利用历史有感地震目录（M≥3（1／2））研究华北地区地震活动性特征

对新编的华北地区历史有感地震目录（３（１／２）≤Ｍ＜４（１／２））的精度和可信度进行了讨论。认为该地震目录从１４８４年后的记载率较高，它的发震时间、震中位置和震级的精度基本可以满足研究历史地震活动性的需要。它与中国地震目录（Ｍ≥４（３／４））比较，补充了相当数量的３（１／２）≤Ｍ≤４（１／２）的地震。利用历史有感地震目录分析了华北北部部分６级以上的历史地震，结果表明，这些地震在强震发生前具有明显的空区、条带、地震活动性增强、平静等前兆特征，同时，也显示了某些强＊发生前的前震活动和主震之后起伏的强余震活动     

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationship between the seismicity and geologic structure of the Blanco Transform Fault Zone

Morphologic studies of an oceanic transform, the Blanco Transform Fault Zone (BTFZ), have shown it to consist of a series of extensional basins that offset the major strike-slip faults. The largest of the extensional basins, the Cascadia Depression, effectively divides the transform into a northwest segment, composed of several relatively short strike-slip faults, and a southeast segment dominated by fewer, longer faults. The regional seismicity distribution (m _b 4.0) and frequency-magnitude relationships (b-values) of the BTFZ show that the largest magnitude events are located on the southeast segment. Furthermore, estimates of the cumulative seismic moment release and seismic moment release rate along the southeast segment are significantly greater than that of the northwest segment. These observations suggest that slip along the southeast segment is accommodated by a greater number of large magnitude earthquakes. Comparison of the seismic moment rate, derived from empirical estimates, with the seismic moment rate determined from plate motion constraints suggests a difference in the seismic coupling strength between the segments. This difference in coupling may partially explain the disparity in earthquake size distribution. However, the results appear to confirm the relation between earthquake size and fault length, observed along continental strike-slip faults, for this oceanic transform.     

"5.12"汶川大地震震中区映秀镇地震灾情及次生地质灾害遥感初步调查

"5.12"四川汶川8级大地震发生后,中国国土资源航空物探遥感中心立即采用"赛斯纳"高空遥感飞机,携带高清晰彩色数码相机及先进的POS系统,迅速获取了重灾区的航摄图像数据。本文以震中附近的映秀镇地区为例,简要介绍了以该高质量航摄数据为基础,采用数字滑坡技术,快速进行震后重灾区灾情及次生地质灾害遥感调查的成果。     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.