A numerical model for Type II supernovae — The collapse stage

We use the following numerical model for the collapse stage of a Type II supernova of 15 M_⊙. Our electron capture rate includes the effects of the inverse reaction and the neutron-proton mass difference. This decreases the electron density at the collapse stage and led to rather large values of the maximum inward velocity and of the corresponding mass (Umax = 3.06 × 10⁹cm/s, Mmax=0.76 M_⊙). These larger values are more favourable for the propagation of shock after the rebounce and the triggering-off of a Type-II supernova explosion. For neutrino transport, we use a leakage model and an equilibrium diffusion model, respectively, for the thin and thick stages and a grey atmosphere model to assess the effect of neutrino precipitation on the collapse. We found this effect to be small, the energy precipitation to be not more than 10^?5 the neutrino energy loss and the momentum precipitation not more than 10^?6 the gravitational acceleration.     

2003年淮河流域大水期间体积降水量的研究

针对 2 0 0 3年梅雨期淮河流域大水提出了体积降水量的概念及其计算方法 ,在计算出淮河流域和其各子流域逐日和总体积降水量的基础上 ,将体积降水量与水文站的水位和流量进行了对比分析。结果表明 :水位对累计体积降水量有较好的即时响应 ,流量对体积降水量有较好的延迟响应。另外 ,讨论了流域体积降水量的预报问题 ,用国内外数值天气预报产品和中央气象台指导预报产品 ,进行了流域体积降水量预报试验 ,并对预报结果进行了检验分析。结果表明 :在目前天气预报水平条件下 ,利用数值天气预报和中央气象台业务预报产品制作体积降水量是可行的 ,能够延长洪水预报的预见期 ;而且 ,数值天气预报产品在预报体积降水量方面有明显的优势 ,因此可以直接利用数值天气预报产品进行体积降水量的客观预报 ,为防汛工作提供重要的依据。     

安徽铜陵矿集区海底喷流沉积体系的流体包裹体微量元素对比

铜陵矿集区与铜-金(多金属)矿床有关的热液活动主要有两大体系。即与海西期海底喷流沉积有关的热液体系和与矽卡岩矿化有关的燕山期岩浆热液体系。查明这两类热液体系的流体包裹体特征对区域找矿和矿床成因研究都有实际意义。在包裹体岩相学研究基础上，应用ICP-MS技术和热爆提取方法，研究了新桥、冬瓜山、峙门口、铜官山、朝山等矿床具代表性的热液石英中流体包裹体的微量元素、稀土元素特征。结果表明，两类热液体系在流体包裹体特征上有较大的区别，在流体的微量元素和稀土元素特征方面也很不相同。海底喷流沉积体系的热液石英中流体包裹体与岩浆热液体系的相比。稀土总量较高，LREE／HREE比值较大，δEu不明显。且Mo／(W Sn)比值较高，反映流体中成矿物质的深源特征；Ga／T1、Rb／Cs大。Zr／Hf低，也不同于岩浆热液体系。     

Correcting method of eddy covariance fluxes over non-flat surfaces and its application in ChinaFLUX

Although Eddy Covariance (EC) technique is one of the best methods for estimating the energy and mass exchanges between underlying surface and atmosphere in micrometeorology, errors and uncertainties still exist without necessary corrections. In this paper, we will focus on the effect of coordinate system on the eddy fluxes. Based on the data observed over four sites (one farmland site, one grassland site and two forest sites), the effects of three coordinate system transforming methods (Double Rotation-DR, Triple Rotation-TR and Planar Fit-PF)on the turbulent fluxes are analyzed. It shows that (i) the corrected fluxes are more or less than the uncorrected fluxes, which is related mainly to the sloping degree of surface, wind speed and wind direction; and (ii) pitch angle has a sinusoidal dependence on wind direction, especially in the regular sloping terrain; and (iii) PF method is something like the simplification of TR or DR,and there are not obvious distinctions in correction in sloping grassland and flat farmland, but PF method is not suitable for uneven and irregular forest sites.     

预测有效波高的深度学习模型研究

研究基于RNN、LSTM、GRU深度学习模型,针对NOAA浮标数据集中的44013、44014、44017浮标的数据,通过斯皮尔曼相关性分析提高模型预测效果。实验结果表明,在进行相关性分析后,S-RNN、S-LSTM、 S-GRU的预测效果均比原始RNN、LSTM、GRU模型预测效果好。此外,提出一种基于LSTM的LSTM-Attention 波高预测模型,并进行相关实验,量化LSTM-Attention模型的预测效果,实验结果表明LSTM-Attention模型有更好的预测效果。为评估模型的泛化能力,研究还提出了一种采用邻近浮标数据进行学习,预测浮标缺失数据的方 法。实验结果表明,该方法的预测精度可以达到97.93%。本研究为海浪预测提供了新的方法和思路,也为未来深 度学习模型在海浪预测中的应用提供了参考。     

可解释性长短期记忆模型用于预测湖泊总磷浓度变化

对湖泊总磷的变化预测和来源识别对水资源调度和流域生态治理有着重要的意义,然而复杂的生化反应和水动力条件导致的非平稳性给湖泊总磷浓度的准确预测带来极大的困难。为克服这一挑战,本文引入了基于加权回归的季节趋势分解(seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess,STL)技术和夏普利加法(SHapley additive exPlanations,SHAP)结合长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory neural network,LSTM)和门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)构建了一个可解释的预测框架,以增强对湖泊总磷浓度演变的预测并提高其可解释性。研究表明:(1)在骆马湖总磷浓度的预测中,该框架拥有较好的预报精度(R²=0.878),优于LSTM和卷积长短期记忆模型(convolutional neural networks and long short term memory network,CNN-LSTM)。当预测时间步长增加到8 h时,该框架有效提高了总磷浓度的预测精度,平均相对误差和均方根误差分别降低了47.1%和33.3%。从预测趋势来看,骆马湖在汛期的总磷平均浓度为0.158 mg/L,相较于非汛期的平均浓度,增加了202.1%。(2)运河来水是骆马湖总磷浓度最重要的影响因素,贡献权重为60.0%,并且不同断面(三湾、三场)的污染源受水动力、气象等因素的影响存在显著的时空差异。本文凸显了神经网络模型在预警水体污染方面的可实施性,并且为提高传统神经网络的学习能力和可解释性的开发与验证提供了重要方向。     

冬春季切变类冰雹发生条件的对比分析

本文以 1996年 12月 31日和 1981年 5月 1日为例 ,对冬、春季节发生在江苏的较大范围的切变类冰雹天气过程作了对比分析。结果指出 ,无论冬季或春季当高原东部有深槽东移 ,冷暖空气在江淮地区交汇 ,地面抬升系统为暖切 ,并有大气层结不稳定 (Δθse( 50 0 - 850 ) <0℃ =中心和较强的风向和风速垂直切变、85 0hPa西南急流轴、85 0hPa最大水汽通量轴线、5 0 0和 85 0hPa正涡度中心等相配置时 ,就可能导致江苏地区较大范围强对流天气的发生。     

四川九寨黄龙机场高填方地基变形三维动力分析

四川九寨黄龙机场具有高填方、高地震烈度、高海拔等三高的特点,高填方体地基在地震作用下的动力稳定与变形问题成为该机场需着重考虑的主要工程地质问题之一。在对目前各种动力分析方法研究的基础上,选用快速拉格郎日差分分析(FLAC)程序,对该机场元山子沟段高填方地基在地震作用下的变形规律进行了系统地研究,获得了一些有实际意义的认识。     

Experimental research on the effect of slope morphology on bank collapse in mountain reservoir

Farmers along the Amazon River each year face multiple natural hazards that threaten crop production and limit the potential for agricultural development of the expansive floodplain and active channel. In this paper we report the findings of a study of natural hazard-related risk associated with rice production on silt bars in the active channel of the Amazon River near Iquitos, Peru. Data were gathered in four rice producing communities in 2014 using household surveys (n = 83 households), focus group discussions, surveying of land elevations along the Amazon River, and interpretation of remote sensing imagery. The probability, extent, and severity of rice crop shortfalls were estimated for recent production years and the economic losses to farming households were also assessed. Our findings point to a very high risk of crop shortfalls due to natural hazards, suggesting that a good year brings rice farmers bounty and a bad year, near penury. River stage reversals (repiquetes) and edaphic conditions were found to be more problematic than the often cited hazard of high and/or early floods. Also surprisingly, farmers’ perceptions of hazards and risk diverged markedly from actual shortfalls experienced during the production years studied. Our results provide the first quantitative estimates of risk due to the multiple natural hazards along the Amazon River and point to the need to assist lowland farmers with risk mitigation so as to unlock the considerable potential of Amazon floodlands for agricultural production.     

铜陵新桥层状菱铁矿成因的矿物学证据及成矿意义

安徽铜陵新桥矿区二叠系栖霞组底部和石炭系黄龙组—船山组之间产出层状、似层状菱铁矿矿层。开展菱铁矿矿层成因研究对于深入剖析区域层控矽卡岩型铜铁矿床成矿机制具有重要意义。本文利用粉晶X射线衍射（XRD）、扫描电镜（SEM）对菱铁矿矿石进行矿物学研究,结果发现菱铁矿矿石主要由菱铁矿、石英、伊利石和有机质等组成,菱铁矿颗粒粒径较小,表面具有成岩自生的自形石英硬模的微结构,SEM原位微区成分分析显示菱铁矿中除了主量元素铁,还含有大量的锰、锌和钙。矿石中存在两种微结构和不同成因的石英：表面具菱铁矿硬模和次生加大结构的碎屑石英;具六方双锥、单锥以及生物成因球形的自生石英。菱铁矿矿石的组成和矿物表面微结构表明其为沉积成因,非岩浆热液起源。富有机质和亚铁的沉积菱铁矿层和沉积胶状黄铁矿层协同作用,可能是铜陵地区乃至长江中下游成矿带层状铜铁矿床层控性重要制约因素,以及可能作为燕山期中酸岩浆演化的氧化性含铜成矿流体卸载成矿的地球化学还原障。