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震后企业停产减产损失估计方法的研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
企业停产减产损失是地震间接损失的重要组成部分,本文根据唐山地震的震害资料,提出了地震破坏后一个地区或城市因停产和减产而造成的经济损失的一个估计方法,为估计地城的时间损失提供了一个可行的途径,此法广泛适用于震后经济损失估计和震害预测工作。 相似文献
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要估计一个地区或地震带未来几十年至一、二百年的地震危险性,目前许多学者都认为应该把该地区的地质资料如活动断裂的运动速率与规模、历史地震资料和仪器记录的地震资料结合起来运用,以综合评定这一地区的地震活动性。为此,一些学者提出了几种计算地震平均重复周期的方法。但所有这些方法均需要估计某些不同的参数,而这些参数的估计往往具有主观性、不确定性。如何掌握最后结果的不确定性的大小,这是地震危险性分析中尚未解决的一个重要问题。本文提出了函数不确定性的一种模糊数学处理 相似文献
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在地震危险性分析中,历史地震资料是确定地震活动性参数的关键。鉴于我国西部地震资料记载年限短,地震活动水平高的情况,本文提出一种对中国西部地区如何使用有限资料,确定未来地震活动水平和合理估计地震活动性参数的方法。该方法是引入相对应变这一物理量,通过分析各地震带中强以上地震在时间上的相对应变释放速率,达到尽可能合理估计地震活动性参数的目的。 相似文献
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地震灾害损失初步评估方法研究 总被引:6,自引:2,他引:4
通过搜集地震灾害及经济损失评估资料,研究地震灾害特征,总结经济损失规律,提取地震灾害损失评估经验模型。以此为基础,提出一种初步评估地震灾害经济损失的方法。研究震级与人员伤亡的关系,形成人员伤亡评估经验模型;采用适合本地区的人员伤亡评估经验模型,估算人员伤亡。研究历史地震烈度分布特征,根据震情速报的地点、震级初步确定地震灾区范围;按烈度分布的一般规律初步划分评估区;结合地震应急数据库统计不同评估区内房屋建筑面积,或者查阅当地年鉴统计不同评估区内人口数,按人均房屋建筑面积估算灾区房屋建筑面积;研究历史地震房屋建筑震害,给出房屋建筑地震破坏比经验模型(震害矩阵);按国家标准《地震现场工作第4部分:灾害直接损失评估》(2005)选取适合的损失比;收集不同结构类型房屋建筑的重置单价。遵循地震灾害损失评估原理,可以快速评估计算房屋建筑的地震灾害经济损失。研究历史地震中其他工程结构经济损失与地震灾害总损失的关系,给出其他工程结构经济损失占地震灾害总损失比例的经验模型,据此初步估计其他工程结构的经济损失。 相似文献
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不规则采样地震数据会对地震数据的多道处理造成严重影响,将非均匀Fourier变换和贝叶斯参数反演方法相结合,对不规则空间带限地震数据进行反演重建.对每一个频率依据最小视速度确定出重建数据的带宽,然后从不规则地震数据中估计出重建数据的空间Fourier系数.将不规则地震数据重建视为信息重建的地球物理反演问题,运用贝叶斯参数反演理论来估计Fourier系数.在反演求解时,使用共轭梯度算法,以保证求解的稳定性,加快解的收敛速度.理论模型和实际资料处理验证了本方法的有效性和实用性. 相似文献
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采用统计拟合的方法,详细分析了汶川地震震后恢复重建工程资金的分布特点,依据震后恢复重建工程资金与烈度、人口、GDP和损失的拟合关系,提出了基于人口、地震灾害损失、GDP等因素的3个震后恢复重建工程资金快速评估模型,并利用宁洱地震数据验证经验公式的可行性。震后恢复工程资金分布特点及资金评估经验公式对未来地震进行恢复重建规划有良好的借鉴作用。 相似文献
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历史地震宏观烈度资料指史料中对地震破坏程度的记录,是研究历史地震最基本也是最重要的数据来源.由于有仪器记录地震波形的时间相对短暂,对历史地震震源参数的估算成为地震危险性分析的重要组成部分,前人尝试使用不同方法解决这一问题.本文以使用的工具和计算手段为依据,分类介绍了基于烈度资料估计震源参数的主要方法,对这些方法的优势、不足和应用范围做了概述,并展望了利用烈度资料估计震源参数研究的发展方向. 相似文献
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以基础设施直接经济损失为基础,利用统计拟合方法提出了基于损失的基础设施震后恢复重建工程资金快速评估方法,并以地震案例验算快速评估方法的可行性。该方法计算简单,可为政府相关部门提供恢复重建以及投资的建议,有助于地震灾区快速展开恢复重建工作。 相似文献
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The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Robin Spence Emily So Sarah Jenny Hervé Castella Michael Ewald Edmund Booth 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(3):463-483
For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product
but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in
the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine
earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings
to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical
damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced
by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent
input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information
about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability
Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings
classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from
the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the
basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions
made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects
of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake
scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment
of uncertainty within the model. 相似文献
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地震人员伤亡估算方法研究 总被引:19,自引:1,他引:18
本文将目前国内外地震人员伤亡的评估方法区分为将生命损失用货币单位来衡量和单独估算人员伤亡数量两大类,并对评估方法进行了系统归纳总结,在此基础上,利用以倒塌率为主要影响因素的6种估算方法对1976年唐山地震,1996年云南丽江7.0级地震及内蒙古包头西6.4级地震的人员伤亡进行了评估,并与三次地震人员伤亡的实际统计结构进行了比较,最后,提出了一种较精确,适用的伤亡评估方法。 相似文献
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The housing loss assessment of rural villages caused by earthquake disaster in Yunnan Province 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Introduction In accordance with the systematical theory of natural disaster, the intensity of disaster-causing factor and the frangibility of the disaster-bearing body decide the disaster degree (SHI, 1991, 2002). The building facilities is the uppermost disaster-bearing body in the earthquake disaster system, as the population and fortune in the city are concentrated, the density of the housings is large, the antiseismic and disaster reduction of the city have always been an important aspect… 相似文献
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设定地震及其烈度影响判别 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
设定地震常用于震害预测、地震小区划和重大工程选址,烈度衰减模型反映了地震引起的地面震动及其影响的强弱程度分布。设定地震包括确定性和非确定性设定两种方法,确定性方法基于构造或历史地震,非确定性方法是基于概率危险性方法,用于估计区域或城市未来可能遭遇的地震危险。缺失等震线或震害记载不详的历史地震和概率设定地震都不能确切地反映地震破坏影响,借助于烈度衰减关系模型和GIS,可直观地判别其影响分布情况,便于设定地震的取舍。 相似文献
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Chen Yong Chen QifuState Seismological Bureau Beijing ChinaCenter for Analysis Prediction SSB Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1995,(4)
The historical earthquake catalogue of China has lasted more than 3000 years,and most of its data are inferred from historical records.The earthquake catalogue in earlier times is not complete owing to various reasons,so some events are lost.This paper estimates the loss rate of earthquakes with various magnitudes in the historical earthquake catalogue for different time intervals quantitatively by using the Gutenberg-Richter formula and modern instrumental records,which will provide the references for statistic research in seismicity. 相似文献
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Ground shaking intensity varies spatially in earthquakes, and many studies have estimated correlations of intensity from past earthquake data. This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty in the estimation of correlations and true variability in correlations from earthquake to earthquake. A procedure for evaluating estimation uncertainty is proposed and used to evaluate several methods that have been used in past studies to estimate correlations. The results indicate that a weighted least squares algorithm is most effective in estimating spatial correlation models and that earthquakes with at least 100 recordings are needed to produce informative earthquake-specific estimates of spatial correlations. The proposed procedure is also used to distinguish between estimation uncertainty and the true variability in model parameters that exist in a given data set. The estimation uncertainty is seen to vary between well-recorded and poorly recorded earthquakes, whereas the true variability is more stable. 相似文献
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Weimin Dong Ph.D 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2002,1(1):145-151
Internationally earthquake insurance, like all other insurance (fire, auto), adopted actuarial approach in the past, which
is, based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate. Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with
severe consequence, irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many
insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994.
Along with recent advances in earth science, computer science and engineering, computerized loss estimation methodologies
based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with
reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques.
This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can
use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad.
Supported partially by: Institute of Engineering Mechanics, CSB 相似文献