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31.
Erik Rüttener Juan José Egozcue Dieter Mayer-Rosa Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178
Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law. 相似文献
32.
A brief account of the development of the research on mining earthquakes and the general situation of the Mentougou Coal Mine medium-scale experiment field for earthquake prediction and the project of monitor and prediction is given. The differences of waveforms between mining earthquakes and natural earthquakes is discussed. The magnitude-frequency distribution of the 79 000 mining earthquakes of overM l 1. 0 from 1984 to 1995 is summarized. Finally, taking PH and PV, the principal compressive stress components of the focal mechanism of the mining earthquakes, as the criteria, analyses the stress background of the 12 large mining earthquakes. 相似文献
33.
Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear. 相似文献
34.
The present paper deals with the specification of bed erosion flux that accounts for the effects of sediment-induced stratification in the water column. Owing to difficulties in measuring the bed shear stress b and the erosive shear strength s, we suggest a series of methods that combine laboratory and numerical experiments. A simplified turbulent transport model that includes these effects helps to quantify b and s. Focusing on soft stratified beds, the present study considers erosion rate formulas of the form =f exp {[Tb-Ts]} where is a model constant (=1 for Gularte's (1978) formula and =1/2 for Parchure's (1984) formula). First, the bed erosive strength profile s(Z) is adjusted by forcing the turbulent transport model with measured erosion rates. Second, three procedures are suggested to determine the erosion rate formula coefficients f and : a global procedure and two different layer-by-layer procedures. Each procedure is applied to an erosion experiment conducted in a rotating annular flume by Villaret and Paulic (1986). The use of the layer-by-layer procedure based on a least squares fitting technique provides a closer fit than the global procedure. The present study points out the complementarity of experimental and numerical approaches and also suggests possible improvements in laboratory test procedures. 相似文献
35.
In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ
2 andJ
22 due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J
2 and J
22 the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides. 相似文献
36.
The extractable organic matter of 10 immature samples from a marl bed of one evaporitic cycle of the Vena del Gesso sediments (Gessoso-solfifera Fm., Messinian, Italy) was analyzed quantitatively for free hydrocarbons and organic sulphur compounds. Nickel boride was used as a desulphurizing agent to recover sulphur-bound lipids from the polar and asphaltene fractions. Carbon isotopic compositions (delta vs PDB) of free hydrocarbons and of S-bound hydrocarbons were also measured. Relationships between these carbon skeletons, precursor biolipids, and the organisms producing them could then be examined. Concentrations of S-bound lipids and free hydrocarbons and their delta values were plotted vs depth in the marl bed and the profiles were interpreted in terms of variations in source organisms, 13 C contents of the carbon source, and environmentally induced changes in isotopic fractionation. The overall range of delta values measured was 24.7%, from -11.6% for a component derived from green sulphur bacteria (Chlorobiaceae) to -36.3% for a lipid derived from purple sulphur bacteria (Chromatiaceae). Deconvolution of mixtures of components deriving from multiple sources (green and purple sulphur bacteria, coccolithophorids, microalgae and higher plants) was sometimes possible because both quantitative and isotopic data were available and because either the free or S-bound pool sometimes appeared to contain material from a single source. Several free n-alkanes and S-bound lipids appeared to be specific products of upper-water-column primary producers (i.e. algae and cyanobacteria). Others derived from anaerobic photoautotrophs and from heterotrophic protozoa (ciliates), which apparently fed partly on Chlorobiaceae. Four groups of n-alkanes produced by algae or cyanobacteria were also recognized based on systematic variations of abundance and isotopic composition with depth. For hydrocarbons probably derived from microalgae, isotopic variations are well correlated with those of total organic carbon. A resistant aliphatic biomacromolecule produced by microalgae is, therefore, probably an important component of the kerogen. These variations reflect changes in the depositional environment and early diagenetic transformations. Changes in the concentrations of S-bound lipids induced by variations in conditions favourable for sulphurization were discriminated from those related to variations in primary producer assemblages. The water column of the lagoonal basin was stratified and photic zone anoxia occurred during the early and middle stages of marl deposition. During the last stage of the marl deposition the stratification collapsed due to a significant shallowing of the water column. Contributions from anaerobic photoautotrophs were apparently associated with variations in depth of the chemocline. 相似文献
37.
We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v
6 (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency. 相似文献
38.
New thermal profiles of Jupiter are retrieved from recent far infrared spectral measurements and for H2 mixing ratios varying from 0.8 to 0.94. The effective temperature corresponding to the inferred thermal profile is 123.15 ± 0.35°K. Far-infrared brightness temperature spectra computed from these profiles are compared to experimental data including measurements made at high spectral resolution in the NH3ν2 band at 10 μm and in NH3 pure rotational bands between 40 and 110 μm. It is found that a strong depletion of NH3 does occur in the Jovian stratosphere and that ammonia seems to be undersaturated in the upper troposphere. 相似文献
39.
The impulsive phases of three flares that occurred on April 10, May 21, and November 5, 1980 are discussed. Observations were obtained with the Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer (HXIS) and other instruments aboard SMM, and have been supplemented with Hα data and magnetograms. The flares show hard X-ray brightenings (16–30 keV) at widely separated locations that spatially coincide with bright Hα patches. The bulk of the soft X-ray emission (3.5–5.5 keV) originates from in between the hard X-ray brightenings. The latter are located at different sides of the neutral line and start to brighten simultaneously to within the time resolution of HXIS. Concluded is that:
- The bright hard X-ray patches coincide with the footpoints of loops.
- The hard X-ray emission from the footpoints is most likely thick target emission from fast electrons moving downward into the dense chromosphere.
- The density of the loops along which the beam electrons propagate to the footpoints is restricted to a narrow range (109 < n < 2 × 1010 cm-3), determined by the instability threshold of the return current and the condition that the mean free path of the fast electrons should be larger than the length of the loop.
- For the November 5 flare it seems likely that the acceleration source is located at the merging point of two loops near one of the footpoints.
40.
We study the spatial and temporal characteristics of the 3.5 to 30.0 keV emission in a solar flare on April 10, 1980. The data were obtained by the Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer aboard the Solar Maximum Mission Satellite. It is complemented in our analysis with data from other instruments on the same spacecraft, in particular that of the Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer.Key results of our investigation are: (a) Continuous energy release is needed to substain the increase of the emission through the rising phase of the flare, before and after the impulsive phase in hard X-rays. The energy release is characterized by the production of hot (5 × 107 T 1.5 × 108 K) thermal regions within the flare loop structures. (b) The observational parameters characterizing the impulsive burst show that it is most likely associated with non-thermal processes (particle acceleration). (c) The continuous energy release is associated with strong chromospheric evaporation, as evidenced in the spectral line behavior determined from the Bent Crystal Spectrometer data. Both processes seem to stop just before flare maximum, and the subsequent evolution is most likely governed by the radiative cooling of the flare plasma. 相似文献