Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

The influence of a non‐associated flow rule on the calculation of the factor of safety of soil slopes

This paper presents a method that incorporates a non‐associated flow rule into the limit analysis to investigate the influence of the dilatancy angle on the factor of safety for the slope stability analysis. The proposed method retain's the advantage of the upper bound method, which is simple and has no stress involvement in the calculation of the energy dissipation and the factor of safety. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Grain boundary diffusion in enstatite

We have investigated grain boundary diffusion rates in enstatite by heating single crystals of quartz packed in powdered San Carlos olivine (Mg_0.90Fe_0.10)₂SiO₄ at controlled oxygen fugacities in the range 10^?5.7 to 10^?8.7?atm and temperatures from 1350° to 1450?°C for times from 5 to 100?h at 1?atm total pressure. Following the experiments, the thickness of the coherent polycrystalline reaction rim of pyroxene that had formed between the quartz and olivine was measured using backscatter scanning imaging in the electron microprobe. Quantitative microprobe analysis indicated that the composition of this reaction phase is (Mg_0.92Fe_0.08)₂Si₂O₆. The rate of growth of the pyroxene increases with increasing temperature, is independent of the oxygen fugacity, and is consistent with a parabolic rate law, indicating that the growth rate is controlled by ionic diffusion through the pyroxene rim. Microstructural observations and platinum marker experiments suggest that the reaction phase is formed at the olivine-pyroxene interface, and is therefore controlled by the diffusion of silicon and oxygen. The parabolic rate constants determined from the experiments were analyzed in terms of the oxide activity gradient across the rim to yield mean effective diffusivities for the rate-limiting ionic species, assuming bulk transport through the pyroxene layer. These effective diffusivities are faster than the lattice diffusivities for the slowest species (silicon) calculated from creep experiments, but slower than measured lattice diffusivities for oxygen in enstatite. Thus, silicon grain boundary diffusion is most likely to be the rate-limiting process in the growth of the pyroxene rims. Also, as oxygen transport through the pyroxene rims must be faster than silicon transport, diffusion of oxygen along the grain boundaries must be faster than through the lattice. The grain boundary diffusivity for silicon in orthopyroxenite is then given by D¯gbSiδ=(3.3±3.0)×10^?9f0.0O₂e^?400±65/RT?m³s^?1, where the activation energy for diffusion is in kJ/mol, and δ is the grain boundary width in m. Calculated growth rates for enstatite under these conditions are significantly slower than predicted by an extrapolation from similar experiments performed at 1000?°C under high pressure (hydrous) conditions by Yund and Tullis (1992), perhaps due to water-enhancement of diffusion in their experiments.     

Solid bitumens: an assessment of their characteristics, genesis, and role in geological processes

Familiar since antiquity, and subject in contemporary times to various characterization schemes, the exact nature of solid bitumen is not yet fully known. Bitumens have ‘random polymer-like’ molecular structures, are mobile as highly viscous fluids or were once fluids but have since turned into solids. Solid bitumens consist mainly of large moieties, of polyclyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, occasionally with finely admixed, fine-grained cryptocrystalline graphite. Solid bitumens are distinguished from kerogen, which is the syngenetic and generally finely dispersed particulate organic matter in sedimentary rock that virtually does not migrate following its deposition. Occurrences of solid bitumens are relevant to petroleum exploration as well as the search for, and evaluation of, a variety of metallic mineral deposits. Genesis of bitumen is in many cases linked to the thermal and hydrothermal history of organic matter in sedimentary rock. Apparently bitumen, or more specifically organic acids generated along with bitumen during diagenesis, may alter porosity of reservoir rocks or otherwise prepare the ground for ore deposition. Bitumen is also relatively sensitive to alteration processes, some of which, such as oxidative weathering, water leaching, biodegradation (contact) metamorphism and ionizing radiation may likewise affect its nature. Elemental composition of bitumen commonly reflects the nature of mineral deposits. Is is possible that in petroleum exploration, trace metal abundances of bitumen may eventually allow prediction of crude oil types and volumes anticipated from a given source rock? Beside transition elements, notably Ni and V, highly anomalous concentrations of U, Pt and Au occur in some solid bitumens. During the generation of petroleum from kerogen, the trend in δ¹³C is toward lighter values. The opposite seems to occur when liquid petroleum is subjected to thermal cracking (and /or related processes) yielding solid bitumen enriched in ¹³C, and isotopically light methane. In fact, except for deasphalting and possibly some irradiation processes, the result of thermal cracking, oxidation, water leaching, inspissation (drying) and bacterial degradation of crude oil is that lower molecular weight hydrocarbons are removed leaving bitumen residues enriched in aromatic hydrocarbons, heteroatomic compounds (NSO) and ¹³C. Such phenomena are relevant to bitumen paragenesis in petroleum reservoir rocks, to certain Phanerozoic occurrences of multiple generations of bitumens, and to bitumens in mineral deposits.     

Metamorphic evolution of exhumed middle to lower crustal rocks in the Mojave Extensional Belt, southern California, USA

The Waterman Metamorphic Complex of the central Mojave Desert was exposed as a consequence of early Miocene detachment-dominated extension. However, it has evidence consistent with a more extensive geological history that involves collision of a crustal fragment(s), tectonic thickening by overthrusting and two periods of extension. The metamorphic complex contains granitoid intrusives and felsic mylonitic gneisses as well as polymetamorphic rocks that include marble, calc-silicate, quartzite. mafic granulite, pyribolite, amphibolite, migmatite and biotite schist. The latter group of rocks was affected by an initial series of high-grade metamorphic events (M1 and M2) and a localized lower grade overprint (M3). The initial metamorphism (M1) can be separated into two stages along its high-grade P–T path: M1a, a granulite facies metamorphism at 800–850° C and 7.5–9 kbar and Mlb, an upper amphibolite facies overprint at 750–800° C and 10–12 kbar. M1a developed mineral assemblages and textures consistent with granulite facies conditions at a reduced activity of H₂O and is associated with intense ductile deformation (D1) and minor local partial melting. M1b overprinted the granulite assemblages with a series of hydrous phases under conditions of increasing pressure and H₂O activity and is accompanied by little or no deformation. M2 developed at lower pressures and temperatures (650–750° C, 4.5–5.5 kbar) and is distinguished by a second local overprint of hydrous phases that reflects an input of aqueous fluids probably associated with the intrusion of a series of granitic dykes and veins. Effects of M3 are confined to the Mitchel detachment zone, an anastomosing early Miocene detachment fault, and are characterized by local ductile/brittle deformation (D2) of the pre-existing high-grade rocks and granitoid intrusives and by the production of mylonites and mylonitic gneisses under greenschist facies conditions (300–350° C, 3–5 kbar). The initial overprint (M1a) represents metamorphism, devolatilization and minor partial melting of supracrustal rocks under granulite facies conditions as a consequence of tectonic and, possibly, magmatic thickening. The increasing pressure transition of M1a to M1b reflects a period of continued compressional tectonism, thrusting and influx of H₂O, in part, locally related to crystallization of partial melts. The near isothermal decompression between M1b and M2 probably represents a pre-112-Ma extensional episode that may have been the result of a decompressional readjustment of a thickened crust. Following the initial extensional event, the metamorphic complex remained at depths of 10–17 km for at least 90 Ma until it was uplifted following Miocene extension. M3 develops locally in response to this second extensional period resulting from the early Miocene detachment faulting.     

Multiple-source localization using GPS technology and receivedarrival time structure analysis in an air-deployed system

An efficient and robust method has been developed to locate multiple impulsive sources in an ocean environment. Global position system (GPS) receivers were installed on sonobuoys to obtain their locations within a few meters of accuracy. A sonobuoy field was deployed in a ring-type pattern. Charges were then set off at arbitrary locations within the ring, High-resolution plots were used to obtain direct path and/or first bottom bounce arrivals on each buoy. A model grid of arrival times was constructed, corresponding to the dimensions of the buoy field. A ray model previously developed here at the Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) was used to obtain model travel times. The minimum value of the least-square-type error between the real arrival times and the modeled travel times resulted in an unambiguous location of the source, within the limits of the grid spacing chosen. This value was calculated by picking one receiver as the reference and then summing the timing errors of the remaining receivers relative to the reference. Successive iterations with finer grid spacings result in source localization within the accuracy of the buoy locations. The localization routine was extended by allowing permutations of the pulse arrivals on each buoy to account for multiple sources closely separated in time and/or space. An automated correlation technique is presented as an alternative to the leading edge-detection method used here for obtaining relative arrival times. Two proof-of-concept experiments were performed and some results of data obtained at Lake Travis and the Gulf of Mexico are presented     

High-temperature geothermal reservoir possibilities in Hungary

Theoretical studies have shown the possibility of high-temperature ('high enthalpy') geothermal reservoirs in the pre-Tertiary rocks at 4–5 km depth range within the Pannonian Basin. This expectation was proven by the hotwater/steam blowout of Fábiánsebestyén-4 borehole (16.12.85–31.1.86). Exploration efforts carried out during 1987–88 in the broad vicinity of the borehole proved that reservoirs of this type can be found with the combination of seismic reflection, silica-thermometry and magnetotelluric sounding methods. Deliberate prospection should be continued in all suitable areas within the basin, since high enthalpy reservoirs promise profitable operation of geothermal power stations.     

On the resonant spin flavor precession of the neutrino in the sun

This work deals with the possible solution of the solar neutrino problem in the framework of the resonant neutrino spin-flavor precession scenario. The event rate results from the solar neutrino experiments as well as the recoil electron energy spectrum from SuperKamiokande are used to constrain the free parameters of the neutrino in this model (Δm² and μ_ν). We consider two kinds of magnetic profiles inside the sun. For both cases, a static and a twisting field are discussed.     

Observations on the ecological importance of salt marshes in the Cumberland Basin,a macrotidal estuary in the Bay of Fundy

The Cumberland Basin, a 118 km² estuary at the head of the Bay of Fundy which has an average tidal range of about 11m, contains large tracts of salt marsh (15% of the area below highest high water). Low marsh (below about 0·9 m above mean high water) is composed almost exclusively of Spartina alterniflora while the vegetation on high marsh is more diverse but dominated by Spartina patens. Because of its higher elevation, high marsh is flooded infrequently for short periods by only extreme high tides. Low marsh is inundated much more frequently by water as much as 4m deep for periods as long as 4 h per tide. Temporal variability in the occurrence of extreme tides influences the flooding frequency of high marsh for any given month and year. Using a modification of Smalley's method, the mean annual net aerial primary production (NAPP) of low and high marsh is estimated to be 272 and 172 g C m^?2, respectively. Vegetation turnover times average 1·0 and 2·0 y for low and high marsh, respectively. Because of abundant tidal energy, much of the low marsh production appears to be exported and distributed widely about the estuary. Since high levels of turbidity suppress phytoplankton production, salt marshes produce approximately half of the carbon fixed photosynthetically in the Cumberland Basin. It is concluded that salt marshes play a major ecological role in the Cumberland Basin.