Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.     

Revisiting the existence of an effective stress for wet granular soils with micromechanics

A possible effective stress variable for wet granular materials is numerically investigated based on an adapted discrete element method (DEM) model for an ideal three‐phase system. The DEM simulations consider granular materials made of nearly monodisperse spherical particles, in the pendular regime with the pore fluid mixture consisting of distinct water menisci bridging particle pairs. The contact force‐related stress contribution to the total stresses is isolated and tested as the effective stress candidate for dense or loose systems. It is first recalled that this contact stress tensor is indeed an adequate effective stress that describes stress limit states of wet samples with the same Mohr‐Coulomb criterion associated with their dry counterparts. As for constitutive relationships, it is demonstrated that the contact stress tensor used in conjunction with dry constitutive relations does describe the strains of wet samples during an initial strain regime but not beyond. Outside this so‐called quasi‐static strain regime, whose extent is much greater for dense than loose materials, dramatic changes in the contact network prevent macroscale contact stress‐strain relationships to apply in the same manner to dry and unsaturated conditions. The presented numerical results also reveal unexpected constitutive bifurcations for the loose material, related to stick‐slip macrobehavior.     

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

AN EVALUATION OF SAS/GRAPH SOFTWARE FOR COMPUTER CARTOGRAPHY1

The SAS® computer software system, widely used and respected for its capabilities in statistical analysis and data base management, now includes a new set of graphic and cartographic procedures called SAS GRAPH?. We have used these cartographic procedures in research on mapping ethno-cultural census data from metropolitan areas in Ontario and in undergraduate and graduate courses in computer cartography. On the basis of that experience, we describe and evaluate SAS/GRAPH'S cartographic capabilities and illustrate with maps drawn by various devices.     

SHRIMP U–Pb ages of diagenetic and hydrothermal xenotime from the Archaean Witwatersrand Supergroup of South Africa

SHRIMP dating of xenotime overgrowths on detrital zircon grains can constrain maximum durations since diagenesis and therefore provide minimum dates of sediment deposition. Thus, xenotime dating has significant economic application to Precambrian sediment-hosted ore deposits, such as Witwatersrand Au–U, for which there are no precise depositional ages. The growth history of xenotime in the Witwatersrand Supergroup is texturally complex, with several phases evident. The oldest authigenic xenotime ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age obtained in sandstone underlying the Vaal Reef is 2764 ± 5 Myr (1 σ), and most likely represents a mixture of diagenetic and hydrothermal growth. Nevertheless, this represents the oldest authigenic mineral age yet recorded in the sequence and provides a minimum age of deposition. Other xenotime data record a spread of ages that correspond to numerous post-diagenetic thermotectonic events (including a Ventersdorp event at ≈ 2720 Ma) up to the ≈2020 Ma Vredefort event.     

Near-Infrared Imaging Spectrophotometry Of Comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) Near Perihelion

We present 1- to 5-μm broadband and CVF images of comet Hale-Bopp taken 1997 February 10.5 UT, 50 days before perihelion. All the images exhibit a nonspherical coma with a bright “ridge” in the direction of the dust tail approximately 10″ from the coma. Synthetic aperture spectrophotometry implies that the optically important grains are of a radius ≤0.4 μm; smallest radius for any comet seen to date. The variation of the integrated surface brightness with radial distance from the coma (ρ) in all the images closely follows the “steady state” ρ⁻¹ model for comet dust ablation (Gehrz and Ney, 1992). The near-infrared colors taken along the dust tail are not constant implying the dust grain properties vary with coma distance. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Finite element formulation and algorithms for unsaturated soils. Part II: Verification and application

The finite‐element formulation and integration algorithms developed in Part I are used to analyse a number of practical problems involving unsaturated and saturated soils. The formulation and algorithms perform well for all the cases analysed, with the robustness of the latter being largely insensitive to user‐defined parameters such as the number of coarse time steps and error control tolerances. The efficiency of the algorithms, as measured by the CPU time consumed, does not depend on the number of coarse time steps, but may be influenced by the error control tolerances. Based on the analyses presented here, typical values for the error control tolerances are suggested. It is also shown that the constitutive modelling framework presented in Part I can, by adjusting one constitutive equation and one or two material parameters, be used to simulate soils that expand or collapse upon wetting. Treating the suction as a strain variable instead of a stress variable proves to be an efficient and robust way of solving suction‐dependent plastic yielding. Moreover, the concept of the constitutive stress is a particularly convenient way of handling the transition between saturation and unsaturation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fire and ice: unravelling the climatic and volcanic history of James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula

Back in the mid-nineteenth century British explorer James Clark Ross took his ships, HMS Terror and HMS Erebus , farther south than anyone else had been. He now lends his name to James Ross Island, a part-volcanic edifice that rises out of the sea off the north-east tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. The island records a geological history dating back to the Cretaceous, though its great peaks are volcanic. The most recent rocks of the island record a monumental struggle between fire and ice, the volcanoes, and the ice sheets that cover them. The glacigenic sediments that are interspersed with the volcanic rocks contain rich fossil assemblages which suggest that at times, the climate was warmer, with the ice retreating. Their study may help us to delimit the patterns of climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula region as Earth's global climate warms.