Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.     

Quaternary tectonic faulting in the Eastern United States

Paleoseismological study of geologic features thought to result from Quaternary tectonic faulting can characterize the frequencies and sizes of large prehistoric and historical earthquakes, thereby improving the accuracy and precision of seismic-hazard assessments. Greater accuracy and precision can reduce the likelihood of both underprotection and unnecessary design and construction costs. Published studies proposed Quaternary tectonic faulting at 31 faults, folds, seismic zones, and fields of earthquake-induced liquefaction phenomena in the Appalachian Mountains and Coastal Plain. Of the 31 features, seven are of known origin. Four of the seven have nontectonic origins and the other three features are liquefaction fields caused by moderate to large historical and Holocene earthquakes in coastal South Carolina, including Charleston; the Central Virginia Seismic Zone; and the Newbury, Massachusetts, area. However, the causal faults of the three liquefaction fields remain unclear. Charleston has the highest hazard because of large Holocene earthquakes in that area, but the hazard is highly uncertain because the earthquakes are uncertainly located.Of the 31 features, the remaining 24 are of uncertain origin. They require additional work before they can be clearly attributed either to Quaternary tectonic faulting or to nontectonic causes. Of these 24, 14 features, most of them faults, have little or no published geologic evidence of Quaternary tectonic faulting that could indicate the likely occurrence of earthquakes larger than those observed historically. Three more features of the 24 were suggested to have had Quaternary tectonic faulting, but paleoseismological and other studies of them found no evidence of large prehistoric earthquakes. The final seven features of uncertain origin require further examination because all seven are in or near urban areas. They are the Moodus Seismic Zone (Hartford, Connecticut), Dobbs Ferry fault zone and Mosholu fault (New York City), Lancaster Seismic Zone and the epicenter of the shallow Cacoosing Valley earthquake (Lancaster and Reading, Pennsylvania), Kingston fault (central New Jersey between New York and Philadelphia), and Everona fault-Mountain Run fault zone (Washington, D.C., and Arlington and Alexandria, Virginia).     

The seismic hazard assessment of the Dead Sea rift, Jordan

The Dead Sea fault system and its branching faults represent one of the most tectonically active regions in the Middle East. The aim of this study is to highlight the degree of hazards related to the earthquake activities associated with the Dead Sea rift, in terms of speculating the possible future earthquakes. The present investigation mainly is based on available data and vertical crustal modeling of Jordan and the Dead Sea model for the Dead Sea basin with particular emphasis of the recent earthquake activities, which occurred on December 31st, 2003 (Mc = 3.7), February 11th, 2004 (strongest Mc = 4.9 R), and March 15th, 2004 (Mc = 4). The present research examines the location of the strong events and correlates them with the various tectonic elements in the area. The source mechanism of the main shock and the aftershock events is also examined. The analyses were based on the available short period seismogram data, which was recorded at the Natural Resources Authority of Jordan, Seismological Observatory. The seismic energy appears to have migrated from the south to the north during the period from December 31st up to March 12th, where the released seismic energy showed a migration character to the southern block of the eastern side of the Dead Sea, which led the seismic event to occur on March 15th.     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Geological and geomorphological characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2004 Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake in Japan

The 2004 Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake (M_JMA 6.8) triggered more than one thousand landslides in the Miocene to Quaternary sedimentary rocks in Japan. The most common landslides were shallow disrupted landslides on steep slopes, which has been common in many previous disastrous earthquakes in the world. The Mid Niigta prefecture earthquake also triggered more than one hundred deep landslides, providing valuable information on the conditions for their occurrence. A field investigation and the interpretation of aerial photographs taken before and after the earthquake suggest that reactivation of existing landslides and undercutting of slopes are the most important factors for deep landslides to be triggered by earthquakes. In addition, planar sliding surfaces seem to be essential for the generation of catastrophic landslides triggered by this earthquake. Planar bedding–parallel sliding surfaces were formed at the boundary between the overlying permeable sandstone and underlying siltstone or along the bedding planes of alternating beds of sandstone and siltstone. Sliding surfaces along the slope-parallel oxidation front were formed in the area of black mudstone. New landslides (rockslide-avalanches) occurred with the sliding surfaces in a several-cm thick tuff interbedded in siltstone. One rockslide-avalanche occurred on a slope where buckling deformation preceded the earthquake. Gentle valley bottom sediments were mobilized in many locations, probably because they were saturated and partial liquefaction had occurred due to the earthquake shaking.     

Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.     

Behaviour of a rupture of the 21 June 2000 earthquake in South Iceland as revealed in an asphalted car park

A major earthquake (M=6.6) occurred on 21 June 2000, in South Iceland. This paper presents an unusual example of left-lateral strike-slip displacement recorded in a newly asphalted car park surface through a mechanically consistent pattern of open fissures and pressure ridges resulting from simple shear and rotation. Measurement of these features allows accurate reconstruction of the local deformation. The behaviour of the asphalt layer resembles that of analogue physical models, especially in terms of rotations induced by shear deformation. It is finally shown that through a wide range of scales some basic patterns associating rotation and opposite senses of strike-slip exist in the South Iceland Seismic Zone.     

Computational modeling of cyclic mobility and post-liquefaction site response

Under seismic excitation, liquefied clean medium to dense cohesionless soils may regain a high level of shear resistance at large shear strain excursions. This pattern of response, known as a form of cyclic mobility, has been documented by a large body of laboratory sample tests and centrifuge experiments. A plasticity-based constitutive model is developed with emphasis on simulating the cyclic mobility response mechanism and associated pattern of shear strain accumulation. This constitutive model is incorporated into a two-phase (solid–fluid), fully coupled finite element code. Calibration of the constitutive model is described, based on a unique set of laboratory triaxial tests (monotonic and cyclic) and dynamic centrifuge experiments. In this experimental series, Nevada sand at a relative density of about 40% is employed. The calibration effort focused on reproducing the salient characteristics of dynamic site response as dictated by the cyclic mobility mechanism. Finally, using the calibrated model, a numerical simulation is conducted to highlight the effect of excitation frequency content on post-liquefaction ground deformations.     

Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.