NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC POLAR LOWS——A COMPARATIVE STUDY

Northern Hemispheric“polar lows”,i.e.maritime,small,but fairly intense cyclonic systems have been studied formore than two decades.Recently researchers have turned their attention towards the occurrence of polar lows and othersmall-scale cyclonic disturbances on the Southern Hemisphere.In this paper a short account of our present knowledgeof Northern Hemispheric polar lows will be given,followed by some preliminary results of an investigation of the natureand occurrence of polar lows on the Southern Hemisphere.     

Modelling the effect of low soil temperatures on transpiration by Scots pine

For ecosystem modelling of the Boreal forest it is important to include processes associated with low soil temperature during spring‐early summer, as these affect the tree water uptake. The COUP model, a physically based SVAT model, was tested with 2 years of soil and snow physical measurements and sap flow measurements in a 70‐year‐old Scots pine stand in the boreal zone of northern Sweden. During the first year the extent and duration of soil frost was manipulated in the field. The model was successful in reproducing the timing of the soil warming after the snowmelt and frost thaw. A delayed soil warming, into the growing season, severely reduced the transpiration. We demonstrated the potential for considerable overestimation of transpiration by the model if the reduction of the trees' capacity to transpire due to low soil temperatures is not taken into account. We also demonstrated that the accumulated effect of aboveground conditions could be included when simulating the relationship between soil temperature and tree water uptake. This improved the estimated transpiration for the control plot and when soil warming was delayed into the growing season. The study illustrates the need of including antecedent conditions on root growth in the model in order to catch these effects on transpiration. The COUP model is a promising tool for predicting transpiration in high‐latitude stands. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microbial mineralization and assimilation of black carbon: Dependency on degree of thermal alteration

Black carbon is degraded slowly in the environment and its formation can therefore be an effective sink for atmospheric CO₂. This study examined whether charcoal is assimilated by microorganisms or not and estimated the rate of mineralization depending on the degree of thermal alteration of the black carbon. Charcoals were produced at three different temperatures from homogeneously ¹⁴C labelled plant material and incubated in soil, and ¹⁴C in the evolved CO₂ and the microbial biomass was measured. Unlike parallel plant samples, CO₂ evolution from the charcoals showed no lag phase, but a period of faster CO₂ evolution for the first 5–8 days followed by a period of slow evolution. The mineralization of charcoal appeared to decrease with increasing temperature at which it was produced. This was also the case after the initial period of fast CO₂ evolution. With the techniques used, it was not possible to observe any microbial assimilation of charcoal, either because it did not occur, or because the methods used were not sufficiently sensitive. However, the lack of a lag phase in the CO₂ evolution from the charcoals is in line with earlier evidence that charcoal is initially oxidized at the surfaces by abiotic processes.     

Drag force on a circular cylinder in unseparated laminar high Reynolds number nonlinear random oscillatory flow

The stochastic properties of the drag force maxima on a circular cylinder subjected to nonlinear random waves are investigated. Unseparated laminar high Reynolds number flow is considered. A simplified approach based on second order Stokes waves is presented, including the sum-frequency effect only. It is demonstrated how a drag force formula valid for regular linear waves can be used to find the cumulative distribution function of individual drag force maxima for nonlinear irregular waves. Here the [Wang, 1968] drag force coefficient is used.     

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.