A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.     

伊犁盆地北部山麓黄土粒度端元指示的粉尘堆积过程

中亚干旱区是全球重要的粉尘源区,是全球变化与区域响应研究的关键区域之一。中亚粉尘形成搬运沉积过程一直是全球变化研究的热点科学问题。本文选取位于伊犁盆地北部、北天山南麓不同地形和气候条件下的两处黄土剖面,对其沉积速率最高的层段进行了粒度测试分析,结合聚类分析和粒度分布曲线拟合两种方法,重建了黄土粉尘的堆积过程。伊犁盆地黄土主要由远源和近源物质组成,分别由高空西风和中尺度的区域风搬运而来。高空西风所携带的远源粘粒级矿物颗粒对盆地东部降雨较高地区有一定的贡献,而在盆地西部不容易沉降下来。中尺度区域风所搬运的近源物质组成了黄土沉积物的主体,而近源区沉积物的可用性在黄土的形成过程中扮演着重要角色。另外,非风暴过程中(沙尘暴过后)出现的浮尘在沙尘暴天气频率减少的时期对黄土的发育有重要贡献,而在沙尘暴天气频发的时期,较差的植被覆盖度能够使得已经沉降下来的浮尘组分重新被扬起至大气中。由此建立了一个粉尘堆积的概念模型。认识黄土粉尘的堆积过程对现代沙尘天气的治理和人类生存环境的改善具有重要作用。     

URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN CALIFORNIA: AN EVALUATION

California's excellent road system has provided unmatched mobility for most of the state's residents. Recently, however, constraints on construction of high-capacity roads have threatened the future of unrestricted auto use. California's transportation planners have therefore shifted emphasis from expanding the transportation system to increasing its efficiency. No concomitant change has occurred, however, in state legislation or resource allocation. As a result, rather than being an integrated process, transportation planning and implementation are fragmented. This paper examines the origins and implications of this situation and possible remedies for it.     

近50年来云南气候带的变化特征

利用云南115个气象观测站1961-2006年逐日平均气温求算稳定≥10℃积温.并对积温资料按年代建立与海拔、经度和纬度相关联的小网格推算模型.再应用地理信息系统(GIS)订正到0.01×0.01°网格点,得出云南5个不同年代细网格积温分布.在此基础上划分7个气候带地理分布图,并分别计算其面积.据此分析,近50年来云南气候带总体上呈现热带亚热带范围扩大、温带范围减少的变化趋势,其中以北热带增加最明显,增幅达到90.2%;而南温带减少最明显,减幅为12.5%.在年代际变化上,1960-1970年表现出热带亚热带范围减小,温带范围增加;从1970年后则呈现热带亚热带范围快速增加,温带范围减小的趋势.而1990年代以来是气候带变化最大的时期.     

Estimation of Scalar Source/Sink Distributions in Plant Canopies Using Lagrangian Dispersion Analysis: Corrections for Atmospheric Stability and Comparison with a Multilayer Canopy Model

Source/sink distributions of heat, water vapour andCO₂ within a rice canopy were inferred using aninverse Lagrangian dispersion analysis and measuredmean profiles of temperature, specific humidity andCO₂ mixing ratio. Monin–Obukhov similarity theorywas used to account for the effects of atmosphericstability on _w(z), the standard deviation ofvertical velocity and _L(z), the Lagrangian timescale of the turbulence. Classical surface layer scaling was applied in the inertial sublayer (z > z_ruf)using the similarity parameter = (z - d)/L, where z is height above ground, d is the zero plane displacementheight for momentum, L is the Obukhov length,and z_ruf 2.3h_c, where h_c iscanopy height. A single length scale h_c, was usedfor the stability parameter 3 = h_c/L in the height range 0.25 < z/h_c < 2.5. This choice is justified by mixing layer theory, which shows that within the roughness sublayer there is one dominant turbulence length scaledetermined by the degree of inflection in the windprofile at the canopy top. In the absence of theoretical or experimental evidence for guidance,standard Monin–Obukhov similarity functions, with = h_c/L, were used to calculate the stabilitydependence of _w(z) and _L(z) in the roughness sublayer. For z/h_c < 0.25 the turbulence length and time scales are influenced by the presence of the lowersurface, and stability effects are minimal. With theseassumptions there was excellent agreement between eddycovariance flux measurements and deductions from theinverse Lagrangian analysis. Stability correctionswere particularly necessary for night time fluxes whenthe atmosphere was stably stratified.The inverse Lagrangian analysis provides a useful toolfor testing and refining multilayer canopy models usedto predict radiation absorption, energy partitioningand CO₂ exchanges within the canopy and at thesoil surface. Comparison of model predictions withsource strengths deduced from the inverse analysisgave good results. Observed discrepancies may be dueto incorrect specification of the turbulent timescales and vertical velocity fluctuations close to theground. Further investigation of turbulencecharacteristics within plant canopies is required toresolve these issues.     

地理学的特点

现代地理学强调过程与演变的研究,在定量研究方面取得了显著的进步。但在热衷于建立各种模型时,地理学的特点或性质却被忽视,这在国内尤其明显。认识地理学的本质特点,对于学习地理学、发展地理学科和从事地理学研究非常重要。地理学的特点可概括为4方面:即地理学是“研究行星地球表面的科学”、“研究关系的科学”、“强调位置的科学”和“考察分布的科学”。这4个方面缺少任何一方,都不能反映有别于其他任何学科的地理学自身的特点。     

吕宋冷涡时空特征概况

本文在收集南海以及台湾周边海域1900~2004年共105a的海洋调查资料,按0.5°×0.5°网格进行温盐计算统计分析,制作了逐月平面、断面分布图的基础上,参考相关文献和海洋水文图集,阐明了吕宋冷涡的空间、季节特点及其变化规律。中尺度涡对海洋科学、舰艇航行及国防建设等都有重要的学术意义和实际应用意义。     

Size‐frequency distributions of Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata (Brachiopoda: Megathyrididae) from the Central Tyrrhenian Sea

Size‐frequency distributions can support reliable inferences concerning population dynamics of brachiopods, but only a few data are available so far. In this study, length and width frequency distributions of dead specimens of the Recent brachiopods Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata from the Marine Protected Area ‘Secche di Tor Paterno’, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy (41°35′ N, 12°20′ E), are reported in order to add new data about size‐frequency distributions of brachiopods. The studied specimens came from death assemblages in the coralligenous substrate, in the Posidonia oceanica meadows, and in the sand channels. The observed patterns vary from left‐skewed (J. cordata) to right‐skewed (A. cuneata), indicating respectively a low and high mortality of smaller individuals. Significant differences between the coralligenous substrate and the P. oceanica meadow were observed for both species, revealing a variation among different habitats. All length and width distributions are clearly polymodal, but the biological meaning of the peaks is difficult to interpret, as the two species seem to have a 2‐year life span. A biometric analysis of shell sizes revealed that length and width are the most variable parameters during the growth of the animal.