几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

遥感影像三维可视化研究

利用DEM高程资料实现遥感影像的三维显示可大大提高遥感监测产品的使用价值，而商用软件成本高操作繁琐普及困难。利用计算机图形学知识和Delphi编程语言，开发了一套遥感影像三维可视化软件。对在开发过程中遇到的有关DEM数据的裁剪与拼接、图像配准、地表模拟、透视变换、消隐处理、光照和阴影效果以及颜色变换等问题的解决方案和实现方法作了简要的介绍。     

沈阳地区沙尘天气分析

本文总结了沈阳地区沙尘天气的时空分布特点，从天气条件、地表自然条件(沙源)两方面分析了沈阳地区沙尘天气的成因，总结了沈阳地区预报沙尘天气时应参考的5个因素。     

Studies on wind environment around high buildings in urban areas

High buildings or architectural complex in urban areas remarkably distort the urban surface wind fields. As the air flow approaches,local strong wind may appear around the buildings. The strong wind makes the pedestrians on sidewalks, entrances and terrace very uncomfortable and causes the pedestrian level wind environment problem. In this studies, hot-wire wind measurement, wind scouring in wind tunnel and numerical computation were carried out to evaluate the wind environment of tall buildings in the prevailing flow conditions in Beijing areas. The results obtained by three techniques were compared and mutually verified. The conclusions drawn from three approaches agree with each other. Also the advantages and limitations of each method were analyzed. It is suggested that the combination of different techniques may produce better assessment of wind environment around high buildings.     

长江口斜压诊断模式三维流场数值模拟

建立了σ坐标系下长江口斜压诊断模式三维流场数学模型,采用k-kl二方程紊流闭合模型求解垂向涡粘系数,计算域内恒定、非均匀盐度场反映了计算域密度斜压效应。验证结果表明,斜压诊断模式的模拟成果较切合实际。模型成功复演了长江口水域由往复流向旋转流过渡的流场特性;潮波从四条汊道传入后在分汊口附近相遇形成多个会潮点,其位置随着径流的大小、潮汐的强弱、汊道的形态等因素而变化。     

舟山港台风风暴潮的分析及预报

利用 1 956～ 2 0 0 0年舟山市定海验潮站潮位观测资料 ,对历年影响舟山的台风风暴潮灾进行了全面的统计分析。将台风按路径分型 ,分析了不同路径台风风暴潮的特点 ,并用基于PRESS准则的逐步回归方法 ,建立了不同路径风暴潮的预报模型。     

锦屏大理岩动态劈裂拉伸破坏及能量演化特征分析

劈裂拉伸破坏是隧洞围岩失稳破坏的主要形式之一。现阶段,在动态劈裂条件下岩石裂纹扩展及对应阶段的能量演化机制鲜有涉及。基于此,采用分离式霍普金森压杆对锦屏大理岩试样进行了不同弹速下的劈裂试验,并借助ANSYS/LS-DYNA有限元软件,模拟试样动态劈裂破坏过程。从试验测试和数值计算角度,重点分析大理岩劈裂过程中的裂纹扩展机制以及能量演化特征。结果表明：在应变率为5～35 s−1时,大理岩的动态拉伸强度与应变率呈线性正相关,同其他地区大理岩相比较,锦屏大理岩的应变率敏感性相对较低;随着弹速的增加,系统内能和动能均增大,在试样破坏的瞬间系统内能降至最低;采用标定的Cowper-Symonds本构模型参数进行数值模拟,所得的试样最终破坏形态与试验观察到的现象基本一致。研究结果可为具体工程应用提供指导和参考。     

A 3D multi-threshold,region-growing algorithm for identifying dust storm features from model simulations

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property, and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecast models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. These simulation outputs are in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation, and time) and represent spatially heterogeneous dust storm features and their evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing-based algorithm to identify critical dust storm features from 3D dust storm simulations. A multi-threshold scheme is defined for the identification of dust storm features with different dust concentrations. Based on the multi-thresholds, dust storm features are iteratively identified by developing a region-growing algorithm that splits a clustered dust storm feature into multiple sub-features. The proposed approach is compared with three commonly used methods in image processing and thunderstorm identification. The proposed approach outperforms the other three methods in sensitivity and quantitative/qualitative accuracy. This research approach may also be slightly adjusted to identify critical 3D features from simulation outputs for other severe weather and geographical phenomena.     

Point-block covariance: A general solution for the two-dimensional stationary random functions

The application of the theory of random functions to problems of ore evaluation may involve computations of the covariance between the mean value of a given block and the functional value at a given point. However, an analytical solution for such a covariance does not exist for nonspherical blocks and for commonly applied models of covariance functions. Further, because this covariance is a function of the spatial arrangements of the block and the point, it has to be evaluated numerically each time for given point—block arrangements. This paper presents a readily available general solution to this problem in the form of a series of graduated curves which, together with some geometric manipulations, may be used to compute the covariance between a pointand a two-dimensional block for all possible point—block arrangements. The availability of the graph thus eliminates the necessity of using the time-absorbing programs on computers for such computations. Finally, many of the approximations that are made in order to avoid cumbersome covariance evaluations are no longer necessary due to the ease of such computations with the help of the graph provided.     

Runoff quality prediction from small urban catchments using SWMM

The RUNOFF block of EPA's storm water management model (SWMM) was used to simulate the quantity and quality of urban storm water runoff from four relatively small sites (i.e. 5·97–23·56 ha) in South Florida, each with a specific predominant land use (i.e. low density residential, high density residential, highway and commercial). The objectives of the study were to test the applicability of this model in small subtropical urban catchments and provide modellers with a way to select appropriate input parameters to be used in planning studies. A total of 58 storm events, measured by the US Geological Survey (USGS), provided hyetographs, hydrographs and pollutant loadings for biological oxygen demand (BOD₅), total suspended solids (TSS), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and lead (Pb), and were used for calibration of the model. Several other catchment characteristics, also measured or estimated by USGS, were used in model input preparation. Application of the model was done using the Green–Ampt equation for infiltration loss computation, a pollutant accumulation equation using a power build-up equation dependent on the number of dry days, and a power wash-off equation dependent on the predicted runoff rate. Calibrated quantity input parameters are presented and compared with suggested values in the literature. The impervious depression storage was generally found to be the most sensitive calibration parameter, followed by the Manning's roughness coefficients of conduit and overland flow, the Green–Ampt infiltration parameters and, finally, the pervious depression storage. Calibrated quality input parameters are presented in the form of regression equations, as a function of rainfall depth and the number of antecedent dry days. A total of 16 independent rainfall events were used for verification of the model, which showed a good comparison with observed data for both hydrographs and pollutant loadings. Average model predictions for the four constituent concentrations from the verification runs also showed good agreement with NURP published values in Florida and US sites. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.