地形对重力惯性波传播与发展的影响

本文用ＷＫＫＢＪ方法研究了地形对重力惯性波传播与发展的影响，得到了地形影响下重力惯性波的波作用量守恒方程。结果表明：重力惯性波能量有向地形较高的区域传播的趋势，并且波包振幅上坡时加大，下坡时减小。     

台风中－α尺度重力惯性波的发展与暴雨增幅

通过数值模拟和诊断研究得出，９２１６号台风暴雨的增幅过程与台风中－α尺度重力惯性波的发展、传播，非均匀层结的分布以及积云对流潜热反馈有关。大尺度非线性平流项的作用激发出大尺度的重力惯性波，积云对流潜热加热作用导致非地转风场扰动大大加强，从而使重力惯性波波幅加大，上升运动增强，暴雨加大。当重力惯性波向稳定度减小的方向传播时，波能量最易加强     

斜压切变基流中横波型扰动的特征波动 Ⅱ:谱函数

“斜压切变基流中横波型扰动的特征波动Ⅰ谱点分布”一文中分析了斜压切变基流中横波型扰动的谱点分布，这里又对其谱函数进行了分析讨论。结果表明当基流在垂直方向存在切变时，重力惯性波与涡旋波的谱函数在垂直方向上均可出现临界层，临界层的高度随频率σ而变化，即重力惯性波与涡旋波都存在连续谱，但涡旋波与重力惯性波连续谱的结构却不同；对天气尺度扰动，两支重力惯性波和1支涡旋波的连续谱不重叠，此时每支波动仅有1个临界层；而对次天气尺度的扰动，重力惯性波与涡旋波的连续谱区会发生重叠，在连续谱的重叠区，重力惯性波仍只有1个临界层，但涡旋波则可以有2个或3个临界层。无论是涡旋波还是重力惯性波其连续谱的波包随时间都是衰减的，但涡旋波波包比重力惯性波波包衰减得慢。     

梅雨暴雨期重力惯性波的发展与雨带的活动

由1991年7月5—6日一次梅雨期暴雨过程的中尺度扰动场分析, 发现高低层重力惯性波的发展与传播和雨带、低涡的发展与传播有密切的联系, 高低层重力惯性波有明显不同的传播形式。结果表明:降水初期, 对流不稳定激发出重力惯性波, 低层南部相对稳定, 有向南传播的重力惯性波, 高层出现传播的重力惯性波, 高低层向南传播的重力惯性波有利于多条雨带的形成; 降水中期, 高层的重力惯性波出现围绕低层涡旋中心逆时针旋转, 降水也开始加大并东移; 高层向北传播的重力惯性波可导致低层的涡旋和降水发展。     

大地形上空地转基流中波动的传播和稳定性

研究表明，地形北坡上空东风基本气流中的重力惯性波最易出现不稳定发展，地形坡度大于１‰的地形南坡上空强西风气流中重力惯性波和地形罗斯贝波都是不稳定的。只有在西风气流中重力惯性波才会出现明显的相对基本气流的东、西传播现象。     

垂直切变基流中非地转涡旋波的不稳定

利用Boussinesq方程研究了扰动传播方向与垂直切变基流有一夹角时的不稳定问 题，即斜交型不稳定问题。当Richardson数不大时，在α中尺度波段其增长率最大，此时该斜交型不稳定的性质既不同于重力惯性波的对称不稳定，也与Rossby波的斜压不稳定有差异，而是非地转涡旋波的不稳定。     

重力波与低纬高原地区Mβ CSs地域特征的关系

利用MM5（V3.6）模式对2003年6月低纬高原地区一次大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟和地形敏感性试验,从重力波的角度研究低纬高原地区MβCSs生命史较短这一地域特征形成的原因。分析表明,大气稳定层结利于重力波的产生和传播,重力波的传播导致MβCSs的能量向两侧快速频散,使得成熟的MβCSs主体强度减弱,两侧有新的MβCSs生成并发展,中心降水也迅速减弱。地形敏感性试验表明,低纬高原地形使得大气在不稳定能量积累以后很快释放触发强降水,大气随即转化为稳定层结,利于重力波的快速传播和MβCSs主体能量的迅速频散,使得低纬高原地区触发暴雨的MβCSs生命史较短,引发的降水具有突发性强、历时短的特征。     

两层正压流体涡旋中螺旋波的不稳定

利用线性化的两层正压原始方程模型，对有水平和垂直切变基流的圆形涡旋中螺旋波的不稳定作了研究。结果表明，当基流失稳时，涡旋中不稳定扰动的厚度场、速度场在上、下两层都具有明显的螺旋结构，下层的螺旋结构要较上层复杂。基流垂直切变越大则越易失稳。失稳时上、下层扰动的配置接近反位相，故该螺旋波结构相应于斜压模。此时螺旋波上的扰动中心在切向是逆基流传播的，在径向则基本没有传播，而螺旋臂的整体运动缓慢。失稳的螺旋波其散度场要较涡度场明显，物理量的配置也大体符合重力惯性波的情况，故可认为其是重力惯性波的不稳定所致。本模型中该螺旋波的形态与实际热带气旋中的螺旋云(雨)带很相象。     

重力波与低纬高原地区ＭβＣＳｓ地域特征的关系

利用MM5（V3.6）模式对2003年6月低纬高原地区一次大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟和地形敏感性试验,从重力波的角度研究低纬高原地区MβCSｓ生命史较短这一地域特征形成的原因。分析表明,大气稳定层结利于重力波的产生和传播,重力波的传播导致MβCSｓ的能量向两侧快速频散,使得成熟的MβCSｓ主体强度减弱,两侧有新的MβCSｓ生成并发展,中心降水也迅速减弱。地形敏感性试验表明,低纬高原地形使得大气在不稳定能量积累以后很快释放触发强降水,大气随即转化为稳定层结,利于重力波的快速传播和MβCSｓ主体能量的迅速频散,使得低纬高原地区触发暴雨的MβCSｓ生命史较短,引发的降水具有突发性强、历时短的特征。     

切变基流中赤道Kelvin波及纬向对称扰动的稳定性

本文使用赤道β平面下的热带大气Boussinesq近似方程组,分析了纬向切变基流中的赤道Kelvin波以及纬向对称扰动的稳定性。研究结果表明,在纬向基本气流只具有y方向水平切变的情况之下,基本气流在y方向的切变并不能导致Kelvin波发生不稳定,只能导致不同的纬度上对应于Kelvin波传播的相速度有所不同。扰动位势和扰动风速等物理量在y方向的分布特征与基本气流无关。在只考虑垂直切变基流时,要存在稳定的相对于平均基流向东传播的Kelvin波必须要满足Richardson数Ri>2的条件。基本气流在垂直方向的切变也不能导致Kel-vin波发生不稳定,只能导致Kelvin波的相速度发生Doppler频移效应。扰动位势以及扰动速度在y方向的分布特征与基本气流在垂直方向的切变有关。当风的垂直切变大于零时,对流层低层的扰动位势和扰动速度沿y轴的正反方向衰减较快;而当风的垂直切变小于零时,对流层高层的扰动位势和扰动速度沿y轴的正反方向衰减较快。对于沿纬圈方向的对称天气系统,只要风的垂直切变较大,满足Ri<1时,低纬重力惯性内波一定会发生不稳定。而当基本气流的垂直切变较小(Ri>1)时,本文则给出了该扰动发生不稳定的判据条件。只要风的水平切变足够大,大于某一临界值(该临界值与垂直波数m,β因子,静力稳定度N2以及Richardson数Ri有关),在赤道y—z平面上的重力惯性内波也会发生不稳定,从而引起这种沿x轴对称扰动的激发产生与发展。     

安阳区域性夏季大旱成因分析

利用1957～1998年安阳区域夏季降水资料，确定安阳区域性夏季大旱的标准，分析了大旱成因：东亚沿海低槽较常年异常深厚和偏东以及西太平洋副高异常偏东、偏南和偏弱；当年6～8月太阳黑子相对平均数处于谷点或从谷点开始上升时期；当年春季出现厄尔尼诺或存在厄尔尼诺现象，绝大部分安阳降水偏少或特少，出现干旱或大旱；6～8月西风急流轴异常偏北，也是造成安阳区域性夏季大旱的原因之一。     

青藏高原大气热量源汇年际变化青藏高原大气热量源汇年际变化

本文使用1961～1995年逐月青藏高原地区大气视热量源汇＜Ql＞资料、1961～1990年青藏高原地区积雪日数和积雪深度资料、美国NCEP／NCAR的再分析资料以及1975～1994年全球OLR资料，讨论了高原大气热状况年际变化及其与大气环流的关系，发现：高原地区大气热源年际变化明显，其中春季和秋季高原地区＜Ql＞的变率最大，并且水平分布很不均匀；当冬季高原冷源弱(或强)时，东亚大槽位置偏东(或西)，对应着东亚强(或弱)的冬季风；夏季高原热源强(或弱)的年份，在高原及其邻近地区的对流层中、低层为偏差气旋环流(或反气旋环流)，在中国长江流域低层为异常的西南风(或东北风)，对应着东亚强(或弱)的夏季风，夏季高原热源强度还与南亚高压的强度和位置有关；春季4月的积雪状况与夏季高原大气热源强度有明显关系；夏季高原热源与同期青藏高原东南部、孟加拉湾、中南半岛、东南亚、中国西南部、长江流域和从黄海到到日本海一带对流有明显正相关     

Effects of the southern oscillation on the probability for climatic categories of monthly rainfall, in a semi-arid region in the southern mid-latitudes

In many regions of the world, planning agricultural and water management activities is usually done based on probabilities for monthly rainfall, taking on values on specified intervals of values. These intervals of monthly rainfall amounts are commonly grouped into three categories: drought, normal rainfall, and abundant rainfall. Changes in the probabilities for occurrence of monthly rainfall amounts within these climatic rainfall categories will influence the decisions farmers and water managers will take (for example, crops to cultivate, flood preparedness, and operations of water reservoirs). This research explores the changes produced by the SO (Southern Oscillation) on the probability that the areal average of monthly rainfall (AAvMR) takes on values belonging to specified climatic rainfall categories. The semi-arid region under study is a major agricultural region in central Argentina; weather effects on agriculture in this region influence the world market of several crops. The evolution of the Southern Oscillation was divided into three phases: LSOI (low Southern Oscillation index phase, that includes ENSO events), NSOI (neutral SOI phase), and HSOI (high SOI phase that includes La Niña–SO events). The following are the criteria defining the three phases of the SO: (1) low SOI (ENSO), where the five-month moving average of the SO index, SOI, is less than −0.5 standard deviation during at least five consecutive months, and is equal to or less than −1 standard deviation during at least one month; (2) high SOI (La Niña–SO), where the SOI is greater than 0.5 standard deviation during at least five consecutive months, and is equal to or greater than 1 standard deviation during at least one month; and (3) neutral SOI (transition between extremes), where the SOI does not correspond to low SOI nor to high SOI. It was found that the Southern Oscillation influences the probability distribution of monthly rainfall only in four months of the year. Findings show that monthly rainfall has a complex response to the evolution of the SO. The response is not restricted to higher probability for occurrence of abundant rainfall or drought categories during low SOI (ENSO) or high SOI (La Niña–SO) episodes, respectively. The LSOI (ENSO) phase influences the AAvMR in several ways: depending on the month, it increases or decreases the probability of the abundant rainfall category. LSOI (ENSO) also increases or decreases, depending on the month, the probability of the normal rainfall category. It also decreases the probability that AAvMR takes on values in the drought category. A similar kind of complex response of monthly rainfall amounts occurs when the active phase is the HSOI (La Niña–SO). The responses are: (1) the probability of the category `drought' increases only in three months of the year, (2) increase or decrease of the probability of the normal rainfall category, depending on the month, and (3) decrease of the probability of the abundant rainfall category. Finally, the effects of NSOI (neutral phase of the SO) are not negligible. Depending on the month, NSOI episodes increase or decrease the probability of drought, or abundant rainfall, or normal rainfall categories.     

青藏高原大气热量源汇年际变化及其与大气环流的关系(英文)

本文使用１９６１～１９９５年逐月青藏高原地区大气机热量源汇＜Ｑ１＞资料、１９６１～１９９０年青藏高原地区积雪日数和积雪深度资料、美国ＮＣＥＰ／ ＮＣＡＲ的再分析资料以及１９７５～１９９４年全球ＯＬＲ资料，讨论了高原大气热状况年际变化及其与大气环流的关系，发现：高原地区大气热源年际变化明显，其中春季和秋季高原地区＜Ｑ１＞的变率最大，并且水平分布很不均匀；当冬季高原冷源弱（或强）时，东亚大槽位置偏东（或西），对应着东亚强（或弱）的冬季风；夏季高原热源强（或弱）的年份，在高原及其邻近地区的对流层中、低层为偏差气旋环流（或反气旋环流），在中国长江流域低层为异常的西南风（或东北风），对应着东亚强（或弱）的夏季风，夏季高原热源强度还与南亚高压的强度和位置有关；春季４月的积雪状况与夏季高原大气热源强度有明显关系；夏季高原热源与同期青藏高原东南部、孟加拉湾、中南半岛、东南亚、中国西南部、长江流域和从黄海到到日本海一带对流有明显正相关。     

太平洋-印度洋暖池次表层水温对广东旱涝的影响

为探索次表层水温对广东旱涝的影响,用Argo剖面浮标等实测资料,分析了太平洋-印度洋暖池(简称太-印暖池)次表层水温异常对广东旱涝的影响。结果表明:冬季,太-印暖池次表层水温偏暖(冷)时,可能引起Walker环流加强(减弱),夏季西北太平洋副热带高压强度较常年同期偏弱(强),位置偏北(南),直接导致南海夏季风爆发时间偏早(晚),有利(不利)于西南部暖湿海洋水汽向广东输送,导致广东降水偏多(少)。冬季,太-印暖池次表层水温偏暖(冷),翌年广东降水偏多(少),出现涝年(旱年)是主要现象。     

Uncertainty in the Specification of Surface Characteristics, Part ii: Hierarchy of Interaction-Explicit Statistical Analysis

The uncertainty in the specification of surface characteristics in soil-vegetation- atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) schemes within planetary boundary-layer (PBL) or mesoscale models is addressed. The hypothesis to be tested is whether the errors in the specification of the individual parameters are accumulative or whether they tend to balance each other in the overall sense for the system. A hierarchy of statistical applications is developed: classical one-at-a-time (OAT) approach, level 1; linear analysis of variance (ANOVA), level 1.5; fractional factorial (FF), or level 2; two-factor interaction (TFI) technique, or level 2.5; and a non-linear response surface methodology (RSM), or level 3. Using the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) observations for June 6, 1987 as the initial condition for a SVAT scheme dynamically coupled to a PBL model, the interactions between uncertainty errors are analyzed. A secondary objective addresses the temporal changes in the uncertainty pattern using data for morning, afternoon, and evening conditions. It is found that the outcome from the level 1 OAT-like studies can be considered as the limiting uncertainty values for the majority of mesoscale cases. From the higher-level analyses, it is concluded that for most of the moderate surface scenarios, the effective uncertainty from the individual parameters is balanced and thus lowered. However, for the extreme cases, such as near wilting or saturation soil moisture, the uncertainties add up synergistically and these effects can be even greater than those from the outcomes of the OAT-like studies. Thus, parameter uncertainty cannot be simply related to its deviation alone, but is also dependent on other parameter settings. Also, from the temporal changes in the interaction pattern studies, it is found that, for the morning case soil texture is the important parameter, for afternoon vegetation parameters are crucial, while for the evening case soil moisture is capable of propagating maximum uncertainty in the SVAT processes. Finally, a generic hypothesis is presented that an appropriate question for analysis has to be rephrased from the previous 'which parameters are significant?’ to 'what scenarios make a particular parameter significant?’     

北方15个大型城市总悬浮颗粒物的季节变化

对1998年7月至1999年6月北方15个大型城市空气质量监测结果进行了分析。结果表明：（1）中国北方大型城市（北京除外）大气中的首要污染物是总悬浮颗粒物,年平均发生频数在70%～100%之间。（2）各大城市空气质量为II级的发生频数均在夏、秋季高,春、冬季低。局地因素（当地的气象条件、地貌状况、植被分布以及人们的活动状况）是形成这种季节变化的主要原因。（3）空气质量为III级的发生频数不同城市有不同的季节性。除局地因素的影响外,邻近城市之间的相互输送是一个主要原因。（4）各大城市空气质量IV级的发生频数均在春、冬季高,夏、秋季低。春、冬季节北方多大风或强风天气引起西北干旱区沙、尘的长距离输送是产生这种季节变化的根本原因。这也说明西北干旱区的绿化、固沙工作迫切需要加强。     

不同地转速度下的冬季大气环流及气候异常的数值模拟

利用IAP二层全球大气环流模式，进行改变地球自转速度下冬季大气环流及气候异常的数值模拟。其中试验1: 设25 h/d (350 d/a)；试验2:设23 h/d (381 d/a)；控制运行:24 h/d (365 d/a)。联系从古至今地球自转逐渐减慢的情况，主要讨论地转减慢对冬季大气环流和气候的影响。结果表明，地球自转速度减慢以后，能使西风急流加强，南极附近增温。     

Climatological characteristics of the moisture budget and their anomalies over the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean

The climatological characteristics of the moisture budget over the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean (AIPO) and its adjacent regions as well as their anomalies have been estimated in this study. The main results are as follows. In the winter, the northeasterly moisture transport covers the extensive areas at the lower latitudes of the AIPO. The westerly and northerly moisture transport is the major source and the South Indian Ocean (SIO) is the moisture sink. In the summer, influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal wind, the cross-equatorial southwesterly moisture transport across Somali originating from the SIO is transported through the Arabian Sea (AS), the Bay of Bengal (BOB), and the South China Sea (SCS) to eastern China. The AIPO is controlled by the southwesterly moisture transport. The net moisture influx over the AIPO has obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. From the mid- or late 1970s, the influxes over the SIO, the AS, the northern part of the western North Pacific (NWNP), and North China (NC) as well as South China (SC) begin to decrease abruptly, while those over Northeast China (NEC) and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins (YHRB) have increased remarkably. As a whole, the net moisture influxes over the BOB and the southern part of the western North Pacific (SWNP) in the recent 50 years take on a linear increasing trend. However, the transition timing for these two regions is different with the former being at the mid- or late 1980s and the latter occurring earlier, approximately at the early stage of the 1970s. The anomalous moisture source associated with the precipitation anomalies is different from the normal conditions of the summer precipitation. For the drought or flood years or the years of El Ni\~no and its following years, the anomalous moisture transport originating from the western North Pacific (WNP) is the vital source of the anomalous precipitation over eastern China, which is greatly related with the variation of the subtropical Pacific high.     

A note on fluctuations of the Nile river flood levels (715–1470)

Summary Climate episodes, lasting a century or longer, of low and high annual Nile flood level minima (from 715 to 1470) are defined by a lowpass filter. Their relation to fluctuations of shorter or longer periodicity (less than or greater than 25 years) is deduced from the power spectral density of a hundred year window moving over the time series. Low flood climate and enhanced variance of short period fluctuations are significantly correlated characterizing reduced persistence of fluctuations during dry climate conditions. There is only a qualitative indication of enhanced long period variability (or enhanced persistence) during high flood levels.With 5 Figures