A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.     

Luminescence dating of sand–loess sequences and response of Mu Us and Otindag sand fields (north China) to climatic changes

The sand–loess transition zone in north China is sensitive to climate change, and is an ideal place to investigate past environmental changes. However, past climate change at millennial–centennial timescales in this region has not been well reconstructed because of limited numerical dating. Alternations of sandy loam soils with aeolian sand layers in the Mu Us and Otindag sand fields, which lie along the sand–loess transition zone, indicate multiple intervals of dune activity and stability. This change is probably a response to variations of the East Asian monsoon climate during the late Quaternary. The single aliquot regeneration (SAR) optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating protocol, which has been successfully applied to aeolian deposits worldwide, is applied to these two sand fields in this study. The OSL ages provide reliable constraints for reconstruction of past climate changes at suborbital timescale. Sections in both sand fields contain aeolian sand beds recording millennial‐scale episodes of dry climate and widespread dune activation, including episodes at about the same time as Heinrich Event 5 and the Younger Dryas in the North Atlantic region. These results demonstrate the potential of aeolian sediments in semi‐arid north China to record millennial‐scale climatic events, and also suggest that dry–wet climate variation at the desert margin in China may be linked to climatic change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, through atmospheric circulation. This article was published online on 27 November 2008. An error was subsequently identified. This notice is included in the online and print versions to indicate that both have been corrected (16 December 2008). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contribution of storms to groundwater recharge in the semi‐arid region of Karnataka,India

This paper describes the application of environmental isotopes and injected tracer techniques in estimating the contribution of storms as well as annual precipitation to groundwater recharge and its circulation, in the semi‐arid region of Bagepalli, Kolar district, Karnataka. Environmental isotopes ²H, ¹⁸O and ³H were used to study the effect of storms on the hydrological system, and an isotope balance was used to compute the contribution of a storm component to the groundwater. Some of the groundwater samples collected during the post‐storm periods were highly depleted in stable isotope content with higher deuterium excess relative to groundwater from the pre‐storm periods. Significant variation in deuterium excess in groundwater from the same area, collected in two different periods, indicates the different origin of air masses. The estimated recharge component of a storm event of 600 mm to the groundwater was found to be in the range of 117–165 mm. There was no significant variation in environmental tritium content of post‐storm and pre‐storm groundwater, indicating the fast circulation of groundwater in the system. After completion of the environmental isotope work, an injected radiotracer ³H technique was applied to estimate the direct recharge of total precipitation to the groundwater. The estimated recharge to the groundwater is 33 mm of the 550 mm annual precipitation during 1992. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of ocean waves based on the single-parameter growth equation of wind waves

A method for the prediction of ocean waves was developed on the basis of the single-parameter growth equation of wind waves, proposed byToba (1978) on the basis of similarity in growing wind waves. The applicability of the method to actual problems was tested by hindcasting the wave characteristics with the method, for two cases with differing time and space scales, one in Kii Channel Approach, Japan, and the other in the North Atlantic Ocean. The results showed that the present method can predict waves within an error of 1.3 m in wave heights, which ranged from 3 to 12 m.     

Nutrient Mass Flux between Florida Bay and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

There is a net discharge of water and nutrients through Long Key Channel from Florida Bay to the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). There has been speculation that this water and its constituents may be contributing to the loss of coral cover on the Florida Keys Reef tract over the past few decades, as well as speculation that changes in freshwater flow in the upstream Everglades ecosystem associated with the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan may exacerbate this phenomenon. The results of this study indicate that although there is a net export of approximately 3,850 (±404) ton N year^?1 and 63 (±7) ton P year^?1, the concentrations of these nutrients flowing out of Florida Bay are the same as those flowing in. This implies that no significant nutrient enrichment is occurring in the waters of the FKNMS in the vicinity of Long Key Channel. Because of the effect of restricted southwestward water flow through Florida Bay by shallow banks and small islands, the volume of relatively high-nutrient water from central and eastern portions of the bay exiting through the channel is small compared to the average tidal exchange. Nutrient loading of relatively enriched bay waters is mediated by tidal exchange and mixing with more ambient concentrations of the western Florida Bay and Hawk Channel. System-wide budgets indicate that the contribution of Florida Bay waters to the inorganic nitrogen pool of the Keys coral reef is small relative to offshore inputs.     

Boundary-layer parameterizations for applied dispersion modeling over urban areas

Many applied dispersion models require the knowledge of boundary-layer parameters such as sensible heat flux,Q _H , friction velocity,u _*, and turbulent energy components, _w and _v . Formulas are suggested for calculating these parameters over a wide variety of types of ground surfaces, based on simple observations of wind speed near the ground and fractional cloud cover, and specification of constants such as roughness length, albedo, and soil moisture availability. Observations ofu _*,Q _H , _w , and _v during field experiments in St. Louis and Indianapolis are used to test the formulas for urban sites. Relative errors of about ±20% in the predictions are seen to occur whenu _*,Q _H , _w , and _v are large. However, when these quantities are small (e.g.,u _* < 0.2 m/s), the errors in the predictions are as large as the mean value of the quantity itself.In addition, it is concluded from studies of available field data and theories that the magnitude of _w is not well-known at elevations above about 100m during the late afternoon and night. Some simple parameterizations for _w . are suggested that are consistent with the observed steady decrease in ground-level concentration in the afternoon and the sudden increase in concentration that can occur a few hours after sunset due to wind shears associated with a low-level jet, for continuous plumes emitted from moderate to tall stacks.     

Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley

To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance.