What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

AN EVALUATION OF SAS/GRAPH SOFTWARE FOR COMPUTER CARTOGRAPHY1

The SAS® computer software system, widely used and respected for its capabilities in statistical analysis and data base management, now includes a new set of graphic and cartographic procedures called SAS GRAPH?. We have used these cartographic procedures in research on mapping ethno-cultural census data from metropolitan areas in Ontario and in undergraduate and graduate courses in computer cartography. On the basis of that experience, we describe and evaluate SAS/GRAPH'S cartographic capabilities and illustrate with maps drawn by various devices.     

SHRIMP U–Pb ages of diagenetic and hydrothermal xenotime from the Archaean Witwatersrand Supergroup of South Africa

SHRIMP dating of xenotime overgrowths on detrital zircon grains can constrain maximum durations since diagenesis and therefore provide minimum dates of sediment deposition. Thus, xenotime dating has significant economic application to Precambrian sediment-hosted ore deposits, such as Witwatersrand Au–U, for which there are no precise depositional ages. The growth history of xenotime in the Witwatersrand Supergroup is texturally complex, with several phases evident. The oldest authigenic xenotime ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age obtained in sandstone underlying the Vaal Reef is 2764 ± 5 Myr (1 σ), and most likely represents a mixture of diagenetic and hydrothermal growth. Nevertheless, this represents the oldest authigenic mineral age yet recorded in the sequence and provides a minimum age of deposition. Other xenotime data record a spread of ages that correspond to numerous post-diagenetic thermotectonic events (including a Ventersdorp event at ≈ 2720 Ma) up to the ≈2020 Ma Vredefort event.     

Near-Infrared Imaging Spectrophotometry Of Comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) Near Perihelion

We present 1- to 5-μm broadband and CVF images of comet Hale-Bopp taken 1997 February 10.5 UT, 50 days before perihelion. All the images exhibit a nonspherical coma with a bright “ridge” in the direction of the dust tail approximately 10″ from the coma. Synthetic aperture spectrophotometry implies that the optically important grains are of a radius ≤0.4 μm; smallest radius for any comet seen to date. The variation of the integrated surface brightness with radial distance from the coma (ρ) in all the images closely follows the “steady state” ρ⁻¹ model for comet dust ablation (Gehrz and Ney, 1992). The near-infrared colors taken along the dust tail are not constant implying the dust grain properties vary with coma distance. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Finite element formulation and algorithms for unsaturated soils. Part II: Verification and application

The finite‐element formulation and integration algorithms developed in Part I are used to analyse a number of practical problems involving unsaturated and saturated soils. The formulation and algorithms perform well for all the cases analysed, with the robustness of the latter being largely insensitive to user‐defined parameters such as the number of coarse time steps and error control tolerances. The efficiency of the algorithms, as measured by the CPU time consumed, does not depend on the number of coarse time steps, but may be influenced by the error control tolerances. Based on the analyses presented here, typical values for the error control tolerances are suggested. It is also shown that the constitutive modelling framework presented in Part I can, by adjusting one constitutive equation and one or two material parameters, be used to simulate soils that expand or collapse upon wetting. Treating the suction as a strain variable instead of a stress variable proves to be an efficient and robust way of solving suction‐dependent plastic yielding. Moreover, the concept of the constitutive stress is a particularly convenient way of handling the transition between saturation and unsaturation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Steady-state size distributions for collisional populations:: analytical solution with size-dependent strength

The steady-state population of bodies resulting from a collisional cascade depends on how material strength varies with size. We find a simple expression for the power-law index of the population, given a power law that describes how material strength varies with size. This result is extended to the case relevant for the asteroid belt and Kuiper belt, in which the material strength is described by 2 separate power laws—one for small bodies and one for larger bodies. We find that the power-law index of the small body population is unaffected by the strength law for the large bodies, and vice versa. Simple analytical expressions describe a wave that is superimposed on the large body population because of the transition between the two power laws describing the strength. These analytical results yield excellent agreement with a numerical simulation of collisional evolution. These results will help to interpret observations of the asteroids and KBOs, and constrain the strength properties of those objects.     

From harmony of the spheres to national anthem: Reflections on musical heritage

Western classical music was long distinctive among the arts for its universality and catholicity. From Greek antiquity on, music uniquely reflected Orphic, mystic, celestial feeling, And unlike painting, architecture, or literature, the standard musical canon came to be breathtakingly inclusive over time as well as space. Yet in recent centuries music has increasingly celebrated national patriotism and period particularism. This essay traces the histories of these antithetical expressive urges, the one universalistic, transcendental, atemporal, the other chauvinist, parochial, historicist.     

Solid bitumens: an assessment of their characteristics, genesis, and role in geological processes

Familiar since antiquity, and subject in contemporary times to various characterization schemes, the exact nature of solid bitumen is not yet fully known. Bitumens have ‘random polymer-like’ molecular structures, are mobile as highly viscous fluids or were once fluids but have since turned into solids. Solid bitumens consist mainly of large moieties, of polyclyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, occasionally with finely admixed, fine-grained cryptocrystalline graphite. Solid bitumens are distinguished from kerogen, which is the syngenetic and generally finely dispersed particulate organic matter in sedimentary rock that virtually does not migrate following its deposition. Occurrences of solid bitumens are relevant to petroleum exploration as well as the search for, and evaluation of, a variety of metallic mineral deposits. Genesis of bitumen is in many cases linked to the thermal and hydrothermal history of organic matter in sedimentary rock. Apparently bitumen, or more specifically organic acids generated along with bitumen during diagenesis, may alter porosity of reservoir rocks or otherwise prepare the ground for ore deposition. Bitumen is also relatively sensitive to alteration processes, some of which, such as oxidative weathering, water leaching, biodegradation (contact) metamorphism and ionizing radiation may likewise affect its nature. Elemental composition of bitumen commonly reflects the nature of mineral deposits. Is is possible that in petroleum exploration, trace metal abundances of bitumen may eventually allow prediction of crude oil types and volumes anticipated from a given source rock? Beside transition elements, notably Ni and V, highly anomalous concentrations of U, Pt and Au occur in some solid bitumens. During the generation of petroleum from kerogen, the trend in δ¹³C is toward lighter values. The opposite seems to occur when liquid petroleum is subjected to thermal cracking (and /or related processes) yielding solid bitumen enriched in ¹³C, and isotopically light methane. In fact, except for deasphalting and possibly some irradiation processes, the result of thermal cracking, oxidation, water leaching, inspissation (drying) and bacterial degradation of crude oil is that lower molecular weight hydrocarbons are removed leaving bitumen residues enriched in aromatic hydrocarbons, heteroatomic compounds (NSO) and ¹³C. Such phenomena are relevant to bitumen paragenesis in petroleum reservoir rocks, to certain Phanerozoic occurrences of multiple generations of bitumens, and to bitumens in mineral deposits.