A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.     

Estimation of snow water equivalent using microwave radiometry over Arctic first‐year sea ice

The magnitude and spatial distribution of snow on sea ice are both integral components of the ocean–sea‐ice–atmosphere system. Although there exists a number of algorithms to estimate the snow water equivalent (SWE) on terrestrial surfaces, to date there is no precise method to estimate SWE on sea ice. Physical snow properties and in situ microwave radiometry at 19, 37 and 85 GHz, V and H polarization were collected for a 10‐day period over 20 first‐year sea ice sites. We present and compare the in situ physical, electrical and microwave emission properties of snow over smooth Arctic first‐year sea ice for 19 of the 20 sites sampled. Physical processes creating the observed vertical patterns in the physical and electrical properties are discussed. An algorithm is then developed from the relationship between the SWE and the brightness temperature measured at 37 GHz (55°) H polarization and the air temperature. The multiple regression between these variables is able to account for over 90% of the variability in the measured SWE. This algorithm is validated with a small in situ data set collected during the 1999 field experiment. We then compare our data against the NASA snow thickness algorithm, designed as part of the NASA Earth Enterprise Program. The results indicated a lack of agreement between the NASA algorithm and the algorithm developed here. This lack of agreement is attributed to differences in scale between the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and surface radiometers and to differences in the Antarctic versus Arctic snow physical and electrical properties. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Confirmation of a meteoritic component in impact‐melt rocks of the Chesapeake Bay impact structure,Virginia, USA—Evidence from osmium isotopic and PGE systematics

Abstract— The osmium isotope ratios and platinum‐group element (PGE) concentrations of impact‐melt rocks in the Chesapeake Bay impact structure were determined. The impact‐melt rocks come from the cored part of a lower‐crater section of suevitic crystalline‐clast breccia in an 823 m scientific test hole over the central uplift at Cape Charles, Virginia. The ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios of impact‐melt rocks range from 0.151 to 0.518. The rhenium and platinum‐group element (PGE) concentrations of these rocks are 30–270x higher than concentrations in basement gneiss, and together with the osmium isotopes indicate a substantial meteoritic component in some impact‐melt rocks. Because the PGE abundances in the impact‐melt rocks are dominated by the target materials, interelemental ratios of the impact‐melt rocks are highly variable and nonchondritic. The chemical nature of the projectile for the Chesapeake Bay impact structure cannot be constrained at this time. Model mixing calculations between chondritic and crustal components suggest that most impact‐melt rocks include a bulk meteoritic component of 0.01–0.1% by mass. Several impact‐melt rocks with lowest initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios and the highest osmium concentrations could have been produced by additions of 0.1%–0.2% of a meteoritic component. In these samples, as much as 70% of the total Os may be of meteoritic origin. At the calculated proportions of a meteoritic component (0.01–0.1% by mass), no mixtures of the investigated target rocks and sediments can reproduce the observed PGE abundances of the impact‐melt rocks, suggesting that other PGE enrichment processes operated along with the meteoritic contamination. Possible explanations are 1) participation of unsampled target materials with high PGE abundances in the impact‐melt rocks, and 2) variable fractionations of PGE during syn‐ to post‐impact events.     

Spatial heterogeneity of epibenthos on artificial reefs: fouling communities in the early stages of colonization on an East Australian shipwreck

Artificial reefs are spatially complex habitats and serve as good model systems to study patterns of community succession and the response of epibiota to environmental clines over small spatial scales. Here, we quantified spatial heterogeneity in community composition and diversity of fouling communities across a number of environmental gradients that included water depth, surface orientation of habitats, exposure to currents, and shelter. Assemblage structure was quantified by spatially replicated photo transects on a recently scuttled large navy ship off the East Australian coast, lying in 27 m of water. A rich assemblage of epifauna had colonized the wreck within a year, dominated by barnacles, sponges and bryozoans. Community structure varied significantly over small spatial scales of meters to tens of meters. Depth, surface orientation and exposure were the major environmental drivers. Assemblages were substantially less diverse and abundant on the deepest (23 m near the seafloor) part of the hull with residual antifouling paint, on sheltered surfaces inside the wreck, and on the sediment‐laden horizontal surfaces. Overall, the wrecks’ habitat complexity corresponds with small‐scale heterogeneity in the fouling communities. This study supports the notion that wrecks enhance local diversity and biomass within the habitat mosaic of their location, and habitat complexity may be an important mechanism for this, as demonstrated by the large spatial variability in the assemblages documented here.     

Local buckling strength of ring stiffened cylindrical shells under external pressure

The paper presents a non-linear buckling analysis of ring stiffened cylindrical shells subject to external pressure. The collapse pressure is calculated by assuming failure to occur when the material reaches a plastic stress state defined by the Ilyushin criterion. It is shown in the paper that use of the non-linear theory can reduce the estimated first yield by up to 25% in comparison to the linear buckling analysis used up to now. Comparison of predicted failure loads are in good agreement with the lower bound of test results.     

The dynamic behaviour of a river-dominated tidal inlet, River Murray, Australia

Australia's largest river, the River Murray, discharges to the southern ocean through a coastal lagoon and river-dominated tidal inlet. Increased water extractions upstream for irrigation have led to significantly reduced flows at the mouth and, as a result, the area is undergoing rapid change, particularly with regard to the rate at which sediment is being transported into the lagoon. Based on detailed and accurate bathymetric surveys it has been possible to estimate that the rate of lagoon in-filling is of the order of 100,000 m³ per year for the period June 2000 to May 2003, although the actual rate shows significant year to year variability. Dredging of the lagoon commenced in 2000 in an attempt to reverse the trend.In an effort to understand the behaviour of the inlet a one-dimensional numerical model of the inlet has been developed. The model extends the original of van de Kreeke by including a dynamic inlet throat area based on predicted river flows and a sediment transport module to predict the resulting net sediment transport. Comparisons with water level data collected on both the ocean and lagoon sides of the mouth have shown that the model is able to predict the attenuation and lag of the tidal signal reasonably well. The sediment transport model was based on predicted sediment concentrations in the surf zone and was found to predict the rate of sediment in-filling to an acceptable level of accuracy. It is envisaged that the model will be a useful management tool, especially since it is possible to manipulate river discharges to the mouth.     

Cross-shelf exchange in a model of the Ross Sea circulation and biogeochemistry

Transport of warm, nutrient-rich Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto Antarctic continental shelves and coastal seas has important effects on physical and biological processes. The present study investigates the locations of this transport and its dynamics in the Ross Sea with a high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model. The model circulation is forced by daily wind stress along with heat and salt fluxes calculated from atmospheric climatologies by bulk formulae. All surface fluxes are modified by an imposed climatological ice cover. Waters under the Ross Ice Shelf are not included explicitly, but their effect on temperature and salinity is imposed in a buffer zone at the southern end of the model domain. A simple nutrient uptake is calculated based on the climatological chlorophyll distribution and Monod uptake kinetics.Model circulation is strongly affected by bottom topography, due to weak stratification, and agrees with schematics of the general flow and long-term current measurements except near the southern boundary. The sea-surface temperature is similar to satellite estimates except that the warmest simulated temperatures are slightly higher than observations. There is a significant correlation between the curvature of the shelf break and the transport across the shelf break. A momentum term balance shows that momentum advection helps to force flow across the shelf break in specific locations due to the curvature of the bathymetry (that is, the isobaths curve in front of the flow). For the model to create a strong intrusion of CDW onto the shelf, it appears two mechanisms are necessary. First, CDW is driven onto the shelf at least partially due to momentum advection and the curvature of the shelf break; then, the general circulation on the shelf takes the CDW into the interior.