layer (surface to 350 m) under an elevated inversion (600–800 m). The median ABL absolute humidity profiles were weakly positive in winter and negative in spring. Estimates of the convergence of sensible heat and water vapour from the surface that could have produced the turbulent internal boundary layers of the median profiles were 0.67 MJ m⁻² and 13.1 × 10⁻³ kg m⁻² for the winter season, and 0.66 MJ m⁻² and 33.4 × 10⁻³ kg m⁻² for the spring season. With fetches of 10–100 km, these accumulations may have resulted from a surface sensible heat flux of 15–185 W m⁻², plus a surface moisture flux of 0.001–0.013 mm h⁻¹ (or a latent heat flux of 0.7–8.8 W m⁻²) in winter, and 0.003–0.033 mm h⁻¹ (or a latent heat flux of 2–22 W m⁻²) in spring.     

Specific Relationship between the Surface Air Temperature and the Area of the Terra Nova Bay Polynya,Antarctica

Antarctic polynyas play an important role in regional atmosphere?ice?ocean interactions and are considered to help generate the global deep ocean conveyer belt.Polynyas therefore have a potential impact on the Earth’s climate in terms of the production of sea ice and high-salinity shelf water.In this study,we investigated the relationship between the area of the Terra Nova Bay polynya and the air temperature as well as the eastward and northward wind based on the ERA5 and ERAInterim reanalysis datasets and observations from automatic weather stations during the polar night.We examined the correlation between each factor and the polynya area under different temperature conditions.Previous studies have focused more on the effect of winds on the polynya,but the relationship between air temperature and the polynya area has not been fully investigated.Our study shows,eliminating the influence of winds,lower air temperature has a stronger positive correlation with the polynya area.The results show that the relationship between the polynya area and air temperature is more likely to be interactively influenced.As temperature drops,the relationship of the polynya area with air temperature becomes closer with increasing correlation coefficients.In the low temperature conditions,the correlation coefficients of the polynya area with air temperature are above 0.5,larger than that with the wind speed.     

Physical properties and isotopic characteristics of landfast sea ice around the North Water (NOW) Polynya region

Abstract

An ice core sampling program was conducted during the North Water (NOW) Polynya Project 1998 Experiment in northern Baffin Bay during April‐May 1998. The physical properties of snow and sea ice as well as the microstructure and stable isotopic composition of first‐year landfast sea ice near the polynya were investigated. The thickness of sea ice at the sampling sites ranged between 147 and 194 cm with thinner snow cover during the period between mid‐April and late May. The ice was characterized as typical first‐year landfast sea ice, being composed of a thin granular ice layer at the top and an underlying columnar ice layer towards the bottom of the ice. The samples obtained at a site closer to the ice edge of the polynya contained a thin granular ice layer originating from frazil ice near the ice bottom. Formation of frazil ice was considered to be caused by turbulent processes induced by winds, waves and currents forced from the polynya and also mixing with water masses produced at the polynya.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.