A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.     

Low-cost volcano surveillance from space: case studies from Etna, Krafla, Cerro Negro, Fogo, Lascar and Erebus

 Satellite data offer a means of supplementing ground-based monitoring during volcanic eruptions, especially at times or locations where ground-based monitoring is difficult. Being directly and freely available several times a day, data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) offers great potential for near real-time monitoring of all volcanoes across large (3000×3000 km) areas. Herein we describe techniques to detect and locate activity; estimate lava area, thermal flux, effusion rates and cumulative volume; and distinguish types of activity. Application is demonstrated using data for active lavas at Krafla, Etna, Fogo, Cerro Negro and Erebus; a pyroclastic flow at Lascar; and open vent systems at Etna and Stromboli. Automated near real-time analysis of AVHRR data could be achieved at existing, or cheap to install, receiving stations, offering a supplement to conventional monitoring methods. Received: 21 January 1997 / Accepted: 3 April 1997     

A comparative study of the zooplankton in two adjacent embayments,Port Phillip and Westernport Bays,Australia

We report on a year's study of spatial and seasonal patterns of zooplankton abundance in Port Phillip and Westernport Bays, July 1982 to August 1983. These two bays, closely adjacent on the southern coast of Victoria, Australia, differ in several respects: Port Phillip is a nearly landlocked bay with a broad basin, while Westernport is an open tidal embayment with extensive mud and seagrass banks. Both bays have a resident zooplankton fauna distinct from that of Bass Strait. Although these resident communities have many species in common, patterns of abundance and dominance are quite different. We found that the holoplankton of Port Phillip was about half copepods, mostly Paracalanus indicus, with 23% Caldocera and 21% larvaceans. Westernport Bay zooplankton was dominated by Acartia tranteri, with no resident cladoceran fauna. Bass Strait species were more often found in Westernport than in Port Phillip Bay, but the resident community of Port Phillip Bay was more similar to that of Bass Strait than to that of Westernport.Although this study was undertaken in an exceptionally dry year, the available historical data show that the overall patterns found in 1982–1983 are typical for these bays. The differences in community composition probably relate to differences in depth profile, predator abundance, and suspended matter between the bays.     

Speciation of trace metals in sediments of a tropical estuary

Axial surveys were performed in the two river tributaries of the Cochin estuary, SW India during November 1988. Surficial sediments were subjected to sequential chemical extractions to delineate five metal fractions, namely, exchangeable, carbonate bound, easily reducible, organic/sulfide bound, and residual. The results indicated selective accumulation of Mn and Ni in carbonate bound and organic/sulfide forms, along with marginal amounts of Co in the exchangeable fraction. Large portions of Fe and Cr occurred in the residual fraction, whereas composite fractionation of Zn species was noticed. The exchangeable fractions of Fe and Cr as well as of easily reducible cobalt were below detection limits. The levels of Cr and Zn indicate anthropogenic inputs in this estuary, whereas Co and Ni show regional contamination exceeding natural levels. The analytical speciation procedure helps to deduce the sedimental diagenetic processes in the estuarine environment.     

Transient response of a circular cavity in a poroelastic medium

This paper considers the transient response of a pressurized long cylindrical cavity in an infinite poroelastic medium. To obtain transient solutions, Biot's equations for poroelastodynamics are specialized for this problem. A set of exact general solutions for radial displacement, stresses, pore pressure and discharge are derived in the Laplace transform space by using analytical techniques. Solutions are presented for three different types of prescribed transient radial pressures acting on the surface of a permeable as well as an impermeable cavity surface. Time domain solutions are obtained by inverting Laplace domain solutions using a reliable numerical scheme. A detailed parametric study is presented to illustrate the influence of poroelastic material parameters and hydraulic boundary conditions on the response of the medium. Comparisons are also presented with the corresponding ideal elastic solutions to portray the poroelastic effects. It is noted that the maximum radial displacement and hoop stress at the cavity surface are substantially higher than the classical static solutions and differ considerably from the transient elastic solutions. Time histories and radial variations of displacement, hoop stress, pore pressure and fluid discharge corresponding to a cavity in two representative poroelastic materials are also presented.     

Long-term seismicity of Istanbul and of the Marmara Sea region

We examine the long-term seismicity of the Marmara Sea region in Turkey over a period of twenty centuries to attempt to answer two questions: (1) how well recorded in history is the earthquake activity of this region? and (2) does seismicity over this long period of time differ from that over the present century? We study this densely-populated and fast-developing region because it is one of the most tectonically active regions on the continents that appears today to be relatively quiescent.     

The stable isotope signature of kilometre-scale fracturedominated metamorphic fluid pathways, Mary Kathleen, Australia

Abstract Large calcite veins and pods in the Proterozoic Corella Formation of the Mount Isa Inlier provide evidence for kilometre-scale fluid transport during amphibolite facies metamorphism. These 10- to 100-m-scale podiform veins and their surrounding alteration zones have similar oxygen and carbon isotopic ratios throughout the 200 × 10-km Mary Kathleen Fold Belt, despite the isotopic heterogeneity of the surrounding wallrocks. The fluids that formed the pods and veins were not in isotopic equilibrium with the immediately adjacent rocks. The pods have δ¹³C_calcite values of –2 to –7% and δ¹⁸O_calcite values of 10.5 to 12.5%. Away from the pods, metadolerite wallrocks have δ¹⁸O_whole-rock values of 3.5 to 7%. and unaltered banded calc-silicate and marble wallrocks have δ¹³C_calcite of –1.6 to –0.6%, and δ¹⁸O_calcite of 18 to 21%. In the alteration zones adjacent to the pods, the δ¹⁸O values of both metadolerite and calc-silicate rocks approach those of the pods. Large calcite pods hosted entirely in calc-silicates show little difference in isotopic composition from pods hosted entirely in metadolerite. Thus, 100- to 500-m-scale isotopic exchange with the surrounding metadolerites and calc-silicates does not explain the observation that the δ¹⁸O values of the pods are intermediate between these two rock types. Pods hosted in felsic metavolcanics and metasiltstones are also isotopically indistinguishable from those hosted in the dominant metadolerites and calc-silicates. These data suggest the veins are the product of infiltration of isotopically homogeneous fluids that were not derived from within the Corella Formation at the presently exposed crustal level, although some of the spread in the data may be due to a relatively small contribution from devolatilization reactions in the calc-silicates, or thermal fluctuations attending deformation and metamorphism. The overall L-shaped trend of the data on plots of δ¹³C vs. δ¹⁸O is most consistent with mixing of large volumes of externally derived fluids with small volumes of locally derived fluid produced by devolatilization of calc-silicate rocks. Localization of the vein systems in dilatant sites around metadolerite/calc-silicate boundaries indicates a strong structural control on fluid flow, and the stable isotope data suggest fluid migration must have occurred at scales greater than at least 1 km. The ultimate source for the external fluid is uncertain, but is probably fluid released from crystallizing melts derived from the lower crust or upper mantle. Intrusion of magmas below the exposed crustal level would also explain the high geothermal gradient calculated for the regional metamorphism.     

Palaeotemperature reconstructions of the European permafrost zone during marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 compared with climate model results

A palaeotemperature reconstruction based on periglacial phenomena in Europe north of approximately 51 °N, is compared with high‐resolution regional climate model simulations of the marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 (Stage 3) palaeoclimate. The experiments represent Stage 3 warm (interstadial), Stage 3 cold (stadial) and Last Glacial Maximum climatic conditions. The palaeotemperature reconstruction deviates considerably for the Stage 3 cold climate experiments, with mismatches up to 11 °C for the mean annual air temperature and up to 15 °C for the winter temperature. However, in this reconstruction various factors linking climate and permafrost have not been taken into account. In particular a relatively thin snow cover and high climatic variability of the glacial climate could have influenced temperature limits for ice‐wedge growth. Based on modelling the 0 °C mean annual ground temperature proves to be an appropriate upper temperature limit. Using this limit, mismatches with the Stage 3 cold climate experiments have been reduced but still remain. We therefore assume that the Stage 3 ice wedges were generated during short (decadal time‐scale) intervals of extreme cold climate, below the mean temperatures indicated by the Stage 3 cold climate model simulations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quaternary stratigraphy of the buried valleys of the lower Red Deer River,Alberta, Canada

The Quaternary fills of the buried valleys of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan have provided a wealth of information for the reconstruction of the glacial-interglacial record of the western plains of Canada, and this paper reports on the previously unstudied stratigraphy of the buried Calgary Valley and its former tributaries in the lower Red Deer River area. We attempt to differentiate Empress Group sediments, which potentially relate to pre-glacial, interglacial/ interstadial and post-glacial lake and river deposition, using sedimentology, stratigraphy and palaeoecology. Twenty-nine stratigraphical logs indicate that Empress Group sediments have infilled a considerably large area of badlands and tributary coulees that once drained into the Calgary Valley, located 15 km to the north of Dinosaur Provincial Park. Radiocarbon dates of 52.4 ka, 27.4 ka and > 42.4 ka and glacially modified quartz grains suggest that at least some of the valley fills date to interglacial or interstadial periods and may be mid-Wisconsinan in age. However, outcrops of an older till overlying other valley fills suggest that the buried valleys were only partially excavated during interglacials/interstadials and that older (even pre-glacial) sediments could have survived. Subglacial channels, recognisable on air photographs, largely coincide with buried valley positions due to the preferential excavation of the Quaternary sediment by meltwater and are filled with post-glacial lake sediment from which a radiocarbon date of 16 ka BP was obtained. Pre-glacial and glacial/post-glacial Empress Group sediments are lithologically indistinct but cover a large time span in southern Alberta.