| 强震人员损失回归预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晓杰,姜立新,杨天青.强震人员损失回归预测方法[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):44-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晓杰 姜立新 杨天青 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京,100036
2. 中国地震台网中心,北京,100045 |
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| 摘 要： | 在回顾近年对地震人员损失预测的研究工作的基础上,根据USGS的PAGER系统中地震人员损失回归模型,利用发生在1970-2008年间的128条地震现场调查灾害记录建立了我国东、西部区域适用的地震人员损失预测模型;并利用发生在1980-2007年间的234条地震损失记录建立了地震人员重伤数与人员死亡数的回归关系;最后利用模型对2008年四川汶川地震的人员损失进行评估计算,得到了与实际震害损失相接近的评估结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震人员损失 区域适用 Nelder-Mead数值优化算法 经验回归 对数正态分布 公里网格 |
Estimation of Casualty in Strong Earthquake Using Empirical Regression Method |
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| LI Xiao-jie,JIANG Li-xin,YANG Tian-qing.Estimation of Casualty in Strong Earthquake Using Empirical Regression Method[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):44-49. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiao-jie JIANG Li-xin YANG Tian-qing |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Earthquake Science,CEA,Beijing 100036,China;2.China Earthquake Network Center,CEA,Beijing 100045,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the review of researches on several models for earthquake casualty estimation in recent years,according to the empirical estimation model of PAGER system which is released by USGS in October,2007,two regional applicable earthquake casualty estimation models are developed using the loss records of 128 earthquakes from 1970 to 2008 in China.And using 234 earthquakes occurred from 1980 to 2007,a linear regression relationship between the number of the seriously injured and the number of death caused by earthquakes is established.At last,by comparing the estimation of casualty using the models with the actual number of victims in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,it is proved that the model can make approximate estimation. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake casualty Regional applicability Numerical optimal algorithm Empirical regression Lognormal distribution km2 Grid |
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