The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones: A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone (TC) vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds. It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall, which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution. In contrast, the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall. These led to stronger boundary layer inflow, stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall, and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall. These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall, followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC. Our study demonstrates that accurate in- itialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC. Additionally, monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.     

Post-depositional modification of NO-3 in snow layers at EastAntarctica and at the headwater of ürumqi River

Acidic species, such as Nitrate, in polar snow and firn layers are “reversibly” deposited, and are sufficiently volatile to undergo significant postdepositional exchange between snow/firn and the atmosphere. Through comparison of the snowpit and snowpack nitrate concentrations from central East Antarctica and the headwater of ürumqi River, we conclude that the nitrate peaks in the uppermost surface snow layers in central Antarctica are not related to an atmospheric signal and must account for post-depositional effects. Such effects, however, are not found in the surface snowpack nitrate profiles from the headwater of ürumqi River. Two reasons may account for the post-depositional difference. At first, nitrate in the polar snow and firn layers appears to be hydrated ion, which can be taken up by the atmosphere, while at the headwater of ürumqi River it seems mainly as mineral ion, which assembles the behavior of aerosol-derived species that are “irreversibly” deposited and do not undergo significant post-depositional exchange with the atmosphere. Secondly, the chemical features of the snow and ice on the Antarctica are mainly determined by wet deposition, to the contrary, dry deposition is more significant at the headwater of lUrumqi River than that on the East Antarctic Plateau.     

Enrichment Patterns and New Discovery of Deep Lacustrine Shale Oil in the Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation,Songliao Basin,NE China

正Objective The Songliao Basin is located in northeastern China. The Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation(Fm.)(K2 qn), Yaojia Fm.(K2 y), and Nenjiang Fm.(K2 n) were deposited in its depression. The sediments are mainly continental clastic rocks. The first member of the Qingshankou Fm.(K2 qn1) in the southern Songliao Basin mainly comprises semi-deep to deep lacustrine shale of large thickness, generally 30,100 m, with wide distribution; the thickness of the shale has an average thickness of 70 m.     

利用ARC/INFO进行三维地形模型的建立、处理和动态模拟

介绍了利用 ARC/ INFO建立三维地形模型的方法 ,以及利用其新版本的部分新功能处理三维地形模型、进行动态模拟的方法 ,与以往处理三维模型必须借助外部三维图形开发软件包的方法相比 ,具有高速、灵活、可视性强、支持强大分析功能等优点。形成的三维模型可随时与 ARC/ INFO的其它数据模型交换信息 ,与外部进程实时通讯 ,为使用者提供了二维分析工具所不能提供的信息 ,为开发视景仿真系统等与表面分析、立体显示有关的应用系统提供了强有力的支持。     

A COMBINED REFRACTION-DIFFRACTION-DISSIPATION MODEL OF WAVE PROPAGATION

A numerical model based on the mild-slope equation of water wave propagation over complicated bathymetry,taking into account the combined effects of refraction,diffraction and dissipation due to wavebreaking is presented.Wave breaking is simulated by modifying the wave height probability density func-tion and the wave energy dissipation mechanism is parameterized according to that of the hydraulic jumpformulation.Solutions of the wave height,phase function,and the wave direction at every grid point areobtained by finite difference approximation of the governing equations,using Gauss-Seidel Iterative Method(GSIM)row by row.Its computational convenience allows it to be applied to large coast regions tostudy the wave transformation problem.Several case studies have been made and the results compare verywell with the experiment data and other model solutions.The capability and utility of the model forreal coast areas are illustrated by application to a shallow bay of northeast Australia.     

黑龙江省干旱及植被分布的时空变化分析

干旱是影响社会经济系统和自然生态系统的重要气象灾害.本研究基于多时间序列的SPEI和NDVI栅格数据,利用GIS空间分析方法和统计分析方法,对比分析了2000—2018年黑龙江省干旱和植被分布的时空变化特征,从而揭示了干旱对植被分布的影响.研究表明:1)干旱具有明显的年际和季节特征,以及干湿变化的阶段性和趋势性,呈东—西干湿反向变化空间分布;2)植被分布具有明显季节特征,但年际特征不明显,呈西北、北部和东南部高,东北、西南部低的空间分布;3)干旱对植被分布影响具有复杂性.研究结果可为干旱防灾减灾和影响评估以及区域生态恢复提供参考依据.     

Origin and Evolution of Aquitard Porewater in the Western Coastal Plain of Bohai Bay,China

High‐salinity paleowater from low‐permeability aquitards in coastal areas can be a major threat to groundwater resources; however, such water has rarely been studied. The chemical and isotopic compositions of porewater extracted from a 200‐m‐thick Quaternary sedimentary sequence in the western coastal plain of Bohai Bay, China, were analyzed to investigate the salinity origin and chemical evolution of porewater in aquitards. Porewater samples derived at depths shallower than 32 m are characterized by Cl‐Na type saline water (total dissolved solids [TDS], 10.9–84.3 g/L), whereas those at depths greater than 32 m comprise Cl·SO₄‐Na type brackish water (TDS, 2.2–6.3 g/L). Saline porewater is interpreted as evaporated seawater prior to halite saturation, as evidenced by Cl‐Br relationships. Although substantial dilution of saline porewater with meteoric water is supported by a wider Cl^? range and δ²H‐δ¹⁸O covariance, the original marine waters were not completely flushed out. The deeper brackish porewater is determined to be a mixture of fresher porewater and brine groundwater and had a component of old brine of less than 10%, as indicated by a mixing model defined using δ²H and Cl^? tracers. Porewater δ²H‐δ¹⁸O relationships and negative deuterium excess ranging from ?25.9‰ to ?2.9‰ indicate the existence of an arid climate since Late Pleistocene in Tianjin Plain. The aquitard porewaters were chemically modified through water‐rock interactions due to the long residence time.     

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