Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PROPAGATION OF 30—60 DAY LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR INFLUENCE UPON THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES JET STREAM DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER

Based on daily ECMWF gridpoint data of two winters during 1981—1983 including an ENSOyear,propagation of low frequency oscillations(LFO)during Northern Hemisphere winters andtheir influences upon 30—60 day oscillations of the subtropical jet stream are studied with the sta-tistical methods as complex empirical orthogonal function(CEOF)and so on.Results show that inthe winter of a normal year(1981—1982),30—60 day oscillations in the subtropical zone aremainly in the northern and southern flanks of exit region of jet stream.In the ENSO year(1982—1983),they are mainly in the vicinity of entrance and exit regions of jet stream.Intraseasonalchanges of subtropical jet stream manifested themselves as latitudinal fluctuation or longitudinalprogression or regression of about 40 day period.There are marked differences between propagat-ing passages of low frequency modes responsible for changes of subtropical jet stream in the normalyear(1981—1982)and in the ENSO year(1982—1983).Changes of oscillation amplitude showobvious phases.In general,the one in late winter is stronger than that in early winter,strongestone occurs in February.     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

公共行政监督的"经济解释"及其启示

行政腐败和行政作弊现象使政府行政的合法性受到人们的置疑 ,深入推行的廉政建设责任制反映了政府在这一问题上理论认识的巨大进步与从严治政的重大决心。公共选择理论认为 ,官僚的经济人属性不会因其成为政府官僚而改变 ,其目标不是公共利益也不是机构效率 ,而是个人效用 ;西方国家的“三权分立”学说及其实践对于公共行政的监督具有重大的历史进步意义 ,但其精致架构的私有制基础决定了这种民主可能只具有形式主义的性质 ,它只是一种富人之间的游戏规则与表现形式。毛泽东的“双平行制约”理论与方法是中国共产党人对公共行政理论与实践的巨大贡献 ,效果奇特却存在着一系列致命的弊端。对上述理论与实践的比较研究 ,为我国当前广泛展开的廉政建设提出了一些深层次的启发性思考     

National flood discharge mapping in Austria

This article presents the approach and the results of a study in which 30, 100 and 200 year return period flood discharges were estimated for 26,000 km of Austrian streams. Three guiding principles were adopted: combination of automatic methods and manual assessments by hydrologists to allow speedy processing and account for the local hydrological situation; combination of various sources of information including flood peak samples, rainfall data, runoff coefficients and historical flood data; and involvement of the Hydrographic Services to increase the accuracy and enhance the acceptance of results. The flood discharges for ungauged catchments were estimated by the Top-kriging approach with manual adjustment to the local flood characteristics. The adopted combination approach proved to be very efficient both in terms of the project time required and in terms of the accuracy and acceptability of the estimated flood discharges of given return periods.     

加强技术创新服务地质调查——庆祝探矿工艺研究所成立30周年

为加强地质探矿技术力量,改变地质装备落后现状,经国务院批准,1978年8月8日成立了探矿工艺研究所。30年来,经过新老两代工艺所人的艰苦奋斗、刻苦钻研、勇于创新,在科研攻关、成果转化、基地建设和管理等方面都取得了可喜的成绩,为国家的地质科学事业做出了贡献,目前已成为一个“以勘查技术为基础,以承担地质调查任务和科研项目、提供勘查与监测技术方法和技术服务为手段,以服务国家经济建设、社会发展和地质工作为目标,以探矿工艺技术和地质灾害监测防治技术研发为主业”的地质调查科研机构。回顾了工艺所艰苦创业、改革进取的发展历程,对科技体制改革、专业结构调整、人事分配制度改革、地质调查和科研工作进行了总结,展示了丰硕的科研成果和强劲的科技实力;指出了工艺所在“十一五”期间地质调查和科研工作的重点领域和优先发展方向。     

Effects of suction-dredging for cockles on non-target fauna in the Wadden Sea

Suction dredging for cockles removes large cockles from tidal flats and may also cause mortality of non-target fauna and make the habitat less suitable for some species. This study examines whether suction dredging for cockles on tidal flats of the Dutch Wadden Sea had affected densities of non-target fauna, directly after fishing and one year later. Densities of non-target fauna in two randomly chosen undredged locations were compared to densities at the surrounding heavily commercially dredged area. A significant negative effect of cockle dredging on densities of 0-group Macoma balthica was observed and this effect persisted one year after dredging. The dredged area appeared to be less suitable for settlement of mussels Mytilus edulis. No significant effects of dredging on the mudsnail Hydrobia ulvae and on 0 and 1-group C. edule were found. For the mobile young Macoma balthica it seems unlikely that the effect found after one year was still due to the mortality caused by dredging and this suggests that the habitat was less suitable as a consequence of dredging. Thus, even in the highly dynamic ecosystem of the Wadden Sea, effects of bottom disturbance by cockle dredging may persist after one year.     

比较原理在多有理数时滞区间系数离散系统的应用

应用多组有理数时滞离散系统的比较原理和频域法,将多组有理数时滞区间系数离散系统化为多组有理数时滞定常离散系统,以判定其时滞无关稳定性,并举例说明了新定理的有效性和实用性。     

Validation of Jason and Envisat Altimeter Dual Frequency Rain Flags

New rain flags based on the dual frequency capabilities of the new Jason Poseidon-2 and Envisat RA2 altimeters have been tested, developed and adopted for the operational processing of the altimeter data. Their validation conducted during the calibration/validation phases of the satellites is presented here. The Jason flag is validated by comparison with the TOPEX one, using the Tandem mission. The results show a very good agreement between the two sensors and the two rain flags The Envisat flag is validated by comparison with both Jason and TOPEX using global and collocated data sets. The results show similar performances for the three sensors. The f relations estimated during the calibration-validation period and presented here have been given to the altimeter ground processing facilities for operational use.