Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Multiple-source localization using GPS technology and receivedarrival time structure analysis in an air-deployed system

An efficient and robust method has been developed to locate multiple impulsive sources in an ocean environment. Global position system (GPS) receivers were installed on sonobuoys to obtain their locations within a few meters of accuracy. A sonobuoy field was deployed in a ring-type pattern. Charges were then set off at arbitrary locations within the ring, High-resolution plots were used to obtain direct path and/or first bottom bounce arrivals on each buoy. A model grid of arrival times was constructed, corresponding to the dimensions of the buoy field. A ray model previously developed here at the Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) was used to obtain model travel times. The minimum value of the least-square-type error between the real arrival times and the modeled travel times resulted in an unambiguous location of the source, within the limits of the grid spacing chosen. This value was calculated by picking one receiver as the reference and then summing the timing errors of the remaining receivers relative to the reference. Successive iterations with finer grid spacings result in source localization within the accuracy of the buoy locations. The localization routine was extended by allowing permutations of the pulse arrivals on each buoy to account for multiple sources closely separated in time and/or space. An automated correlation technique is presented as an alternative to the leading edge-detection method used here for obtaining relative arrival times. Two proof-of-concept experiments were performed and some results of data obtained at Lake Travis and the Gulf of Mexico are presented     

High-temperature geothermal reservoir possibilities in Hungary

Theoretical studies have shown the possibility of high-temperature ('high enthalpy') geothermal reservoirs in the pre-Tertiary rocks at 4–5 km depth range within the Pannonian Basin. This expectation was proven by the hotwater/steam blowout of Fábiánsebestyén-4 borehole (16.12.85–31.1.86). Exploration efforts carried out during 1987–88 in the broad vicinity of the borehole proved that reservoirs of this type can be found with the combination of seismic reflection, silica-thermometry and magnetotelluric sounding methods. Deliberate prospection should be continued in all suitable areas within the basin, since high enthalpy reservoirs promise profitable operation of geothermal power stations.     

Observations on the ecological importance of salt marshes in the Cumberland Basin,a macrotidal estuary in the Bay of Fundy

The Cumberland Basin, a 118 km² estuary at the head of the Bay of Fundy which has an average tidal range of about 11m, contains large tracts of salt marsh (15% of the area below highest high water). Low marsh (below about 0·9 m above mean high water) is composed almost exclusively of Spartina alterniflora while the vegetation on high marsh is more diverse but dominated by Spartina patens. Because of its higher elevation, high marsh is flooded infrequently for short periods by only extreme high tides. Low marsh is inundated much more frequently by water as much as 4m deep for periods as long as 4 h per tide. Temporal variability in the occurrence of extreme tides influences the flooding frequency of high marsh for any given month and year. Using a modification of Smalley's method, the mean annual net aerial primary production (NAPP) of low and high marsh is estimated to be 272 and 172 g C m^?2, respectively. Vegetation turnover times average 1·0 and 2·0 y for low and high marsh, respectively. Because of abundant tidal energy, much of the low marsh production appears to be exported and distributed widely about the estuary. Since high levels of turbidity suppress phytoplankton production, salt marshes produce approximately half of the carbon fixed photosynthetically in the Cumberland Basin. It is concluded that salt marshes play a major ecological role in the Cumberland Basin.     

A 2000-YEAR CONTEXT FOR MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE

ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well-distributed (pole-equator-pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric ¹⁴C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first-order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale.     

The effect of phase-shifter errors on the performance of an antenna-array beamformer

The paper considers the random phase errors in the phase shifters which are used in an antenna array to steer the beam in the look direction, and analyzes the effect of these errors on the performance of the optimal processor which maximizes the output SNR by deriving the expressions for the output signal power, residual interference power, output SNR, and the array gain as a function of the variance of these errors. The paper also considers the phase quantization error which arises in the digital phase shifters and shows how the performance of the optimal processor depends on the number of bits of the digital phase shifters.     

Chronology and evolution of the northern Iceland Plateau

New aeromagnetic data, K-Ar age determinations of dredged marine igneous rocks, as well as other geophysical evidence have shed light on the chronology, nature and evolution of the northern Iceland Plateau. Correspondence between seismic refraction profiles taken on the Jan Mayen Ridge and westward through Jan Mayen Island, suppressed aeromagnetic anomalies, earthquake surface wave studies, and ages of dredged igneous rocks suggest these strata may form an extended region of thickened crust, possibly of Caledonian age, extending westward toward the Kolbeinsey Ridge and northwest to the south wall of the Jan Mayen Fracture Zone.     

Relationships between Campi Flegrei and Mt. Somma volcanism: evidence from melt inclusions in clinopyroxene phenocrysts from volcanic breccia xenoliths

Summary We present compositions of reheated melt inclusions in clinopyroxene phenocrysts from three mafic xenoliths in Breccia Museo, Campi Flegrei, Italy. Melt inclusion compositions are remarkably different from the compositions of known contemporary Campi Flegrei lavas, being significantly enriched in K₂O and depleted in Na₂O. Some differences are also evident in FeO^* (total Fe as FeO) and TiO₂ contents. The clinopyroxene phenocrysts could not have crystallised from Campi Flegrei magmas. We suggest that they originated from a volcanic system genetically very similar to, and possibly linked with, the >14 ka volcanic system of Mt. Somma, another Campanian volcano ∼ 30 km east from Campi Flegrei, from which Vesuvius subsequently developed. This result indicates a close relationship (or link) between the two volcanic systems which have until now been considered separate. We speculate that the link was established prior to eruption of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) (∼ 12 ka). The xenoliths were derived from a volcanic system older than the host breccias themselves. We suggest that this older volcanism had close similarities with the volcanism of the older products of Mt. Somma (∼25 ka). Received March 20, 2000; accepted November 2, 2000     

What type was SN 1987A?

A comparison is made of the light and colour curves of the SN 1987A in the first 280 days with the mean properties of type II supernovae. The conclusion is that even though it has H lines, and was not a typical type II supernova, but a peculiar object from a photometric point of view. The implications for inclusion of SN 1987A in the context of the usual Minkowski-Zwicky classification are explicitly discussed.