2005年江西晚稻飞虱大发生气象成因初步分析

介绍了江西省稻飞虱历年发生概况,以及2005年江西稻飞虱发生特点,并从2005年副高脊线位置与飞虱早迁、汛期降雨峰值与飞虱多迁、台风环流与飞虱秋季回迁、夏秋季温湿条件与飞虱生长繁殖的关系等方面,进行了稻飞虱大发生的气象成因分析,力图为今后建立稻飞虱发生发展气象预测模型,开展灾害监测与预报提供依据.分析结果表明,2005年江西省晚稻飞虱具有发生时间早、面积广、为害重等特点,为历史罕见大爆发;稻飞虱主要来源于外地迁入,有春季迁入及秋季回迁2种;副高脊线位置偏南,西南气流强盛,导致春季气候适宜,暖湿气流活跃,强降水多,有利春季稻飞虱早迁、多迁、大量迁,早稻发生后的残留虫量是晚稻飞虱大发生的虫源基础;7～10月台风频频影响江西,特别是后期台风的影响,加速了秋季稻飞虱随东北气流的回迁,为晚稻飞虱大爆发起到促进作用;盛夏不热且秋季不凉的气象条件,有利于当地稻飞虱的生长繁殖,导致飞虱代数多.     

2005年登陆台湾岛台风路径特点及成因分析

2005年“海棠”、“泰利”和“龙王”3个台风先后在台湾花莲附近登陆后再次在福建登陆。其中“海棠”和“泰利”登陆台湾岛前后路径异常，发生打转、滞留。作者利用常规天气图，结合相关的物理量场对这3个台风进行对比分析，结果表明，过岛台风发生路径异常除了受台湾岛地形影响外，与副热带高压、台风南侧流场、冷空气活动及有关物理量场的分布特征也有密切关系。     

"海棠""麦莎""泰利""卡努"的路径与金华风雨特征分析

2005年台风“海棠”与“泰利”的移动路径和登陆地点不同于“麦莎”与“卡努”,前2次台风自东南偏东往西北偏西移动并登陆于福建中部沿海,后2次自东南往西北移动并登陆浙江中部沿海,都给浙江造成了巨大影响,但影响金华地区的风雨程度不同。经分析台风移动过程,认为西风带低槽或高压影响到副高,副高影响着台风西行或北上,在西风带低槽或副高影响较弱时,台风内力和地形影响作用加强;台风在副高带状时西行为主,块状时北上为主。分析台风路径的预报过程,认为中央气象台预报为“登陆台风”有3~4天的时效;预报较准确的登陆位置,若路径较有规则为30~54个小时,若不规则路径可能仅为3个小时。分析影响金华的台风风雨程度,认为东路台风雨量分布特征是东部大、西部小;南路台风是东南部大、西北部小;最大风力落区基本相同。地形对不同台风路径下的风雨影响分布略有不同。     

水稻稻飞虱概率预报的气候因素

稻飞虱是我国南方稻区的主要水稻害虫，常以褐飞虱（Nilapatvata，stal），白背飞虱（Sogatellafurcifera）两个种类为主。它是一种远距离迁飞性害虫，随气流运载飞行，遇雨水降落稻区危害。以往对此虫的预报方式，是依据异地虫源多少，食料条件，以及长期天气预报等来定性预报其发生程度，往往出现偏差。近年来，作物病虫的概率预报已作为一种方向，运用现代工具，进行历史资料数理分析，建立预报模式，定量的科学预报。因此，气象历史资料各因子的相关分析，显得尤为重要。我们根据我州三都县植保站与气象局1982～1991年10年的两种飞虱发…     

2021年西北太平洋和南海台风活动概述

利用中央气象台台风实时业务资料、自动气象站观测资料以及卫星云图等对2021年西北太平洋及南海台风活动的主要特征和影响我国台风的路径、强度及风雨影响进行分析和回顾。结果表明:2021年西北太平洋及南海台风生成个数偏少,生成源地整体偏西;台风强度偏弱,但有多个台风出现了快速增强,其中台风“烟花”“灿都”的24 h强度增幅达40 m·s^-1,为近30 a少见;2021年先后有5个台风登陆我国,另有2个台风影响我国。在登陆台风中,4个登陆华南的台风强度均弱于历史平均值。所有登陆台风在登陆后的维持时间都明显高于历史均值,特别是台风“烟花”为历史上登陆华东后维持时间最长的台风,给我国带来了严重的灾害影响。     

台湾地形对海棠台风影响的数值模拟研究

应用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)研发的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)气象模式,研究海棠台风(2005)接近并登陆台湾岛的过程中的强度、结构的演变,以及地形强迫作用对台风的影响.对模拟结果的评估表明,在整个海棠台风(2005)模拟实验期间,WRF模式很好地抓住了台风海棠强风,低中心气压的高强度特征.对引起台风降水的中尺度系统的分析表明,一方面台风环流与中央山脉地形共同作用激发出垂直次级环流在降水区域产生强烈的上升运动;另一方面,水平风场源源不断给该地区输送暖湿空气,为对流发展提供充足的水汽.分析结果表明中央山脉地形与台风环流场之间的配置形势对台风降水有着重要的影响.     

近31年登陆北上台风特征及其成因分析

为探讨对我国产生严重影响的登陆北上台风的成因，利用1975—2005年台风资料及NCEP／NCAR逐日再分析等资料，分析了登陆北上台风的气候特征及其大尺度环流和物理量分布特征。结果发现，不仅西北太平洋副热带高压位置和强度变化对台风登陆北上起决定性作用，而且西风带系统和南亚高压活动有利于台风登陆后北折和持续北上也有不可忽视的影响。总结归纳台风登陆北上的预报着眼点，希望有助于提高此类台风的预报预警能力。     

"海棠""凤凰""诺瑞斯"登陆后不同暴雨强度的对比分析

"海棠"、"凤凰"、"诺瑞斯"3个路径和强度相似、登陆地点相近、登陆后移动方向也相同,但在浙中南地区产生的降水强度有明显差异.利用NCEP再分析资料对3个台风的流场、物理量场以及湿位涡分布特征进行对比分析,探讨浙中南受这类台风影响时的雨强预报诊断思路.分析表明,低空急流、低层水汽辐合、高层辐散和大暴雨的降水强度密切相关;湿位涡在中低层mpvt<0,mpv2>0的分布特征对台风大暴雨的发生和落区有较好的指示意义;但由于台风暴雨发生机制的复杂性,大暴雨过程不一定都满足倾斜涡度发展理论所推得的这一强降水的判据,如具备其他有利条件,仍有发生大暴雨的可能.     

上海地区褐飞虱发生程度预测

利用高空环流、海温资料和地面气象资料对上海地区水稻褐飞虱的发生期和发生量组建了长、短期结合的5个预测模型。它们褐飞虱田间始发期预测模型、灯诱始发期预测模型、高峰值出现时间预测模型、高峰虫量预测模型以及褐飞虱自然观察圃密度（百穴虫量）模拟模型。这些预测模型配套组合使用，可以判断上海地区每年褐飞虱发生的时间及严重程度，为褐飞虱的防治提供实时依据。     

影响福建省惠安县台风气候特征及其不同路径的风雨影响

利用惠安县1956-2015年的地面观测数据和常规天气资料,分析影响惠安台风频数气候变化特征,分析正面登陆福建省不同登陆位置路径的台风对惠安县造成的风雨差异,结果表明:影响惠安台风频数多年平均为1.5个,有增多的变化趋势不明显,但有明显的阶段性特征,1990年以前为偏少期,1990年以后为偏多期。影响惠安台风频数存在着明显的4a、8a、16a周期变化特征。台风季节分布呈"单峰型"变化特征,6月台风开始增多,8月达到峰值。在各种不同路径登陆福建省台风中,以正面登陆厦门至诏安之间的台风对惠安县影响最大,风雨交加的机率最多。     

On the pH-dependent formation constants of iron(III)-sulfur(IV) transient complexes

An experimental study is described of Fe(III)-S(IV) formation constants measured as a function of pH (1–3), ionic strength (0.2–0.5 M) and [Fe(III)] _T (2.5–5.0×10^–4 M) using a continuous-flow spectrophotometric technique to make observations 160 ms after mixing. Preliminary experiments using pulse-accelerated-flow (PAF) spectrophotometry to measure rate constants on a microsecond timescale are also described. The conditional formation constant at 25 °C can be modeled with the following equation: {ie307-1} where {ie307-2}K ₇ andK ₈ can be interpreted as intrinsic constants for the coordination of HSO ₃ ^– by FeOH²⁺ and Fe³⁺, respectively, but until further evidence is obtained they should be regarded as fitting constants. PAF spectrophotometry showed that the initial reaction of Fe(III) with S(IV) (pH 2.0) is characterized by a second-order rate constant of 4×10⁶ M^–1 s^–1 which is comparable to rate of reaction of FeOH²⁺ with SO ₄ ^2– . However, the PAF results should be regarded as preliminary since unexpected features in the initial data indicate that the reaction may be more complex than expected.     

时空投影模型(STPM)的次季节至季节(S2S)预测应用进展

随着数值天气预报技术和季节动力预报系统的发展,短期天气预报及长期气候预测的能力持续提高,然而介于两者之间的次季节至季节(S2S,两周至三个月)预测技巧偏低,成为当今气象学界和业务服务的难题。南京信息工程大学国家特聘专家李天明教授团队于2012年研发了基于时空投影技术的统计预报模型(STPM),成功地对中国大陆降水和气温距平,以及区域极端降水、夏季高温、冬季低温和西太平洋台风群发事件等高影响天气进行提前10~30 d的预报,并在国家气候中心及多个省份开展了业务应用。STPM也成功应用于台湾春雨预报、南海季风爆发和ENSO预测等季节至年际变化的预测。本文对S2S预测的理论基础、STPM的发展和应用进行了完整的介绍,并讨论了S2S预测业务中所面临的挑战和未来展望。     

Climate modulation of fish populations: the role of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) in sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) production in the north-western Mediterranean

This study investigates the connections between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production in the NW Mediterranean, taking the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) as an indicator of climate variability. The basic working hypothesis is that sardine and anchovy productivity is influenced by the WeMOi, a proxy for the local environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature (SST) and river runoff. Sardine and anchovy landings (1974–2009) in the Catalan Coast and landings per unit of effort (LPUE) were used as proxy for recruitment. The results demonstrated a clear link between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production. Positive WeMOi values were significantly correlated with low SST, high river runoff and high LPUE, that is, with better-than-average recruitment of sardine and anchovy. Conversely, negative WeMOi values were associated with high SST, low river runoff and low LPUE. During the negative WeMOi phases (such as that at the end of the analyzed period), environmental conditions are unfavourable for the overall biological productivity in the NW Mediterranean and would decrease the survival, growth, condition and reproduction of sardine and anchovy during their life cycle. Despite the evidences on the appropriateness of the NAOi as an indicator of the climate in Europe and its impact on some biological variables, we suggest that using a regional index, such as the WeMOi, can provide a more accurate representation of the environmental conditions affecting small pelagic fish production in the NW Mediterranean.     

Rainfall uncertainty in the Mediterranean: definitions of the daily rainfall threshold (DRT) and the rainy season length (RSL)

One of the major dilemmas in rainfall-regime research is regarding the representativity of rainfall amounts. The annual total (TOTAL) represents the summation of the contributions of all rainfall events. However, this parameter is obtained mainly by contributions of some major events, whereas, many others may contribute minute quantities of a negligible impact. A selected daily rainfall threshold (DRT) is used to filter these small events and to retain only the effective ones (for a wide range of activities), and enable focusing on them in order to better detect any important temporal changes in the rainfall regime. Two different procedures are applied to the data in order to filter out slight and/or sporadic rains: (a) definition of a DRT for each station which filters out the slight rains all year around regardless of their timing, and (b) definitions of the rainy season beginning date (RSBD) and the rainy season ending date (RSED), which filter out sporadic rain events at the beginning or the end of the rainy season, regardless of their amount. The current study presents the appropriate DRT and effective rainy season length (RSL) in 41 Mediterranean stations, and analyzes their influence on some other parameters. The main conclusions are: (1) the filtering process reduced considerably the number of rain-spells (NRS) and therefore the average intensities increased; (2) the filtering process reduced the average time that elapsed between the beginning of two consecutive rain-spells, and (3) the RSL within the study area has a clear spatial distribution, longer in the northern parts and shorter in the southern parts.     

影响1991年和1994年南海夏季风爆发迟早的物理因子探讨

通过使用美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用纬向平均的局地经向环流模式成功地模拟了1991年(爆发晚年)和1994年(爆发早年)南海夏季风的建立过程,经过分析发现,虽然南海夏季风爆发时近地面南风均含有由气压梯度力驱动的地转成分和由除了气压梯度力外的所有动力和热力驱动的非地转成分,且与三维温度梯度有关的温度平流和对流均有正贡献作用,但各因子在(这两年对南海夏季风环流建立时起正贡献的)排序上有明显的差异,主要的差异为:对1991年6月7日00UTC而言,引起地转风的气压梯度力和引起非地转风的热力及动力的合力作用相当.在引起地转偏差的因子中,起正贡献作用的主要因子是潜热加热.而对1994年5月2日00UTC而言,气压梯度力作用相对较小,在引起地转偏差的因子中,起正贡献作用的最大因子是平均纬向温度平流.另外,边界效应独自对模拟的南海近地面最大南风的贡献占42%.引起南海近地层非地转南风的热力和动力因子(稳定度)在1994年5月2日00UTC(早年)均比1991年6月7日00UTC(晚年)大(小).     

Local weather of the Chicama Valley (Peru)

Diurnal weather changes are dominant on the Pacific coast of Peru to an exceptional degree because of its tropical location and the absence of strong migratory pressure systems. Beneath the easterlies that prevail aloft, air is drawn inland from below the trade inversion by the sea breeze; this air floods the valleys of the western Andes, is heated and lifted there, and is modified by lateral mixing with Pacific air above the trade inversion.Despite the recurrent diurnal pattern, rainfall over the Chicama Valley varies widely from day to day. Its occurrence is dependent partly upon the stability relationship between the modified Pacific air and the overlying easterlies, partly upon the moisture and stability within each air mass. The local pattern of rainfall is determined mostly by local orography, but its occurrence or non-occurrence is governed largely by air-mass characteristics associated with the large-scale weather situation.

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Zusammenfassung Wetterwechsel im Laufe des Tages Treten an der Pazifikküste von Peru wegen ihrer Lage in den Tropen und wegen des Fehlens wandernder starker Druckstörungen nur ausnahmsweise auf. Außer der Ostströmung, die in der Höhe vorherrscht, strömt die Luft unterhalb der Passatinversion infolge der Seebrise landeinwärts; diese Luft überflutet die Täler der westlichen Anden, wird hier erwärmt und gehoben und erfährt gewisse Veränderungen durch seitlichen Austausch mit der Pazifikluft oberhalb der Passatinversion.Trotz der täglichen Wiederholung zeigt der Niederschlag über dem Chicama-Tal große Schwankungen von Tag zu Tag; sein Auftreten hängt teilweise von den Stabilitätsverhältnissen zwischen der modifizierten Pazifikluft und der darüber lagernden Ostströmung ab, teilweise von der Feuchtigkeit und der Stabilität innerhalb jeder der beiden Luftmassen. Die lokale Ausprägung der Niederschlagsverhältnisse ist in erster Linie durch die lokale Orographie bedingt, das Auftreten oder Ausbleiben von Niederschlag hängt dagegen in weitem Umfang von den durch die Großwetterlage bedingten Luftmasseneigenschaften ab.

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Résumé Des changements journaliers de temps se produisent d'une manière exceptionnelle sur la côte péruvienne du Pacifique à cause de sa situation tropicale et de l'absence de fortes perturbations mobiles de pression. Outre le courant d'Est dominant en altitude, il existe, sous l'inversion de l'alizé, une brise de mer qui pénètre dans les vallées des Andes occidentales, s'y réchauffe, s'élève et subit certaines modifications par mélange avec l'air du Pacifique au-dessus de l'inversion de l'alizé.En dépit de la répétition journalière, les précipitations de la vallée de Chicama varient fortement d'un jour à l'autre; leur apparition dépend en partie des conditions de stabilité entre l'air du Pacifique modifié et le courant d'Est supérieur, en partie de l'humidité et de la stabilité internes de ces deux masses. L'allure locale de ces précipitations est conditionnée en premier lieu par l'orographie; par contre leur présence ou leur absence dépend dans une large mesure des propriétés que la situation météorologique générale confert aux masses d'air en jeu.

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With 3 Figures.     

陆面过程模型CoLM与区域气候模式RegCM3的耦合及初步评估

陆面过程通过影响陆面和大气之间物质（如,水分）和能量的交换影响气候, 其参数化方案对数值天气预报、全球及区域气候模拟有重要影响。本研究利用对生物物理、生物化学过程考虑更全面的陆面模式Common Land Model(CoLM) 替代区域气候模式RegCM3原有的陆面模式BATS, 发展了耦合区域气候模式C－RegCM3; 将其应用于东亚地区典型洪涝年份夏季气候模拟以进行评估, 结果表明新耦合的模式C－RegCM3能合理模拟大尺度环流场、近地表气温和降水的分布特征, 对西北半干旱地区降水模拟比RegCM3有所改进。通过利用区域气候模式C－RegCM3及RegCM3对地表能量和水文过程模拟结果的比较, 发现在半干旱、半湿润过渡区C－RegCM3模拟的潜热增大、感热减小; 模拟的地表吸收太阳辐射差异较明显的地区位于模式模拟的主要雨区; C-RegCM3在上述过渡区模拟的夏季地表土壤湿度比RegCM3偏干, 这与它在过渡区降水模拟偏少、蒸散发模拟偏大相对应, 体现了该模式在半干旱、半湿润过渡带模拟出比RegCM3更明显的局地土壤湿度－降水－蒸散发之间的正反馈作用。     

The coupling of the Common Land Model (CLM0) to a regional climate model (RegCM)

Summary We replace the existing land surface parameterization scheme, the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS), in a regional climate model (RegCM) with the newly developed Common Land Model (CLM0). The main improvements of CLM0 include a detailed 10-layer soil model, the distinction between soil ice and water phases, a linked photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model, a multilayer snow model, and an improved runoff parameterization. We compare the performance of CLM0 and BATS as coupled to the RegCM in a one year simulation over East Asia. We find that the RegCM/CLM0 improves the winter cold bias present in the RegCM/BATS simulation. With respect to the surface energy balance, lower CLM0 albedos allow the absorption of more solar radiation at the surface. CLM0 tends to simulate higher sensible heat and lower latent heat fluxes than its BATS counterpart. The surface water balance also changes considerably between the two land surface schemes. Compared to BATS, CLM0 precipitation is reduced overall and surface runoff is increased, thereby allowing less water to enter the soil column. Evapotranspiration is lower in CLM0 due to lower ground evaporation, which leads to a wetter surface soil in CLM0 in spite of less precipitation input. However, transpiration is greater in CLM0 than BATS, which has an overall effect of less surface storage during the summertime. Comparison with station observations indicates that CLM0 tends to improve the simulation of root zone soil water content compared to BATS. Another pronounced difference between the two schemes is that CLM0 produces lower snow amounts than BATS because of different snow models and warmer CLM0 temperatures. In this case, BATS snow cover amounts are more in line with observations. Overall, except for the snow amounts, CLM0 appears to improve the RegCM simulation of the surface energy and water budgets compared to BATS.     

Diagnosis of the marine low cloud simulation in the NCAR community earth system model (CESM) and the NCEP global forecast system (GFS)-modular ocean model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere–ocean models: the National Center for Atmospheric Research community earth system model version 1 (CESM1) and the National Center for Environmental Predictions global forecasting system-modular ocean model version 4 (GFS-MOM4) coupled model. In the CESM1, the coastal stratocumulus (Sc)-topped planetary boundary layers (PBLs) in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow cumulus (Cu) is too abrupt and occurs too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS-MOM4 the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is “delayed” and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between these differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.