利用历史有感地震目录（M≥3（1／2））研究华北地区地震活动性特征

对新编的华北地区历史有感地震目录（３（１／２）≤Ｍ＜４（１／２））的精度和可信度进行了讨论。认为该地震目录从１４８４年后的记载率较高，它的发震时间、震中位置和震级的精度基本可以满足研究历史地震活动性的需要。它与中国地震目录（Ｍ≥４（３／４））比较，补充了相当数量的３（１／２）≤Ｍ≤４（１／２）的地震。利用历史有感地震目录分析了华北北部部分６级以上的历史地震，结果表明，这些地震在强震发生前具有明显的空区、条带、地震活动性增强、平静等前兆特征，同时，也显示了某些强＊发生前的前震活动和主震之后起伏的强余震活动     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Opening of the Fram Strait gateway: A review of plate tectonic constraints

We have revised the regional crustal structure, oceanic age distribution, and conjugate margin segmentation in and around the Lena Trough, the oceanic part of the Fram Strait between the Norwegian–Greenland Sea and the Eurasia Basin (Arctic Ocean). The Lena Trough started to open after Eurasia–Greenland relative plate motions changed from right-lateral shear to oblique divergence at Chron 13 times (33.3 Ma; earliest Oligocene). A new Bouguer gravity map, supported by existing seismic data and aeromagnetic profiles, has been applied to interpret the continent–ocean transition and the influence of Eocene shear structures on the timing of breakup and initial seafloor spreading. Assuming that the onset of deep-water exchange depended on the formation of a narrow, oceanic corridor, the gateway formed during early Miocene times (20–15 Ma). However, if the initial Lena Trough was blocked by terrigenous sediments or was insufficiently subsided to allow for deep-water circulation, the gateway probably formed with the first well developed magnetic seafloor spreading anomaly around Chron 5 times (9.8 Ma; Late Miocene). Paleoceanographic changes at ODP Site 909 (northern Hovgård Ridge) are consistent with both hypotheses of gateway formation. We cannot rule out that a minor gateway formed across stretched continental crust prior to the onset of seafloor spreading in the Lena Trough. The gravity, seismic and magnetic observations question the prevailing hypotheses on the Yermak Plateau and the Morris Jesup Rise as Eocene oceanic plateaus and the Hovgård Ridge as a microcontinent.     

Application of MODFLOW and geographic information system to groundwater flow simulation in North China Plain, China

MODFLOW is a groundwater modeling program. It can be compiled and remedied according to the practical applications. Because of its structure and fixed data format, MODFLOW can be integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology for water resource management. The North China Plain (NCP), which is the politic, economic and cultural center of China, is facing with water resources shortage and water pollution. Groundwater is the main water resource for industrial, agricultural and domestic usage. It is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the NCP as an entire aquifer system. With the development of computer and internet information technology it is also necessary to integrate the groundwater model with the GIS technology. Because the geological and hydrogeological data in the NCP was mainly in MAPGIS format, the powerful function of GIS of disposing of and analyzing spatial data and computer languages such as Visual C and Visual Basic were used to define the relationship between the original data and model data. After analyzing the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the NCP, the groundwater flow numerical simulation modeling was constructed with MODFLOW. On the basis of GIS, a dynamic evaluation system for groundwater resources under the internet circumstance was completed. During the process of constructing the groundwater model, a water budget was analyzed, which showed a negative budget in the NCP. The simulation period was from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2003. During this period, the total recharge of the groundwater system was 49,374 × 10⁶ m³ and the total discharge was 56,530 × 10⁶ m³ the budget deficit was −7,156 × 10⁶ m³. In this integrated system, the original data including graphs and attribution data could be stored in the database. When the process of evaluating and predicting groundwater flow was started, these data were transformed into files that the core program of MODFLOW could read. The calculated water level and drawdown could be displayed and reviewed online.     

Anthropogenic affects on lake sedimentation process: a case study from Lake Sapanca, NW Turkey

Lake Sapanca in NW Turkey is a fault originated freshwater basin fed by seasonally variable flows of 15 streams. Considerations of lake–river interaction, supported by statistical measures of 47 bottom samples, suggest that sediment transport and deposition within the lake is controlled by two types of human constructed structures in addition to natural factors: (1) the dykes constructed in the front of streams, which feed the lake by strong flows, to prevent the filling of lakebed by coarse-grained sediments; (2) the constructed regulator on the outflowing Çarksuyu stream results in a higher sedimentation rate of clay-sized material on the NE corner of the lake, which is extraordinary in the shelf environment.     

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976–1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976–1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean.     

Oligocene sequence stratigraphy and basin development in the Danish North Sea sector based on log interpretations

Five sequences are defined in the Oligocene succession of the Danish North Sea sector. Two of the sequences, 4.1a and 4.3, have been identified onshore Denmark.Two types of prograding lowstand deposits are recognized. Sand-dominated deposits occur proximally, comprising sharp-based forced regressive deposits covered with prograding low-stand deposits. Clay-dominated prograding lowstand deposits occur distally in the sequences. The highstand deposits are proximally represented by thick prograding sandy deposits and distally by thin and condensed intervals.The main sediment input direction was from the north and the northeast. A succession oif lithofacies, from shallow marine facies dominated by sand to outer shelf facies dominated by clay, is mapped in each of the sequences. An overall southward progradation of the shoreline took place during the Oligocene, interrupted only by minor shoreline retreats.     

A modelling study of ecosystem dynamics and nutrient cycling in the Humber plume, UK

The European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) has been coupled with a two-dimensional depth-averaged transport model of the Humber plume region and run to simulate 1988–1989. Simulations of the spatial and temporal variations in chlorophyll-a, nitrate, phosphate and suspended particulate matter distributions in winter, spring and summer show how the development of the spring bloom and subsequent maintenance of primary production is controlled by the physicochemical environment of the plume zone. Results are also shown for two stations, one characterised by the high nutrient and suspended matter concentrations of the plume and the other by the relatively low nutrient and sediment concentrations of the offshore waters. The modelled net primary production at the plume site was 105 g C m⁻² a⁻¹ and 127 g C m⁻² a⁻¹ offshore. Primary production was controlled by light limitation between October and March and by the availability of nutrients during the rest of the year. The phytoplankton nutrient demand is met by in-situ recycling processes during the summer. The likely effect of increasing and decreasing anthropogenic riverine inputs of nitrate and phosphate upon ecosystem function was also investigated. Modelling experiments indicate that increasing the nitrogen to silicate ratio in freshwater inputs increased the production of non-siliceous phytoplankton in the plume. The results of this model have been used to calculate the annual and quarterly mass balances describing the usage of inorganic nitrogen, phosphate and silicate within the plume zone for the period of the NERC North Sea survey (September 1988 to October 1989). The modelled Humber plume retains 3.9% of the freshwater dissolved inorganic nitrogen, 2.2% of the freshwater phosphate and 1.3% of the freshwater silicate input over the simulated seasonal cycle. The remainder is transported into the southern North Sea in either dissolved or particulate form. The reliability of these results is discussed.